Waiting For Wilma!

[Gray-Wolf]

Do you think we need a new thread or will 'future developments' do?

Is there something forming East of, and below Porto Rico? I know that the messy 22L and it's phantom 'upper level low' were ruling the roost there for a few days but things look a lot more settled now with nothing (upper or lower) dragging things about.

Also, just off Yucatan (east) there seems to be a lot of convection at the mo, anything doing there?

[Roo]

Wilma would be a record wouldn't it? Or is that when it gets to Alpha?

[Gray-Wolf]

Wilma would be a record wouldn't it? Or is that when it gets to Alpha?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think they've had as many in a season before (1933?) but they didn't name them back then so it'd be the 'first' time we've run out of names and had to go all Greek

[SnowBear]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

3 areas I am watching for now

5N - 35W

10N - 40-50W

10N - 55W

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/xxirmet7n.GIF

Also the area just off Africa , a couple of areas there.

5-8N - 20-30W

5-8N - 0-10W

I have no doubts we will see Wilma, and beyond.

Wilma would be a record wouldn't it? Or is that when it gets to Alpha?

It would be a record yes, at the moment I believe we equal the number of named storms in a year, and when it gets to Alpha etc, it will be the first time the Greek Alphabet has had to be used. Remember though our records of hurricanes etc are only accurate for 35 years, back further and the margins of error increase.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for those SnowBear! What about that convection appearing off the Texas coast (28n,96w) if it trawls out into the gulf?

[SnowBear]

Hmmm, just been looking at the loops for that one GW, I tend to think that will track NE along with the weather system thats further inland in TX etc.

Keep watch on Vince, its regenerated slightly I think as it near the Straits of Gibralta, certainly some new convection there.

[Mondy]

97L near Puerto Rico (Wilma soon??)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE FLASH

FLOOD WARNING IN AREA...UNTIL 500 PM

* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO

DORADO

CANOVANAS

CAROLINA

COROZAL

JUNCOS

GURABO

LUQUILLO

NAGUABO

SAN JUAN

TOA ALTA

TRUJILLO ALTO

VEGA ALTA

LAS PIEDRAS

BAYAMON

HUMACAO

GUAYNABO

CATANO

LOIZA

RIO GRANDE

TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 130 PM AST...A RIVER LEVEL GAUGE IN GURABO INDICATED THAT THE

RIO GURABO IN GURABO IS OUT OF ITS BANKS. HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDS

FROM VEGA ALTA NORTHEAST TO LOIZA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3

INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE

IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RAPID RISES IN

RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING

WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1838 6636 1844 6622 1849 6596 1839 6592

1836 6577 1830 6571 1828 6577 1820 6571

1817 6580 1817 6585 1828 6604 1836 6610

1833 6629

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

Edited October 10, 2005 by Mondy

[Methuselah]

Apologies peeps...

I thought this was about the Flintstones!

[Gray-Wolf]

Apologies peeps...  

I thought this was about the Flintstones!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah, I'd go with Betty (but I'd be thinking of Wilma all along!)

Edited October 10, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[smich]

Great idea to have a thread devoted to the imminent(?!) Wilma, Graywolf

That upper level low is really dominating things at the moment. It's massive and seems to have been almost stationary for a week now. I would say we're gonna have to wait a week or so.

But with events like Vince occuring, nothing surprises me any more. What a beautiful little Hurricane that was.

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm, just been looking at the loops for that one GW, I tend to think that will track NE along with the weather system thats further inland in TX etc.

Keep watch on Vince, its regenerated slightly I think as it near the Straits of Gibralta, certainly some new convection there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah, and a large area of convection just in front of that already spilling into the med (do I see circulation banding in it?) over southern Spain and Algeria.

I take it the Texan 'burst' is the tale end of the 'Colorado winter storm' event, though it looks to have 'torn free' of the rest of the frontal band now.

Ah Mr Tattum, you jolly japer you!!!!

has anyone got a link to the NAOO sat. over the med??

Edited October 10, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

That upper level low is really dominating things at the moment. It's massive and seems to have been almost stationary for a week now. I would say we're gonna have to wait a week or so.

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Smich,

If only a little more would take place lower down!!! there are some clouds 'popping up' but you'd need a lot more convection than that to get the ball rolling (I think) I'm still watching the mass going up to the East/South of Peurto Rico in the hope that it'll take off soon.

