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Daily Astro-climatology Report


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

UPDATE _ 05 Feb 08 _ 0115 GMT

The current complex low pressure system and fronts derive energy from the S Max lunar event with JC (4:06z) and VC (4:12z) support. The current position of timing line 3 has returned close to its equilibrium after being further east all through January. Now it appears to be through Ireland and southern England running NW-SE. This is just very slightly east of its equilibrium position through Valentia and just west of Cornwall. The J-field system has remained over the region and is still reaching transit positions near the lunar timing line three position (J-field timing is independent of lunar).

Based on radar at 01z, the signature of J-III in eclipse can be seen to the south of J-I and J-II approaching their transits. The overlap energy has already peaked as J-I passed J-II late 4th.

The next strong event after this cluster is the new moon timed for Thursday 7th at 04z ... with SO+RO events tagging along behind by about 24h. This should lead to an open wave with a strong leading centre and a fairly strong following wave. The J-field has its next energy peak with the III/I/II transit complex from Thursday night to Friday night. Hence storm activity by late Thursday should be fairly intense in general around the hemisphere.

Looking elsewhere, timing line one is currently in what I call a fast rebound situation. The Mercury retrograde block was fighting with S-field low pressure across northern Hudson Bay, so the result was chaos, and the next round there will be strong high pressure building, as the Mercury block lifts off the northern hemisphere briefly due to overshoot at 4 degrees inclination, then falls back in around 70N 120W. This should lead to rapid high pressure development late this week and through the middle of February in that general area, retrograding towards my location.

Timing line one will see a near-record surge of warmth with the S Max event as it slowly tracks to west-shifted timing line two (this is west-shifted due to recent rebound of magnetic field variation). Temperatures are heading for 20-25 C in DCA and PHL, 15-20 C in NYC next 24 to 48 hours.

Timing line nine through Texas n.w. to Alberta is fairly active also but when timing line one is very active, it usually collects split flow remnants and timing line eight to my west here, gets very active in phase. Strong low crossing that timing line as with timing line six in western Pacific at current time.

Next update probably around 7 Feb.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

UPDATE _ 22 Feb 0930z

In the past week timing line 3 experienced blocking so that the strong N Max event was shifted northwest to a position between Iceland and Greenland while the UK was under a strong high. Although this chilled under radiational cooling to give some very low temperatures in the east, I don't see much of a field sector movement at play here, possibly the blocking developed in the J-field sectors because there was also diminished activity for a time near timing lines one and two. This episode is now over, apparently and "normal service" has been resumed with J-field activity now showing a slight eastward drift as expected since last updated. This afternoon's radar should give a fix on J-III and J-I energy components moving towards ENE with about a six hour lag for the J-I to reach transit relative to J-III, then later tonight J-II moves through, so I will be watching for these tracks in roughly parallel and equally spaced zones across the UK, north central then a bit further north than central if you see what I'm getting at (58, 54, 56 N roughly, in that order). These events have been further energized by the connected lunar events RC, Full and SC. Look for a three-part wave shaping on low pressure systems the past 24 hours to see how these connect, they are spaced at about 12 hour intervals so that they are conjoined in this system.

Of more interest perhaps, the S-2 field is now about to reach a large peak of activity. The driving forces in the cyclonic rotation, S-VI and S-VII, are both approaching transit. The field sector has retrograded slightly since last update, not unexpectedly, as the Mercury retrograde has dragged timing lines 2 and 1 back to west of equilibrium. The current analysis shows S-VI energy near nw MS and S-VII near n FL. This will phase on the 25th in the eastern Atlantic after both energy peaks pass transit and thus identify the field-sector timing line position, which looks to be about the equilibrium for timing line one (although timing line one now west of that position). S-V will pass both in the next 24-36 hours leading to a strong peak in the activity of the southeast US storm, then a second pass will take place around the 28th when all players are past transit and heading north around the large cyclonic loop, west of Ireland or in the case of S-VII possibly right over Ireland. This is the S-field energy contribution (a large one) to the developing storm of interest on 27-28 Feb. In the meantime, watch for the peak of S-field action around 25th 06z when S-VI slowly overtakes S-VII (the period of this is 64 days). These satellite orbits are in an almost 4:3 harmonic and over about 12 years, the overtake point retrogrades around a circle in clockwise direction, so that we can say that in about 1.5 years the overtake will occur at transit, so will show up SSE of the energy centre in the Atlantic and North American timing zones where most timing lines run NNW-SSE. At present the overtake occurs about due east of the rotational centre, if slightly south of that.

