METO UK Further Outlook

[shuggee]

Today's update:

Valid for Wed 15 March 2006 to Fri 24 March 2006

High pressure centred to the north of the UK will maintain predominantly dry conditions in most areas through this period. Becoming rather cloudy at times in the south and east with a few wintry showers over exposed coasts, perhaps some wet snow over hills, with the best of any sunshine reserved for sheltered western parts. Breezy at times in the south but lighter winds further north allowing some mist, and frost to form overnight. Generally rather cold, locally cold in the cloudier south and east but feeling quite pleasant out of the wind in sheltered western areas.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Frosty.]

Today's update:

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

Yet another sub-standard forecast from the met office. They have produced consistently poor short to medium range forecasts all winter and it looks like this represents a continuation of their hapless predictions. It is obvious that they have a blind spot to actual events, they failed miserably to predict the heavy snows that badly affected the far north and indeed their interpritation of this was 'a few wintry showers', we actually had a foot of level snow. They predicted a bland drier and slightly below average CET this winter and for that we offer our congratulations but as far as short to medium range forecasting goes they have failed miserably.

Karl

[Methuselah]

Yet another sub-standard forecast from the met office.

Karl

How can that be substandard Karl? It hasn't not happened yet...

[The PIT]

Yet another sub-standard forecast from the met office. They have produced consistently poor short to medium range forecasts all winter and it looks like this represents a continuation of their hapless predictions. It is obvious that they have a blind spot to actual events, they failed miserably to predict the heavy snows that badly affected the far north and indeed their interpritation of this was 'a few wintry showers', we actually had a foot of level snow. They predicted a bland drier and slightly below average CET this winter and for that we offer our congratulations but as far as short to medium range forecasting goes they have failed miserably.

Karl

Dunno which events you're talking about. The last one they kept mentioning the snow depth in your part of the world and heavy showers. I presume you're referring to earlier on in Winter.

[shuggee]

Today's ditty:

Valid for Sat 18 Mar 2006 to Mon 27 Mar 2006

Western regions should start with normal temperatures, but one of the main themes is that this will be a generally rather cold spell with overnight frost. Indeed much of the north and east will turn distinctly cold with brisk northerly winds later. At first, the far southwest may have rain with snow on hills. Otherwise, the first few days will be largely dry, apart from a few light flurries of sleet or snow from the Midlands northwards. Then, sunny intervals with wintry showers developing more widely, perhaps with significant snow on hills in the north and east.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Terminal Moraine]

A distinct change from the previous forecast.

T.M

[londonsnow]

A distinct change from the previous forecast.

T.M

isnt it always though. i have to say i think the meto's lrf this winter has been pretty damn good, but these mrf's and the attempt at vague detail have proved to me that looking further than a few days ahead is a mugs game

[ks01]

Latest from met office

Valid for Wed 22 Mar 2006 to Fri 31 Mar 2006

Scotland will start rather cloudy with sleet or snow spreading from the north. After a dry, cold start elsewhere, cloud and rain will soon spread from the southwest, preceded by a spell of snow over high ground. This leads to a mostly unsettled spell for all parts during the middle of the period. Scotland should see further spells of rain, sleet or snow, but with some bright or sunny spells interspersed, whilst England, Wales and Northern Ireland see showers or longer spells of rain. Although the north will still be rather cold, temperatures over southern parts will have recovered to near normal for a time. The end of the period is expected to become generally dry again for most parts, but with temperatures in the rather cold to cold catogory everywhere.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[londonsnow]

pretty odd forecast, i really wouldnt expect it to be cold again towards the end of that period. would also be nice if they could spell words like category correctly too

[shuggee]

It was the 'B' Team on word processing duties LS http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[ks01]

todays offering

Valid for Sat 25 Mar to Mon 3 Apr 2006

Rather cold weather is expected to persist for the duration of the period with plenty of night frost, severe in places, especially in the north. Northern areas will have a mixture of sunny intervals and wintry showers, most of the showers in the north and east and the best of the sun in the west, where it will feel quite warm at times in the sun and out of the wind. Further south skies are expected to be cloudier with a risk of rain or sleet, with snow, mainly on higher ground and a strong wind at times, making it feel quite raw. Temperatures, rather cold in all areas, locally cold in the north.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[snowmadchrisuk]

todays offering

Valid for Sat 25 Mar to Mon 3 Apr 2006

Rather cold weather is expected to persist for the duration of the period with plenty of night frost, severe in places, especially in the north. Northern areas will have a mixture of sunny intervals and wintry showers, most of the showers in the north and east and the best of the sun in the west, where it will feel quite warm at times in the sun and out of the wind. Further south skies are expected to be cloudier with a risk of rain or sleet, with snow, mainly on higher ground and a strong wind at times, making it feel quite raw. Temperatures, rather cold in all areas, locally cold in the north.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

no mention of the persistant ppn expected at the end of this week then . Typical covering there backsides again.

Edited March 20, 2006 by snowmadchrisuk

[Frosty.]

I think by April we will all be ready for warmer weather but just remember that cold winds and snow showers can occur just as easily on northern hills and the north in general. It is bitterly cold up here with a few snow flurries and biting North wind, temps only 0c despite sunny interludes.

Karl

PS, JOY, Edit drizzly showers to light showers

[johnholmes]

no mention of the persistant ppn expected at the end of this week then . Typical covering there backsides again.

come on be a bit more positive about it.

If they do not really feel they can rely on a product beyond 3-4 days what is the point of telling people it will rain/snow all weekend, as you seem to think they should, if they are not really convinced about it.

