Waiting For Wilma!

[crimsone]

I've been looking for the models, but can't seem to find them. Any chance of a link, or is it a subscription service?

[Mondy]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

But nothing at the mo...maybe big updates going on

[Gray-Wolf]

Starting to look like it could be a physically large storm with the amount of convection now starting to circulate around it (another 300+miles across by the time it's formed?)I'd be surprised now if recon didn't come back with more than a T.D.!!

[Gray-Wolf]

One thing I did notice, both on the vapour and the visible (more clearly on the vapour) is a really tight spiral of winds moving NE at about 18n 60w. Could this be just displacing it slightly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah ,I've been watching that too! I think it is a surface low and it doesn't seem to have much in the way of central convection (yet) but does seem to be dragging some in on it's SE flank. I tend to think that it will have some influence on the forming storm (even if it is only it's own destruction!)

I for one will be keeping an eye on it!

Edited October 15, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

Mondy, the models seem to be back up

Edited October 15, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

crimsone,thats a upper low by the looks of things spinning away at 18N 60W roughly,although these features need to be kept a eye on just in cas eit does start to work its way towards the surface,at the moment its no threat to either Invest 98 or becoming something tropical itslef.

at the moment Invest 98L is a fairly sizeable wave(more likely TD but oh well) but likely to contract as the system gets stronger as most systems do of this nature,still it has got a fairly decent cyclonic size to it I suppose.

Mondy at a guess it may wel lbe the case that the NHc may be unsure whether to upgrade or not and may be deciding to delay bringing out any models till they have decided.

[Roger J Smith]

The delay may be deliberate as the NHC would have to come up with a five day track and intensity forecast, and with the models basically spread all over the map in a very light steering environment, they might as well buy some time since "Wilma" is not going anywhere very fast in the first 48 hours. I have no gut feelings on where it will go after looking at the available evidence, possibly a rather complex track may evolve, taking it west for a while, then northwest, then northeast across western Cuba towards the Bahamas. Some models show a strong hurricane moving north along the Gulf Stream towards Cape Hatteras by mid to late week.

The remnants of the former subtropical depression near Bermuda have drifted north towards Cape Cod and a very strong low is developing near 40N 68W overnight, bringing near hurricane force wind gusts to coastal Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick by 06z. There is a very slight chance that this storm will gain a name since its centre is still over 26C water as of 18z and a somewhat tropical looking circulation has begun to develop. This seems unlikely but after Wilma, the next named storms will be alpha and beta. I'm not sure what was wrong with Xavier, Yolanda and Zach, because what are they going to do if "alpha" proves to be a monster, retire the name?

[crimsone]

the nhc forecast discussion seems to have been updated in the last half hour/hour or so...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/151107.shtml?

It seems they are still not willing to outright call it a TD yet. However, the recon plane will be ing the area at 1900 UTC apparently. That's about 30 mins away? (usless with international time, me. lol)

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OFF THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W DRIFTING W.  NUMEROUS

STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  A

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SOUTHERN

NICARAGUA.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY. 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM

TODAY AT 1900 UTC.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI.  NUMEROUS

WEATHER MODELS PREDICT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 1005 MB LOW WITH TROUGHS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W

ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION TO

CONVECTION ALREADY MENTIONED...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N

BETWEEN 72W-76W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW

CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN

87W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION

IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N79W...A FAVORABLE

CONDITION FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE.  EXPECT

CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT

FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

Edited October 15, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Hi roger,as for track I'm not sure yet to be honest,models seem fairly well spread although a basic agreement that system will turn north by day-5 and landfall in the U.S.A somewhere.As for where I'm not sure but the set-up at this time of year is prime for another Charley type track.