Clearly there would be an application of this rather large energy distribution regime to cyclical analysis but I should caution that although you can go back 12 years and find similar timing, the S-field sectors would be in vastly different places then, so the best analogue would be 60 years. Then you would have to adjust the dates, the analogues would not fall on the same dates as this year. I would have to calculate some dates to have a look at that, so perhaps I will be doing that later today, but it would be interesting to see if one could spot the same process at work some time in the late winter or early spring months of 1948. NMP position then was 12-15 degrees south and east of where it is now, which would imply that these processes would be at least a little further south and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Just a brief update to the above, the S-2 field system has shown that it is elongated now by the retrograde episode, so that when its centre of energy so to speak gets east of about timing line two, it accelerates east. All the component features are now east of the timing position so this large complex series of cyclonic energy loops has swept across the Atlantic very rapidly and the S-VI/S-VII pass seems likely to happen at about half-way from timing line 2 to 3 around 50N 25W (at 06z) ... the low centre is somewhat further north as energy from S-IV and S-V has overtaken the main action and is contributing to the overall low, but the real action with it is probably near the "triple point" feature which will represent the S-VI / S-VII overtake point. The encouraging thing about this (to me, at least) is that such a development could have been predicted from the known position of this field about two months ago ... meanwhile, could add this, the next field sector upstream, S-1 is over western N America and acting slightly blocked, the energy seems to be interacting with the retrograde Mercury block and I am taking copious notes because I think this could be modelled, it's basically like the energy lifts off the surface and then reappears further around the loop (in my region so we are benefitting with some dry weather that actually fooled the computer models even 72h ago, the forecasts were calling for rain yesterday and showers today, but it has remained clear and dry).

Anyway, something to note and then watch for later, as I said the S-fields have this long cycle of about 64 days with S-VI overtaking S-VII, so from now until then, will be watching for the expected eastward drift of S-2 and S-1 field sectors (note once again Roman numerals refer to satellites, ordinary numbers to field sectors in space). The S-2 field should drift across Europe so that next time we see this overtake it should be in Russia. What this also means is that Europe will increasingly come under the influence of the northerly winds associated with S-V to S-VII positions on the west side of the energy loop. Then the S-1 energy loop or field sector should be over central to eastern N America by late April the next time this overtake happens (should be April 29 around 00z, my notes are elsewhere). That should mean a big severe weather outbreak for late April as the core of this field rotation should be near Kansas to Iowa at that point.

I've got to add that I am very excited by the developments in the research and hoping that I can get a bit ahead of my observational work load to start developing some forecast model type programs and generate some daily maps well out beyond FI (which seems to be about 72-96h this week). I commented elsewhere that the models are changing rather quickly when it comes to Friday-Saturday and previously advertised cold advection. Logically speaking, if most of this warming is S-field linking to J-field as it appears, then with the cyclonic rotation and the return of J-III strong energy to western Europe by Friday 29th, the overall effect should be just to flatten out the flow beyond Tuesday and then return it to a mild southwesterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Anyway, something to note and then watch for later, as I said the S-fields have this long cycle of about 64 days with S-VI overtaking S-VII, so from now until then, will be watching for the expected eastward drift of S-2 and S-1 field sectors (note once again Roman numerals refer to satellites, ordinary numbers to field sectors in space). The S-2 field should drift across Europe so that next time we see this overtake it should be in Russia. What this also means is that Europe will increasingly come under the influence of the northerly winds associated with S-V to S-VII positions on the west side of the energy loop. Then the S-1 energy loop or field sector should be over central to eastern N America by late April the next time this overtake happens (should be April 29 around 00z, my notes are elsewhere). That should mean a big severe weather outbreak for late April as the core of this field rotation should be near Kansas to Iowa at that point.

. Logically speaking, if most of this warming is S-field linking to J-field as it appears, then with the cyclonic rotation and the return of J-III strong energy to western Europe by Friday 29th, the overall effect should be just to flatten out the flow beyond Tuesday and then return it to a mild southwesterly.

