Wilma

[SnowBear]

Mondy's fav RGB image :lol:

Edit:

Lol...Mondy , ya becoming predictable :blink:

Teasing btw :lol:

Edited October 19, 2005 by SnowBear

[MAF]

With a pinhole eye like that its going to dance all over the place like a kiddies spinning top.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep it is really small, does that really have any bearing as to the speed and strength to a hurricane or is it irrelevant.

[SnowBear]

I dont think it really relates, Katrina had similar winds at one point, but a larger eye, it does though I think reflect the speed of intensification, and pressure gradient.

Edited October 19, 2005 by SnowBear

[Mondy]

One live feed is up. Quite funny seeing the forecaster getting dressed! :lol:

Edit: The feed was up - gone again. :blink: .i'll pin it on the other thread for later..

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

[smich]

The latest loops show how she's oscilating (sp?) as she wanders along!

What's the story with eye wall replacement when there's such a small eye? Does it mean there's a smaller eyewall, in which case, the outer storms won't have much of the inner moisture to draw on. Perhaps this would lead to greater extremes of weakening/re-strengthening...?

Just wondering aloud...! :blink:

Smich

[Mondy]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory No. I: Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at noon today as powerful Hurricane Wilma continues on a forecast track that may bring it very close to the Florida Keys Saturday, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Emergency Management officials decided to move up the timetable for emergency actions because of the increased intensity of the storm, which is now a category five.

All visitors and non residents must leave the Keys starting at noon today. Also, all state parks will be closed, residents and non-residents in recreational vehicles and high profile vehicles are also ordered to leave. Tolls on the Card Sound bridge will be suspended

A local state of emergency has been declared by county officials.

Given the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds (39 miles per hour and more) are expected to begin to impact the Keys late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Further emergency actions will be announced later today by County Emergency Management Officials

http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/Pages/Monro...rNews/S006FBDDF

[snowhunter]

A newbie question - does Wilma now fall into the category of an 'annular' hurricane?

I know that annular implies a large symmetric eye - but I thought it would need to exhibit annular characteristics to reach its present intensity?

[smich]

A newbie question - does Wilma now fall into the category of an 'annular' hurricane?

I know that annular implies a large symmetric eye  - but I thought it would need to exhibit annular characteristics to reach its present intensity?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Characteristics, yes - but Wilma will need to have survived a few eye-wall replacements to be considered annular. Let's see what happens after the first replacement - I wonder what type of eye will appear?!

I must admit, seeing the NHC this morning refering to the "dreaded pin-hole eye" appearing made me all weak at the knees! :lol:

I notice in that list posted earlier of the 10 strongest hurricanes - 3 of the top 6 have occured this year! :blink: And cat 5's are supposed to appear once every 0.2 years on average. Rulebook needs a re-write methinks...

Smich

[kold weather]

Jesus F***** hell!!!

I can't belivee this,I go away for 24hrs and it goes from barely being as hurricane to the strongest hurricane in atlantic history.

In terms of being Annular,no its definatly not but its exactly like Gilbert and Charley in terms of its eye shape,its got a pinhole eye but amazing pressure,I truely was not expecting this and fair play to SB who predicted that sort of strength two days ago.

In terms of stregth,it is stronger then Rita and Katrina now and infact any other atlantic system and matches some of the strongest super-tyhpoons as well.Pressure of 882mbs is quite fitting considering this season has broken most other atlantic records,why not the strongest ever as well!!!

I must admit with a eye like that there will not be any further strengthening,the eye simply can't get no smaller and a Eyewall replacement cycle probably isn't that far off really.

All in all though I'm shocked,I really am. Three cat-5's in one season(probably 4) and all three of though's ending in A...KatrinA,RitA and WilmA!!!

In temrs of landfall strength,I'm thinking prehaps 130mph still at present close to Tampa,still atmopsheric condtions are perfect for this system and it must be at about 95% of its MPI it can reach.

(ps,the rate its dropped its pressure is also amazing,must have been the quickest system to deepen to this size in the atlantic basin surely,I think its probably peaked now though thankfully....

Also worth remembering this will have a HUGE storm surge,worst case would be TAMPA being in the eastern quadrant,northerlies pushing a monster 30ft surge into Tampa.

Edited October 19, 2005 by kold weather

[sandstorm2]

Wilma has now been officially given the lowest central presure ever recorded in the atlantic basin, this is 882 mb beating the previous record of 888 mb by hurricane gilbertin 1988.

Regards S2

Edited October 19, 2005 by sandstorm2

[crimsone]

I can olnly reflect exacly what Kold Weather said. I've just been on the edge of my seat reading through everything that's been posted last night to catch up!

Any chance of posting a piccy of Gilberd and of Wilma side by side for comparison?

[kold weather]

This is Gilbert at its peak,not to far away from where Wilma is at present either:

Regardless of how much weakening occurs it should still have a monster storm surge and I doubt will go below a cat-3 before landfall.It'll probably manage to sustain cat-5 for another 18hrs before it finally drops below that again simply due to cooler waters again.

[crimsone]

Wow. Not far off the same size!

[snowhunter]

smich: Characteristics, yes - but Wilma will need to have survived a few eye-wall replacements to be considered annular. Let's see what happens after the first replacement - I wonder what type of eye will appear?!

How long can a cycle take?! I'm guessing that Wilma will not be able to sustain Cat 5 for more than 24 hours? ...lots of amazing sat images on the way.

