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"ice In November To Bear A Duck...."


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Lets see how true this old weather lore is

"Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck."

Here's Novembers with a CET of <3.5 and the following winter CETs

1782 Nov 2.3 Winter 3.2

1915 Nov 2.8 Winter 5.5

1807 Nov 2.9 Winter 2.4

1684 Nov 3.0 Winter 2.7

1851 Nov 3.1 Winter 4.8

1862 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.7

1910 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.0

1740 Nov 3.3 Winter 2.8

1746 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.8

1786 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.1

1919 Nov 3.3 Winter 5.6

1923 Nov 3.3 Winter 3.9

1815 Nov 3.4 Winter 2.4

1871 Nov 3.4 Winter 5.2

Mixed results to be honest

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Flowers bloomin' in late Autumn

A sure sign of bad winter comin'

Here's very mild Novembers with a CET of 8.5 and > and the following winters

1994 Nov 10.1 Winter 5.9

1818 Nov 9.5 Winter 4.1

1938 Nov 9.4 Winter 4.7

1743 Nov 9.3 Winter 3.1

1730 Nov 9.2 Winter 2.5

1817 Nov 9.1 Winter 3.2

1881 Nov 8.9 Winter 5.1

1939 Nov 8.7 Winter 1.5

1821 Nov 8.6 Winter 5.8

1899 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.1

1951 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.9

1953 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.1

1978 Nov 8.5 Winter 1.6

2002 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.7

Again mixed results

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

In recent years, the relatively cold Novembers were those of 1993 and 1996, and the winters that followed, while not being especially cold, produced a rather above average amount of snow relative to the average for post-1988.

As for mild Novembers- there have been so many of them recently...

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

None of the cold anomoly Novembers relate to current times anyway so we can't learn anything there and as TWS said there's been so many Mild Novembers of late which have then been followed by mild winters so no pattern matching there either. Before that say from the mid-80's or so and further back there was a statistical element of truth behind this saying but now days I think we can forget it.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Well all 4 recent very warm Octobers have preceded cold Decembers:

1968 Oct 12.5 Dec 3.0

1969 Oct 13.0 Dec 3.3

1995 Oct 12.9 Dec 2.3

2001 Oct 13.3 Dec 3.6

despite the Novembers and Septembers not showing any pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

October 2005 in my records had a temperature average of 13.4C so it is likely that this winter will be an icy one. Howevere, I seem to remember everyone making a caffufle about an icestorm on the 8th/9th October this year when actually it was a perfectly normal weekend leading to two days of ABOVE average temperatures!

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  • 6 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Well all 4 recent very warm Octobers have preceded cold Decembers:

1968 Oct 12.5 Dec 3.0

1969 Oct 13.0 Dec 3.3

1995 Oct 12.9 Dec 2.3

2001 Oct 13.3 Dec 3.6

despite the Novembers and Septembers not showing any pattern.

It seems that the pattern came up trumps once again, October had a CET of 13.1C, which is 2.7 above average and December had a CET of 4.4C, which is 0.7C below average.

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  • 6 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Well all 4 recent very warm Octobers have preceded cold Decembers:

1968 Oct 12.5 Dec 3.0

1969 Oct 13.0 Dec 3.3

1995 Oct 12.9 Dec 2.3

2001 Oct 13.3 Dec 3.6

despite the Novembers and Septembers not showing any pattern.

Another example of a warm October followed by a cold December is found below:-

1996 October 11.7c > 10.6c 1960-1991 C.E.T December 2.9c < 4.3c 1960-1991 C.E.T

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Another example of a warm October followed by a cold December is found below:-

1996 October 11.7c > 10.6c 1960-1991 C.E.T December 2.9c < 4.3c 1960-1991 C.E.T

It'll take something special to keep this sequence intact this year- yet another very mild October leading to a very mild early December. However it's worth noting that the coldest December of the last 100 years- 1981- came after a cold October (8.6, none even within half a degree of that since 1993) and 1959 had a warm October and December.

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