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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Kod Weather, how many eyewall replacement cycles do you think Hurricane Wilma will have if it were to make landfall on saturday????????????????????

Also, sea surface tempertures are barely 1C low than they are in Hurricane Wilma's present location and as a result, i believe Hurricane Wilma may be able to restrengthen to less than 910mb, in terms of landfall, this is the worst case senario for Florida as i believe that Hurricane Wilma will make landfall as a storong category 4 hurricane with sustained windspeeds of 147mph and a central pressure of 926mb with massive storm surges on both the east and west sides of Florida.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Kod Weather, how many eyewall replacement cycles do you think Hurricane Wilma will have if it were to make landfall on saturday????????????????????

Also, sea surface tempertures are barely 1C low than they are in Hurricane Wilma's present location and as a result, i believe Hurricane Wilma may be able to restrengthen to less than 910mb, in terms of landfall, this is the worst case senario for Florida as i believe that Hurricane Wilma will make landfall as a storong category 4 hurricane with sustained windspeeds of 147mph and a central pressure of 926mb with massive storm surges on both the east and west sides of Florida.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You feeling jolly then S.B.?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hi SB,haven't got a clue,it really does depend on its inner core and other factors that can affect its MPI,inc;uding general atmopsheric condtions and also SST temps.It's a question very fe wif any can answer,including the good folks at NHC.

Many factors determine how high in term sof percent of its M<PI it can.Sea depth and also how warm it is will determine just how much Energy there is and how high its max MPI can go if it had 100% perfect atmosphere,which is just about impossible.Still considering sea temps I would think Wilma is fairly close to its MPI and has gotten that high simply because it has amazingly good condtions for development and is very tight.Once it reaches the highest percent of its MPI it can go in its current enviroment it'll start undergoing a eyewall replacement.I strongly suspect thats whats starting to happen with Wilma.In these large systems it can take a long while for the outer eyewall to take charge simply because the inner eyewall is so strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex

Not exactly on topic but I was sitting here now with the perfect back drop of a storm in the background as I happily sit here storm chasing online when I just received one of those pesky phone calls saying I had won a holiday - to Florida of all places !

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I wonder if she'll be as hasty at ERC as she was at going from Cat1 to Cat5?

When things are at there limits things do tend to happen fast and from what you guys (and the links) are saying she's out there at her upper limit.

Still I suppose we all need our 'shut eye' ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sadly it couldn't beat the Bird Flu of the BBC News menu at 6 O'clock. I think the storm should have got a mention since it's one hell of a feature. Another chance of rambling on about GW missed.

I wonder how long the eye wall replacement will take.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Whose saying I ramble on?????

Regards. G.W.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Ok. This is my take on Wilma.

She's currently going through (i suspect) one of many eyewall replacement cycles.

Whilst doing this she'll wobble a fair amount, this is where i think she might hit the Yucatan Peninsula for her first landfall, weakening her a good bit. Once she passes there,the NE turn occurs, but because she hit the YP first of all, this sends her further south to The Keys and NOT central Florida.

The other scenario is that she passes through the Yucatan Channel missing all land, keeping her Cat5 status, hits the slightly cooler SE Gulf of Mexico, which inturn heads her more northwards to central Florida, Tampa etc..

Lets face it, we won't know a thing until the NE turn is evident(if she does turn NE) - remember she's already broken the rules twice today regarding lowest recorded pressure and pressure drop in 24 hourrs...what else she got upher sleeve?

Edited by Mondy
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

17A... Wilma weakens slightly...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300

MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST

NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON

IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  900 MB...26.58 INCHES.  AN

AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO

PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15

INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH

THURSDAY.  STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS

NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...165 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

No mention of Eyewall replacement. I'm going to check for a new discussion and see if they mention one there.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Considering how the eye has now filled in its not suprising to see that pressure has risen somewhat,or at least is expected to have risen.Still I think 900mbs may be a little high considering it was only about 1-2hrs ago since the eye filled in although I think the wind speeds are likely spot on at present although by now the hurricane force winds will be expanding outwards more as the pressure graidant slackens as the system goes through a suspected eyewall replacement,or at least having a inner structure change at the very least.

