Some Quirky Statistical Fun

[Weather-history]

Here's some quirky stats , some oddities that weather stats throws up from time to time.

The last occasions when June was the warmest month of the year.

June 1970 16.4

June 1966 15.4

June 1960 16.1

June 1950 16.2

June 1940 16.4

June 1922 13.8

June 1920 14.4

Oddly, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all recorded June as the warmest month of the year or 5 out of the last 7 occasions that this happened

Summers ending in "8"

When was the last warm dry summer with a year ending in 8?

1868 CET: 16.9 Rain: 143mm

1878 CET: 16.0 Rain: 271mm

1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm

1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm

1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm

1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm

1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm

1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm

1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm

1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm

1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm

1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm

1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm

1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm

2008 ?

Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run?

Severe winters and 50 year factor?

Take the last sub 2C winter: 1979 CET: 1.6

Go back 50 years to 1929 CET 1.7 and keep going back 50 years each time, you come up with this list

1979: 1.6

1929: 1.7

1879: 0.7

1829: 3.9

1779: 5.6

1729: 1.7

1679: 1.0

5 out of the 7 winters were sub 2C, all winters had a below average January. January 1829 was colder than Januaries 1985 and 1987.

Warm summers and 50 year factor or something even odder?

The hottest summer on record is 1976 with a CET of 17.8, go back 50 years to 1926 and keep going back 50 years and you come up with this list

1976: 17.8

1926: 15.6

1876: 16.0

1826: 17.6

1776: 15.2

1726: 16.0

1676: 16.8

Only summer 1776 was a touch below average.

1676 was the hottest summer on record until 1781

1826 was the hottest summer on record until 1976.

So 3 of those summers have held the title of hottest summer on record and even odder those summers are 150 years apart.

1676, 1826 1976

Ripley's Believe It or Not!

Anyone else got some more?

Edited October 29, 2005 by Mr_Data

[PhilipEden]

Here's some quirky stats , some oddities that weather stats throws up from time to time.

The last occasions when June was the warmest month of the year.

June 1970 16.4

June 1966 15.4

June 1960 16.1

June 1950 16.2

June 1940 16.4

June 1922 13.8

June 1920 14.4

Oddly, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all recorded June as the warmest month of the year or 5 out of the last 7 occasions that this happened

<snip>

Anyone else got some more?

I remember spotting this one after June 1970, and gleefully predicted another hot one in 1980. I couldn't believe my luck when the first week or so of June 1980 turned out to be very warm, if a bit humid and thundery, but the weather then broke and the rest of the month was cold and wet. This is when I formulated Eden's First Law of Weather Cycles: as soon as a weather cycle is spotted, it will fail. It followed on from a shoal of letters and short articles in "Weather" magazine in the late-60s and early-70s predicting a very cold winter in 73-74, 74-75 or 75-76 based on a long-running approx 11-year (i.e. sunspot) cycle of cold winters (1963, 1951, 1940, 1929, 1917, 1907, 1895). All three, of course, were ridiculously mild.

The Law was proven a few years ago when another extraordinary 11-year sequence failed spectacularly:

November rainfall as a percentage of the 1971-2000 mean:

1802 59%

1813 66%

1824 134%

1835 103%

1846 59%

1857 56%

1868 61%

1879 37%

1890 116%

1901 66%

1912 76%

1923 91%

1934 63%

1945 17%

1956 33%

1967 78%

1978 48%

1989 61%

and 2000 was, of course, rather different at 181%

Philip Eden

[Thundery wintry showers]

The one I'm most interested in seeing tested is the 22-23 year cycle of cold winters- 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963, and 1985-87. It remains to be seen whether 2007-10 will continue this cycle and produce at least one or two somewhat colder winters than we have been used to recently.

[Weather-history]

Here's a couple more

January 1795 CET: -3.1C

January 1796 CET: 7.3C

The coldest January on record followed by the mildest January on record at the time. The odds of that happening must be pretty small especially after 100 years of record keeping.

The 3 warmest Autumns on record happening in consecutive years

Autumn 1729 CET: 11.6

Autumn 1730 CET: 11.8

Autumn 1731 CET: 11.8

[Summer of 95]

Here's a couple more

January 1795 CET: -3.1C

January 1796 CET: 7.3C

The coldest January on record followed by the mildest January on record at the time. The odds of that happening must be pretty small especially after 100 years of record keeping.

