Members' winter forecasts

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

This thread will be dedicated to members Autumn and Winter Forecasts.

Information regarding this thread and its associated dicussion thread can be found HERE

Please PM a Moderator with your forecast, and it will be pasted here.

Good luck, and enjoy

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From THE PIT on Friday 26th August

September will be dominated by Warm SW. Breaking the trend of northly domination. These will be fairly strong bringing drizzle at times to west coasts and more general rain to the north west. Eastern and Southern areas will be generally dry with below average rainfall again.

Thundery outbreaks will proceed the few cooler spells as cold fronts move SE bringing welcome rain to the SE. The cooler spells lasting a few days only.

Rainfall will be below normal in the east and south overall and normal in the NW.

Temps 1c above normal in the south and east to around 0.5c above normal west and NW.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Steve Murr on Thursday 25th August

Anyway- I thought I pass a few comments on the opening of September/Autumn..

Traditionally we should see the atlantic just beginning to stir along with the jet stream beginning to fuel up for the long haul through the Winter-

This is because of the rapid cooling off of Greenland & Northern Lattitudes allowing a horizontal pressure gradient from the warm to Cold air which increases with height( thus a stronger Jet)

With this though often comes late September warmth- This is due quite often to the stronger jet stream and Deeper trough formation allowing Stronger Advection-

Obviously this can be both Cold air and warm air advection- But at this Early stage with the ITCZ still at its Northern Locale you would expect it to be WAA-

This September However I feel is still precariously balanced as the Strength of Polar Cell repetatively pulses Southwards-

It is Similar to May & Early June- where the Jet stream & advection process had enough 'energy' to transport that Cooler Polar air South across the BI-

Since then although Summer in the BI has been moderatly average I have been monitoring the movement & oscillations in respect to the polar Cell and whilst as expected there hasent been much in the way of northerly incursions I suspect this could change during September- esecially as we move on through the month-

Many of the people on here monitor the Temperature anomalies across Europe looking out for Heat & plumes coming our way from Spain-

From this Chart- nothing significant??- Well Maybe Not-?

( Look at iceland)

Euro Temp anomaly 10 day

However Whats NOT always monitored and quite key to our Winter moving forward is the Temperature anomalies directly to the North of us-

Continental America Anomalies- ( RE GREENLAND)

Greenland- Running at 5C to 8C below Normal- reminding us of the fact that the core pressure over this region has remained high over the last few Months-

This is further important development wise for us especially if this Southward progression of Colder anomalies continue to push South when the Seasons move on through Autumn and into Winter-

This would also explain the 'bucking' of the ice pack trend in the associated areas around Eastern Greenland & iceland

What I would expect to see from September ( this isnt a forecast but a general 'trend predictor') is Core pressure over greenland to remain Strong and 'begin' to see Stronger troughing both up the western & down the eastern sides-

This stronger advection process is what drives Colder incursions from the North and will ultimately start to push the polar front South-

The balancing act is though how far south will it reach in September- If I was predicting a CET for Iceland Id go for a below average Month-

IF I was going for a CET for the Northern Aisles of Scotland then perhaps again another below average period- however-

For the BI to measure a below average CET then that polar front will have to Starddle of even better Push south into France and I dont 'think' that will happen this Early-

In the situation North/South splits are often the order of the day - however that dividing line is pretty difficult to assertain...

Anyway- Whilst we go through Sept- When monitoring the UK ensembles I recommend anyone with a keen interest on Winter to monitor the Reykjavic Ensembles to see consistent Temps around -5 C850 and possibly dipping below-

Also that Greenland anomaly should be monitored-

As for the SST's- they have changed and moved dramatically over the last 8 weeks and again subject to a great deal of change over the following 8 weeks-

IMHO the overall strength of the global circulation cells is more of a factor/influence over our weather than rogue SST anomalies especially at high lattitudes above 60 degrees.

So then- lots to look at over the next 5 weeks before October- Possibility of early frosts still remains.......

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Summer Blizzard on Monday 29th August

Here is my updated forecast, it will be updated every few weeks, i have now factored in sea surface temperatures however i have not factored in the PNO.

September

During the first week of September the Jet Stream will be over the British Isles due to a strong Greenland High with temperatures between 10C and 15C, during the middle of September, there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for Scotland and temperatures between 10C and 15C, the last week of September will see a Icelandic High with a easterly and temperatures between 15C and 20C due to a southerly tracking Jet Stream.

Sunshine amounts will be above average, rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 0.5C and 1C below average, there will be a notable lack of presense from the Azores High.

October

During the first week of October the Jet Stream will be over the British Isles with temperatures between 10C and 15C due to a strong Greenland High, the second week of October will see a southerly with high pressure over Europe and temperatures between 20C and 25C due to a northerly tracking Jet Stream, the third week of October will see the Jet Stream will be over the British Isles with temperatures between 10C and 15C due to a strong Greenland High, the last week of October will see high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 5C and 10C.

