Daily Astro-climatology Report

[Roger J Smith]

04 DEC 2300h

This thread will present a daily report on weather features across Europe and some global highlights, to build on the "theory sessions" elsewhere in the Synoptic Room forum. It is suggested that anyone using these daily reports should be familiar with the theory as presented, since the concepts outlined here will otherwise be unknown to the reader and the information presented here may therefore not be easily understood.

------------------------------

J-4 field analysis

The J-4 field continues to drift downstream in the model grid and was located at 3.8 from 21z data and satellite. The field appears to have one-third potential intensity and seems to be largely overshadowed by the stronger S-3 field. To the extent that the J-4 field is active, J-II energy is catching up to J-III energy in the area north of Scotland; see satellite imagery for features near 60N and 0W (J-II) and 64N 4W (J-III) but these are exhibiting the NNW-SSE "washout" effect that is characteristic of J-field activity when it is not dominant. The J-I energy has moved around its loop through Norway and is now over the central North Sea. J-IV energy related to this field is gathering over the western Atlantic with J-IV transit still four days away. Note for general forecasting purposes that a series of mutual J-I/J-II eclipse events will be setting up on a weekly basis due to a 7.1 day period, on Tuesdays and Fridays this winter. These will become potential snow producers over central Europe and later in the winter when the next J-field arrives from upstream, possibly over the UK.

S-3 field analysis

The S-3 field dominates the flow over Europe at present, and is also located at 3.8. The S-VII/S-VIII mutual transit event has created strong cyclonic activity over the eastern Med and Black Sea (the S-VIII component is a weak frontal wave, the S-VII a stronger frontal wave). The S-VI energy is moving north towards Belarus and should feed WNW next 48h, probably not carving out a separate low but interacting with a low moving NE from Germany which is likely the J-IV feature of the downstream J-1 field. This S-VI energy will eventually cross southern Sweden and arrive over the North Sea around 9-10 Dec possibly interacting with the model-predicted frontal systems northwest of Scotland. Meanwhile, S-V and S-IV energy curved past Ireland earlier today and now can be seen approaching France. The inner three loops of S-field energy are rotating around a diffuse centre near the Dutch-German border; only S-III is capable of reaching East Anglia on its western extreme. Of more interest to UK forecasts, S-IV energy will be sweeping around the loop and approaching England from the northeast on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This may activate the frontal zone shown on models running NW-SE across the UK Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially when S-III energy overtakes it around 14z Tuesday over the North Sea; this should lead to fairly active north to south precip bands with J-field activity on a similar track from NE to SW. These will be analyzed as they occur Tuesday-Wednesday.

Global highlights include S-2 field over central North America; S-VII event is seen as frontal wave near LA-MS border, S-VI event is over northeast states. The J-3 field is located near timing line 2, so most of its J-II and J-III energy is found in the eastern Canada low, but its J-IV component is much further west (BC). The Ma-2 field is co-located with the J-3 field at present, while the Ma-1 field with a probable centre near KS has been overwhelmed by southward flow in the stronger S-2 field. Hurricane Epsilon continues a track that suggests an energy system ejected from the Sun as Venus passed through the Ma-2 field last week. The current NHC track for the storm can be interpreted in this model as capture of this energy by Mars leading to a return of the energy towards the inner solar system next week. This research model has no developed methodology to predict such evolutions so track forecast possibilities would range from the NHC track to a more eastward track towards southern Spain or Portugal. A northeast turn at this point would be equivalent to the energy heading further out into the solar system, and this is considered unlikely. The hurricane illustrates a principle of the new theory -- Venus-related hurricanes have larger eyes than Mercury-related hurricanes, and yet are generally weaker (this is based on several hundred case studies).

This message will appear once a day around 0500 for daily use. Readers with questions or comments should first read the theory sessions, and then direct all questions or comments there, or use the PM facility. I would like to keep this thread active for daily updates only; so kindly use the theory sessions thread for interactive feedback.

So, a somewhat historic moment -- the first ever daily astro-climatology briefing to appear in Europe. This theory has been used for operational severe weather forecasting in North America since April 2000.

[Roger J Smith]

06 Dec 0550h

Today's update on the astro-climatology research model will be some brief notes on the developments in the S-3 field. S-VI energy has fed NW into central Sweden and is heading for Norway later today. S-V energy is forming a strong wave over the Adriatic, this will phase with S-VII around 12z as the wave moves northeast towards western Ukraine. Later in the week, S-V will catch up to S-VI around 8th 05z in a position likely to be close to eastern Scotland. This may affect the synoptic scale forecasts for Wednesday night into Thursday by creating a stronger than expected frontal wave over the UK and delaying its eventual southward progress. More about that in tomorrow's daily report.

The most interesting developments today will be in the S-III and S-IV energy loops which both run across the UK and will become active after 12z when S-III passes S-IV (estimated location of this event just offshore Lincs-Yorks so that energy should pulse and well-developed cells can be expected to move southwest across eastern England, the southern cluster being S-III therefore moving ahead of the northern cluster S-IV). This energy will probably continue to loop around cyclonically for most of the day as these centres link back to the oncoming S-V and S-VI energy. Expect some lightning to be reported at least over the warmer waters of the North Sea with this S-field event.

S-I and then S-II energy will be found over the south end of the North Sea during the period and S-II energy may reach coastal East Anglia by late Tuesday as the whole system is likely to retrogress due to the dominant effect of S-VI moving west. This is a normal second-order variation of S-fields and does not reflect motion of the field sector in space.