[smich]

Hi Smich,

If only a little more would take place lower down!!! there are some clouds 'popping up' but you'd need a lot more convection than that to get the ball rolling (I think) I'm still watching the mass going up to the East/South of Peurto Rico in the hope that it'll take off soon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Come to think of it, it's bit like chess isn't it?! We're trying to think ahead - what's going to cause the conditions that will shift the low out of the way and create nice calm air for the next tropical wave to develop in! (phew! )

I noticed an invest recently (might have been TD22 actually) that was threatening to track towards NYC, and looking at the Big Apple's Hurricane history, it seems to have suffered a comparatively large number of Cat 3 hits. Unlikely though it may seem, the season might produce a final surprise if the SST's are high enough.

I'm intigued at what causes the enormous feature at about 92 hr in this animation. (Don't forget it's wave heights and direction, not temperature):

http://facs.scripps.edu/images/euranim.gif

Smich

Edited October 10, 2005 by smich

[Mondy]

The mass E of Puerto Rico is taking off, but northerly direction. Good or bad depending on which way you look at it. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

All forecast models send the system (still say it's 97L) north too.

But, as smilch says, TD 22 is still there or thereabouts (even although the nhc dismissed it 48 hours ago) and on this loop http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html i wouldn't be surprised to see a more NW flow soon...

As usual a guessing game, but good all the same

[smich]

The mass E of Puerto Rico is taking off, but northerly direction. Good or bad depending on which way you look at it. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

All forecast models send the system (still say it's 97L) north too.

But, as smilch says, TD 22 is still there or thereabouts (even although the nhc dismissed it 48 hours ago) and on this loop http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html i wouldn't be surprised to see a more NW flow soon...

As usual a guessing game, but good all the same :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually Mond, I'm hoping TD22 gets the hell out of the way to let something more interesting in!

btw, LOL @ "Smilch" - I'm tempted to use that as my avatar from now on! <_<

Smich

[Mondy]

<_< smilch??

:o

[derbyshire_lad]

there looks quite alot of activity in the tropical areas of africa that could spell bad news for america if one of these form as a hurrican and smash into new orleans galveston etc.

[SnowBear]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

10N - 35W <_<

[smich]

Well, this loop tells the story - an extensive "wall" of convection that's been embedded for at least a week...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

...what's the opposite of ramping?

This needs to dissipate, I think, before any TD's can occur in the important areas...

An interesting "quiet" spell (Hurricane - wise), but here could be asting in the tail yet. Derbyshire Lad mentions waves forming in Africa:

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/africa_IR.html

There's plenty on the way...

Smich

[matmilne]

as long as that wall clears out of the way.

first

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Guys (an'Gals),

I think we still need to watch 25n,65w as that 'northerly' movement of upper and lower level air seems to be 'faltering' allowing a certain amount of calm for the big storms that seem to be forming there(25n,65w) to go up. Lter today (late afternoon there) I will be watching with interest!!

[crimsone]

What's going on with that spiral at about Lat 49° Long: -39°?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-vis-loop.html

Everything looks pretty calm down by the gulf of mexico to me. Lots of cloud over florida making it's way into the gulf though. Is it just me or does the weather look like it's 'log-jammed' down there? (mine is an uneducated view on this. I'm just guessing, but found this loop interesting.)

edit: Confirmed...

170

ABNT20 KNHC 121513

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL

AMERICA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THEN

NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS

OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND ANY DEVELOPMENT...IF

ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE

FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS

...PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

Plus, an interesting collection of satellite loops and stills

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satell...e_animated.html

Edited October 12, 2005 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

How long has the Carribean been throwing up that plume now????

It was already starting to feed moisture north when Rita formed (I posted about it pushing moisture up the Eastern side of her then) and hasn't ceased since. The rains we have had recently (and more to come later) are all part of this 'train of cloud' out of the Carribean.

Is this a seasonal norm or is this a rarer phenomenom? All the energy that could be forming Hurricanes seems to be going into maintaining this plume and shifting a lot of heat/moisture North (up the eastern seaboard and across South Greenland and on to Europe) effectively keeping things to dynamic to allow the formation of Hurricanes (upper level shear?).

Anyone any views?

[Mondy]

updated stuff Edited October 13, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Just wondering if someone could confirm or deny this, because I'm not all that experienced in it.

does the updated info demonstrate favourable conditions for a TS to develop mid atlantic/carribean in the next day or two?

Edited October 13, 2005 by crimsone