Sunshine amounts will be below average, rainfall amounts will be around average and the CET will be around average, there will be a noteable mix of weather during October.

November

During the first half of November, there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and 5C, during the second week of November, the Siberian High will ridge west and there will be a easterly with widespread snowfall and Channel Lows with temperatures between 0C and 5C, the second half of November will have a Azores High to the south west of the British Isles with south westerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream and temperatures between 10C and 15C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be around average, November will be a month of two halfs.

Autum Summary

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average, and the CET will be between 0C and 0.5C below average, all in all, it will be a mixed Autum.

December

During the first week of December, there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and -5C, during the middle half of December, the Siberian High will ridge west and there will be a easterly with widespread snowfall and Channel Lows with temperatures between -5C and -10C due to a southerly tracking Jet Stream, during the last week of December there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and -5C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 2.5C and 3C below average, there will be a notable presence of Ice days.

January

During the first week of January, there will be a Azores High to the south west of the British Isles with southerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 5C and 10C, during the second week of January high pressure will move into Europe with a southerly and temperatures between 10C and 15C, during the third week of January, there will be a Azores High to the south west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 5C and 10C, during the last week of January, the Jet Stream will be over the British Isles due to a strong Greenland High, with temperatures between 0C and 5C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 1.5C and 2C above average, there will be a notable presence from the Azores High.

Febuary

During the first week of Feburary, there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and -5C, during the second week of Feburary, the Siberian High will ridge west and there will be a easterly with widespread snowfall and Channel Lows with temperatures between -5C and -10C due to a southerly tracking Jet Stream, during the third week of Febuary there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and -5C, during the last week of Feburary, the Jet Stream will be over the British Isles due to a strong Greenland High, with temperatures between 0C and 5C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 2C and 2.5C below average, there will be a notable presence of Ice days.

Winter Summary

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average, and the CET will be between 1.5C and 2C below average, the overall winter CET will be around 2.5C and 3C.

Discussions on these forecasts can be made HERE

[Methuselah]

Here's Snowprincess's forecast, dated 29th August:

Forecast (attached this time), Yesterday, 22:21

Nimbostratus

Group: Members

Posts: 682

Member No.: 2,471

Joined: 4-January 05

Warn: (0%)

Indian summer type Sept - becoming cooler and more unsettled towards the end.

Wet and windy October. Stormy third to fourth week. Quieter and colder end.

November. Brief chilly anticyclonic beginning with night frosts. Becoming much milder (especially in the south) and unsettled with mobile westerly pattern by second week and stormy in the north especially Scotland by the third to fourth week and turning much colder here with snow and possible blizzards especially over High ground towards end of the month.

December. Greenland High building with retreating deep LP to east and wintry spell spreading south with appreciable snow and drifting in the north - more esp Scotland. Blustery wintry showers even further south with some accumulations possible mainly (but not exclusively) over higher ground. Widespread frost - severe in the north and over snow cover. Becoming milder during second week with more rain and strong perhaps very damaging winds mid-month. Towards xmas possibility of lows taking a more southerly track with arctic conditions developing to the north. However this is more likely towards the end of the month and into Jan.

January - Could well be the start of THE winter and a southerly tracking jet bringing the possibility of mild vs cold battles and very heavy snow in border zones depending on where the polar front meanders. Might be that brief milder incusions alternate with bitter and cold easterlies with hard frosts and frequent snow showers esp in the east and south east following snow to rain and back to snow sequences.

February - Anything is possible. lol (confidence is low going this far ahead )

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Kold Weather on Monday 29th August

On the whole I think September may be above average,although not by that much.In the first week it seems quite likely we will be under a south-westerly wind,with a Azores high located over Europe and building in,with a strong HP cell drifting eastwards across Finland.I suspect by the end of the first week winds will turn more to the west as the PFJ takes a slight dip to the south allowing for a few weak disturbances to cross the country,probably giving some frontal rain to most areas.

This will probably be coupled with a strong Greenland high forming,upto 1030mbs i suspect although the exact strength wil ldepend on the track of tropical cyclones which will no doubt head across the Atlantic.

During the first few days I suspect the PFJ may weaken a tad with a trough located close to Scandinavia,not quite sure on postion as it could be way to the north of the U.k or over.Towards the second half of the week this should drift eastwards or north-eastwards.The jet should return just to the south of Iceland and allow pressure to stay on the high side.The other thing I think we may see is behind the trough feature we may see a slight ridge feature building in behind the system from the Azores region,how far north it reaches depends on the PFJ postion however I think that even with a slight ridge to the south we will see fronts pushing over the area and would probably be coupled with a westerly which may veer to more of a north-westerly towards the end which may induce the risk of frost for those in the far far north.

During the third week I think we could see the first truely cyclonic week of the Autumn as the jet pushes south just to the north of Scotland heading westwards on a fairly strong PFJ heading west-east,with a strong high pressure cell once again located near Scandnavia and also a strong polar cell,may also see the first -20C pocket towards the end of the week as well,something to watch out maybe!