The J-4 field remains fairly weakly represented but I have been tracking J-I energy across the northern half of the UK past six hours and there may be some weak clusters of convection in eastern Scotland and the Midlands related to this field. The next significant event will be returning energy from the J-II then J-I loops from northeast to southwest tomorrow evening and early Wednesday. This energy peak may lead to enhanced rainfalls in southwest England later Wednesday as the energy loops through the advancing frontal wave.

In general, I expect these interactions could lead to a fairly active weather event on Wednesday with perhaps an unanticipated degree of energy entering the system from the northeast towards 8:00z. On the conventional side, without reference to the theory directly, I would be looking for some fairly strong temperature contrasts setting up with this wave as it moves SE across the UK later Wednesday, and it may turn out that some mixed rain and snow occurs on higher ground in north central England.

Next update 0530h 07 Dec

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

[Next update 0530h 07 Dec

Edited December 6, 2005 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith]

7 Dec 0530h

Using satellite animation, you can see the S-V energy now moving west across Poland and the Baltic Sea, while S-VI energy has drifted west to southern Norway. The S-3 field has weakened slightly past 24 hours while the feature to the west of Ireland seems to be approaching J-field energy which is timed to reach Wales around 21z from the southwest (J-I in transit 21z, J-IV in transit 23z). Meanwhile the S-V and S-VI energy loops reach alignment at 05z on 8 Dec, probable location western UK or Irish Sea from NW to SE. All of these developments will provide interesting energy flow analysis around 18z so I plan to update the daily report at that time.

[Roger J Smith]

7 Dec 1730h

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm risk for southwest England, in particular areas between Bristol and Bournemouth, peaking at 1900h due to J-field energy alignment (J-I passes J-IV near transit). In phase with this, moderate to heavy rain located to the east and northeast of the developing wave centre across Severn valley, portions of Wales, and moving towards south central counties.

S-V and S-VI energy currently located near 4.0 (from sw Norway to west of Denmark) and timed now to reach eastern coastal areas of England and southern Scotland around 06z at their energy peak. This may give the developing wave over southern England a northern secondary around Yorkshire by that time, and could lead to a rain-snow mix over higher ground as the system departs late tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Roger J Smith]

Update 8 Dec 0510h

J-field activity has been showing signs of returning to full intensity over timing line 3 past 2 days ... J-II moves to transit at 1430z with J-IV at transit currently (wave ahead of deep upper centre nw of Iceland). J-I and J-III energy now moving to eclipse positions and will be energizing frontal zone across France later today. Inner components of J-field system, J-V and GRS, moving towards their 2.6 day peak expected about 01z but with regard to the J-II peak at 1430z, J-V reaching transit at 1415z so will be monitoring weak frontal zone NI to Wales for convective peaks, GRS energy catching up to these so a general flare up of showery precip possible 14-17z despite weak background (conventional) meteorological scenario.

Meanwhile S-V and S-VI energy seems to have been scattered somewhat past 6-12h as it approached the east coast of the UK and this may reflect a trend towards stronger J-field and weaker S-field contributions to the overall European scenario now to 13 Dec before the opposite trend may return (reasons due in part to lunar position in geomagnetic field). However, the S-field has also shown an eastward drift which is tending to hold back retrograde motion somewhat. There could still be noticeable precip development from S-V then S-VI as these energy centres move across the UK from northeast to southwest next 12-24 hours. J-IV event downstream has formed strong wave near Moscow which shows clear prograde motion relative to S-field components.

Over North America, developing storm southern US next 12-24 hours may provide a good test case for J-field severe weather potential related to J-V / GRS alignment cycle around 01-03z, expecting to monitor this over coastal MS-AL into s GA and n FL. Snowfall across s MO, AR, TN towards northeast states follows J-II loop and should peak mid to late 9th as J-I aligns (at 6h after transit, 15-16z). Will try to have a look at Australia-NZ sector in more detail with this series of J-field events.

May update around 15z if interesting J-field activity develops on UK radar.

Edited December 8, 2005 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Update 9 Dec 0540h

The J-4 field has shown some retrograde motion since Tuesday and is now located on timing line 3 (timing number 3.5). Energy in the J-I and J-II loops should generally drift back to SW across Ireland or western UK next 24 hours and public forecasts of rain may tend to verify mainly as scattered very light showers, virga or generally inactive cloud from warm fronts. The main forecast problem in the next few days is likely to become dense fog and its persistence well into the daytime hours, and this is not generally affected by model parameters. S-3 field remains at lower intensity generally, S-V energy will rotate through the southern part of Europe and reach an alignment with S-VII when it reaches western Russia in about 48h.

Australia in a heat wave past few days, especially NSW -- relates in terms of model timing to V-field which in southern hemisphere should be centered over SA and moving slowly west. Will check Aus radars for J-field activity around 10:00-03z and note any findings in this report around 10:0530z.

Northeast US developing low will be governed by J-field energy loops where J-I catches up to J-II before they reach eclipse tomorrow; energy peak timed for 10:03-06z with development over the Cape Cod region of s.e. MA.

[GrimReaper]

I would like to understand this better but cannot find the theory sessions mentioned above in the "synoptic room".

Can anyone please point me in the right direction, thanks

[GrimReaper]

I would like to understand this better but cannot find the theory sessions mentioned above in the "synoptic room".