Roger

To clarify the northerly influenceis timed for when? And this severe outbreak is for Kansas and Iowa? Its been a long long week 14hr days, working rest days and a 2 year old wanting to get his dad up early...my brain hurts. :D If you don't reply by tomorrow lunch time I will have re read and hopefully absorbed. If you can at some stage get some maps up then that will be tops.

regards

Fred

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Fred, you may have had time to work this out, the severe weather outbreak would be timed for around 28-29 April although I have a list of earlier dates related more to J-field and lunar energy peaks. This is just a different sort of set-up from an S-field energy peak down the road.

The northerlies for western Europe should set in as the S-field drifts further east and large energy components rotate around that, so I would say this sets up for dates such as 6-10 March and later in March although not as focused then, the large energy components of S-VI and S-VII are slowly decoupling and reach their opposite positions after 32 days (from the 25th), so that would be March 28.

Meanwhile, a few updates. The large S-field energy peak came and went, dissipating now over Scandinavia to Greenland, and the energy will largely disappear as it encounters the Greenland obstacle, returning to play as a northerly component that should appear on forecast maps west to south of Greenland in about a week. However, the upstream S-field will also be in play for Europe at this point and catch western Europe with its reverse flow. I am expecting a rapid eastward transfer of all field sectors in mid-March as the Mercury retrograde moves to eastern Asia and timing lines reset to east of equilibrium.

The current approaching storm is a blend of the strong A event (this event has been strong for several cycles now partly due to timing and partly due to maximum alignment at occultation). The last A event was that 948 mb low that grazed the Orkneys on the first of February. This one is timed for 06z but timing lines are now further west. The J-field, which was weakened by the stronger S-field energy peak, is now back in business and contributes a strong J-III / J-I transit coupling late Friday, with the J-II wave following on. J-IV is past eclipse now and this energy is dragging the complex back to the west slightly so this induces the reload factor seen on the short-term progs.

The next energy peak after the A event is the S Max+JC complex on the 4th-5th, apparently this is now being picked up as a strong signal by the GFS. I am not sure that the storm will be as bad as the monster shown on the 12z GFS, but something perhaps 10 mbs weaker could easily develop out of these energy fields and synoptics.

Here's a more general question, why El Nino and La Nina events from this research perspective? I have concluded that the El Nino events represent cases of J-field blocking. The La Nina seems more irregular and I have not really worked out any hypotheses about it. The La Nina occurs in general when heights are depressed from China to North America without large ridges over the Pacific. This would imply that the la Nina needs some odd combination of field sectors further south than normal (so prograde planetary fields at low latitudes) and blocking well north of the Pacific (so retrograde sectors higher than average). The La Nina should fade out this summer, I think, because I can foresee large ridges developing from the slowly advancing S-fields and Ma-field sectors over Europe at present. The J-field sectors may remain a bit south of average as Jupiter has its perihelion (making for stronger sectors) at a low latitude (making for southerly displacement). These two factors cancel out in terms of latitude but combine to suggest a hot summer and long Indian summer for North America in 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

KW, these energy systems are generally applicable to travelling low pressure systems in the mid-latitudes. Hurricanes and tropical storms appear to be from an entirely separate category of interference in the system, at least up to the extra-tropical transition stage. While in the tropics, I believe these storms are created by disturbances in the inner solar system portion of J-field and S-field sectors. The most likely cause would be inner planets moving through these sectors, and I do have some data showing peaks in frequency around the times that Mercury and Venus would be in the field sectors. Solar system geometry is such that similar energy peaks in winter would be at higher latitudes and therefore not in the tropical zone at all. Rather than trying to prove this in one paragraph in a theory discussion, I will just say this -- as the tropical season gets underway later this year, I will try to relate the theory to each storm. It's not the part of the theory which is necessarily at the highest level of development even for N America yet, so fairly speculative, and I don't want to tie too much to this detail as the main interest I have so far is in connecting the theory to severe weather forecasting.

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  • 4 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

From this theoretical perspective, here is what the evolution of Bertha represents in the solar system magnetic field.

The storm is performing an arc relative to timing line two, having almost reached timing number 2.0 near Bermuda recently, but in general this suggests a field interaction for an inferior planet approaching conjunction and a planetary field sector for an outer planet that the earth has recently passed. Or a reflection of something from another timing sector as per the theory, any given primary effect can have at least one secondary reflection.