I expect pressure to be quite slack over the U.k during the third week,maybe marginally lower then average thanks t othe closeness of the depressions,i also think it'll be quite a wet week and possibly windy howveer at this stage its all just ideas.

Fourth week is really hard to forecast as Spetember is more of a transtion month but I think this week may be dominated by a high pressure just to our east dragging in some quite warm south-easterlies although this may lift more to the north over north-western Scandinavia if there is another pluse from the PFJ which may cause it to sink back southwards and cause the end of week 4 to be very cool and wet as the trough dives south-eastwards over the U.K.

Of course at that sort of distance,its hard to put any sort of cinfidence into the forecast and at best its a educated guess.Overall I think that September will be:

CET- 0.5+

Rainfall- 125%

Sunshine- (depends greatly on where you are in country,on average though) 90%

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Norrie on Saturday 03rd September

September- Mainly cloudy as Hp takes control towards the end of the 1st week. Becoming sunnier and warmer with temps in the range of 23-26c. Chance of Thundersorms at beggining of 3rd week then turning cooler and more zonal with LP systems moving in from the West and giving many rainy days woth the odd sunny day. Temps Average.

October- Starting cool with some heavy rain to the west moving East. I expect the 1st autumn storm of the year during the 1st week. Drying up toward the middle of the month and staying this way with the chance of decent sunny days as Hp sets itself in control. Chance of beakdown frok the west at end of month.

November- a very mixed beggining with heavy showers and sunny intervals. Could be a soggy Bonfire Night. Turning cooler with NW winds giving a chance of wintry precipiation to the hills of Scotland. Sunny in the South though with a few showers. By the 3rd week the chance of winds turning Northerly giving some Northern and Eastern areas their first Snowfall and many months though this should be cut of quickly as HP moves in from the West and gives most areas Sunshine and night frosts. HP in control going into December.

Early winter thoughts- Mostly dry with occasional NW and Northerly cold snaps giving some snowfall to most areas. The Easterly wont appear until Feb IMO.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Blizzard of the Northwest on Wednesday 07th September

September: The first few days of September look set to be mild or warmer in place with temperatures reaching the mid 20s, however i don't think this will last long as fresher weather moves across the UK. Although the weather may begin to turn fresher i think most areas will still see mild temperatures, anywhere from the mid teens, to the mid 20s. The first weekend looks set to be mild for the North and warmer in the South, as high pressure begin to build South of the UK. I think this high should last into the early part of the second week, but i will not rule out the chance of a shower in the North, or the odd thunderstorm further South. Then as we approach the end of the second week i think unsettled and cooler conditions will move down from the North. This front is likely to bring rain to most areas, but properly missing the far South to South West. I won't be long before high pressure than moves back up from the South West giving milder temperatures to all, but always warmer towards the South.

As for the rest of September i think it will continue this theme, High pressure building from the South, and fronts moving in from the North to North-West giving cooler and wetter period at times.

Also watch out for night time frost.

October: I think October will start mild especially for the South, but i don't think this will last long as fronts begin to move in from the Atlantic, giving heavy rain to some areas. Although i think October will have its settled part particularly for Southern areas. I also think nighttime frost should start to occur, i also would not rules out some of the white stuff over the far Northern hills.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From SNOW-MAN2006 on Saturday 10th September

september: rain from time to time especially in the north but then more drier onditions will settle in rising temps to 24 celcius in the south by next week! then im afraid some wet and windier weathr again with temps possibly down to a low of 10 (maximun) in scotland with frosts possible.

milder towrds the end again.

october: the first week will start mild but by the 2nd week very heavy rain and strong winds will make there way across the country. then drier and cool to finish.

november: cool start with milder condtions pushing in from west before a possible n-westerly outbreak brings some snow/sleet to areas for the end of the month.

early winter- cold before warming up

[Methuselah]

Cirrus

Group: Members

Posts: 33

Joined: 7-September 05

From: surrey

Member No.: 4,228

Warn: (0%)

hi all i would like to hear your views on this comeing winter i know u lot will say it is a bit to early but just for a prediction please. anyway i have learned how to read charts and have studdied the weather patterns i.e ukmo and gfs for a few years now i know it may not seem it but i have i went on work expecrince working along weather forcasters so here i go with my winter forcast ok.

october: This period as we enter autum the first 2 weeks will be very unsettled with heavy rain gales especcaly for north-westerners such and ireland but this still does not mean we will not see any off it i.e south and east but the west will bear the brunt off this misrable but exiteing weather the odd flash off lightning will be seen as it pushes from ireland eastwards so the first 2 weeks looking wet and windy. temps will range from scotland- 16cmax-9cmin. in the south- 18max-10cmin. As we enter the third and fourth week off october the third week will be a much calmer peorid specificley for the south-east as high pressure located in the south-east but this will only last a few days before it begins to take a turn and while high pressure is in the south-east it will remain reasonbley fine in the uk and scotland but with heavy showers mainley in the west off scotland. and to the fourth week and it takes a turn i am quite sure we will see alot off rain as we go into the fourth week so it will make up for that calm week indeed with high winds and really heavy rain this time i think the south will see alot off rain but not as much wind the wind will be in the south-west and pushing northwards temps in the third and fourth week will be a little colder to the beginning off october this time rangeing from scotland- 7cmin-15max and in the south- 16max-9cmin so that sums up october i will post my monthley forcast day by day on this post so see you all tommrow have a very good evening. oh by the way all please post your winter predictions on this comeing winter just as a prediction.