Can anyone please point me in the right direction, thanks

Ignore this one folks, I found it thank you

Edited December 10, 2005 by GrimReaper

[Roger J Smith]

13 Dec 0830h

Regrets on the interruption in this feature. I have been jammed with work and the usual pre-Christmas stuff that parents face. And the weather has gone back into a blocking high so that worthwhile timing features near the British Isles have been ghostly to say the least. Next 24 hours, a fairly strong J-field energy peak occurs 14:03z with components I and II moving southwest; will update this analysis but I expect this to show up near North Sea coast as at least showery trough feature in the developing WNW flow. The big event in this theoretical model is the full moon (15 Dec 16z) combined with the N Max about 16:01z. Events this close normally form double-centered lows on all timing lines, and the fact that there will be another strong cluster of events on the 19th helps to organize the flow. This is directly applicable to the forecast problem facing the UK for Friday-Saturday. A strong N Max event in a volatile flow often out-performs the 72h progs by 5-7 mbs. Therefore I would be optimistic that a very strong NNW flow might develop behind a deep low crossing Norway, and would lean towards the snowier and colder side of the range of possibilities for the 48h period. It would also seem just as volatile through the 19th so that cold spell could rapidly disappear with a strong WSW flow with the Monday 19th feature. Beyond that, I would distrust FI cold waves or easterly to northerly flow as several components in this model swing to a stronger zonal index to 10 Jan before massive anticyclonic blocking northern Europe then takes over the pattern.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 Dec 0830h

Roger

when's the next update. I may have misquoted your winter prediction but I did read you were anticipating record warmth near Christmas somewhere...didn't I?

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

My research model indicates temperatures above normal through much of the period of 19 to 31 Dec and into the first week of January. Whether any of that will be record high remains to be seen, probably more like "mild to very mild" as I imagine record highs are well up into the mid-teens. I foresee values of 8 to 12 C at times. Peaks of warmth appear in the research forecast on 26-27 Dec and 31 Dec into 1 Jan, so if we remain in the westerly flow expected then these should be among the milder days. The actual prediction for 24-25 Dec is for a foggy, drizzly southeast to south flow warming up slowly, so temps on Christmas Eve and Day likely to be in the fairly mild 6 to 8 C range.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My research model indicates temperatures above normal through much of the period of 19 to 31 Dec and into the first week of January. Whether any of that will be record high remains to be seen, probably more like "mild to very mild" as I imagine record highs are well up into the mid-teens. I foresee values of 8 to 12 C at times. Peaks of warmth appear in the research forecast on 26-27 Dec and 31 Dec into 1 Jan, so if we remain in the westerly flow expected then these should be among the milder days. The actual prediction for 24-25 Dec is for a foggy, drizzly southeast to south flow warming up slowly, so temps on Christmas Eve and Day likely to be in the fairly mild 6 to 8 C range.

Thanks Roger...now that clears that up and I did misquote you so sorry. I think that is a good sum up and do concur

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Roger

Interesting posts by WIB about the SST situation now falling in line with the tripole setup which would lead to the -ve NAO and there is about a 1month time lag...that makes it mid Jan......any further thoughts re developments has current situ supporting your theory

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

19 Dec 0115h

Just a brief update. To answer the above question, yes I think the general run of events so far is consistent with the theory. In terms of the large-scale pattern change I expect in January, a lot of that comes from fast-moving changes that will likely not show up for several more weeks. I expect there to be quite a volatile situation over Europe by 10-20 January but whether there will be any real signs of this before then, hard to say. I actually think it will turn a little milder for a spell in early January before this change to much colder weather begins. Events around 14-15 January are high-energy and could be involved in the pattern change, so I think that will be the most exciting part of this winter. After this month, I suppose, almost anything would seem exciting.

In the current situation, I have found the S-3 field has drifted east as expected to about timing number 4.2, so that a lot of the action is shifting to Russia and eastern Europe. The actual centre of rotation for this system is currently near the border of Poland and the Czech Republic. What this means is that the next S-field upstream (S-2) can begin to impact on western Europe fairly soon, although so far its rotation seems to be reaching only the mid-Atlantic. By January we may be seeing some of the S-2 field events involved in the blocking regime over western Europe if that develops as expected.

The J-4 field has also drifted downstream to about timing number 4.0. Watch for an energy peak as J-II passes J-III just after transit at about 09z, expected location southern Sweden to Denmark.

I suspect that the GFS is underplaying development of lows along the North Atlantic storm track after the Thursday event, watch for somewhat stronger lows than depicted around 26-27 Dec then a rather different evolution through 30-31 Dec with low pressure approaching the British Isles from the west. The pattern should remain fairly mild with a weak zonal flow continuing. I am expecting just slight retrogression of the Siberian high with perhaps an accelerated westward drift after New Years.

[Roger J Smith]

01 Jan 2006 _ 2200h

Following is the January "astronomical agenda" which follows on from the December agenda in the "theory sessions" thread. This timetable of lunar events begins with 31 Dec 2005 and the new moon at 03z and goes through January 2006. Events are placed on the chart at the appropriate time of day (see top of chart for scale, 00z to 24z). Just to review, each event is either a conjunction (Moon passes gravitational source) or an opposition (Moon opposite gravitational source). For example, the SC event on 15th occurs when Moon is closest to Saturn in its orbital path, while the SO events on 2nd and 29th occur when Moon is opposite Saturn in terms of its "right ascension". Also shown on this timetable are Venus' inferior conjunction on 14 Jan, Saturn's opposition to the Sun on 27 Jan and Mercury's superior conjunction on 26 Jan. The latter occurs when Mercury moves behind the Sun (to be more precise, it moves below the Sun's disk). Daily updates will add information about the systems of satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. Although not a variable used in this model, earth is at perihelion (its closest approach to the Sun) on 04 Jan at 15z. The brightest asteroid as seen from earth, Vesta, is at opposition 05 Jan, 23z.

