Wilma

[shuggee]

:lol: Fire away!

[londonsnow]

:lol:   Fire away!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

this is going to be a rollercaster of a thread!!

[londonsnow]

i mean rollercOaster

[Hurricane Debby]

I can't wait !

[frogesque]

Could someone update me please? between going to bed last night and the news on radio this morning she went from Cat 1 poss 2 to a Cat 5! What happened? :lol:

[Mondy]

Ah sh*t there's 2 new wilma threads....

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

All sorted Mondy :lol:

[Mondy]

lol...frogesque..in a nut shell over night she dropped over 100mb to 884 this morning...amazing...check back on the Waiting for Wilma thread for all the news

edit: might be some time now :lol:

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

Mondy, a bomb of 86mb in 12 hours, only matched or beaten by typhoons in the Pacific :lol:

[Snow Queen one]

Can anyone tell me why the eye is so small i haven't seen such a small eye before. :lol:

[londonsnow]

Can anyone tell me why the eye is so small i haven't seen such a small eye before. :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yes i was wondering that too. maybe its the catastrophic pressure drop in such a short time??????

[PersianPaladin]

Mondy, a bomb of 86mb in 12 hours, only matched or beaten by typhoons in the Pacific :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wilma will weaken to a Cat 4 once she passes north-east of Cuba and into slightly cooler SST's west of the coast of Florida. Depending on the development of that trough to the south-west of California; the ridge of high-pressure currently causing divergence in the Gulf may weaken allowing Wilma to head in a more northerly direction. However..i do not foresee that the ridge will weaken greatly, and it may force Wilma to take a north-easterly direction; with only slight weakening from wind shear (due to its proximity) and cooler SST's probably inducing a strong Cat 3 landfall in Florida.

[SnowBear]

Ummmmm, hang on

982mb at 5am eastern yesterday....885mb at 5am today?

97mb in 24 hours?? Can someone verify that?

The record is by Typhoon Forrest

Typhoon Forrest in September 1983 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean deepened by 100 mb (976 to 876 mb) in just under 24 hr (Roger Edson, personal communication). Estimated surface sustained winds increased a maximum of 15 m/s (30 kt, 35 mph) in 6 hr and 44 m/s (85 kt, 98 mph) in one day (from 33 to 77 m/s [65 to 150 kt, 75 to 173 mph]).

In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24 hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s (110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period. And Hurricane Beulah in 1967 underwent a 6.33 mb/hr drop over a six hour period.

Source:http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E2.html

[MAF]

well it has certainly woken a few people up now. Cat 2 to Cat 5 in 12 hours!! lets hope it weakens before landfall. i'm sure the US has been battered enough this season.

[Mondy]

Ok. this thread is for posting links only..it makes it easier to view than scrolling back the pages: http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=21589

Any chance of pinning it Shuggee? That's a good lad :lol:

[MAF]

Ok. this thread is for posting links only..it makes it easier to view than scrolling back the pages: http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=21589

Any chance of pinning it Shuggee? That's a good lad :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ooops sorry mate

blast i've now done it again. sorry no link in this one either

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd asked on the old thread about the influence 'strength' has on steering currents/pessure systems as I have it in my head the over Cat.4 they can 'make their own agenda' as to where and how fast they go. Can someone please 'wise me up' on this?

I had been thinking that Wilma wouldn't hit S. Florida but would end up in the west panhandle area of Florida. I reckon that the pressure will retreat enough to allow Wilma to 'straighten up' her track once out of the Channel and then dive right beyond this.

After watching the continuing devastation in New England /Massachusetts with more rains forcast this weekend the DO NOT need Wilma to 'gatecrash' up there next mid-week. A panhandle landfall would avoid this scenario to.

If anyone has a link to current SSt's in the Gulf I'd much appreciate a looksee ta!

Edited October 19, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

SST

[londonsnow]

I'd asked on the old thread about the influence 'strength' has on steering currents/pessure systems as I have it in my head the over Cat.4 they can 'make their own agenda' as to where and how fast they go. Can someone please 'wise me up' on this?

I had been thinking that Wilma wouldn't hit S. Florida but would end up in the west panhandle area of Florida. I reckon that the pressure will retreat enough to allow Wilma to 'straighten up' her track once out of the Channel and then dive right beyond this.

After watching the continuing devastation in New England /Massachusetts with more rains forcast this weekend the DO NOT need Wilma to 'gatecrash' up there next mid-week. A panhandle landfall would avoid this scenario to.

If anyone has a link to current SSt's in the Gulf I'd much appreciate a looksee ta!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

with regard to steering

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G6.html, is interesting. LS

[PersianPaladin]

SST

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Do you have a more close-up view of the SST's in the gulf and north-west carribean?

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks mondy, doesn't look that much 'cooler' out into the Gulf proper yet the NHC drop her to cat.3 once out of the channel, don't think so myself. I feel she'll stay 4/5 once out into the gulf but will extend her effects outwards as she matures. The worry is the size of surge she is able to generate before her, obviously the bigger/longer she stays out there the worse the picture becomes. I also get the feeling that the NHC are floundering a little with this one (so far as track/strength) so we may be able to assess the situation as well as them at present.

[SnowBear]

Projected wave height model on Wilma links thread GW :lol:

[PersianPaladin]

Thanks mondy, doesn't look that much 'cooler' out into the Gulf proper yet the NHC drop her to cat.3 once out of the channel, don't think so myself. I feel she'll stay 4/5 once out into the gulf but will extend her effects outwards as she matures. The worry is the size of surge she is able to generate before her, obviously the bigger/longer she stays out there the worse the picture becomes. I also get the feeling that the NHC are floundering a little with this one (so far as track/strength) so we may be able to assess the situation as well as them at present.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are u sure?

Given the fact that they have all the monitoring equipment, radio sonde's, aircraft, etc...

:lol:

[Mondy]

Do you have a more close-up view of the SST's in the gulf and north-west carribean?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Try here: http://www.wunderground.com/

[SnowBear]

This may have been posted on the previous thread, but, this is the latest NHC Discussion

000

WTNT44 KNHC 190851

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16 CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE

...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB

AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.

UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN

EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.

THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN

OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS

PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC

BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED

WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.  HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL

BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND

DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS

PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER

VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND

WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE

FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM

POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT

WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS

WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND

ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT

7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET

INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT

SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN

TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES

TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE

LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED

SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.

THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT

RUN.

IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND

THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD

FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS

OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.2N  82.5W   150 KT

12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N  83.4W   150 KT

24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  84.7W   145 KT

36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W   140 KT

48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  85.7W   130 KT

72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N  86.0W   115 KT

96HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  81.0W    90 KT...INLAND

120HR VT     24/0600Z 33.0N  72.0W    70 KT

Unoffical 881mb, to be verified, if it is verified then it Wilma will hold the record for intensification, at 101mb in 24 hours.

Edited October 19, 2005 by SnowBear