regards:london-lookout

[snow-watcher]

Hi all this is my first post as i only have just joined this great board last night i am focusing on this boards and people who is a crazy weather fan i,e me lol Winter!!! The big question is it going to snow that is a answer knowone can answer at the first process leading into winter BUT as i said last night introduceing myself i work with people who know their weather and so do i so i know you have to earn respect on this board and i have gathered thoughts of myself and others on this comeing winter i will give you a quick insider off what i think will happen thankyou.

Winter 2005/2006: This is a difficult one to predict but one thing i am quite sure on this one is faviouring a below average winter i am not saying this winter is going to be a full blown easterley which i wish could happen belive me. So im guessing what your thinking:Well whats going to happen? I am going to stick with the met-office on this one they doent usally stick out their necks and forcast a could winter without a good reason and background do they? So what i can see happening is for this month the rest off october being above avrage in terms off tempratures i think it will fair 1.6 above avrage. At the begining of november i think we will see the real begining off winter i,e we should see temps falling slowley i think in the second week scotland will see their first snow not just on the mountains but at lower levels too so as i say we will see temps falling and i think we will see the first below average month in terms off winter wich is a good sign off things cooling down. So november a below avrage month with the first snow in Scotland. December this is where the fun begins With haveing a below avrage month previous month i think we will begin with a northerley in the first week off december and a few snow showers begining to pop up up north. And a few down south which is a great sign and encroageing so yes a northerley to begin with the next two weeks will be relativeley sunny but cold so towards winter i think we will see a white christmas As we will see a north-easterley and bearing on to a easterley but this will not long last this will last for 2-3days but bring snow to all areas i think this will be a taste off things to come and fairley widespread. I will not go into january and febuary with too much detail as i cant pinpoint what i think will happen i will release my jan and feb thoughts mid november anyway i think it is looking a good winter and a snowey one comeing certainley for a long time good evening all good health and thanks for reading.

regards:snow-watcher

[Big Bear]

Despite the early cold forecasts and warnings from the likes of the Met Office, other professionals and media hype like this:

www.bbc.co.uk/scienc...

I am predicting a winter slightly above average for 2005/06

December will start mainly dry and warm. The middle of the month will see bands of rain sweeping in from the south west as zonality returns to govern the next 3 months. Christmas will be very green indeed with some very mild temperatures, perhaps record breaking minima & maxima for parts of the south.

January will continue the mild theme, but wetter and windier than December.

February will break the hearts of any holding out hopes on cold weather and snow. Frosts will be few and far between throughout the entire winter period. The south westerly winds will rage through February nights with some gale force gusts for the west.

March will surprisingly be a colder and quieter month with perhaps light frosts and a few sleety showers in Scotland and northern England.

[The Abominable Snowman]

Not sure where to put this so i thought i would start a new topic

October 2nd half: It seems likely that cold air will move into scotland and northern england this weekend as the greenland HP tries to build southwards. I would expect several air frosts here and showers particually down the east coast, snow above 300 metres in scotland (possably lower). The south the cold air is unlikely to arrive due to the lack of pressure gradient, howether sunday night may well be cold.

As the new week begins rising pressure over the near continent and a low centred out in the atlantic will sweep a south westerly flow of air across the UK. Expect warm and sunny, but a bit windy weather in the south and east, but the the north west will likely see rain and near gale force winds.

As the week progresses the atlantic should fire up and begin to fir active depressions towards the UK, howether conditions will be mild due to the persistance of the high to our south east, preventing north westerly winds. I expect this setup to persist for the remaider of the month.

November should start cooler as pressure to our west rises giving a northwesterly flow of air. This HP may well move to be centred to our northwest giving cool but not particually cold northerlies due to being too close to the HP centre.

With pressure still fairly high to our south east i can only see this high retreating eastwards and linking up with this high to once again bathe us in mild southerly winds. This may well persist until mid month.

By mid month pressure should start to fall to our south east and east, and also rise significantly across Greenland which will cause the first southerly tracking lows of the autumn. Expect some decent northerly blasts on the back of LP's.

Towards the end of November cold air will be transfering east from greenland, and pressure will be falling there. Full power LP's will be smashing into the UK at this time bringing significant rain and wind. November CET 1.3 Above Average.

Beginning of December, cold block building across siberia in an HP. The UK will be mild as will much of europe with a general south westerly flow.