Are we seeing more Atlantic Hurricanes resemble Western Pacific Typhoons because of the higher water temps?

kold weather: All in all though I'm shocked,I really am. Three cat-5's in one season(probably 4) and all three of though's ending in A...KatrinA,RitA and WilmA!!!

...three very scary women!

[Hurricane Debby]

Those 2 pics seem almost identical !

[kold weather]

Snowhunter,its probably more pot luck that we've had three amzingly powerful hurricanes,granted all three of those seem to be more like Pacific typhoons rather then Atlantic systems,infact really the water isn't that warm,its just that its probably reached close to 100% of its max potenial intensity,it's unlikely it can go any higher but atmospheric condtions really can't get much better it seems,infact I find it likely that it has,at least one point gone sub 880mbs,next recon will see if its that strnegth or weaker now after reaching a peak and with such a tiny eye(I've never seen such a small eye on a system!!!)

by the way I'm gonig to really enjoy writing a review of this season!!!

[Hurricane Debby]

Excellent KW - can't wait for the review - I was actually going to post a thread to find out where you could see a review of the season but I don't need to now. Will really look forward to that

[Cassarah]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 191459

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE

SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE

WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT

PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST

ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB

EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT

SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER

WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE

INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE

IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL

CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A

FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS

WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS

ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN

MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST

TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND

NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.

IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN

FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER

RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST

POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN

THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT

12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT

24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT

36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT

48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT

72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT

96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT

120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT

[kold weather]

I'm not going to dare start it of djm2211 considering how this season goes,I still think Alpha wil larrive sometime in early November.

Anyway just a quick message to say that recon will be ther ein about 2hrs and we will see just how strong the system is,the eye is still perfect in terms of its shape and size and the overall structure hasn't changed since this morning when recon went in and found that pressure and so its probably likely that it still has sub-885mbs pressure,infact maybe even we will get into the 870mbs range,certainly possible that we will get a 879mbs reading,although its equally possible that it'll find a higher pressure then before,either way this has been one hell of a storm,just when we thoguht Rit had this in the bag,sorty of makes the big four from last year look quite small!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like Steve M's predictions of yesterday may become fact which would prove catastrophic for the Eastern seaboard thats been inundated for the past 10 to 12 days :o It'll be the first time I've watched a system to the point of absorbtion but I think I will this one!

[Hurricane Debby]

Courtesy Hurrican Track

UPDATED: 11:00 AM EDT, October 19, 2005

WILMA THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD- FORECAST LOOKS VERY BAD

You have no doubt heard the news. Wilma is a powerful category five hurricane with an air pressure lower than ever before measured in an Atlantic hurricane. The NHC is forecasting Wilma to remain a category five for about another 24 hours or so and then it should weaken once over the cooler waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This, combined with stronger upper level winds should weaken Wilma down to a category three for landfall- we can only hope.

Right now preparations should be well under way. People in Florida know the routine- but this hurricane is not routine (it is for this season). I will say it again, time is on your side now- but the window will close quickly once Wilma makes the turn and heads east. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly as the hurricane speeds up and heads towards Florida. Remember- this will be a hurricane that affects people all across south Florida. Initial landfall will be along the SW coast, but people in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach and surrounding areas will have to deal with this hurricane. Put your plans in to action now and be ready. For great local information, check out the NWS website for your area- the link is below.

I am currently in South Carolina heading towards Florida. I will be in Port Charlotte tonight and Naples tomorrow. I will be working with two other crew members to provide the best reports on conditions and meteorological data that we can. All along the mission, I will post updates and eventually video reports from the affected areas. Stay tuned- it looks like Wilma will close out the season with quite an exclamation point. More here around 5pm ET.

[Mondy]

Having been away for a bit, and checking through the various loops, still does not appear to be an eyewall replacement going on. She is still in sound shape, with no flaws that i can see...damn perfect is Wilma!

Just a heads up for late arrivals on this thread. There's another thread solely for posting links and viewing all the relevant loops, images etc here :o

[crimsone]

I have a horrible and forboding feeling that Wilma will be retired this year. :o

[smich]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 191459

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE

SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE

WARMED A BIT.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT

PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA.  AT THIS POINT...THE BEST

ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB

EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT

SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER

WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE

INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE

IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL

CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A

FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.  AFTER THAT...AS

WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS

ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN

MOTION OF 300/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST

TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND

NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.

IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN

FOUR DAYS.  THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER

RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS.  THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST

POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN

THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N  83.2W  150 KT

12HR VT    20/0000Z 18.0N  84.0W  150 KT

24HR VT    20/1200Z 19.1N  85.1W  150 KT

36HR VT    21/0000Z 20.4N  85.9W  145 KT

48HR VT    21/1200Z 21.5N  86.2W  135 KT

72HR VT    22/1200Z 24.0N  84.5W  115 KT

96HR VT    23/1200Z 30.0N  77.0W    90 KT

120HR VT    24/1200Z 39.0N  69.0W    80 KT

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I mentioned the oscillations earlier - according to this Discussion, they are "Trochoidal"...

...what a great word! :o

Steve Murr was posting about the prospects of a NE seaboard hit last night - expect more a lot more models will show this in the coming days. 3 days to Tampa, then just 2 more to reach Boston!

Smich