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Waiting For Wilma!

Gray-Wolf
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted

Hi mate. :)

All the tropical waves around mid Atlantic/Caribbean area have no associated deep convection. In a word, no.

Not at the moment, but doesn't mean to say as i type this something is on the go :(

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted

OK. Thanks :(

I have no idea why, but where the plume from the Carribean meets the tail of the north atlantic low, I seem to be mesmerised by the 'vacuum' (of sorts) left in the 'wake' behind it, next to florida and north of the islands. I seem to be just as fascinated by harmless swirling cloud masses as I am by tropical storms. lol

Back on topic, is there a method for detecting convection on satelite imagery or does it require other data?

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Yea i wonder will we have to use the new names things have slowed down pretty

considerably..

Im sure we'll see Wilma but whether we see Alpha or Beta this year may be slightly

more uncertain than previously thought..

It's mid October now with really only 3 weeks of viable time to go..

It could just fizzle out short??

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smich Rookie

smich

Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London
Posted

Finally, things are looking more promising - that huge mass of convection is moving away to the NE, and Invest 98L looks promising...

...another system to develop "on site"? I don't see much coming of the wave SW of the Cape Verde islands.

btw Graywolf, I was very amused to see Bilz query your use of "quotation marks" lol I'm exactly the same - when I was a kid I thought it was cool to make your sentences go on forever - now I'm terrible for using hyphens!

Smich

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted (edited)
I'm sure I've seen that map somewhere before  <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OK - my mistake. That comment didn't come accross quite as I indended it to. It was supposed to be a humorous way of asking what the map was about and questioning it's date. (me being the the one who knows little about hurricanes :) ).

Nevermind. A quick PM later and it's all cleared up (thanks :D:) ).

OK, Back on subject, would it be fair to assume that the map is of a storm in July that originated in the same place or something similar?

or does the url posted on a forum on 11/07/2005...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_98.gif

...point to a constantly changing image, with storm_98 being a name for a particular prediction (something like that anyway!)?

Edited by crimsone
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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted (edited)

Sure looks like we have some activity again after a real lull in events.

That old block has hung around for some time and stifled many areas which had potential. Which for the guys over there is great as it has given them a welcoming breather!

Think I will see what happens in the next 24 hours on it before making too many comments on possible tracks etc. The are many ways this could go for now. Initial thoughts are though, Southern Florida maybe.

Edited by SnowBear
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED

SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE

CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT

OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE

SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

That's Wilma! Recon going in suggests to me a storm is a brewing..

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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted

Many of the links we post do have changing content Crimsone, some refresh while you are on the page even, especially sat loops and images. :)

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted

:D That's the nature of weather I guess! Once again, I do apologise for my bad choice of words.

I still think we're still in for at least a fair chance of seein Alpha though. 3 weeks isn't long, but two Cat 5's managed to form and follow roughly the same path in the space of three weeks (Rita and Katrina). With that in mind, there's always chance :)

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Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Author
Posted

Bloody typical, the one day I'm forced from my P.C. (bloody women)and the bit I've been watching finaly starts to go off!!! :D At least we could have an interesting weekend ahead, it's finally just sittin' there building and not getting draged all over the place. From the previous posts it seems that it's all stable enough around there for it to grow unfettered. How much energy is still out there so late on? I do hope we'll get to find out (and it not have a humanitarian price tag on it if it does!) :)

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted
How much energy is still out there so late on? I do hope we'll get to find out (and it not have a humanitarian price tag on it if it does!) :)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll be happy if it just gets a name. I think that anything that forms in the gulf is going to cross swords with civilisation at some point. I have a feeling that there's plenty of energy in that water though. To me it's more a question of what the upper levels allow.

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Hurricane Debby Enthusiast

Hurricane Debby

Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
Posted

Can anyone tell me when the hurricane season is officially over ?Is it the beginning or end of November ? And has it ever run over ?

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted (edited)
from http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

sorry. the top map on the link is the minimum potential pressure. I posted it in response to the question of how much energy is left in the area.

The boundries on the map are the max potential temperature. Both of these maps are curently a day old, and the area where the current TD is forming is given a minimum potential pressure of 880 mb over seas of 28-29 Celcius, so if the upper level conditions are right, a storm could potentially be as powerful as any time earlier this year.

Not trying to teach you to suck eggs here by the way. I'm just explaining what I meant by potential.

Edited by crimsone
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londonsnow Rookie

londonsnow

Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds
Posted
sorry. the top map on the link is the minimum potential pressure. I posted it in response to the question of how much energy is left in the area.

The boundries on the map are the max potential. Both of these maps are curently a day old, and the area where the current TD is forming is given a minimum potential pressure of 880 mb over seas of 28-29 Celcius, so if the upper level conditions are right, a storm could potentially be as powerful as any time earlier this year.

Not trying to teach you to suck eggs here by the way. I'm just explaining what I meant by potential.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cheers for that crimsone. well maybe wilma will be the next/last big one for this season. we'll see.....LS

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted
cheers for that crimsone. well maybe wilma will be the next/last big one for this season. we'll see.....LS

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

he he. I meant max potential temperature on those boundries. (late night is getting the better of me I think. lol)

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