Astronomical Agenda Jan 2006

DATE>>>00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24

Dec31--...............NEW..............................................................

...............................

Jan01---...............................................VC...............................

.........................perigee

Jan02---.....SO...............................................NC........................

................................

Jan03---................................................................................

..............................RO...

Jan04---.UC..............................................................(earth-perihelion).........................

Jan05---................................................................................

.............................Vesta-opp

Jan06---................................................................................

.....................SpO.........

Jan07---................................................................................

....................................

Jan08---................................................................................

.....JO..MaC...................

Jan09--................................................................................

.....................................

Jan10---......A.........................................................................

.....................................

Jan11---................................................................................

....................................

Jan12---................................................................................

........N.MAX...................

Jan13---................................................................................

....................................

Jan14---.V-I.C....................................FULL.....................................

............................

Jan15---.........................................................SC.....................

...................NO...........

Jan16---................................................................................

....................................

Jan17---.............................................................UO..RC.....apogee..

............................

Jan18---................................................................................

....................................

Jan19---................................................................................

....................................

Jan20---................................................................................

....................................

Jan21---................................................................................

.........................SpC......

Jan22---................................................................................

....................................

Jan23---................................................................................

.................JC................

Jan24---...............MaO..............................................................

...................................

Jan25---......................................................A.........................

.....................................

Jan26---................................................................................

......................Me-S.C......

Jan27---......................................................S.MAX.....................

............................Sat-opp

Jan28---..VC............................................................................

......................................

Jan29---...................................................SO...NEW.....................

................................

Jan30---.............................perigee............................................

...................................

Jan31---...................................................UC.RO........................

..................................

[Roger J Smith]

13 Jan 2006 _ 1800h

An update on some field positions and dynamics as of today.

The strong arctic high on the north coast of Russia continues to give the various models a world of trouble. GFS wants to allow it to move southwest into Finland over 96h while other models continue a strong Atlantic progressive flow. I think the GFS may have the right solution as the Atlantic events all conform to diminishing zonal flow in one way or another, as I'll discuss. This means that the arctic high may be free to move as suggested, and whether the GFS has the whole picture on that remains to be seen. About two weeks ago I was thinking the high might make full contact with the developing cold trough in the eastern Atlantic or over timing line three in this theory. That is still possible although my conventional side says probably not, looks a little disconnected, but the thing is that many different elements of the model are favouring retrogression now, so with the normal pressure-building tendencies of a northern max arctic high, keep an eye on developments.

Looking at North America in some detail, the S-2 field has very clear elements displayed over a large cyclonic rotational system centred on Michigan. The inner (short period) rotating elements are all located as per the theory, with S-I and S-II over the Great Lakes, S-III and S-IV currently providing shape for a warm front across central Quebec and northern Ontario (next 12h motion retrograde), and S-V feeding additional vorticity in from northwest Ontario (next 48h will rotate through the trough and help to activate the eventual deep storm eastern US). S-VI is rotating south across western Canada and will cross some energy involved in the J-2 field over eastern Pacific. S-VII is the strong cold front that moved from Arkansas to Alabama past 24h with severe weather associated. This should continue east to around 35N 70W next 36h. Meanwhile the J-3 field is over the western Atlantic, slightly downstream from the S-2 field. Its rotational elements (anti-cyclonic) include the developing energy on the east coast of the US (J-I), a wave moving northeast across New England (J-II) and the departing low east of Newfoundland (J-IV), while J-III energy is shown as a subtropical frontal band northeast of the Bahamas.

Considerable amounts of S-field and J-field energy are converging on a zone east of the Delmarva peninsula and the short-range models have this well covered, but eventual motion of the complex storm may involve a splitting of energy on either side of south tip of Greenland around 18-20 January. This will continue to make the European forecast tough because it favours neither raging zonal flow nor a totally blocked scenario (yet). Also factoring into the energy equation is the lunar energy profile on timing lines 1 and 2. Late yesterday (see agenda) was N Max event and next 48h sees the double-centered Full and SC events, a guaranteed energy peak on all timing lines, given the near-modal 3.0 days between N Max and SC. What that means is that strong energy input is available on the same time scale as the mean flow of the energy systems implied in a global complex pattern rotation of 27-29 days. (Nine timing lines, 27/9 = 3, etc.)

Downstream over Europe, I have been following the strong low pressure events of the past 72h closely and these have acted in accordance with J-field energy. This places the J-4 field over timing line three (3.65 to be more precise). The next energy peak close to the UK will be J-II passing J-III near this location on Monday 16th. This event should develop in the low leaving Newfoundland today, and this helps to illustrate a principle of J-field energy in general. With four J-fields normally covering most of the northern hemisphere in wide rotational systems, it is normal for J-IV events to transfer energy in a trough to the downstream J-field, and you'll see this process by watching how the low evolves across 30 to 15 W on Sunday, I think. The J-IV energy in the upstream J-field will be sweeping back west around then towards its own energy loop, while the J-field over Europe gathers up most of the energy involved and redistributes it into its own energy system. This same process will be visible at other "interface locations" which are currently around the Aral Sea, east of Japan, and over the Rockies.

