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METO UK Further Outlook


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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 29 Apr 2006 to Mon 08 May 2006

Most parts are expected to start the period dry with sunny spells, but probably cloudy near North Sea coasts, though scattered showers developing over Northern Ireland and Scotland during Sunday. From the start of May it is expected to become unsettled from the north and west, with bands of rain or showers spreading southeastwards across most parts. The amounts of rain are likely to be mostly small across southeastern England with the wettest conditions in the northwest of Britain. Sunny spells are likely between the rain or shower bands, the best of these across southern and some eastern regions. Winds mostly light at first but becoming rather windy over northern areas early in May. Temperatures often near normal, though rather warm in the sunnier parts of the south and a little below normal during the wetter spells, more especially in the north.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Wed 03 May 2006 to Fri 12 May 2006.

Unsettled at first with periods of rain or showers, but some sunny spells as well. The most persistent rain expected across central parts on Wednesday, moving slowly eastwards during Thursday with the best of the sunshine across southwestern regions. During the weekend becoming drier in most areas, especially in the west with sunny spells, but showers continuing in the northwest and perhaps the far southeast of England. For the remainder of the period, southern Britain becoming unsettled once again with further spells of rain or showers while northern Britain remains more settled with longer drier periods. Temperatures mostly rather warm, locally warm.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html


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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 6 May 2006 to Mon 15 May 2006

All areas are expected to start the period unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and thundery in places. Drier, brighter weather will gradually develop over Scotland, Northern Ireland and perhaps northern England in the early part of next week, whilst in the south further bands of potentially thundery rain are expected. Eastern coasts of both England and Scotland will stay fairly overcast throughout. The drier, brighter conditions in the north will extend to many parts for a while, before an increasing risk of further thundery rain towards the weekend. Temperatures ranging from cold or rather cold along eastern coasts, where it will be rather breezy at times, to locally warm in sunnier western areas. The warmer weather may become rather more widespread later in the period.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon


http://www.metoffice.co.uk/ Edited by Stuart Harvey
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Wed 10 May 2006 to Fri 19 May 2006

Low pressure to the west of the UK maintains rather changeable conditions across England and Wales at first with showers or longer spells of rain whilst higher pressure to the north of the UK allows fine, mainly dry conditions to be maintained over Scotland and Northern Ireland. These more settled conditions extending to all areas for a time, although with a scattering of showers developing inland each afternoon. Later in the weekend into next week, a more prolonged spell of heavy and thundery rain may threaten southern parts, with all areas perhaps becoming more generally changeable thereafter with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures mostly near normal, locally rather warm inland.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Mon 13 May 2006 to Mon 22 May 2006

Scotland and Northern Ireland may start unsettled, especially northern parts of Scotland, with spells of heavy rain or showers. Most other areas, perhaps much of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland too, should see sunny spells to start with, but with some daytime showers developing. Low cloud and mist could plague many coasts. During the period southern areas are likely to see a few thundery showers developing, spreading northeastwards for a time, although all areas are likely to see some sunny spells too. Coastal mist is likely to continue over southern areas. The temperatures will start rather warm to warm inland, but cooler in the far north, and with little change expected later in the period. Mostly light to moderate breezes will prevail, although perhaps a little windier at times in the northwest.


Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

Link http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Wed 17th May 2006 to Fri 26th May 2006

Low pressure to the west or northwest of the British Isles is expected to maintain unsettled weather through the period, with bands of rain spreading east or northeast across all parts, interspersed by brighter conditions with showers. The rain heavy at times, more especially in the west but with a threat of thunder for southern parts early in the period. The showers between rainfall events may also be more concentrated in areas further west with the best of any drier, brighter weather reserved for the east. Windy at times. Warm in the south or southeast at first, otherwise temperatures mainly near normal, locally rather warm in the best of any brightness between rainfall events and perhaps becoming rather cool at times in the north.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Sat 20 May 2006 to Mon 29 May 2006

Areas of low pressure near to the British Isles are expected to maintain unsettled weather throughout much of the period, with bands of rain spreading east or northeast across all parts, interspersed by brighter, colder conditions with showers. Some snow can be expected over Scottish mountains, and the rain heavy at times. The best of the sunshine is likely to be in the east. Temperatures will be generally near or a little below the monthly average, but occasionally rather cool or cool in the north. The southeast may see an interlude with warmer temperatures around the middle of the period. It will be windy at times, with the risk of gales mainly in the west.


From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Wednesday 24 May 2006 to Friday 2 June 2006

Low pressure close to the north of the UK is forecast to maintain an unsettled westerly airstream for a time. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected in all parts, some heavy with a risk of hail and thunder but interspersed by somewhat drier and brighter interludes. Later in the period pressure may build from the southwest across southern and

some western areas with more prolonged dry spells perhaps developing here whilst further rain or showers affect northern and some eastern parts. Windy for a time, more especially in the south. Rather cool, locally cool with some overnight ground frost under any clear skies.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

hi

How about someone taking on the task of marking these forecasts?