Mid december, Siberaian high moving into Scandi. Central Europe freezes in easterly winds while the cold/mild battle is situated to the east of the UK. As we head towards the 20th low pressure will sat to the south of the UK opening the door for the cold air to pile eastwards. South of England will be coldest with LP near by and possably a warm front trying to invade which may give a white christmas here. The north may be less cold due to the rather thin HP which will begin to turn things mild across northern Norway and Sweden.

As the month closes the cold source will die as it is cut off and temps will begin to rise. December CET- About Average

Jan and Feb may well see a lot more from the east, with a negative NAO...

[SMU]

Good evening All-

Well this is my first real serious look at a Long range outlook- The forecast Period covered is December/January/Febuary ( Abbrieviated DJF) and covers the 'expected' Northern hemispehere atmospheric flow patterns generated from my source data- with obvious particular attention to North-Western Europe-

This Forecast WILL NOT attempt to Pin down certain dates over the Winter as from my own experience this is still beyond our reach-

The forecast is driven by Oceanic & Atmospheric data which drive the Teleconnection patterns-

For the record it may be pertinent to remind people that ALL Patterns discussed here are born out of Oceanic/SST trends - ( This means they start in the ocean & Work their way up into the Atmosphere) this is with the exception of the AO which starts in the atmosphere and works its way downwards-

The basic rationale for ocean observations for climate research and forecasting is straightforward. Basically, the upper 10 feet of the ocean has the same heat capacity as the entire atmosphere and therefore has a tremendous influence on both short- and long-term air temperature changes. Likewise, the ocean holds a significant amount of carbon dioxide, which can influence future atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Observing these properties of the ocean and incorporating relevant data into models—like what is done in weather forecasting—is essential to the prediction of our future climate (whether it is the onset of the next El Niño or the longer term decadal changes linked to the AO, PDO, and NAO). Therefore, the accuracy of future climate forecasts will depend on improvements to our ocean observations (especially temperature, salinity, and currents) within the upper layers of the ocean.

Before we get into the finer detail of the decadal oscillations we must first draw a line in the sand....

The starting point for any preliminary forecast would be one of assesment - Data that is supported by evidence of continual global trends will be a good overall precursor to the overall temperature anomalies against the Mean for the forecast period-

For this there are some statistics & graphs that demonstrate this adequatly with this particular one driving the point home-

0

The current overall Temperature anomaly against the mean average is upwards of 1C - that may seem insignificant- but bring this back to the marginality of our Wintry events and this is the route number 1 cause of the problem- Should we wish to correlate our own CET in terms of a similar plotted graph I would suggest that it is very simlar in trend with perhaps a bigger upward deviation of anomaly since the late 80's-

Also If I take September 05 as a snapshot of the current global picture then things are pretty much as expected in terms of warming- if a little more pronounced-

The average global temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean surfaces for September (based on preliminary data) was 1.13 degrees F (0.63 degrees C) above the 1880-2004 long-term mean. This was the warmest September since 1880, the beginning of reliable instrumental records. The second warmest September was in 2003 with an anomaly of 1.02 degrees F (0.57 degrees C) above the mean. Land surface temperatures were highest on record for September with temperatures more than 5 degrees F (2.8 degrees C) above normal across large parts of Asia and North America. Ocean temperatures were third highest on record. El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions remained neutral in the tropical Pacific Ocean at month's end.

I dont want to really go into the Global Warming discussion- this is because the data shows the trends and for the purpose of the forecast AGW or NO AGW its irrelavent-

However as a caveat to the last statement I would like to briefly explain why the rate of warmth experienced by the UK has been exaggerated since the late 80's- especially through the mild winters of the Nineties-

Its our dependancy on high lattitude Blocking to interupt the westerly Zonal flow of the jet to induce cold spells- especially ones that last longer than 2 days-

Globally speaking the KEY driver of this is the Polar Vortex and its strength-

The polar vortex is analyzed at 500 millibars. The polar vortex occurs above the core of the coldest polar air. Since frigid air is dense, heights are lower aloft because cold air has a lower thickness than warmer air. At the surface of the polar air mass will be high pressure, but low heights will occur aloft at 500 mb since the air is compacted due to high density air near the surface.

The polar vortex can often be located over Canada since the coldest surface air is often found over high latitude icy/land locations. The polar vortex aloft propagates toward where the polar air mass moves.

The strength of the Polar Vortex has a direct effect on the gradients driving the Jet stream-

The Simple key is the Stronger the Vortex the steeper the gradients and stronger the Jet stream-

Moving a stage further- the Strength of the PV ( Polar Vortex ) is driven by the Temperature in the Stratosphere- the COLDER that is the Stronger the Vortex and vice versa-

The graph illustrated below is the Stratospheris Temps anomaly

from 1978 to current- highlighted in BOLD is the link to AGW... The Stratospheric temps-

The figure above shows the monthly temperature deviations from a seasonally adjusted average for the lower stratosphere - Earth's atmosphere from 14 to 22 km (9 to 14 miles). Red is an increase in the temperature from the average, and blue is a decrease in temperature. The large increase in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon, and the increase in 1991 was caused by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. November 2000 was the coldest month on record for stratospheric temperatures. The long-term downward trend in lower stratospheric temperatures is believed to be the result of ozone depletion (primarily), and to a lesser extent the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations due to the burning of fossil fuels.