The most likely candidate is Mercury in a Mars field sector. The symptoms of this include small size of system, general weak to moderate intensity, existence of a non-tropical vortex with which the tropical system interacts. Visualize that the disturbance generated near the Sun by Mercury travels outward in the Mars field sector and approaches Mars. The disturbance is then forced to go around the planet. We are at that stage now. Looking at the actual SSMF geometry, with Mars gradually approaching conjunction after a winter opposition, this is likely to be the Ma-1 field sector dragging along behind the Ma-2 sector which probably crossed Europe (due to prograde drift of outer field effects) in May. This relates to my LRF wherein I mentioned a near normal early summer and warmer than normal late summer based mainly on Ma-1 field progression from central to eastern Atlantic. This field sector is well ahead of the earth and casts a reflection, Ma-3 into the far side of the solar system where Mercury is now. So the primary system would likely be a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific, and this is the reflection system. I've noted these reflections more often than not during the past few seasons. This theory cannot help much with tracking beyond Mars (or beyond the vortex in atmospheric analogue) because analogue cases have either stalled out, looped erratically (disturbance trapped in the Martian magnetic environment) or swung around and headed onwards. A track towards northern Scotland would imply that the disturbance was heading further behind the earth's orbital position. At whatever point the system becomes merged with an existing low in the westerlies, then its evolution is lost to the system and absorbed into the other system variables which does not necessarily mean that the magnetic disturbance no longer exists, but rather that it is too weak to register a signature.

With all the reading I have been doing on ice age climate and Milankovitch, I made a very interesting realization recently.

During the core of the LGM in the recent ice age, precession of the earth's axis had us facing the other direction during northern hsmisphere winter (visualize this -- the winter sky now has Orion high in the south at midnight, but in the LGM Orion was low in the sky in midsummer at midnight). But the inclination of our orbit had not changed much, so Mercury was at that time making its retrograde motions at much lower declinations than in the modern climate era. We were being overtaken by Mercury in its current low-latitude summer overtake positions. Presumably there was also a stronger magnetic field and it may have been focused on a pole well to the south of the recent locations. Taken together, these circumstances would mean that retrograde fields in the ice age climate would likely have tracked well south of their modern subarctic tracking in the winter season. They may have assisted in the displacement of the westerlies for long periods in midwinter, and forced the glacial jet stream extremely far to the south especially over the Atlantic if the NMP was in either Ungava or Scotland to Fennoscandia (in either case, over a large ice cap). There are implications for retrograde Venus fields as well, but the dynamics here are different and I am still at a very rudimentary stage of identifying Venus-field signals in the modern climate. I suspect that Venus field sectors are very large which may overwhelm the scale of our atmospheric system and just form more background noise (after all, in this theory, it goes without saying that we are always in an "earth-field" sector and this is enormous compared to the others, however it is almost constant so it basically just gets us from absolute zero to 285 Kelvin or so, and the other field sectors add or subtract very small but significant parts from that.)

This idea that the Mercury fields may drastically alter during a glacial epoch would not be some rival theory to the Milankovitch theory, rather it is a sort of second-order variation on that theory, a reinforcement of it. As my research indicates that Mercury retrogression is nearing extinction in the recent decades of high-latitude NMP positions, the interaction with the magnetic field is probably as important as the celestial latitude factor, but it is hard for me to visualize an ice age climate that does not reinforce a stronger magnetic field just from all the reflection of incoming particles alone.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
From this theoretical perspective, here is what the evolution of Bertha represents in the solar system magnetic field.

The storm is performing an arc relative to timing line two, having almost reached timing number 2.0 near Bermuda recently, but in general this suggests a field interaction for an inferior planet approaching conjunction and a planetary field sector for an outer planet that the earth has recently passed. Or a reflection of something from another timing sector as per the theory, any given primary effect can have at least one secondary reflection.