One final development to monitor. Later today (at 14:00z) Venus is at inferior conjunction. As part of my research, I have been tracking its signature in the atmosphere as a gradually retrogressing height anomaly currently located over northwest Quebec and northern Hudson Bay. Because this zone is often covered by a complex arctic vortex, a retrograde "high" often disappears as a separate feature and becomes more of a recognizable feature in the 500-mb anomaly map. Heights are generally 10-20 dm above normal here. Further north and west they are closer to normal, giving the arctic vortex a northern centre for time of year. This vortex has been slowly rippling west, creating new sub-centres in the western arctic.

The overall assessment for Europe is that a scenario of strong blocking may continue to develop at irregular intervals but my research indicates that February is the most likely month for the blocking to assume a true Scandinavian to Iceland to Greenland sort of appearance with a better chance for sustained easterly flow. This is because a large part of the blocking depends on the development of height anomalies associated with Mercury's move to inferior conjunction March 12th. This takes the postulated height anomalies from two harmonics on a convergent path through northern Europe. The first harmonic, a global full-northern-hemisphere retrograde motion, is represented by the feature over northern Russia, which should in theory be near Stockholm around 26 Jan (at about 4.8 as Mercury reaches superior conjunction, so half way round the system with a slight shift west for timing structure at that time). The second harmonic will be a height anomaly that builds rapidly over the central Atlantic into Iberia and France around the end of the month and then into the Baltic region to merge with the first harmonic. This process should create the massive northern latitude block expected for February. The typical response of any J-field or S-field energy in this timing sector will be a distorted energy loop largely under the block but occasionally trying to dislodge it. So that's what I will be looking for in February from a research perspective.

[The PIT]

13 Jan 2006 _ 1800h

An update on some field positions and dynamics as of today.

The strong arctic high on the north coast of Russia continues to give the various models a world of trouble. GFS wants to allow it to move southwest into Finland over 96h while other models continue a strong Atlantic progressive flow. I think the GFS may have the right solution as the Atlantic events all conform to diminishing zonal flow in one way or another, as I'll discuss. This means that the arctic high may be free to move as suggested, and whether the GFS has the whole picture on that remains to be seen. About two weeks ago I was thinking the high might make full contact with the developing cold trough in the eastern Atlantic or over timing line three in this theory. That is still possible although my conventional side says probably not, looks a little disconnected, but the thing is that many different elements of the model are favouring retrogression now, so with the normal pressure-building tendencies of a northern max arctic high, keep an eye on developments.

Looking at North America in some detail, the S-2 field has very clear elements displayed over a large cyclonic rotational system centred on Michigan. The inner (short period) rotating elements are all located as per the theory, with S-I and S-II over the Great Lakes, S-III and S-IV currently providing shape for a warm front across central Quebec and northern Ontario (next 12h motion retrograde), and S-V feeding additional vorticity in from northwest Ontario (next 48h will rotate through the trough and help to activate the eventual deep storm eastern US). S-VI is rotating south across western Canada and will cross some energy involved in the J-2 field over eastern Pacific. S-VII is the strong cold front that moved from Arkansas to Alabama past 24h with severe weather associated. This should continue east to around 35N 70W next 36h. Meanwhile the J-3 field is over the western Atlantic, slightly downstream from the S-2 field. Its rotational elements (anti-cyclonic) include the developing energy on the east coast of the US (J-I), a wave moving northeast across New England (J-II) and the departing low east of Newfoundland (J-IV), while J-III energy is shown as a subtropical frontal band northeast of the Bahamas.

Considerable amounts of S-field and J-field energy are converging on a zone east of the Delmarva peninsula and the short-range models have this well covered, but eventual motion of the complex storm may involve a splitting of energy on either side of south tip of Greenland around 18-20 January. This will continue to make the European forecast tough because it favours neither raging zonal flow nor a totally blocked scenario (yet). Also factoring into the energy equation is the lunar energy profile on timing lines 1 and 2. Late yesterday (see agenda) was N Max event and next 48h sees the double-centered Full and SC events, a guaranteed energy peak on all timing lines, given the near-modal 3.0 days between N Max and SC. What that means is that strong energy input is available on the same time scale as the mean flow of the energy systems implied in a global complex pattern rotation of 27-29 days. (Nine timing lines, 27/9 = 3, etc.)

Downstream over Europe, I have been following the strong low pressure events of the past 72h closely and these have acted in accordance with J-field energy. This places the J-4 field over timing line three (3.65 to be more precise). The next energy peak close to the UK will be J-II passing J-III near this location on Monday 16th. This event should develop in the low leaving Newfoundland today, and this helps to illustrate a principle of J-field energy in general. With four J-fields normally covering most of the northern hemisphere in wide rotational systems, it is normal for J-IV events to transfer energy in a trough to the downstream J-field, and you'll see this process by watching how the low evolves across 30 to 15 W on Sunday, I think. The J-IV energy in the upstream J-field will be sweeping back west around then towards its own energy loop, while the J-field over Europe gathers up most of the energy involved and redistributes it into its own energy system. This same process will be visible at other "interface locations" which are currently around the Aral Sea, east of Japan, and over the Rockies.

One final development to monitor. Later today (at 14:00z) Venus is at inferior conjunction. As part of my research, I have been tracking its signature in the atmosphere as a gradually retrogressing height anomaly currently located over northwest Quebec and northern Hudson Bay. Because this zone is often covered by a complex arctic vortex, a retrograde "high" often disappears as a separate feature and becomes more of a recognizable feature in the 500-mb anomaly map. Heights are generally 10-20 dm above normal here. Further north and west they are closer to normal, giving the arctic vortex a northern centre for time of year. This vortex has been slowly rippling west, creating new sub-centres in the western arctic.