If anyone wants ideas on how to mark then pm me and I'll give some guidance on how we used to do this at Weather Centres many years ago. Essentially marking the temp range, the weather, wind and any other data the Met O draw attention to.

Please note it needs to be done as objectively as possible if its to mean anything and for the whole UK not just ones' local area.

Just as a quick comment they seem fairly accurate to me over the past few weeks.

regards

John

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 27 May to Mon 5 June 2006

After an unsettled weekend, with further rain or showers for most parts, pressure is expected to start recovering from the southwest early in the following week. The rain or showers will become gradually confined to the north or east, many southern and western areas becoming mainly dry with the best of the sunshine at that stage. After the recent cool spell we should see temperatures also on the up. Initially the south and west well see this improvement, becoming rather warm in these areas. Northern and eastern Britain will continue rather cool still. From midweek, the drier, more settled weather in the south and west should extend to remaining areas, with a good deal of dry weather, above average temperatures everywhere, and above average sunshine.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon


http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Wed 31st May 2006 to Fri 9 Jun 2006

Much of the period is expected to be dry, rather cool for a time, but with temperatures returning to near the seasonal average in all but eastern districts of England. Northern Ireland, Wales and western England will be dry throughout, whereas showers are likely in eastern counties. The east should become drier later, but staying rather cloudy. Most of Scotland will also be rather cloudy, more especially over the northwest, where spells of drizzle may be expected. Winds will generally be light, though stronger in the east for a time. There is a decreasing risk of overnight frost in places where cloud clears.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Sat 3 June 2006 to Mon 12 June 2006

High pressure will decline away southwestwards, allowing less settled weather to spread southeast during the first half of the week. Later in the week, and lasting into the following weekend, high pressure returns to the south, lower pressure persisting to the north. So, a mainly dry weekend is in store, with sunny spells for most regions, although cloudy with a little rain at times over western Scotland. Through the first half of the week there will be more cloud spilling down from the northwest, a chilly northwesterly wind, and scattered showers. Although most of the showers will be in the north and northeast, there will be a few extending to other eastern and central parts for a time. Dry, settled weather, with sunny spells, will then return to southern UK from the middle of the week onwards, northern areas cloudier with rain in places. Temperatures, near normal in the cooler northwesterly spell, but otherwise becoming locally warm in inland areas.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Wed 7 June 2006 to Fri 16 June 2006

Initially, high pressure is expected to cover much of the UK with generally fine, dry and settled conditions and good spells of sunshine, the exception being northern Scotland which is likely to see considerably more cloud and some rain. However, conditions look like becoming more unsettled towards the weekend as outbreaks of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery, spread from the south to reach most places by Sunday. Generally temperatures are expected to be in the warm or very warm category across inland parts but coasts will be cooler while mist and low cloud could make some southern coasts much cooler. Into the following week, the suggestion is that conditions are likely to remain rather unsettled with some showers or rain at times, but also with drier and brighter intervals. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, locally warm in the sunnier spots.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London

I have volunteered to try and assess the accuracy of the MO twice-weekly further outlooks.

After discussion with John Holmes I propose to adopt the following marking system for 4 representative stations (London Weather Centre, Aberdeen Dyce, Belfast Aldergrove and Manchester Woodford): temp 4 marks ( 2 max, 2 min; using the MO seasonal definitions of warmth and cold etc and judged against the 1971-2000 averages); rainfall 3 marks (type, intensity and length of time/timing); sunshine/cloudiness 3 marks judged against the relevant 30 year average for each month and wind 2 marks (direction and strength).

1. Ian/Stuart: it would be helpful if you can please continue to post the updated forecasts as before.

2. Ian: a few weeks ago someone posted details of the MO seasonal definitions of "warm" "cold" etc. The MO have refused to disclose this treasured information max/min temperatures to reflect the fact that especially in spring and autumn it is a little misleading to use the monthly mean alone. Thus days 1-10 incl would be adjusted "up" from August to December and "down" from February to June [little point in adjusting January and July]; days 11-20 incl would be unadjusted and days 21-28/30/31 would be adjusted in reverse to days 1-10.

3. Perhaps inconsistently (but to make life easier) I do not propose to adjust sunshine averages: thus I will use the monthly mean divided by the number of days as a guide.

4. As regards wind I propose to use measurements at a set time each day.

5. All of this will only be possible if i can extract the relevant data from the MO website!

Constructive comments/criticism welcome (please remember that I have no scientific training let alone meterological training whatsoever!)

Regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

will pm you tomorrow about mean temps over months etc

John

and tks for offering to do this.