The most likely candidate is Mercury in a Mars field sector. The symptoms of this include small size of system, general weak to moderate intensity, existence of a non-tropical vortex with which the tropical system interacts. Visualize that the disturbance generated near the Sun by Mercury travels outward in the Mars field sector and approaches Mars. The disturbance is then forced to go around the planet. We are at that stage now. Looking at the actual SSMF geometry, with Mars gradually approaching conjunction after a winter opposition, this is likely to be the Ma-1 field sector dragging along behind the Ma-2 sector which probably crossed Europe (due to prograde drift of outer field effects) in May. This relates to my LRF wherein I mentioned a near normal early summer and warmer than normal late summer based mainly on Ma-1 field progression from central to eastern Atlantic. This field sector is well ahead of the earth and casts a reflection, Ma-3 into the far side of the solar system where Mercury is now. So the primary system would likely be a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific, and this is the reflection system. I've noted these reflections more often than not during the past few seasons. This theory cannot help much with tracking beyond Mars (or beyond the vortex in atmospheric analogue) because analogue cases have either stalled out, looped erratically (disturbance trapped in the Martian magnetic environment) or swung around and headed onwards. A track towards northern Scotland would imply that the disturbance was heading further behind the earth's orbital position. At whatever point the system becomes merged with an existing low in the westerlies, then its evolution is lost to the system and absorbed into the other system variables which does not necessarily mean that the magnetic disturbance no longer exists, but rather that it is too weak to register a signature.

With all the reading I have been doing on ice age climate and Milankovitch, I made a very interesting realization recently.

During the core of the LGM in the recent ice age, precession of the earth's axis had us facing the other direction during northern hsmisphere winter (visualize this -- the winter sky now has Orion high in the south at midnight, but in the LGM Orion was low in the sky in midsummer at midnight). But the inclination of our orbit had not changed much, so Mercury was at that time making its retrograde motions at much lower declinations than in the modern climate era. We were being overtaken by Mercury in its current low-latitude summer overtake positions. Presumably there was also a stronger magnetic field and it may have been focused on a pole well to the south of the recent locations. Taken together, these circumstances would mean that retrograde fields in the ice age climate would likely have tracked well south of their modern subarctic tracking in the winter season. They may have assisted in the displacement of the westerlies for long periods in midwinter, and forced the glacial jet stream extremely far to the south especially over the Atlantic if the NMP was in either Ungava or Scotland to Fennoscandia (in either case, over a large ice cap). There are implications for retrograde Venus fields as well, but the dynamics here are different and I am still at a very rudimentary stage of identifying Venus-field signals in the modern climate. I suspect that Venus field sectors are very large which may overwhelm the scale of our atmospheric system and just form more background noise (after all, in this theory, it goes without saying that we are always in an "earth-field" sector and this is enormous compared to the others, however it is almost constant so it basically just gets us from absolute zero to 285 Kelvin or so, and the other field sectors add or subtract very small but significant parts from that.)

This idea that the Mercury fields may drastically alter during a glacial epoch would not be some rival theory to the Milankovitch theory, rather it is a sort of second-order variation on that theory, a reinforcement of it. As my research indicates that Mercury retrogression is nearing extinction in the recent decades of high-latitude NMP positions, the interaction with the magnetic field is probably as important as the celestial latitude factor, but it is hard for me to visualize an ice age climate that does not reinforce a stronger magnetic field just from all the reflection of incoming particles alone.

Talking of magnetic fields, how much is known about circumpolar electric currents in the Southern Ocean, and in the Arctic Ocean? It is assumed that the earth's magnetic field is based in the sluggish mantle currents, and the iron core, which is above the curie point temperature for iron. Ionospheric currents often shift the earth's magnetic field readily, and unexpectedly, allowing spurious aurorae. By analogy, a hollow core copper coil with current flowing through it still acts as an electromagnet. What real evidence is there for an internal "dynamo" (which creates currents revolving in a magnetic field), rather than a "solenoid" which creates a magnetic field around a conductor by electric currents flowing through the conductor? If the magnetic field was deeply rooted, why is it so irregular in topology near the poles, and why does it shift so much year by year that there are correlations with the climatic variations?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Well as you may know, the North Magnetic Pole is shifting at a pace of about 100-150 kms a year towards the west-north-west, and was last reliably located in 2007 at about 84 N 110 W. A century and a half ago, it was on the Canadian mainland south of the central arctic islands, on the Boothia peninsula, and its drift since then has been relatively steady in a NNW then NW and finally WNW direction. So it isn't exactly hurtling away from Canada but it has recently accelerated and if it kept up this movement, it would reach a point north of the New Siberian Islands before 2050 AD. This might (from my theoretical perspective) lead to quite a warming over North America and quite a cooling in eastern Asia.

There is also evidence that the pole shifts on a daily basis due to second-order variations produced by the Sun as well as other planets, so its annual position is a mean of all those daily positions which can be as much as 100 kms from the average position.

