Waiting For Wilma!

[JSW]

Well the NHC have released there next Advisory and it still appears to be a Tropical Depression...

They are expecting it to strengthen into a Tropical Storm during the next 24 hours though...

Barring this one depression tropical activity generally seems quiet. Gone are the days previously in the season when we had multiple storms on the go <_<

What are peroples thoughts on the potential formation of an Alpha is it posible? Conditions generally seem to have deteriated for TS formation...

[Mondy]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT

19n 83w brings it bang on to pass through the Yucatan Peninsula then northwards..

[Hurricane Debby]

I totally agree JSW however I think (and hope !) that the season may go out in style. I think it still has a surprise in store

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Gray-Wolf - what sites / maps are you looking at just out of curiosity ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Other folks links and NHC/NOAA. <_<

Hard to type with a puppy on yer knee. <_<

[crimsone]

This thing is really taking it's time to develop here. Maybe it just doesn't like the idea of being called Wilma. lol

seriously though, what's stopping it from intensifying? is it the wind shear to the NW?

[matmilne]

there are presently 4 active systems in the world at the moment, 2 in the west and east pacific, 1 in the gom and 1 in the indian ocean.

Kirogi off the coast of japan is a cat 4 at the moment.

i find this link good for knowing the number of tropical storms and their positions

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

Edited October 16, 2005 by matmilne

[Hurricane Debby]

Thats a fantastic link - thanks for that

[crimsone]

No strengthening of TD24 yet, but the central pressure is slowly falling. 1001mb at the moment from 1002 a few hours ago. that seems to be the only change as yet.

[crimsone]

I'm not so sure about my last comment now. Looking at the GOES sattelite vapor loop, i'm wondering if that small white spot is an anomaly, or a developing center of the storm. It's nothing really though, and only a couple more hours of sattelite images can say which.

edit: the following vapor sat picture increased the number of white spots from 1 to 7 or so. I guess that's some pretty dense vapour! It's certainly the higest reading the vapor loop has shown on this TD yet.

From Discussion #6

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY CHANGED

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  WHILE OUTER BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED...

SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE

SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION

HAS BEEN PERCOLATING RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY NEAR THE

CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM

TAFB AND SAB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFWA.  WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA

BUOY 42057 ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE

CONVECTION HAVE BEEN NO STRONGER THAN 19 KT DURING THE EVENING...

AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE WINDS ARE TWICE THAT STRONG BENEATH

THE DEEP CONVECTION.  EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT

30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS

AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

I'm also wondering what the upper level wind shear is up to. Why I don't know because my understanding of it is more basic than basic can get, but none the less I'm interested <_<

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...nds/wg8shr.html

Edited October 17, 2005 by crimsone

[Hurricane Debby]

TD 24 is still working on getting its act together in the Caribbean. Apparently the dry air that comes with autumn has kept the depression from intensifying. However, the NHC indicates that this will soon change and we should have this thing named "Wilma" by in the morning. The intensity forecast is not quite as strong as before- with a peak wind of roughly 110 mph over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Of course we know that intensity forecasting is tricky at best for the NHC- something they readily admit. The track has shifted to the west as well- with a potential landfall indicated along the northeast tip of the Yucatan. From there, most global models agree that the cyclone will turn to the east and impact Florida and possibly even the entire East Coast. Needless to say, we will definitely keep close tabs on this developing system. Apparently we will have a good deal of time to watch as things evolve. I will have more on TD 24- probably Wilma- in the morning.

(Courtesy Hurricane Track)

[Somerset Squall]

According to Hurricane city Tropical depression 24 is now Tropical Storm Wilma. (See bottom of page)

[smich]

According to Hurricane city Tropical depression 24 is now Tropical Storm Wilma. (See bottom of page)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Upgraded now by NHC

Bingo!

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

Upgraded now by NHC

Bingo!

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes indeedy, welcome Wilma, the waiting is over, now show us whatcha got!

Seems to be drifting towards land though :blink:

Edited October 17, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[smich]

Think she'll wobble all over the place for a bit - very weak steering at the moment.

All the ingredients are there for another major hurricane though.

