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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Anyone got an image/link of the latest predicted track of the storm?

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex

UPDATED: 7:20 AM EDT, October 19, 2005

IT JUST GOT WORSE- PERHAPS THE WORST IN RECORDED HISTORY

If you read my commentary last night, you saw where I said that I did not think this hurricane season could get any worse. Well, it certainly did just that. Wilma is now a category five- the THIRD of this hurricane season. The NHC reports that the air pressure is down to 884 millibars- which would be the lowest air pressure ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane. This would surpass monster hurricane Gilbert in 1988 which had an air pressure of 888 millibars. While all of this is simply extraordinary, it does not mean Wilma will be a category five at landfall. In fact, Wilma should weaken considerably from where it is now as it turns the corner out of the Caribbean and in to the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast calls for Wilma to make landfall near Naples, FL as a possible category three hurricane. Preparations should resume today as time is going to run out before people know it. Keep in mind too that ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA could be at risk for hurricane force winds as Wilma races through. The right-front quadrant in this case will be the southeast quadrant- and all of south Florida would likely be in the southeast quadrant. Later this evening, my colleague Mike Watkins will upload a great video presentation explaining a lot about Wilma and the projected forecast track. This video will be online around 7pm ET. I am about to leave for Naples, FL and will be working with the Collier Co. Emergency Management folks. I will post updates as often as possible here and will broadcast the mission LIVE at our new subscriber site, HurricaneLiveNet.com. My next update will be near 11am ET

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
On that link they forecast a Cat 2 landfall??!?!?

  :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep! Be interested to see how they update that one. Cat2 may be optimistic (or pessimistic), depending where you live :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Anyone got any ideas about possible tidal surge? We are just past a full moon so Spring tide could be an added dimension depending on timing and position of landfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
If this is Wilma....we must've had Betty already!!!

:blink:   :lol:

WILLLLMAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There was a Betsy in 1965 :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Are u sure?

Given the fact that they have all the monitoring equipment, radio sonde's, aircraft, etc...

:blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They have 'underestimated' things thus far and are now having problems (it would appear) getting their data verified, I'm not saying they are not both competant and capable it is just the 'nature of the beast' that seems to have increased their margins of error. As such our Sat. Images give us a near 'real time' opportunity to watch her progress and ,from what i've just read on steering mechanisms/forcast tracks the best model is to not look beyond 6 hrs and project forward motion as a continuation of the previous 6 hrs motion (a thing we can do here).

At present the 144hr FI tracks don't look good for the NE seaboard of the US and the cmc projection doesn't look good for us here, so do you go with the majority decision? (the famous last words of reasurance "there is no Hurricane heading our way!") :lol:

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

When ever a record is broken, the instruments which were used are always checked for calibiration etc afterwards, its a general proceedure I think, to absolutely rule out any possibility of malfunctioning equipment, hence the caution and delay in verification of Wilma's lowest pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

882mb is a confirmed report on the 8am advisory

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE

CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF

MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF

YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.8 WEST OR ABOUT  340 MILES...

550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON

IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE

JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES.  THIS IS THE

LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. 

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15

INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH

THURSDAY.  STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS

NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

870mb is the record for a hurricane / typhoon

This is still a possible record to go, air recon takes off at 10am over there.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Record pressure data

Atlantic:

1. Hurricane Wilma, 882 mb, 2005

2. Hurricane Gilbert, 888 mb, 1988

3. Labor Day Hurricane, 892 mb, 1935

4. Hurricane Rita - 897 mb, 2005

5. Hurricane Allen - 899 mb,1980

6. Hurricane Katrina - 902 mb, 2005

7. Hurricane Camille - 905 mb, 1969

8. Hurricane Mitch - 905 mb, 1998

9. Hurricane Ivan - 910 mb, 2004

10. Hurricane Janet - 914 mb, 1955

Pacific

1. Typhoon Tip - 870 mb, 1979

2. Typhoon Zeb - 872 mb, 1998

3. Typhoon Gay - 872 mb, 1992

4. Typhoon Keith - 872 mb, 1997

5. Typhoon Joan - 872 mb, 1997

6. Typhoon Ivan - 872 mb, 1997

7. Typhoon Forrest - 876 mb, 1983

8. Typhoon Faxai - 879 mb, 2001

9. Typhoon Chaba - 879 mb, 2004

10. Typhoon Yuri - 885 mb, 1991

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

First visible now on view...look at the thing :blink: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edit: Also, this buoy is bang in her way - you have to wonder when it will stop giving out readings (and when it'll break its moorings)!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...6&unit=E&tz=EST

Edited by Mondy
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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

With a pinhole eye like that its going to dance all over the place like a kiddies spinning top.

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