Why does it shift? Really, nobody knows, I've been working on this question for a long time (among many other things) because without a theory of why its position shifts, I have no particular reason to assign it a position in the distant future or past for modelling purposes.

Note that the magnetic axis does not intersect the centre of the earth because the South Magnetic Pole is not exactly opposite the NMP. It is closer to the equator, the longitude is about 180 degrees different but the latitude is currently about 17 degrees lower. Presumably if this off-centered orientation got more askew than it is now, there could be a reversal event. The magnetic field has reportedly been weakening steadily since the 19th century and perhaps longer than that.

Now you should realize the arctic vortex does not just hang on to the NMP but I believe it is displaced from the north pole towards it, in fact now it takes up a mean position a little further south, so climatologically I guess the equilibrium position must be about 75N 90W but it can be dragged around to some extent and perhaps when the NMP gets over to the European part of the subarctic there could be a tendency for a secondary vortex to form near North Cape. Possibly this is what happened in the first part of the Little Ice Age, but the evidence is mixed and not very reliable as to where the NMP was before 1600.

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

A map for illustrating ideas in the astro-climatology model, for later use.

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....................................................Xx-xXX-v------O-XX------->....

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Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Post under construction to show rotation of S-field.

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elements 3, 5 further east off grid

all elements in cyclonic rotation centre near 54 N 1 W.

timing line for system at 3.7 (approx Stornoway to London)

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Sorry these last two posts were probably a bit on the mysterious side.

For devotees of my future version of meteorology (2700 AD still the money bet here) the previous charts depict the current state of play in the S4 field which is currently nicely separated out from J-fields on either side of timing line 3. Timing 3.7 indicates that the S-field is located a little ahead of timing line 3 which has a timing value or number of 3.5 and runs through Ireland and southwest England into France.

This rotational system will continue to generate energy through the weekend but already the J-2 field is encroaching from the west and this will progress rapidly due to prograde motion of the whole field system now that the Mercury retrogression has moved west through timing sector 3 to around 2 (inferior conjunction on the 6th should locate the retrograde Me fields near timing line 1).

These maps will be updated late Friday, hopefully with the rotational loops added, to show where the energy is located then as the strong J-field and lunar-geomagnetic energy peaks on the 4th begin to force strong low pressure on timing line 3.

If you look at the map above, you'll notice that components 3 and 5 are not shown; these have rotated further east than the grid and are in the vicinity of Denmark at present, returning west against the flow to reset over the UK tomorrow (late tomorrow in the case of 5 which has a period of 4.5 days).

Other loops are either resetting now or about to become extinct as their energy moves off east of the grid (4 and 6). Loop 7 is slow-moving and was probably located too far south on the map, the actual energy centre was near the Faeroes at map time and is still northwest of Shetlands now. The energy that moved south through Ireland today was J-III energy from the advancing J-field and will shear off to the southwest as the remnant low of Laura approaches.

The astro-climatology analysis of Laura is Venus disturbance in Ma-1 field. The Ma-1 field is slowly moving across the Atlantic and should be slowly losing latitude through Nov-Dec so its eventual winter position will be near the southern half of France. Given this set-up the remnant energy of Laura may well try to shear away from the weekend system and keep moving east south-east so this may have the effect of weakening the system somewhat. The stronger energy input by Saturday will be the lunar-geomagnetic strong signal on 4th (11z) of the Antares conjunction which is a long-period occultation. This has for several years been a strong signal for northern UK lows, apparently the equilibrium position for lunar events is from about 55N at 20W to 60 N at 0W. This event also has strong J-field energy peak at 23z when J-I overtakes J-II. Events are generally rebounding from a retrograde episode caused by Mercury retrogression last week towards timing line 2 at present and 1 by October 6th.

This resets timing number locally from a minimum of 3.4 around the 26th of September back towards 3.6 next week. The net effect of all these factors should be a strong zonal period fading to a new blocking episode from Venus retrogression in November. Whether that implants much of a signal or not, the oncoming J-2 field will be over western Europe in November and fading towards Russia in December. The net effect of all field positions now to January should be alternating zonal and blocking with a greater tendency to blocking in January.