Abnormally high SST's also means a possible extension to the season - another EIGHT weeks to go maybe!!!!

Smich

[Mondy]

So we can now call TD24, Wilma! Thus equalling the record number of tropical storms since 1933.

Anyway, she's taken a heck of a turn west since last i saw (approx 10.30pm last night) http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html Just wonder if she'll continue west altogether with no north turn now??

[SnowBear]

I'm looking at the track so far and direction seems to be almost due South for the past few hours, a loop the loop in progress ? It must be said though that often a developing almost stationary TS can have its centre move and jolt around as its getting organised and at that time it can be difficult to discern a true direction. The general low centre has moved very little over past many hours.

Edited October 17, 2005 by SnowBear

[Mondy]

All but one model now takes Wilma westward. The CMC model takes her north with eye passing over central Florida. The GFDL(who are pretty reliable, yet often a little too fericious with there forecasts) takes it west over the Yucatan, then head it north for Texas. Nogaps, GFS and UKM all agree on a west movement:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Cone of uncertainty in this is HUGE! No one knows :blink:

The last frame on this loop shows a definite turn west: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_east_loop-12.html

Edited October 17, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Updated advisory:

...WILMA MOVING ERRATICALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES

... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...BUT A SLOW

MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC

MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES

... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Gray-Wolf]

11n,49w...Alpha?, 19n,58w.... Beta?

[Gray-Wolf]

Do you think we need a new thread or will 'future developments' do?

Also, just off Yucatan (east) there seems to be a lot of convection at the mo, anything doing there?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Strange sense od Deja vu :blink: :o

Wilma's dancing!! two steps forward , one step back!!!

Edited October 17, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[londonsnow]

aside from wilma, strikes me there are other potential developments to the west in the atlantic.

[Gray-Wolf]

aside from wilma, strikes me there are other potential developments to the west in the atlantic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd posted a couple of 'interesting things' above. I don't know whether anything will come of the one further north but the one at 11n, 49w has caught my eye.

[kold weather]

Hi everyone,so Wilma it is a and tad later then was expected but we have done the once thought impossible,we have gone through every letter there is,infact there is still ample time for Alpha there really is,esp in such a active season.

In terms of track,jesus this is going to be as trciky one,not so much for the long terms as it will eventually be picked up by a trough,but what it does now in terms of drifting about in light steering will determine exactly whereit will make landfall in the long run.06z models showed it staying on a westerly course with no real trough digging down however I strongly suspect that the models aren't forecasting the trough to wel lthat will push it northwards,indeeds now the 12z models are coming through they once again are shifting for a W.Florida landfall. That is pretty much where I'd expect it to go.Track looks like taking it throug hthe Yucatan channel atad like Ivan but then being sent further and further to the east by a diving trough making landfall somewhere in Florida,probably central being most at risk at present,meaning possibly Tampa in the lnog run,which could mean a disaster to match Katrina,esp as Tampa is also very vunaerable from storm surge,I the surge would be every bit as dangerous as Katrina's....

In terms of strength,I'm a little unsure of as well to be honest.At current it looks like its undergoing a massive flare-up as its inner core has finally sorted itslef out and with atmospheric condtions being very good and travelling under 30C waters.What this means is it should undergo rapid strengthening into a hurricane over the next 36hrs and probably reach cat-3 by Thursday,at least thats what i suspect providing it doesn't make landfall before then,probably reaching 115kts in the Yucatan channel.Beyond that I'm very unsure but the waters are still plenty warm for a major landfalling in W.Florida I would have thought,probably max it would go in at is a weak 4. So for now Im going with landfall 40 miles north of Tampa at 135mph.

Edited October 17, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but do i detect a right-turn now ie N by E?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

The intense convection to the south of it is playing a major part now.

Wilma has huge scope to rapidly intensify. I would reckon pressure will fall a lot more now too.

[londonsnow]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but do i detect a right-turn now ie N by E?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

The intense convection to the south of it is playing a major part now.

Wilma has huge scope to rapidly intensify. I would reckon pressure will fall a lot more now too.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep, wilma does seem to be getting her act together now. i reckon we'll get a cat 4 out of this one if she slips into the gulf