The 3 warmest Autumns on record happening in consecutive years

Autumn 1729 CET: 11.6

Autumn 1730 CET: 11.8

Autumn 1731 CET: 11.8

The one that I spotted a while ago, and always stands out for me (i think I've mentioned it before):

December CET

1874 -0.2

then

1884 4.4

1894 5.1

1904 3.7

1914 4.6

1924 6.8

1934 8.1

1944 3.6

1954 6.8

1964 3.6

1974 8.1

1984 5.2

1994 6.4

2004 5.4

Since that time every other "end-digit" has had at least one at 3.0C or below, even into the 1990s. It's also noticeable that some of these Decembers (1894, 1954, 1984) came in what were otherwise cold winters.

[Weather-history]

Here's a very peculiar one

Rainfall

August 1865: 126.0mm

September 1865: 9.5mm

October 1865: 168.4mm

An extremely dry month sandwiched between two very wet months

Another "5" factor :lol:

[PhilipEden]

Here's a very peculiar one

Rainfall

August 1865: 126.0mm

September 1865: 9.5mm

October 1865: 168.4mm

An extremely dry month sandwiched between two very wet months

Another "5" factor :lol:

I had to do a double take, because I thought for half a second you had got the century wrong ... not as dramatic a contrast, but exactly 100 years and 1 month later we had one that I can remember:

September 1965 148.7mm

October 1965 32.2mm

November 1965 119.4mm

And the opposite in 1940, which I certainly don't remember:

June 1940 20.9mm

July 1940 112.5mm

Aug 1940 15.0mm

Philip Eden

The one I'm most interested in seeing tested is the 22-23 year cycle of cold winters- 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963, and 1985-87. It remains to be seen whether 2007-10 will continue this cycle and produce at least one or two somewhat colder winters than we have been used to recently.

If Eden's First Law is any good, it will undoubtedly not happen, because I wrote a centre-page feature for the Daily Telegraph's millennium edition at the back-end of 1999 predicting, tongue firmly in cheek, a hugely cold winter in 2007-08 plus-or-minus one year, and repeated it in Book of the Weather.

Philip Eden

[Weather-history]

I had to do a double take, because I thought for half a second you had got the century wrong ... not as dramatic a contrast, but exactly 100 years and 1 month later we had one that I can remember:

September 1965 148.7mm

October 1965 32.2mm

November 1965 119.4mm

Interesting one here Phil

1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm

1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm

1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm

1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm

2005 annual rainfall: ?

2005 has been quite a dry year so far is it going to end that way though.

Edited October 29, 2005 by Mr_Data

[paul tall]

Just to be awkward, a "4"

From my weather station

August 04 210mm

September 04 13mm

October 04 133mm

November 04 13mm

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody post information relating to years ending in 6.

[Weather-history]

Could somebody post information relating to years ending in 6.

Just a rough analysis

1996: Very cold May, record breaking heatwave early June

1986: Very cold February, last sub zero CET month, very cold April coldest since 1922, cold August since 1956, cold September

1976: Hottest summer on record, very wet September/October, cold December (colder than 1995)

1966: June the warmest month of the year

1956: Very cold February, very wet cold summer especially August.

1946: Highest maximum ever record in November (21.7C)

1936: April colder than March, very wet July (wettest since 1888)

1926: Very mild february

1916: Mildest January on record, cold snowy March, very cold June, coldest December since 1890

1906:-

1896: Driest May since 1844, very wet September

1886: the coldest February since 1855, wet May

1876: wettest December on record

1866: wettest September since 1799

1856: -

1846: Very mild January/February, hottest June on record, very cold December

1836: Driest May since 1795

1826: Cold january/mild February, 2nd hottest summer on record, very dry April to June period, December milder than November

1816: notably cold year, "the year without a summer"

1806: the mildest December since 1733

1796: Exceptionally mild January and April but an exceptionally cold December (1 of only 6 sub zero Decembers)

1786: A very cold March, cold September and November but a notably warm June.

1776: An exceptionally cold January

1766: Driest January on record,

1756: Cold april, a very cold May

1746: Cold October, December warmer than November by 2C

1736: Notably warm year, very mild January, very warm August,.

1726: Very warmMay-June period

1716: An exceptionally cold January

1706: Notable warm May-June period

1696: April as warm as January.