The overall assessment for Europe is that a scenario of strong blocking may continue to develop at irregular intervals but my research indicates that February is the most likely month for the blocking to assume a true Scandinavian to Iceland to Greenland sort of appearance with a better chance for sustained easterly flow. This is because a large part of the blocking depends on the development of height anomalies associated with Mercury's move to inferior conjunction March 12th. This takes the postulated height anomalies from two harmonics on a convergent path through northern Europe. The first harmonic, a global full-northern-hemisphere retrograde motion, is represented by the feature over northern Russia, which should in theory be near Stockholm around 26 Jan (at about 4.8 as Mercury reaches superior conjunction, so half way round the system with a slight shift west for timing structure at that time). The second harmonic will be a height anomaly that builds rapidly over the central Atlantic into Iberia and France around the end of the month and then into the Baltic region to merge with the first harmonic. This process should create the massive northern latitude block expected for February. The typical response of any J-field or S-field energy in this timing sector will be a distorted energy loop largely under the block but occasionally trying to dislodge it. So that's what I will be looking for in February from a research perspective.

I'm not being funny but how about summerising it in a small breaK down. Otherwise it sounds like management speak.

[Roger J Smith]

Sorry Pit, I see your point but this particular thread is for the interest of a few people (I'm estimating about 20-30 on the basis of the PMs that I get) who are taking me up on my promise to share this new theoretical framework. When I try to use some of this material in the general discussions on the GFS etc, then I do try to boil it down, but since the theory is not widely known this amounts to mysterious references to something off-topic. The other reason this was a little long and rambling was that I have not been posting anything daily as I should, perhaps, then each day's episode would be shorter. You have to admit, it is nice and quiet in this room compared to all the shouting over in the main section.

[Roger J Smith]

15 Jan 2130h

Update on the eastern North America storm with S-field analysis. As of 18z the centre of low was over southeast New Brunswick moving slowly north. The S-field energy loops are probably going to be critical in how this storm evolves over 96h. The S-VII energy is currently located near 38N 62W moving northeast towards Iceland. The S-VI energy is seen on satellite imagery as a hangback feature near 40N 70W which will slowly catch up to the S-VII energy, moving in a cyclonic arc towards the southeast coast of Greenland. S-V energy is near the low centre while S-IV energy is over central Gulf of St Lawrence. Since the inner three energy loops will tend to be dragged along by the centre of mass of this system, we will move to a discussion of where the system should proceed now.

The low centre will probably move slowly northeast towards the north tip of Newfoundland (island) and from there towards the southeast coast of Greenland. There should be a certain amount of cyclonic rotation of troughing from the S-IV and S-V loops towards northern Quebec next 24-36h. This will move the complex storm towards the south tip of Greenland with some splitting likely around Tuesday.

In this research, when an energy centre tries to move directly across Greenland, what normally happens is that the centre fills and in terms of surface pressures moves around the coast of the ice-covered semi-continent, while any high pressure shown over Greenland dissipates almost instantly. This is the signature of a slight fall in 700 mb pressures with the energy centre sweeping across the ice cap. The filling process represents the remnant of the low's circulation moving northeast but the storm retains similar potential which can be redeveloped when the centre emerges on the north or west coast of Greenland. In this scenario, the S-VII centre should then capture most of the energy and move over water towards Jan Mayen and then towards the north pole.

At the present time, progs are suggesting that the low will sweep a considerable amount of warm air northeast and then this will basically fan out without much further support around Thursday, to be reconfigured into the J-field currently operating over western Europe. Around that time, most of the J-field energy will be dissipated from its current concentration near northwest Ireland. This is the process being played out Monday-Tuesday with the collapsing trough around the North Sea. The entire process should serve to hold off any further retrogression of arctic highs over Russia until the bulk of the S-field rotation has moved beyond 75N around the end of the week. From there on, it is possible for retrogression to resume at some point. With periods of 16 and 21 days, these rotational elements should spend about a week to ten days from 21 to 31 Jan circulating back through northern Canada into eastern North America.

People may wonder about a 1947 analogue here, since Jupiter and Saturn (and Mercury) are all at roughly the same position as in 1947. The differences are as follows. The J-field energy seems to be located in roughly the same position as a similar date in 1947 (16 Jan 47 was a mild SW flow over UK). The S-fields, however, were roughly at the opposite end of their rotational cycle. This event where S-VI overtakes S-VII occurs every 63 days, and in 1947 it was occurring at the bottom of the loop rather than at the eastern extension of the loop, but also the dates were around Dec 24 and Feb 22. The situation with the blocking Mercury field should be almost identical, as Mercury was just four days ahead of this year's schedule, meaning the 1947 block-development phase in late January should have been running about 4 days ahead of 2006. However the magnetic field has shifted NW by 500 km since then, which tends to cancel out retrogression differences of about 4-5 days.

The overall prognosis for the eventual cold snap is that all things considered, development of this should gradually begin in about a week and could peak some time in February. Whether it turns into something as noteworthy as 1947 remains to be seen. The one wild card here is the different location of the Mars fields as discussed in the theory sessions. These tend to anchor the subtropical highs, and the Ma-2 field is currently located just west of the mid-Atlantic surface high on today's charts. Further motion of this should be almost due north over time but when compared to the Mars field situation in 1947, the index values for 2006 are actually slightly favourable. Western Europe was in the wider and stronger Ma-4 field in the winter of 1947. Also the Venus-field has retrogressed to timing line one (it is basically over the cold high in northern Ontario, just east of timing line one) and when compared to 1947 there should be little difference for Europe as the 1947 V-field location was near Alaska.