John

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 10 June 2006 to Mon 19 June 2006

Pressure falling from the west early in the period. Mainly dry in the east over the weekend with sunny spells whilst western areas become cloudier with thundery showers developing. The showers transferring eastwards to all other areas by the middle of next week interspersed by some bright or sunny intervals although it is likely to be misty on coasts. Thereafter, pressure is likely to be lower to the northwest of the UK with relatively higher pressure further south and southeast. All parts seeing variable, at times large amounts of cloud with showers, at times merging to give more prolonged spells of rain, these more especially in the northwest with the best of the drier brighter weather reserved for areas further south and east. Temperatures warm or very warm inland for a time, locally hot and rather humid in central and eastern areas. Becoming nearer normal from the west during the latter part of the forecast, although staying on the warm side of normal in parts of the south and southeast.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

From http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Valid for Wed 14 Jun 2006 to Fri 23 Jun 2006

Pressure is forecast to be relatively low to the northwest of the British Isles through the period. This would maintain changeable weather with occasional rain or showers in northwestern areas, accompanied at times by fresh to strong west or southwesterly winds but interspersed by some drier and brighter intervals, the best of these in the east. Elsewhere, relatively high pressure is expected for much of the period maintaining predominantly dry conditions although with a threat of thundery showers in the far south and southeast, more especially early in the period. Temperatures ranging from near normal in the more changeable northwest to warm, locally very warm over central and southeastern areas with a low probability of hot and humid conditions returning for a time.
From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 17 June 2006 to Mon 26 June 2006

A fine start for most, with sunny spells, although with an increasing risk of thundery showers developing, especially in the south at first, but spreading to other areas later. However, more cloudy in the far northwest with some rain at times. Temperatures above normal and hot for inland southern areas at first, but cooler near some coasts.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

From http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Wed 21 Jun 2006 to Fri 30 Jun 2006

A deep area of low pressure centred close to Iceland on Wednesday is expected to move away eastwards then a ridge of high pressure dominating most of southern Britain, extending its influence further north later next week. A band of rain clearing from southern parts on Wednesday, (most of the rain in the west, mainly dry in the southeast). Then southern parts generally dry with sunny spells through the whole of the period, just a very low risk of occasional thundery showers in the southeast. Northern Britain is expected to be generally rather cloudy at first with rain or showers at times, accompanied by strong winds. There is a risk of gales in exposed parts on Wednesday. Later next week northern areas becoming mostly dry with sunny spells, the best of these in the east. Late in the period there is an indication of further showers affecting northwestern parts. Temperatures mostly near normal in the north. In the south, generally warm at first but becoming very warm at times, especially inland.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 24 Jun 2005 to Mon 3 Jul 2005

Rather changeable weather is expected at first with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the north and east. Pressure will gradually build from the west during the period, bringing dry weather to most areas from Monday onwards, although the far north of Scotland will continue to have some showers for a few days longer. Towards the end of the period cloud and outbreaks of thundery rain will edge up from the south to threaten southern England south Wales, the south Midlands and East Anglia. Temperatures near average in many areas at first, but gradually turning warmer during the period to become very warm or hot generally, although possibly returning to average later in the south if the thundery rain materialises.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk...look/index.html
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Wed 28th June 2006 to Fri 7th July 2006

Northern districts of the British Isles are expected to remain generally unsettled, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. The heaviest rain is likely in the northwest, while eastern Scotland should be drier and brighter. Further south, a good deal of dry weather is expected until the weekend, when there is a risk of thundery outbreaks. Thereafter, more settled conditions should become established. Temperatures in the north will be near average, whereas the south will become steadily warmer from above average to hot in the southeast later.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 1 July 2006 to Mon 10 July 2006

In Northern Ireland and western Scotland, it is expected to stay rather unsettled with rain at times, although with some drier and brighter interludes. Other regions will start dry, but during this coming weekend, heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are set to develop from the south. Into next week, brighter weather should return from the west, but still with a chance of a few showers or storms. Temperatures will range from near normal in Northern Ireland and western Scotland to mostly warm elsewhere, after a hot and humid start towards the south.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe...look/index.html

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Wed 5th July 2006 to Fri 14th July 2006

A hot, thundery spell is expected over England and Wales at first, with some locally heavy rainfall. Scotland should be dry and warm at first, though North Sea coasts may be plagued by fog. The thundery activity should die out from the west towards the weekend, accompanied by fresher weather and lower temperatures. Northern districts are expected to become increasingly unsettled and after a mostly dry weekend, there is also the likelihood of more cloud and rain over much of England and Wales, more especially the west. The southeast may be drier and warmer than elsewhere.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe...look/index.html
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Valid for Sat 8 July 2006 to Mon 17 July 2006

East Anglia and southeast England may have showers at first, these possibly heavy with thunder, before soon giving way to mainly dry weather with sunny periods for the rest of this spell. Further west and north, showers or longer outbreaks of rain are likely, particularly towards Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where it will be rather windy, while the best of drier and brighter interludes will develop across remaining parts of England and Wales. Temperatures will range from mostly a little below normal in western Scotland to near normal elsewhere, but turning warmer towards southeast England.

Updated every Monday and Friday afternoon

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

So it seems that the mid-July suggestion of unusually heavy rain in the south of England has now been forgotten.

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