Latest TWO Headline.

[summer blizzard]

Europe braced for Russian winter

The latest TWO 45 day forecast is now available here and points toward often very wintry weather during January and the first half of February. We expect temperatures to be significantly below the average especially in southern and eastern areas, and throughout the period there will be a higher than average risk of substantial snowfall.

Usually Europe looks towards the Atlantic for its weather during the winter and this generally brings rather unsettled conditions with some colder interludes but also long spells of much milder weather. Occasionally we have winters where we need to look towards the east and Russia for our weather and it looks as though this year may well be one of those.

Full article here

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Oh well thats blighted our chances of a cold winter, I'll get me shorts! lol!

[i luv snow]

haha, good point timmy. All i can say is we live in hope :lol:

[Schnee]

TWO have a new 45 day outlook out now which covers the period from February 1st till mid-March.

It points to Temperatures to be above average for the first 45 dats with a potential for a short but cold spell during February before milder weather returns.

They also expect an increasing mobile weather pattern to develop which will be in contrast to the current blocked pattern as they are saying on their main page.

The full outlook can be read here: Click here for the full outlook.

[i luv snow]

well that means lots of snow and cold to come for definate then

hehe naughty davie! naughty davie!

[Weather-history]

Well its a bad start to that forecast already. 4-6C for tonight for NW England? Its not even going to get above freezing by the looks of it.

[Dave J]

I don't know how Brian compiles his forecasts, however:

If he puts up pictures of polar bears in London and 1963 winter photographs with phrases such as "Big freeze", "Icy Blast" etc. then he is going to get masses of criticism for sensationalist long range forecasting when its goes completely wrong.

The number of incorrect (and changed) forecasts that TWO have released on their front page are too many to mention.

He predicted a 40C heatwave back in late July for early August (just because GFS F.I. had hinted at it)

When I criticised him on TWO for doing this (just after the forecast was made), a barrage of TWO members supported Brian and completely believed him. Surprise, surprise it was 20C and mostly cloudy that week with the coolest August for 6 years.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Totally agree with you Dave! Noticed my recent post has been removed, but the changes in 45 day forecasts which overlap are quite extreme at times.

[Stuart]

Take A look at this

Winter returns – blizzards for someAfter the recent milder weather and the longer days many of you may think spring has arrived. If you do then the next week is likely to bring a nasty shock as wintry conditions return to the UK with the chance of snow increasing from Sunday. During the next few days a complex area of low pressure will gradually sink southwards allowing colder air to be pulled in from the north and east. This cold easterly airstream should be established by early next week, and the indications are that it will be rather unstable giving a high chance of precipitation for eastern areas. Had this pattern developed several weeks ago then the UK could have been looking at bitterly cold conditions as the near continent was much colder than it is now. As it is, the really cold air over Central Europe has now dissipated and this should stop temperatures falling too low in the UK, and the could mean some of the precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, especially over low ground in southern parts of the UK. However, over higher ground blizzards are a possibility next week.

Link http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Methuselah]

I don't know how Brian compiles his forecasts...

From their general lack of any accuracy, my guess would be that he just makes them up? :lol: Or gets them specially written by Joe B'Stardi? :lol:

[Stuart]

Cold week - snow possibleRather cold and wintry conditions are expected to develop and persist across the UK during the week ahead. High pressure to the north will allow an east or north easterly air stream to develop across the UK. If this set-up had develop in late January the chances are the UK would have had a severe spell of wintry weather, however, as we approach spring the air out to the east has warmed up. So although the air stream will still be cold, it wont be unusually cold. Daytime temperatures are likely to be several degrees above freezing even in the east, and this type of scenario gives forecasters an additional problem which is determining whether or not precipitation will fall as snow. For much of the week it looks as though temperatures will create marginal conditions for rain, sleet or snow, although in general terms we expect the greatest snowfall risk to be for higher ground in the east. There are some indications of a colder pool of air crossing the UK on Thursday and this may cause snow to fall more widely for a time.