[Roger J Smith]

16 Jan 2006 _ 1955z

Brief update on the current J-field dynamics. J-4 field continues to be near timing line 3, placed at 3.75 as of today. (To review, 3.5 would be on timing line 3, so a quarter of the way east towards timing line 4).

This shows that the timing "structure" is retrogressing since the J-3 field should be closer to 3.9 than 3.75 as of its position at 3.5 on 01 January (period 399 days for one complete progressive rotation of the n.hemisphere). This timing structure retrogression is due to Venus' retrograde motion pulling all timing lines back about 0.2 units, a situation which should continue for 30-45 days before restoring to equilibrium.

The J-II and J-III energy tracks in this (and other) J-field are visible on satellite imagery. In this case, the J-II centre over north central Scotland has passed the J-III centre near Iceland in the past 6 hours. The J-I centre is the trailing cold front south of Bristol, since J-I is currently moving behind Jupiter. The inner rotation features are seen over central England. These are J-V and GRS energy peaks which tend to rotate over a 100-150 km diameter oval when the J-field is active. Since there is an "overtake" of J-V by GRS at about 2315z near their transit positions, I'm looking for a flare-up in the rainfall bands over Wales and the Midlands around that time. There is a slight risk of thunder throughout the system at about this time (2200-0100).

Must go off to other work, more tomorrow.

Edited January 16, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 Jan 2006 _ 1955z

The J-II and J-III energy tracks in this (and other) J-field are visible on satellite imagery. In this case, the J-II centre over north central Scotland has passed the J-III centre near Iceland in the past 6 hours. The J-I centre is the trailing cold front south of Bristol, since J-I is currently moving behind Jupiter. The inner rotation features are seen over central England. These are J-V and GRS energy peaks which tend to rotate over a 100-150 km diameter oval when the J-field is active. Since there is an "overtake" of J-V by GRS at about 2315z near their transit positions, I'm looking for a flare-up in the rainfall bands over Wales and the Midlands around that time. There is a slight risk of thunder throughout the system at about this time (2200-0100).

Must go off to other work, more tomorrow.

So Roger

What happened is close to spot on then re your analysis if I have read it right. Good stuff

BFTP

[Weather-history]

The brightest asteroid as seen from earth, Vesta, is at opposition 05 Jan, 23z.

I fail to see the significance of Vesta being at opposition?

I can't see how a body of about a diameter of 530km and million miles away from Earth would warrant mention or have any effect on Earth?

Edited January 31, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Roger J Smith]

Actually, I listed Vesta just as an astronomical event of some interest, since Vesta is the brightest asteroid visible from earth. If you've followed the discussion on my research, you'll know that I have posted one or two profiles of field sectors in the 150-year temperature record at Toronto, one of which can be found in the "theory sessions" and which shows a fairly strong signal from Jupiter which indicates that in the background of the temperature variations over that period, there is a four-peak signal indicating the earth's passage through four components of the J-field system. These appear to have an amplitude of about 0.4 C degrees on a smoothed basis, or 1.5 C degrees on a daily raw-data basis. Since these field sectors are postulated to have flexible curvature that varies with Jupiter's orbit, a more precise and larger amplitude signal can be derived from similar portions of Jupiter's orbit.

I have done the same analysis for each of the planets and found similar signals of varying amplitudes in the temperature data. For completeness, I investigated ten of the larger asteroids and found slight curves of the same general structure, but so small in most cases that one would not expect to find any recognizable atmospheric features involved in them. However, for Vesta, there was an unexpected strong signal in the position of the "Vesta-2" field, unlike any of the others. In other words, there is something in the background of all these weak cycles that creates a strong signal at the point where the earth is approaching opposition with Vesta. If there is a Vesta-2 field sector, it would now be located near timing line 2. I am continuing to research this because, like Mr Data was saying, asteroids are so small and distant that even if you accepted a 1-degree C modulation from Jupiter or Saturn, while this might imply fairly strong cycles from closer Mars and Venus, or even Mercury, it leaves the asteroids in the vicinity of .01 C, something that would be lost in the data even over 150 years. The fact that Vesta is associated with this stronger signal (about every 1.4 years due to the fairly rapid motion of Vesta at 2.3 AU) puzzled me, as I was expecting this analysis to show negligible returns. Whether it creeps in from some other source as yet unrecognized, or is perhaps some real phenomenon associated with Vesta, remains to be seen, but it may have something to do with interactions between Vesta and the Mars-field system, and it may therefore be entering the data set from a limited subset of larger signals that occur if Mars fields are co-located.

Signals from the larger asteroids, Ceres, Juno and Hygiea, were also statistically significant and a little larger than I was expecting to find in the data. Other asteroids were essentially zero-signal in the analysis. So there may be some concept of interaction with J-fields to study. The very small asteroid Eros which makes close approaches to the earth every 9-10 years also showed a signal which I am currently just beginning to look at in detail.

As I've said, this is a theory of large numbers of small factors which, standing alone, would be insignificant. The larger variations that are seen in the atmosphere appear to be cases where five to ten of these smaller cycles coincide and build up a strong signal. Because of the complexity of this research, I think it may take another fifty years if someone happens to take up the cause in about 10-20 years when I will probably be "obsolete" in research terms.