If we now put the Strong Polar vortex into context and transpose this into jet stream terms- the jet has undergone some serious investment from the Stratosphere- and the trend continues-

In terms of visibility and a quantifiable measure we use the teleconnection 'AO' and for those unsure of the technical description here it is-

The AO can be described as "a seesaw pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude. The positive phase brings the opposite conditions, steering ocean storms farther north and bringing wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia and drier conditions to areas such as California, Spain and the Middle East."

So Summary for the AO- remember (Globally speaking) A stronger Vortex means a higher +VE phase and less in the way of high lattitude blocking- >>>>>> Less Meridional Flows >>>>>> Less Southward Cold Air penetration.

With the global anomaly explained as well as the Stratospheric anomalies layed out you would say that the odds against getting ANY MONTH below average let alone a WINTER below average are Stacked WELL against us- Well Maybe NOT so- The stratospheric temps have remained fairly constant over the last few years however there have been some significantly warmer pockets appearing over the poles- this will help slow the PV down......

So... Apart from the AO this winter and indeed ones to follow there are other influences / oscillations at a Global & Local level that may help to bring some of the equilibrium back to the Uk's temperature anomaly -

At the very worst to level out against the average global +VE anomaly- and perhaps better still below the average +VE anomaly-

For this Studying the ENSO, NAO, PDO, and to a point QBO Patterns is essential.....

We move on.....

The Overall Controlling Ocean Current in terms of effecting global patterns is the ENSO ( El Nino Southern oscillation)

The scientific definition was recently developed to help scientists to identify ENSO events. When the three-month running mean of the SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are greater than or equal to 0.5°C, there is a good chance of an El Niño event taking place. When the anomalies are smaller than or equal to -0.5°C, there is a good chance of a La Niña event taking place. Take note, however, that strong ENSO events (which are more likely to affect our seasonal climate) have a larger SST anomaly and normally last for a period much longer than three months.

The current ENSO pattern is NEUTRAL and from the NOAA forecast suite without delving into to much detail the summary is....

'ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.'

When ENSO is Neutral we move onto the Secondary big Oceanic driven Patterns that effect us-

The PDO ( The Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and NAO ( North Atlantic Oscillation) are both net end results of Oceanic Current movements and circulations-

Before I go into detail regarding these Its a pertinent point to remind people that when these teleconnections phase strongly together either + or - VE then these are the most extreme winters - this is of course for both Mild or Cold conditions-

The NAO ......

So many posts on the weather forums refer to this oscillation, However for those still unaware exactly what is it a brief overview and a link to a more detailed explanation-

A substantial portion of the climate variability over the Atlantic basin is associated with the NAO, which is a dominant pattern of atmospheric circulation variability. The NAO refers to a meridional oscillation in atmospheric mass with centers of action near Iceland and over the subtropical Atlantic from the Azores across the Iberian Peninsula. When the NAO is in its positive phase, low pressure anomalies over the Icelandic region and throughout the Arctic combine with high-pressure anomalies across the subtropical Atlantic to produce stronger-than-average westerlies across middle latitudes. This phase of the oscillation is, consequently, associated with cold conditions over the northwest Atlantic and warm weather over Europe, as well as wet conditions from Iceland through Scandinavia and dry conditions over southern Europe. This pattern of climate anomalies is most pronounced during winter when atmospheric teleconnection patterns such as the NAO are strongest.

NAO detailed description....

The basis of my forecast for NAO this Winter is based around 2 Caveats-

1) Tropical Convection

2) SST anomalies

So then... Tropical Convection- ( And also remember SUMMER Convection can leave a WINTER SST Blueprint - some members here keen to dismiss ideas of Summers, Autumns and Winters are not linked)

Let me start by saying that this does not establish black and white rules by any means, and this stuff should be used with caution like anything else, but all other things being equal, there does appear to be at least a hint of correlation here. What has been examined is how tropical convection (NOT necessarily tropical storms and hurricanes, but convection in general) affects the circulations in the Atlantic, which in turn can affect the SSTs, which in turn can have an effect on the atmosphere. They used OLR anomalies to measure convection, then used computer modeling to simulate how enhanced areas of convection alter the atmospheric circulations. What they found was that enhanced convection (decreased OLR-Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the Caribbean and over central Africa lead to a weakening of the trade winds via an anomalous low in the central Atlantic (the enhanced convection in the Caribbean even led to Rossby-like waves that propogated northeastward toward Spain), especially when combined with less convection over South America along and just south of the Equator. This indicated a northward shift in the ITCZ and led to an alteration of the SST pattern in the autumn giving the tripole of warm water in the tropics, cooler water in the central Atlantic, and warmer water in the north Atlantic. Their studies showed that this pattern (which is the earmark of the -NAO) generally persisted into the early winter. When the results of the modeling were tested by comparing the modeled pattern to actual patterns during -NAO early winters, there was a good degree of correlation shown, but it was hypothesized that other factors (ENSO, etc) could override this.