1686: A notable warm year for time period, A very mild January, a warm June

1676: An exceptionally hot June, summer 1686 was the hottest summer on record until 1781. December was exceptionally cold, one of only 6 sub zero Decembers

1666: Hot July-August period

Edited November 8, 2005 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

fascinating reading all that.

Philip, the law you spoke of is called 'sods law'

well known to all forecasters!

cheers

John

[Weather-history]

The 13th of June record maxima for that date is 28.3C set in 1948 and equaled in 1994.

It is the only date during a summer month that hasn't recorded an official maximum of 30+C yet.

[Andy Bown]

The 13th of June record maxima for that date is 28.3C set in 1948 and equaled in 1994.

It is the only date during a summer month that hasn't recorded an official maximum of 30+C yet.

That's amazing !

My June 13th maxxes in the 3 years of recording have been 24c, 26c, 17c.

[Weather-history]

One of the oddest winters is the winter of 1874-75

December 1874: -0.2 (4th coldest December at the time)

January 1875: 6.4 (Joint 5th warmest January at the time)

February 1875: 2.3

[MP-R]

For 2005

January - 115.3mm

February - 40.6mm

March - 102.7mm

Wettest Months in 2004

October - 162.4mm

January - 136.4mm

November - 128.3mm

Driest Months in 2004

February - 24.0mm

June - 43.8mm

Wettest Months in 2003

December - 146.6mm

January - 126.2mm

November - 123.7mm

Driest Months in 2003

August - 12.0mm

February - 18.9mm

September - 40.6mm

Wettest Months in 2002

November - 162.0mm

January - 154.5mm

October - 123.0mm

Driest Months in 2002

September - 48.6mm

April - 58.2mm

June - 58.2mm

The pattern over the last 3 yeasr for wettest months are November and January. The driest months have mainly been June and February.

[Weather-history]

Here's another one.

There have been only 8 Februaries with a sub zero CET

Interestingly someone who is 60+ (John Holmes, Peter Tattum perhaps... ) would have lived through 4 of them

1947, 1956, 1963, 1986

The others are 1684, 1740, 1855 and 1895.

[Dave J]

This is from my weather records:

September 2001

Mean temperature : 12.9C

October 2001

Mean temperature : 13.0C

[Optimus Prime]

April 1962; 7.7c

April 1963; 8.7c

April 1964; 8.7c

July 1961; 15.2c

July 1962; 15.1c

July 1963; 15.2c

July 1964; 16.1c

December 1963; 2.6c

December 1964; 3.6c

1963; 8.47c

1964; 9.47c

:blink: :blink:

[summer blizzard]

Here is a 110 year cycle concerning June

1676 has the second warmest June on record

1786 has joint 18th warmest June on record

1896 has joint 15th warmest June on record

2006??????

Incidently, my initial prediction is for the 10th warmest June on record.

[Weather-history]

England and Wales rainfall series

1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm

1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm

1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm

1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm

2005 annual rainfall: 828.8mm

Not sub 800mm but another dryish year

[summer blizzard]

CatchMyDrift, July 2005 had over 130mm of rainfall, it was above average in rainfall, not below.

[Sunshine]

Has anyone noticed that every year, the first week in July always seems to be cool, I think there has only been one very warm spell in the first week in July here in the last 15 years (2001)

[Thundery wintry showers]

The first week of July 1999 was also rather warm and humid, with a few spectacular thunderstorms kicking around in places. In Tyneside the temperature exceeded 24C on a couple of days.

[Summer of 95]

Although July 1999 was easily the best July if not the best month for warm dry sunny weather here in the last 10 years, the first week was nothing special (though not cool either)- it was the middle and especially end that had the hottest weather.

Certainly there have been some very poor starts to July recently; 2000 and 2002 were particularly bad, 2004 not much better; though 2005 had an indifferent first week it was nothing like as bad as the last 10 days.

Here's how I remember them:

1997: Carried on from the terrible June

1998: As 1997

1999: Reasonable though not as good as the rest of the month

2000: Dire; sub-15C maxima

2001: As I recall a hot spell at the end of June broke down into some thundery weather.

2002: As 2000

2003: Don't know as was abroad

2004: Cool and unsettled

2005: As 2004

So it does seem to be rather lacking in the hot sunny department.