So if this is right then this system bares alot of wathcing.Esp as GFDL has this system peaking out at 898mbs,which is 1mb higher then what Rita got to but lower then Katrina and would place it in 4th spot in all time strongest.Of course a long way to go yet,esp as it isn't even a comfirmed tropical depression but condtions ahead of this system do seem to be that good that we could get another monster,whats the odds of another Cat-5 as strong as Rita or Katrina,its a outside shot for sure,esp with the way the synoptic pattern is setting-up right now.

recon should be close now,very close and we shouldn't have to wait that long till we find out whether we have a closed circulation or not and if it does,Hello to TD24 and as i said before,I wouldn't be to suprsied to see it having winds of 35kts,maybe even upto 40kts which would mean say hello to Wilma and tieing with with the great season of 1933,then just one more till the big one...Alpha....

Edited October 15, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

Can't be long now! Now 1950 UTC and the nhc frontpage was last updated 1820 UTC. REcon flight should have entered the storm 50 mins ago.

Why do I get the feeling that the NHC knows that people from all over are watching for wilma, and somebody in the office thought it would be funny to keep everyone in suspense? lol

[crimsone]

Tropical Depression TWENTY-FOUR Now confirmed!

Public advisory #1

Forecast Advisory #1

[Gray-Wolf]

NOAA think maybe Hurricane watch later tonight eh??? they seem to think this is going to rapidly form! their 5 day track doesn't look promising either ( my worst fears confirmed!), will it reach some of your predicted Cat 4/5 before it does the oil platforms / Gulf coast??

The other 'swirl' (201n,61w) seems to be making some headway at overcoming the upper level shear and pulling up convection from lower levels (I'm still watching it!) around 15n,60w. The bottom may catch up with the top yet!! :lol:

[kold weather]

This system certainly could be a faster former with good enviromental condtions ahead and some good SST's ahea dof it,it was upgraded all down to the confirmation of a LLC present.

NHC takes this system upto category-2 however I would have thought that beyond the forecast time it would become a major.My ideas in terms of tracks may well be spot on sadly,a western Cuba system making landfall as a strong cat-4/5 crossing Cuba and then heading towards S.Florida.Just a idea but at least for now the NHC agrees.

For the short term TD24 should contniue to head slowly westwards thanks to very weak steering pattern which should stay until a weakness forms,which should finally kick the system foward and also signal the start to moving northwards.

In terms of strength,it should be quite quick to get gonig now its over water again and very stable condtions,despite shear to its north that shouldn't cause to much problems,esp with a otherwise very favorable condtions up ahead,I expect Wilma to be not to far of,esp if we get some good convective bursts.Infact convection isn't quite as good as it was this afternoon although still ample for TD status now we have a confirmed closed circulation.

So track for me would have to be the same one I suspected this afternoon,a Charley kind of track,first landfall a strong cat-4,2nd landfall probably a lower 3,maybe as hig has lower 4,I'm not really to sure about that sort of thng that far out as its a good 180hrs away yet at least.

[crimsone]

JUst looking at the vapour loop again. That low that GreyWolf is watching...

It seems to be getting better and better, but I'm wondering if it could eventually catch up with itself, and if it does, would it stand a chance of becoming tropical either in it's own right, or by interfereing with the cloud mass in the wake of TD24, or do you think it will either pass straight through it, or be destroyed in the cloud on the east side of TD24?

Would be a hell of a suprise if TD 24 fizzled out and part of it became TD 25. It would be even more incredible if we ended up with two tropical systems each taking a different track.

Edited October 15, 2005 by crimsone

[matmilne]

patience gents, wilma's going to tease before she reveals herself.

I take it if she does arrive then this season breaks the record for the number of named systems. (even if the reliable record is only 30 years old)

Edited October 15, 2005 by matmilne

[crimsone]

I can't say I'm confident in this, but I think it's starting to take better shape now centering definately sw of jamaica...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

The system at about 20n60w is looking a little more interesting. It seems to have adopted some of the tail of TD24 Im still interested to see what it does. I know it could be a long long way off, but is there any chance of it becoming TD25 at some point? It seems to be pretty stationary overall, maybe a small movement to the west north-west if anything.

