Wilma Watching

[SnowBear]

I doubt you will go Joneseye, even if the eye doesnt quite touch land, they are still getting hurricane force winds and a huge storm surge, which is probably going to be the thing that causes the most damage.

There has been a little straightening on the path and now, possibly even a tad turn west, Cancun I feel is pretty much a bullseye or maybe even east eyewall unless we see a turn north again.

[SnowBear]

FOX News reporting landfall at Cozumel

[Roo]

I will probably decide on Monday when the full extent of the damage may have become apparent...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If it's anything like the caribbean islands, they'll have already flown all the planes off and shut the runway, the boats will all be out of port, and the power and water will have been switched off. Even if nothing happens it usually takes about 1 week for everything to settle back to normal again (in this case, I don't think 'nothing happening' is an option).

I wouldn't leave it too late to decide what to do

[londonsnow]

FOX News reporting landfall at Cozumel

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

i wouldnt want to on cozumel now. it'll be obliterated

[Brrr]

FOX News reporting landfall at Cozumel

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you can see it on the radar

Radar

There's been nearly no reporting of it here - isn't it dreadful - unless it lands in the 'right' place, we ignore it.

[Stuart]

I am going be Watching Wilma all weekend on fox news

[Roo]

For any who haven't seen it, the Caribbean Hurricane Network have diaries from the affected area:

http://stormcarib.com/

Edited October 21, 2005 by Roo

[Brrr]

I am going be Watching Wilma all weekend on fox news

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Watch out for some of their more 'right' sided reporters - Hannity and Colmes and that other fellow O'Reilly (I think they are sending out subliminal messages as well )

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[SnowBear]

If I aint mistaken,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

That eye looks like it has vortexes inside it like Isabel did, star shaped, and I think Wilma is now a pretty strong Cat5 by the looks of that sat signiture.

[Hurricane Debby]

For any who haven't seen it, the Caribbean Hurricane Network have diaries from the affected area:

http://stormcarib.com/

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What a fantastic site Roo - thanks for that. I am going to be riveted to that one.

[kold weather]

Yep looks like itas mad eits first landfall over the island Cozumel and is infact about the same size as the eye which is currently very stable and large although is contracting more with a double maxima occuring again so possibly the start of a new eyewall replacement to start again over the next 6hrs,coupled with any landfall will likely weaken the system quite rapidly.Also worth noting Meso-vorticies in the eye as well,very impressive to see.

In terms of track it seems to have had a westward wobble but the overall track is still to the NW/NNW and more intresting it has slowed down as the steering currents become less impressive again as the trough that gave that pull to the north during the morning is now heading towards the east coast and is leaving Wilma behind,a second trough is now forming which should push it to the NE and cause it to rapidly get moving towards Florida.

(snowbear,Katrina had them as a cat-3)

Edited October 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Hurricane Debby]

http://www.cozumel.net/webcam/

[Brrr]

cause it to rapidly get moving towards Florida.

(snowbear,Katrina had them as a cat-3)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What cat are we expecting for Florida now KW?

[kold weather]

It all dpends on how long its stays over the Yucatan and also whether it's either getting stronger or getting weaker when it makes landfall in Florida,NHC currently thinks bordeline cat-1/2,I'm thiking maybe slightly higher at cat-2.

[Roo]

What a fantastic site Roo - thanks for that. I am going to be riveted to that one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It was my 'eyes and ears' whilst I was working out there!

Edited October 21, 2005 by Roo

[Brrr]

Thanks for that KW - any chance of it getting some more energy from the GOM - is it a safe bet that the waters are too cool for it to strengthen?

Here's the latest sat

[Joneseye]

If it's anything like the caribbean islands, they'll have already flown all the planes off and shut the runway, the boats will all be out of port, and the power and water will have been switched off. Even if nothing happens it usually takes about 1 week for everything to settle back to normal again (in this case, I don't think 'nothing happening' is an option).

I wouldn't leave it too late to decide what to do

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks Snowbear and Roo.

I guess I have to face the facts that I won't be going. My missus is giving my loads of grief for being a weather enthusiast and not being able to pick a suitable time to go on holiday I am sure others have experienced similar grief when they get weather things wrong...

[conor123]

What category is it at the minute ? Still Category 4 ?

[Roo]

Thanks Snowbear and Roo.

I guess I have to face the facts that I won't be going. My missus is giving my loads of grief for being a weather enthusiast and not being able to pick a suitable time to go on holiday    I am sure others have experienced similar grief when they get weather things wrong...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But the thing is, there is no way you could've know about this one...hardly an average year is it? When I used to travel out there, we'd always book our work seasons for early june or october, because big hurricanes were so rare at that time......hahahahaha!

You never know, you might be lucky...the reason I said what I said was to give you a chance to find out the real info, rather than believing the holiday peeps who will give you all kinds of nonsense....

Things might not be bad, and they might actually want as many people over there as possible, getting money back into the economy

[crimsone]

they're really getting a battering now!!!

[SnowBear]

Surprising actually how the land hasnt really effected the western side much at all of Wilma.

I fear the Yucatan damage is going to be more than we all realise, max land height I believe is around 45'...wave model was showing in places 50'+ above normal sea level.

[crimsone]

Surprising actually how the land hasnt really effected the western side much at all of Wilma.

I fear the Yucatan damage is going to be more than we all realise, max land height I believe is around 45'...wave model was showing in places 50'+ above normal sea level.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's ok then.

Wilma wil bring the sea with her! :blink:

[Mondy]

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma, an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm pounding Mexico's Caribbean beach resorts with ferocious winds and rains, was projected to strike Florida on Monday, according to all of the major weather models.

The northwestern eyewall of Wilma was over the island of Cozumel in Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory Friday, noting the center of the storm could make landfall on northeastern Yucatan tonight. The eyewall, the eye of the storm surrounded by a vertical wall of clouds, is a hurricane's most devastating region.

After leaving the Yucatan, the hurricane will churn northeast across the Gulf of Mexico toward the south-central Gulf Coast of Florida, according to the weather models.

On its forecast track, Wilma will spare the U.S. oil and natural gas rigs and refineries on the Gulf of Mexico which had gotten badly battered by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in late August and September.

In an advisory at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), the NHC said the center of the storm was located about 35 miles southeast of Cozumel.

Wilma was moving northwest at nearly five miles per hour. On this track, the core of Wilma will be over Cozumel during the next several hours and be near the northeast coast of the Yucatan later today or tonight.

The NHC noted that Wilma has a large circulation and the northeast portions of the Yucatan coast are probably already experiencing hurricane conditions.

Its maximum sustained winds remained at 145 mph with higher gusts, making Wilma a Category 4 (winds 131-155 mph) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The NHC said some fluctuations in intensity were possible before the storm makes landfall later today.

Over the next 12 hours, the NHC expects Wilma to regain Category 5 (winds greater than 155 mph) strength before weakening as it crosses the Gulf. The NHC expects Wilma will strike Florida as a Category 3 (winds 111-130 mph) or Category 2 (winds 96-110 mph

[Mondy]

Cozumel Island must be hell on earth at the moment.

[crimsone]

On its forecast track, Wilma will spare the U.S. oil and natural gas rigs and refineries on the Gulf of Mexico which had gotten badly battered by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in late August and September.

Who cares? So they've been spared - big deal. If they'd been hit it might have been news, but as it is there's more important things to report, like loss of life! (On a second point about that quote, I note that they mention the rigs are safe. Not New Orleans, louisiana or Texas, but the oil rigs!)

Other than that an interesting report. :blink:

Edited October 21, 2005 by crimsone