Will update S-4 field structure from actual data late Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The cyclonic S-field rotation I was describing above has now drifted largely off the grid of the map, element 5 has looped back around through England over past 12 hours and is being overwhelmed by oncoming stronger J-field system, and element 7 continues to plod SW towards Ireland and was similarly overwhelmed (in terms of an easily spotted cloud signature) last night. The lunar-geomagnetic peak corresponds to the low moving east near the Shetlands. The position of this feature at 11z gives me the current timing number of 3.7 for events (meaning 20% east of timing line 3 equilibrium position towards timing line 4).

Upstream the remnants of Laura would continue to have no "timing" rules because tropical systems are interactions between field sectors in the grid, and so they change positions with a logic determined by the motion of a disturbance in the solar wind emanating from the inner solar system. The track of Laura so far corresponds to my earlier assessment, a Venus disturbance of a Mars-field sector, and this explains why it didn't gain much latitude after rounding the point corresponding to the northward extension of the Mars field in the system being used (south of Greenland). This disturbance in the solar system would be moving past Mars now and heading more or less back towards its orbit apparently having run out of sufficient escape velocity to go any further into the solar system. There are some cases with this class of tropical storm where the remnant energy loops all the way around (Ivan did this over the southeast US and was even reborn for a brief time over the Gulf of Mexico). The Canadian GEM model did a pretty good job with Laura, I feel -- they caught this rotational evolution although they overplayed it and showed it diving towards Iberia rather than northern France as will apparently be the outcome.

Meanwhile, J-I and J-II energy peaks have moved across Laura's circulation and are giving it the shape it now has, an elongated wave which should peak in energy at 23z. The tracks of J-II and J-I would be across central and southern parts of Ireland and the UK ... if you look at a satellite image from meteociel showing southern France, you may be able to watch these in phase with retrograde J-III energy looping around against the flow across southern France. J-IV energy would be somewhere in western Russia, and the remnants of that S-field cyclonic loop would now be over Germany and other parts of central Europe with the western parts of loops 3 and 4 reaching eastern England at an extreme point but these will be hard to spot against the larger and better organized J-field cloud mass.

My validation on predictivity here as opposed to post-analysis would be comments made in the Laura thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Redrawn base map ... we'll get this viewable yet.

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Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

More extensive discussions on current astro-climatology will be found regularly at my website:

Visit My Website

There you can find the updated daily astronomical agenda for what's left of November and all of December. January and February will be added fairly soon. These are the main lunar events crossing the timing lines.

As to the current set-up of the field systems, here's a brief overview:

Jupiter is in EOD July and will be behind the Sun as seen from earth on Jan. 14th 2009. At its slow rate of movement that places it in about EOD July 10th at present. The J-1 field curves ahead of Jupiter, through the Sun's environment and then becomes the J-3 field sector. Earth will transit that in late March and early April. The J-2 field is about linear between Jupiter and the Sun, while the J-4 field remains linear on our side of the Sun and lies directly ahead of the earth now. With entrance into the J-4 field, in analogue cases, such as 1889, 1949, and to some extent 1925 and 1842, eastern North America went from very cold to very mild conditions that lasted well into January and early February. The J-4 field warming is now showing up near timing line 9 in western North America. Other field sectors have shown the usual prograde rotation, fading out betwen timing lines then flaring up as they cross. The warmer spell in part of Sept and Oct in western Europe was the passage of the J-2 field. The J-1 field is now approaching but various other factors in the model suggest it will be undergoing extensive demolition from retrograde and northerly field sectors. This is basically why our LRF suggests a battleground scenario for most of the winter, as warmth from the J-1 and also further west Ma-4 fields interact with colder air masses. Meanwhile, the warm J-3 sector is identified in the west-central Pacific near timing line 7 at present.

Having mentioned the Mars field sector Ma-4, note that Mars is about to head behind the Sun (Dec 6th) and this sets up Ma-4 and then Ma-3 field sectors on the earth side of the solar system. These would equate to q.s. subtropical high pressure anomalies of 5-10 dam currently being observed around 30-40W and 90-100W. The space between Ma-4 and Ma-3 sectors is usually a closed low and trough, which has been slowly crossing timing line one associated with the recent cold spell. This sort of Mars-field interruption feature can easily be swamped by larger field sectors if they impinge on its space in the model. This will shortly happen over the western Atlantic in mid to late winter as retrograde and slower-moving J-1 sectors compete with the Mars closed low for dominance. The net effect in the western Atlantic should be a semi-permanent ridge with links north to Greenland. The weather regime under a Mars-field warming without other sources of energy is likely to be slightly above normal and dry, in other words, a weak ridge usually oriented with the flow in the geomagnetic field, WSW-ENE east of timing line one and WNW-ESE west of there to mid-Pacific.