The colder conditions are likely to persist until the weekend, and possibly the following week. We will issue updates during the week ahead.

link http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[johnholmes]

thank you Stuart

But why not read our own Front Page, Alerts or Close Up? I guarantee they are at least as accurate and with no ramping, just sound analysis of what is possible.

regards

John

[crimsone]

thank you Stuart

But why not read our own Front Page, Alerts or Close Up? I guarantee they are at least as accurate and with no ramping, just sound analysis of what is possible.

regards

John

The met office charts are still allowing for a prolonged cold spell - snow or not is another matter though.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

TWO usually updates this evening.

Keep an eye out for one of their dramatic cold ramping headlines.

Maybe something like:

"Chaos ahead as northerly approaches"

"Britain to be gripped by big freeze"

"Big freeze ahead - stock up on essentials"

[Cloudburst]

TWO usually updates this evening.

Keep an eye out for one of their dramatic cold ramping headlines.

Maybe something like:

"Chaos ahead as northerly approaches"

"Britain to be gripped by big freeze"

"Big freeze ahead - stock up on essentials"

'Atlantic freezes over'

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

They're not going over the top suprisingly:

"Week beginning 27/02

A cold start to the week is expected. In Scotland and northern areas sleet or snow showers are likely to develop widely giving significant accumulations of snow in places, especially over higher ground. Further south drier conditions are likely, although there is the prospect of some mainly showery rain, sleet or snow developing at times. Conditions look set to remain cold and rather wintry during the middle part of the week, although by the weekend there are indications that it will turn milder once again."

[Stuart]

Remaining cold and wintry, -15C possible The current cold conditions are set to continue during the weekend and into next week. High pressure is expected to stubbornly remain to the north of the UK, preventing milder air to blow in from the Atlantic. Instead, the gate has been opened to enable cold air to flow in from the east and north, with the likelihood of snow developing at times.

The general picture for the weekend is a mainly dry one, with variable amounts of cloud. However, by Sunday evening wintry showers are expected to develop in eastern coastal counties and during the early part of next week these will become more widespread. Over higher ground in Scotland and northern England blizzard conditions may develop at times, and even southern parts of the UK may see some showery sleet or snow.

With snow cover likely in Scotland by early next week, we are looking at the possibility of some exceptionally low overnight temperatures being recorded there, and at this time we think values of –15C may be reached.

A change to milder conditions looks likely to develop during the second half of next week as high pressure recedes, and weather systems begin to move in from the Atlantic.

Our 14 day forecast is available here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Spring brings –15C and blizzards Wednesday is the first day of Spring, but the week ahead looks set to bring a spell of very wintry weather with the possibility of blizzards and temperatures plunging as low as –15C in Scotland. A strong area of high pressure over Greenland will push the usual flow of milder weather from the west much further south allowing bitterly cold air to flood down from the arctic and across the UK. The northerly air stream will develop on Monday and by the end of the day it should be covering virtually the whole of the UK. During the middle part of the week cold and bright conditions are likely, but snow showers are expected to develop widely and give accumulations of perhaps 20cm to 30cm locally. The areas most at risk from heavy snow are Scotland, the north of England and coastal counties, although some snow showers could develop almost anywhere at times. Sheltered parts of southern and central England may miss the worst of the snow showers at first. However, later on in the week it looks as though milder air from the south west will try to break down the cold spell and this could bring some prolonged and heavy snowfall into the south of England. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the timing of developments after the middle part of the week and we will provide updates during the days ahead.

Our 14 day forecast is available here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Bilz]

LOL...who remembers their '-15C mid-December blizzards' forecast? There was an almighty uproar on weather forums across the net when December arrived and it was close to 10C - that's a staggering 25C out - with not a flake of snow to be seen. It's been just 6 weeks since that forecast went to pieces, and I can't believe they have the cheek to release such sensationalist headlines so soon after such a spectacular forecasting disaster.