Composites of the OLR anomalies for the 15 years which had the strongest -NAO and a composite of the 15 years which had the strongest +NAO. Keep in mind decreased OLR means increased convection-!!!

Jun/Aug

Composite Neg NAO were- 54,57,59,62,63,64,65,67,68,70,76,77,78,84,95

Composite Pos NAO were- 73,74,80, 82,83,87,88,90,91,92,93,94,98,99,04-

The composite maps for the -NAO years match the hypothesis very well,with enhanced convection in the Caribbean and over central Africa, as well as decreased convection over central South America. In addition, you can see that this isn't related to the hurricane season per se, as there are some high number hurricane seasons that actually had less convection overall, so one cannot simply go by hurricane number. Again, keep in mind the theory here. Summertime convection alters the Atlantic circulation, which alters the SST pattern in the Autumn, and the SSTs, all other things equal can leave an imprint on the atmosphere into the early winter.

If you then transpose the same composite years across to the 1000mb plots for climo anomalies you can see the low anomalies in the -NAO years from 20-30ºN in the Atlantic, indicating the reduction in the trade winds, just as hypothesized in the Hurrell paper. The +NAO years have no such low anomaly in that region. There are some other stark differences as well, but we want to remain focused on the Atlantic to decide if the aforementioned ideas have any merit.

It does indeed appear that the ideas do have some value, barring any other stronger outside influences, as we have established not only a correlation, but have identified a logical reason why this could work, and even shown how computer modeling came up with a similar look when initialized with the enhanced convection in the appropriate locations.

So what does this have to do with now? Well, before I get into that, let's look back to last year. The hurricane season of 2004 obviously was quite active, which led some to call for a -NAO overall for the winter. Yes, we did get the massive block late winter and Late Feb into March, but overall, it was a +NAO winter

The summer 2004 OLR anomalies will show the decreased convection over central South America, but notice how despite the active hurricane season, convection in the vicinity of the Caribbean and over central Africa was actually lower, which is the opposite of what is observed in the -NAO years. In fact, the 1000mb anomalies also more closely match the +NAO years.

Looking closely at 2005-

We have highly enhanced convection in the Caribbean, enhanced convection over central Africa, and decreased convection along and just south of the equator in South America, though not quite as concentrated as some of the -NAO years. So far, that alone would indicate a better chance for an early winter -NAO than a +NAO, but again looking at the Atlantic circulation measured by the 1000mb anomalies- Again, this too looks more like the -NAO years than the +NAO years. It will be interesting to see how this affects the SSTs as we head through the autumn. If it affects them in the ways mentioned above, then we should indeed get an early winter -NAO this year. But one must always consider the fact that not all -NAOs are alike, cand some do not even some with a snowy pattern. That said though, I think all snow lovers would prefer to take their chances with a -NAO than a positive one......

Some caveats... Most of the -NAO years also occurred when the negative phase of the PDO predominated, and that phase of the PDO also correlates to some similar looks, so again, I would say use this with a degree of caution, but I think that since the pattern in the Atlantic obviously has more to do with the NAO phase than does the Pacific, the correlation isn't entirely unusable, even though I think there are connections between the two...........

2) After the initial comparison for Tropical Convection is digested the output from this in terms of Autumn SST Patterns is for a pretty Sharp SST correlation to Support -NAO years....

Seeing as many many people quote SST anomalies on a daily basis

I have produced from the CDC site a correltaion map which lends itself perfectly for a -NAO...

The above correlation map from CDC of the SST anomaly pattern for -NAOs.(NEG) Focusing on the Atlantic. Notice the correlations? A negative NAO correaltes best with an Atlantic setup where, there are above normal SSTs in the tropics to 20N. Below normal water above that up to around 50N. Another belt of above normal water, above this north of 50N, to south and west of Grenland. And another band of below normal SSTs above this north of Iceland and east of Greenland. The setup is very similar to what is in the Atlantic right now, EXCEPT there is warm water currently off the NE US.However this is slower being replaced by Colder waters sinking south- iF these turns to negative anomalies, then it is almost a perfect -NAO setup in the Atlantic....

As I mentioned earlier phasing with the PDO WHEN it is Negative can create Very extreme conditions-

First of all a breif overview of the PDO-again another Oceanic Oscillation-

The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time. Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate (his dissertation topic with advisor Robert Francis). Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO.