[Mondy]

TD24 still with us this morning and looking strong. http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

GFDL brings Wilma off the Florida coast with 100kts winds: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

So too does the GFS. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

[Gray-Wolf]

That doesn't look good for Florida at all! I'd not expected such a tight turn north (more Texas than Florida) Anyhow we'll see, still has to form and we're talking landfall. I'll now fetch the horses back in front of the cart :lol:

[Mondy]

Hi GW. Yeah the north turn is not surprising. I posted yesterday a chart showing the most likely areas October hurricanes will go. TD24 seems to be doing just this and following the likely track.

Edited October 16, 2005 by Mondy

[kold weather]

Hi everyone,the track I thought would happen yestrerday is loooking a fairly good bet at the moment,infact its very Charley like and GFDL has a very similar strength system at the first landfall but without the rapid strengthening before landfall.

The winds in TD24 has increased thanks to a good convective burst occuring with the system.In terms of strength at its first landfall my first ideas of strength may be a little OTT but I still rekcon a low cat-4 making landfal in far western Cuba(it may even slip through the Yucatan channel as it is slowly(very slowly at that)towards the SW,a turn to the west should begin fairly shortly I reckon but only slowly moving,probably about 2-3mph.

So for now I'll go for a similar track as GFDL as it does seem to have agreement with other global models.

(ps,the turn north is usually always in response to a trough digging down further then they would in summer simply because its Autumn now as Mondy's image shows quite nicely,remmeber Charley last year,that was due a Autumn strength trough digging down and sending the system north-eastwards)

Edited October 16, 2005 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Mondy, I just expect the HP over the Northern Gulf to present more of a problem to it and not give it chance of a turn until late mon/tues am when the HP is forcast to pull back. This would leave td24 trickling along (west) the bottom of the HP and only making it's 'turn' when the high allowed it to. :lol:

[boro_dave]

I am taking my family to Orlando, Florida next thursday for a 2 week holiday, is there much chance that this could come our way?

And if it does, will we just be catching the edge of it, or is there and chance that we could get a direct hit?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

impossible to say at present. odds are massively against a direct hit if you consider that anywhere on the gulf coast could get a direct hit, ie the orlando coastline represents a minor fraction of the gulf coastline as a whole. furthermore wilma has not yet even been classified as a TD so lets not jump the gun

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Having looked at this post and the latest charts that have been posted, I believe I have more reason to be worried, and according to those GFDL and GFS forecasts I think that I am right to be.

[Mondy]

Hi boro_dave. I was thinking about you when i put those links up.

Still a long way to go yet with regards exact path, but at the moment, the models don't make good viewing for you, do they?

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR... LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA

At present TD24 is still heading westwards: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[summer blizzard]

Here is my forecast of track and strength.

I expect Tropical Depression 24 to become Hurricane Wilma on tuesday, and turn later than the national hurricane center is predicting, this is the worst case senario as it will go through the Yucatan Straights, not loosing strength over land, i expect a weak category 5 to make landfall in Florida in one week on monday, at its peak, i expect a central pressure of 885mb and sustained windspeeds of 192mph.

This is a monster, coincidently, the women this season seem to be real b*****s.

Is the other system being commented on classed as a Tropical Wave and if so, once it gains strength, the interactions of the two tropical systems could have the result of sending Wilma on a more southerly track, curving south eastwards before hitting southern Florida and also sending the Tropical Wave (possibly Alpha) on a track similar to Katrina however with landfall further west, possibly in eastern Texas, however i am foccusing on the soon to be Wilma for the moment.

Here is the track which i think they could take if they were to interact with each other.

(note, due to increased shear when the systems are interacting, both systems would not be as strong as they could be)

Edited October 16, 2005 by summer blizzard

[Mondy]

i expect a central pressure of 885mb and sustained windspeeds of 192mph.

<_< You're certainly sticking your neck out there! :lol:

Nah, SB, the only system i'm mentioning is TD24 and it's development.

There are a few areas of LP about, and i suspect tropical waves will form eventually.

Still, i'm keeping my eye on TD24 only just now. I think Grey Wolf is monitoring other activity too <_<