Extrapolated pressure by the way according to latest recon is 894mbs,so still likely to be sub-900 at the least and vindicates my idea that th eNHC are slightly to high in terms of pressure

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Hi KW.

Although we all talk about Florida getting a hit from Wilma, at this moment the Swan Islands(part of Honduras) are directly in the path of Wilma - i can only image what a 900mb, 165mph hurricane feels like - but this inhabited island is about to know. While googling more about Swan Island, strikes me as beautiful place: http://www.swanislands.com/

;)

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hi Mondy,winds look mainly in the cat-4 range at the moment,probably still at 155mph though.Pressure is indeed still very low as i suspected the 900mbs estimatre was to high and recon backs up my idea,scary to think its still 5mbs deeper then rita and on par with the 1935 keys storm!!!

Winds still probably at cat-5 but its definatly weakening thanks to the eyewall replacement cycle,eye still at 4 miles roughly and covered in with two eyewalls,definate inner core changes occuring,once it does get a new eye though expect it to go sub-900mbs again(it'll go above that soon )and once again to cat-5 providing it does do it over the very warm waters at present.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

hmm. over the Yut. Pen., decides not do bother half way, reverses direction and heads for Cuba straight agross the 'gateway to the gulf', ending up as a weak cat 1 or tropical storm?

well, stranger things have happened (like a plunge of 101 mb in 24 hours!) but I see that as possibly somewhat unlikely. Unless of course, Wilam is in the middle of eyewall replacement as she hits land. That would weaken her significantly I would have thought.

Edited by crimsone
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Thanks all for your continued support and thoughts here. :)

We called MyTravel head office this morning to be told "but it's been downgraded to a cat 2"....we soon put the girl right and the best she could do was tell us to call back on Friday. They don't have a clue what's happening.

OH's guess is a delay at Glasgow for around 5 hours or so depending on when she's due to hit then a nice slow flight over and if the worst comes to the worst dump us in Washington or something for a few hours ;) anything just so they won't have to pay us cancellation money. We've tried to get an extension on the holiday but unless we come back through an English airport it's no can do, we'd consider that but the car will be left at the airport here so it probably wouldn't work.

I'm quite happy as long as we get there, I don't mind hunkering down in our hotel if we have to, taking video and lots of photos etc. ;)

Will keep y'all updated thanks again everyone. Boro dave you go tomorrow yeah, safe journey and enjoy yourself, see you there!!!!! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Thanks all for your continued support and thoughts here.  :)

We called MyTravel head office this morning to be told "but it's been downgraded to a cat 2"....we soon put the girl right and the best she could do was tell us to call back on Friday. They don't have a clue what's happening.

OH's guess is a delay at Glasgow for around 5 hours or so depending on when she's due to hit then a nice slow flight over and if the worst comes to the worst dump us in Washington or something for a few hours  ;) anything just so they won't have to pay us cancellation money. We've tried to get an extension on the holiday but unless we come back through an English airport it's no can do, we'd consider that but the car will be left at the airport here so it probably wouldn't work.

I'm quite happy as long as we get there, I don't mind hunkering down in our hotel if we have to, taking video and lots of photos etc.  ;)

Will keep y'all updated thanks again everyone. Boro dave you go tomorrow yeah, safe journey and enjoy yourself, see you there!!!!!  :)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They're probably totally unaware there was a Hurricane around and probably think you're some nut ringing up larking around. I bet the Girl was going round the office going whats the Flintstones got to do with a Hurricane. Blank looks and someone found an old article about Rita and quoted you that.

I doubt very much she ring back Friday becuase

a) She won't have made a note of your number.

:D Still won't know whats going on.

c) Probably doesn't work Friday anyway.

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