The S-fields are cyclonic in orientation and therefore warmings are more mobile with them. At present, with the earth approaching opposition with Saturn in late February, the S-2 field is over western North America and the S-3 field is over western Europe. Since the S-3 field is otherwise in a trough position, its motions can easily be observed and followed. At the moment, S-VII is rounding the base of S-field troughs, explaining the complex low in the southwest states, and disturbances in the Mediterranean. The core of S-field rotation will drop south across the UK this weekend, amplified by a moderate energy peak as S-III, S-IV and S-V all reach similar alignments (pre-transit, therefore due south as the transit point is SSE relative to the energy centre) around 29:06z. This should be visible in a series of disturbances in the arctic frontal boundary around 3-5 W.

With Venus slowly approaching its inferior conjunction (inside pass of the earth) in March the slow-moving retrograde V-field is the high near 30W, as usual this is bounced around in the flow by the constant passage of diverted short waves, but the net motion will be retrograde. At this point, Venus is also near its lowest celestial latitude and will be heading for its highest latitude around March. This will impart a distinct northwest orientation to future retrograde motion of the block, exposing it to the strongest variability zone of the westerlies and jet stream rounding the base of the geomagnetic trough over North America. With the very large and mild J-4 prograde ridge pushing against it, this should lead to massive height anomalies at some point when the two systems overlap, probably around late January. This would be predicted to occur around the eastern third of Canada towards New England. As with Mercury, there are two rather than four field systems, the V-IC which we have just described, and the V-SC which is currently over northeast Siberia. This will become a factor in the summer forecast for Europe.

Meanwhile, the faster moving Mercury retrograde blocks are in both cases opposite to their Venus counterparts and ahead of them in the retrograde process. As we have just passed Mercury's superior conjunction, the Me-SC block has moved northwest across Quebec and is parked over the central arctic at present, forcing a small part of the subarctic jet further north into Melville Island and the NMP region. This feature will advance gradually w.s.w. to support the V-SC block over Siberia. The Me-IC retrograde block is the extension west of the Siberian high, but should acquire components further south as it comes into focus after elongation, and with Mercury at a rather low latitude through December, the block should be more over Europe than Scandinavia. The further development of the retrograde block should be northwest to support a greater frequency of polar easterly flow in western Europe in January, towards the usual "over the top" Me-IC retrograde block for Greenland and the arctic islands towards inferior conjunction in later January.

One further note, the anticyclonic energy systems of the J-fields will be experiencing a strong J-I/J-II energy peak later this winter as these rotating loops occur closer and closer to transit, the point at which they have maximum energy. Those events occur every 3.52 days, and will be happening from now to late February mainly on Thursdays and Mondays (starting from late Wednesdays and mid-Sundays at present). In the later part of the winter these are likely to be over the UK in the form of strong short waves at latitudes between 50 and 56 N so expect a very active storm season with that secondary energy peak.

The highlights of the lunar energy cycle have been discussed quite extensively in other threads. The main energy peak at present is the perigee at northern max which places perigee close to the December full moon (12th) and a couple of days before the January full moon. Those are likely to be two of the milder, stormier times of the winter near any timing line with a J-field close by (3, 5, 8, 1) as of Dec 12th. The JO events are timed for a couple of days after N Max and therefore with the January full moon. Meanwhile, the new moon - S Max plus later JC event Dec 27-28 should be another large energy peak.

In astronomy news, watch the southwest sky on Nov 30 for a close conjunction of Venus and Jupiter, with Venus the brighter and lower of the pair. By the evening of Dec 1st, the Moon joins the two planets in a brilliant spectacular ... in fact for UK viewers, Venus will be occulted by the Moon around sunset and will emerge from behind the sunlit crescent side of the Moon about 4:30 to 5:00 pm. Jupiter will not be occulted and will be visible above the other two. The best view, if you're lucky enough to have clear skies, will be around 5 to 6 pm local time. North American viewers will not see the Venus occultation although it will be happening in daylight, perhaps with binoculars if you can block out the Sun and get a view of the Moon you'll find Venus as well, at around noon to 2 pm EST. Venus can be spotted in daylight with binoculars especially if there is not much glare from the Sun.

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