Will be posting the February astronomical agenda at about 0600.

[Roger J Smith]

Astronomical Agenda February 2006

DATE>>>00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24

Feb01--................................................................................

......................................

Feb02---................................................................................

..................................

Feb03---.....SpO........................................................................

.................................

Feb04---................................................................................

....................JO.............

Feb05--.............................................................................A..

......................MaC.........

Feb06---................................................................................

....................................

Feb07---................................................................................

....................................

Feb08---........................................................N.MAX...................

................................

Feb09---................................................................................

....................................

Feb10---................................................................................

.................................

Feb11---...............................................................SC...............

....................NO...........

Feb12---................................................................................

....................................

Feb13---...........FULL.................................................................

..........................RC......

Feb14---.apogee...UO....................................................................

..............................

Feb15---................................................................................

....................................

Feb16---................................................................................

....................................

Feb17---................................................................................

..................................

Feb18---................SpC.............................................................

...................................

Feb19---................................................................................

......................................

Feb20---.................................JC.............................................

..................................

Feb21---................................................................................

........A.........................

Feb22---..............................................................................Ma

O...................................

Feb23---...........................................................................S.MAX

..............................

Feb24---................................................................................

.................VC...............

Feb25---................................................................................

.......................SO.........

Feb26--......................................................NC........................

.............................

Feb27---................................................................................

......RO....perigee............

Feb28---.NEW........UC..................................................................

............................................

This is the updated astronomical agenda for February. The N Max, FULL, JC and NEW events should provide the strongest lunar-geomagnetic energy for storm development. The J-field dynamics during the month favour storm development each Tuesday of the month, with J-I catching up to J-III then J-II which have made transits around the start of the day each Tuesday. This should further enhance the FULL and NEW events this month since these are on Monday or Tuesday.

To apply this in more detail, the J-4 field has been active near the UK over timing line three this winter. The current location is around 4.1 which places the focus for energy over Scandinavia. The J-4 field has been partially blocked out since 20 January by the retrogressing Mercury block which is the cause of the chain of high pressure from western Siberia to northwest Russia, a feature which keeps detaching strong highs that move southwest. It seems that this motion is correlated with weaknesses in the J-field and also with cyclonic rotation around the S-3 field which has been drifting through Europe and is now at 4.3 (meaning almost to timing line 4 where it would be timed 4.5).

The S-field rotation over Europe has proven to be a little further south than analogue cases; the recent strong storm that formed over southern France and northern Spain was the S-VI rotation which almost missed the UK altogether, reinforced when S-V moved past S-VI. Whether this southward displacement continues or not will determine the outcome of further snowfall opportunities for the southeast of England, watch around 10 Feb when S-VI next rotates around the top of its cyclonic loop.

Upstream, the S-2 field is now over timing line 2. This can be followed in detail this month as the field should edge ever closer to the UK. I think that March will see a lot of active weather once the Mercury block retrogresses to Greenland and the S-2 field moves downstream towards timing line 3. At this time, a strong storm is forming over the Atlantic south of NS, with S-VI energy moving to the transit position which as I've discussed earlier places the energy SSE of its energy centre or rotational centre. This centre is constantly displaced by the complex interactions of the larger elements, mainly S-V, S-VI and S-VIII. On 2 Feb at about 12z, S-V will catch up to S-VI at the transit position, which will lead to very strong development of this storm near 42N 50W south of Newfoundland's Avalon peninsula. From now to Thursday, you can follow this storm in detail using the Canadian weather site at

weatheroffice@ec.gc.ca

(It goes without saying perhaps that my analysis is not going to show up on this link, but you can watch the S-V energy which is currently in the form of a trailing upper trough over southern Quebec phase with the already deep centre). This storm is also being guided by J-field dynamics as the J-3 field is over timing sector 2.1, or just a little over halfway from timing line one to two. This is why January has been so mild in the northeast states and southern Ontario, but as this J-field edges east, a trough should open up over the central portions of North America. The next J-field, J-2, is now battering western North America with a constant succession of high-energy storms, especially as J-2 and S-1 fields are co-located by recent analysis. This means that each lunar event crossing timing line 8 around 140W is being energized by focused J-field and S-field events. In the next 3-4 hours, at my location, we are expecting storm force to locally hurricane-force wind gusts with the NEW+SO event that crossed timing line 8 yesterday. This is actually the fourth strong low in about seven days, and heavy snow has been falling above 800 metres for two weeks now, leading to the best ski-ing conditions in many years at almost all alpine resorts in BC and WA, even though it has been quite mild and wet down at sea level.

Further reports will advance this analysis. I'm expecting a large-scale change in the current models when the S-VII energy moving southeast across N America reaches timing line 2 around 6 Feb at the S-VII transit associated with the S-2 field. When the S-VI storm moves northeast towards Iceland, this event should be forming about 48 hours before N MAX, a situation which could lead to explosive development as this field sector "hands off" energy to the downstream J-field. In this theory, the size of the J-field and S-field sectors is such that they cover almost the entire hemisphere in total, but small gaps develop between them. At present, the four S-fields are generally located either with or just downstream from the four J-fields. Therefore in general, strong events reaching the eastern margins of each combined field sector tend to split into one component that stays in the generating field sector and one which is "handed off" to the downstream energy flow. Around 5-6 Feb the J-4 field will have most of its energy located west of the rotational centre (over Europe), in the eastern Atlantic, so handover should involve strong development around 20-30 W at that time.