Hurricane 'vince'

[SnowBear]

To be honest I think Vince will struggle to make an Iberian landfall, looking at the Sat loop this morning and its turned due east as that front approaches across the Atlantic.

To me anyway looking more like a North Africa landfall

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Edited October 10, 2005 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

There is now a definite turn South East towards Morocco as that Atlantic front advances ever eastwards.

[crimsone]

If the finale image on that sat loop is anything to go by, it's fallen apart suddenly. How odd.

[PersianPaladin]

If the finale image on that sat loop is anything to go by, it's fallen apart suddenly. How odd.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Strange....i thought SST's in the southern med are about 24-25C....enough to keep it going?

[SnowBear]

Strange....i thought SST's in the southern med are about 24-25C....enough to keep it going?

Could possibly if it makes straight for the Straits of Gibralta, seems to be dissapating pretty quickly now though.

[Gray-Wolf]

Strange....i thought SST's in the southern med are about 24-25C....enough to keep it going?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not supposed to but there he is! Either a very dramatic eye wall replacement cycle at the moment or the shear has 'capped it off' and it's turning back into a depression. Any firmer on possible tracks for his remains?

[Mondy]

Yep, looks like its fallen apart. Or to be more precise, the cold front has absorbed Vince. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ve/javawv2.html

[crimsone]

It's fallen apart. NHC 5am EDT advisory downgrades it to a tropical storm with further weakening expected. It was pretty while it lasted. I think you might be right about that shear.

Edited October 10, 2005 by crimsone

[Arrows]

So, will the left overs track our way then? If so then when roughly?

[SnowBear]

I would say the remnants will make landfall somewhere North Africa, possibly Southern Spain/ Gibralta, thats if its not completely absorbed and the indentity dissappeared before then by the front thats overrunning it.

[The PIT]

So, will the left overs track our way then? If so then when roughly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here you go.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.c...&hour=Animation

Play the sequence. Heavy rain is the word though.

[Arrows]

What I have thought though is as we are hot for this time of year then maybe that will intensify the low and cause it to produce heavy winds like the 87 storm did?

heres a link for more info and pics http://www.quehubo.com/eng/vince/vince_gallery_2.php

Edited October 10, 2005 by theredarrows

[SnowBear]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Last few frames, the high level convection clouds have been sheared off by the fast approaching front and exposed the low level circulation, still quite an impressive little system, but, look where Vince is heading at the moment, directly for the Straits of Gibralta. If it can outrun the front and slip through those Straits and into the warmer waters of the Med, could be interesting!!

Edited October 10, 2005 by SnowBear

[Gray-Wolf]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Last few frames, the high level convection clouds have been sheared off by the fast approaching front and exposed the low level circulation, still quite an impressive little system, but, look where Vince is heading at the moment, directly for the Straits of Gibralta. If it can outrun the front and slip through those Straits and into the warmer waters of the Med, could be interesting!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The rest of the cloud seems the be 'channeling' into them so why not?. I wonder how far the 'front' progresses into the med. before grinding to a halt though? Yes a restructure in the med,that'd be good to see!!

[Paranoid]

So there's no chance of it re-developing and coming to our shores then?

[Gray-Wolf]

So there's no chance of it re-developing and coming to our shores then?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I should never have 'formed' in the first place......still we live and learn now don't we???

No, I think it's destined to be, or already is, absorbed by the front sweeping East (but whats left will run up the front like a yoyo on a string!)

Edited October 10, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

I should never have 'formed' in the first place......still we live and learn now don't we???

No, I think it's destined to be, or already is, absorbed by the front sweeping East (but whats left will run up the front like a yoyo on a string!)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If this thing did get into the med and reform, where would i get a satellite loop to watch it ?

[MP-R]

Wasn't there a huge depression that originiated from a tropical storm in mid-October 2002. I seem to remember hours of torrential rain and gales. Sunday 13th adn Monday 14th I think. ANyone record that?

[Mondy]

LOW 1002 EX-VINCE 35.9N11.6W AT 10/21 UTC, MOVING EASTWARD EXPECTED

36.4N 11W BY 11/00 UTC, THEN 37.5N08W BY 11/06 UTC, THEN FILLING

SLOWLY.

CASABLANCA :

SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7, BUT CYCLONIC 8 OR 9 IN NORTHWEST AT FIRST,

DECREASING GRADUALLY 3 TO 5 LATER. OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT GUSTS.

ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH OR HIGH AT FIRST. THUNDERSQUALLS.

http://www.meteo.fr/marine/naviweb/bulletins/ATL_LARGE.html

[SnowBear]

Lets conclude this one with what really happened to our little friend Hurricane Vince, along with Mondy's post above regarding remnants of Vince, these are the last Public Advisory and Discussions from NOAA.

Public Advisory

000

WTNT33 KNHC 110831

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER  8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

...VINCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SPAIN AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL

WEATHER OFFICES ON THE REMNANTS OF VINCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 7.1 WEST OR ALONG THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN NEAR HUELVA.  VINCE IS THE FIRST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH

...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING

THE CENTER OF VINCE FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS VINCE CONTINUES TO LOSE

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH

VINCE AND ITS REMNANTS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...37.2 N...  7.1 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Discussion

000

WTNT43 KNHC 110829

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...

WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE

EAST OF THE CENTER.  NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT

00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE

SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT.  A

QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...

BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE

QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED.  VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED

TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY.  WITH NO DATA T

NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY

LONGER IS UNWARRANTED.  AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW

OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANTS OF VINCE

SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR

ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.  BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF

PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE

LANDFALL IN SPAIN. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Nick F]

The weakening Vince has made landfall over SW Portugal this morning, this is what estofex have to say:

The weakening tropical storm Vince that made landfall in southern Portugal/Spain bears almost no convective activity with it, but as 00Z Gibraltar shows, shear and helicity profiles can be much more impressive ahead of this system than models have picked up - for example, GFS has only 15 m/s deep layer shear while this sounding shows 25 m/s. Any storm that is able to form near this cyclone, especially the northeast quadrant, can profit of the shear environment and become a supercell with the main risk of severe winds and a tornado.

http://web0.webbox793.server-home.net/outl...10110847cf.html

[SnowBear]

Thank you Nick <_< I hadnt even thought of taking a peek at estofex this morning lol

It will be interesting to see if any energy from Vince can get into the Med and make use of the warm water there, if nothing else it is bringing much needed rain to the area after this years droughts!