EDIT - though having said that, I just checked the updated BBC 5 day forecast and nearly fell off me chair. It predicts -11C for rural Oxfordshire Friday night! Incredible! Doubt it will happen though...

[crimsone]

Maybe they've adjusted for windchill?

[Stuart]

UK remains in the grip of winter Although spring is now beginning, the next few days are expected to remain cold and wintry with further snow in many places. The areas most at risk from snow are the north and coastal counties. However, snow showers are making tracking quite far inland and these are being helped by inland convective activity which does increase as the sun becomes stronger through late February and March. One thing very noticeable at this time of year is how quickly temperatures can plunge in precipitation. In sunny spells southern areas are recording temperatures around +6C, but these fall towards 0C once the sun goes in and the snow begins to fall.

The wintry theme is expected to continue during the second half of the week, and there is a significant chance of heavy outbreaks of snow developing across southern and central parts of the UK. Low pressure systems will begin to push up from the south west, and as these move into the cold air over the UK the rain associated with them readily turn to snow. There is a lot of uncertainty about developments during the second half of the week as a small change in track of low pressure systems could mean the difference between blizzards and freezing conditions, or heavy rain and temperatures reaching double figures.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Spring forecast online The spring forecast is now available here. Many people fins summer and winter the most interesting seasons, however, in the UK it is often spring which brings the most changeable and diverse weather patterns. This is because often there is enough cold air floating in northern Europe to bring a wintry chill to our shores, but at the same time the Azores high pressure usually starts putting out its feelers towards the UK and this pushes sub-tropical air in our direction bringing the chance of some early warmth.

The overall picture this year is for a generally cool and rather wet spring when compared to other recent ones. However, this will mask large variations in the weather with April in particular throwing a few surprises towards us with the possibility of some snow towards the middle of the month. May looks likely to be unsettled and as increasingly warm conditions develop during the second half of the month, the risk of heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain is expected to increase.

Winter forecast review

A lot of people have contacted us to say winter does not finish until March 21st. We use the same definitions as the UK Met Office to define the seasons and so our winter forecast covers the period Dec 1 to Feb 28. Read our weekly winter forecast review here. Please let us know whether or not you thought our winter forecast was accurate by sending feedback

[Stuart]

Wintry weekend, warm next week Spring often brings big contrasts in the weather, and the next few days are expected to illustrate this. For the weekend we are looking at colder air being pulled back westwards across the UK, and as weather fronts move in from Atlantic a clash of air masses is expected over the UK on Saturday and Sunday. With a fair amount of precipitation being thrown into the mix, there is the potential for some significant snowfall in eastern and central areas during the weekend. The colder conditions look unlikely to last for long, and by the early part of next week we expect much milder weather to approach the UK from the south west. Initially this is likely to bring a continuation of the unsettled theme, but as we move into the middle part of the week, high pressure is likely to build bringing some fine and pleasant weather for a time.

[Cloudburst]

Looks like everyone north and east of teh midlands is gonna get a white saturday night and sunday morning, althoguh once agian i'll miss out, mild air pushing in very quickly on monday though so it wont be around for long.

[Stuart]

Winter marches on The possible change to warmer weather during the week ahead which we recently mentioned now looks very unlikely. The much milder Atlantic air has stalled to the west of the UK, and it now looks as though cold conditions will persist. The latest computer predictions are suggesting the UK and Western Europe may well remain in the icy grip of winter for the next week or possibly two. Further sleet or snow is likely in many parts of the UK during the days ahead, with an ongoing risk of blizzard conditions at times giving significant accumulations in places, especially over higher ground.

With the cold weather set to continue it does now look as though this March may well end-up as one of the coldest of recent times and it may even be colder than March 1947 which brought some of the most severe wintry conditions ever recorded across the UK.

The reason for the late arrival of spring this year is high pressure located to the north of the UK. This causes the wind across the UK to blow from a cold easterly or northerly direction.