Try looking at my post in Comp for RAF Lyneham and the conflicting signals coming from GFS.

Better still show us your forecasting skill 6 days in advance and say what it will do on Sunday for the south west

John

[Thundery wintry showers]

Long range forecasts are a tradeoff between high detail/low accuracy vs. low detail/high accuracy. The MetO is justified in erring on the latter side of the scale in this case IMO, as the event at the end of next week is extremely difficult to forecast accurately and won't be clear until a couple of days beforehand at the most.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

pretty basic forecast as per usual by the met office with little sign of a breakdown from them

[ks01]

Todays offering

Valid for Sat 1 April 2006 to Mon 10 April 2006

The new month will start on an unsettled, rather windy note with showers or longer outbreaks of rain, some on the heavy side, especially in western regions. However, brighter interludes are likely with the south rather warm at times. Otherwise, temperatures will be mostly not far from normal. Around the middle of this spell, winds will turn northerly with temperatures near or a little below normal, along with some overnight frost. All areas will have sunny periods and showers, especially northern parts with snow over the mountains. Then, drier weather should edge in from the west.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[shuggee]

Here's this Friday's forecast:

Valid for Wed 5th Apr 2006 to Fri 14th Apr 2006

The weather will be cold and showery at first, with snow on northern hills, before becoming drier. There is a high likelihood of overnight frosts. Rain is expected to cross from the west during Friday and Saturday, while temperatures return to nearer average. It should then become drier and brighter again on Sunday. Thereafter, temperatures are likely to be near average, but the south may well see rather less sunshine and the southeast is expected to be distinctly wet.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Stuart]

Valid for Sat 08 April 2006 to Mon 17 Apr 2006

Unsettled at first, more settled in the south later. All parts will see showers, with some longer spells of rain at times, especially in the north during the first part of the period. Showers wintry on some hills in the south and more generally in the north, with the risk of some significant snow across Scottish Mountains. Best of any sunshine in the south. During the second half of the period, southern parts become generally drier with more in the way of sunshine. Northern areas stay more unsettled, with some rain at times, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures during the first half of the period will be near normal in the sunnier south. Rather cold further north, and locally cold in the far north at first. Later in the period, temperatures will rise to most near or above normal, with the highest values likely in the south.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/

[Stuart]

Valid for Wed 12 Apr 2006 to Fri 21 Apr 2006

A changeable westerly airstream is expected to be maintained across all parts at first. Bands of rain will traverse the UK from northwest to southeast interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The rain heaviest and most prolonged in the west and more especially northwest, generally lighter and more intermittent further southeast where some prolonged dry, bright spells of weather can also be expected. Later in the period, pressure may gradually build from the southwest allowing generally drier, brighter conditions to develop, and the best of these in the south. Temperatures mainly near or a little above normal, locally rather warm in the southeast over the Easter Weekend and perhaps becoming more generally rather warm away from the coast later.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/

[SNOW-MAN2006]

next update soon...

snow on horizon or will the gfs's prediction of milder weather prove true...

[shuggee]

Valid for Sat 15th Apr 2006 to Mon 24th Apr 2006

A west to northwesterly airflow is expected to bring changeable weather for several days. There will be sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy, and some more prolonged rain may affect parts of the south and east on Easter Saturday and Eastern Sunday. After Easter, there are indications that showers will become more confined to the north and west with southern and eastern areas becoming drier and warmer. Later, this drier and warmer weather is expected to extend further northwards with perhaps some very warm weather possible for southeast England especially. However, scattered thundery showers may develop, along with an increasing risk of coastal fog.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Stuart]

Valid for Wed 19 Apr to Fri 28 Apr 2006

Low pressure to the north of the UK will maintain rather unsettled weather through much of the period of this forecast with all parts seeing showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by drier brighter periods. The rain or showers tending to be heaviest and most prolonged in the north with areas further southeast perhaps seeing nothing more than a few showers and enjoying the best of the sunshine. However, all parts may become predominantly dry and bright for a time over the weekend as pressure builds temporarily from the southwest. Windy at times, more especially in the north with a risk of gales, perhaps severe gales at first. Temperatures near normal, becoming rather warm or warm through the period, especially in the south and east.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/

[shuggee]

Valid for Sat 22 April 2006 to Mon 1 May 2006

During this spell, low pressure should move to the north of the United Kingdom, while high pressure reaches southern areas at times. This suggests a rather unsettled pattern, especially in northern areas, while there are signs that the southeast may have only small amounts of rain. At first, rain will move southwards, but turning patchy and light towards southeast England. Then, some sunshine is expected, along with further rain or showers, especially in the north. Mostly near normal temperatures are likely, but the south may be rather warm in the early part of the spell.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[shuggee]

Today's jobby:

Valid for Wed 26 Apr to Fri 5 May 2006

Southern areas are expected to start dry and quite warm at first. However, outbreaks of rain across the north will spread southeastwards, clearing all areas during Thursday. Thereafter, a northwesterly airstream is expected to become established. All areas can expect a mix of sunshine and showers by day, some of the showers heavy with hail and thunder, especially in the east and north, with showery activity dying down overnight. Temperatures are likely to be near average, but feeling chilly at times in the fresh to strong winds. Later a trend to more settled conditions is expected with many southern and western areas becoming mostly dry with showers becoming confined to the north and east. Temperatures are likely to remain near average by day in sunshine, but with north or northwesterly winds easing, there is an increasing risk of overnight frost.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html