Remember the Cool phase is the -VE measure

PDO variations ( The one on the right is the -VE phase)

Again referring to the CPC site I have produced the 500 Mb Geopotential Height anomalies for both +VE & -VE PDO Phases-

The key here is the Height rises encouraged over Greenland and Lower anomalies over the Iberian penninsula inline with the Negative PDO phase- Whilst the PDO is NOT the driving factor for Greenland in context with Phasing with -VE NAO years its crucial-

Ive posted the link to the TABLET form both PDO & NAO below-

( Again the Key Months are Nov,Dec,Jan

NAO Tabular averages

PDO tabular averages

If you look at the PDO Cycle the biggest -VE period was the late 40's early 50's through the 60's & 70's- since then Positive on the whole-Especially the last 4 years- ALL Positive.... until last year- 3 months of neg and a trend this Autumn towards the Neg- this will hopefully spell the PDO beginning to oscillate to a cool phase......

We will need to keep an eye on that PDO......

With these 2 Big teleconnections summarised I just want to add my feelings around the Scale of any -VE NAO /PDO's- and how this will effect us-

Firstly I would Say both Teleconnections are in a mode of Change towards Negative trends - However values below -1 index of NAO are still considerred NEUTRAL....

The PDO is pretty Static at the moment which means no real movement away from the -VE phase-

This means that Should things remain fairly static in terms of SST anomalies or continue to gather a little pace in our favour things look set for a higher than recent chances of at least ONE sustained Cold spell-

This is Where People like the MET-Office have upgraded to Amber Alert Because the likleyhod is increased-

Sadly though Im NOT expecting this year to be the Bumper Year- Im going for 07/08 on that one- WIth Hopefully A phase of Sunspots/NAO & PDO all strongly -VE-

Also the key withe NAO will not be so much height rises over Greenland, but significant height decreases over the iberian peninsula allowing for Southerly advection into the UK-

What I Am expecting is ONE month to be the Winner in terms of Breaking the chain of Above averages- This Im expecting to be December or Jan- Based on the early phasing of NAO & PDO- and the displacement of the PV .......

Should the Phasing have been Stronger -VE then maybe I would have gone for more- BUT this is a even larger teapot and one cant get away from those land based Temperature anomalies-

What I expect this Year in terms of pattern development is ( Broad Scale)

November-

Cyclonic - The energy in the Jet Still to Strong for High lattitude blocking ( due to the Tropical Storm season being Active)

with this probably being the wettest Month of the Autumn for the Uk>

Above average Rainfall for the UK

Above average CET for the UK~ 7.5C final

December-

A Split- between Cyclonic & Anti-Cyclonic, the key here will be the beginnings of the transfer south of that Polar front, I dont expect anything FULL on for Dec, but a couple of Potent northerlies to wet the appetite....

Approximate Level Rainfall for the UK

Above average CET for the UK ~ 5C

January-

Anti-cyclonic

Im looking at Jan to buck the trend of recent Winters- Gone is the storm season & so fingers crossed will be the Omni present Icelandic low-

Im looking for Greenland/East zone of +VE Heights and a Good repetative feedback for 7-10 days of Cold air, maybe more-

Below average Rainfall for the UK

below Average CET for the UK ~ 3C

Febuary-

Anti-Cyclonic

The early Winter SST movements will determin this one- I would at this stage go for a month of 2 halves- Northerly Blocking V Southerly Blocking- again NO strong Jetstream to mention of, however Im wary that repetative Greenland blocking also ends with Bartlett Blocks... So

Below average Rainfall for the UK

Above Average CET for the UK ~ 4C

Ok that just about wraps it up-

hope this sheds some light as well on the often Misquoted Met office review of the

-NAO as it doesnt Guarentee anything-

Many regards to you all...

Steve As Sf says all this of course this is mere conjecture.......

Edited October 19, 2005 by Steve Murr

[The PIT]

Okay lets go for November.

November will be another mild month. This will ensure that Autumn will be amongst the warmest recorded. South Westerlies will dominate and probably be stronger than they were during October so it's likely they'll be several noteable gales theres effecting the West and North West most of all. At times the East may suffer from gusty conditions.

Sunshine will be below normal in the West and North and around normal in the South and South East. Rainfall will be above normal in the North and West and close to just below normal in the East and South.

Temperatures 0.5C to 1C above normal in the North and West and between 1C to 2C in the South and East.

Frosts will be a rare event this month with any air frosts preserved for Scotland and the Valleys.

Snowfall will be confined to the Peaks of Scotland and probably be a complete abscene from England and Wales as any cooler air will hardly penetrate South.

[Portland Paul]

Here goes!

After an exceptionally warm October in England and Wales, and very wet in the north and west, what does November have to offer us all?

In general, I'm going for a month that is looking like this:

Rainfall: Wetter than average in the north, and south-west. Drier than average in the south-east.

Sunshine: Sunnier than average in the west, duller than average in the north-east.

Temperatures: Overall rather above average, near average in the far north and north-west.

The month should begin fairly dry for most, especially in the south and east with some night and morning fog around. Wet at times in the north-west. Around the 6th- 9th, wetter for all, with stronger winds - and some persistant rain in the W and SW. Still on the mild side, with little or no frost. From the 10th -14th, a colder west to northwesterly influence with bands of showers, most prevalent in areas exposed to this wind direction. Some night frosts in the inland north. More wet spells by mid-month in the SW in particular, but more settled and chilly in the north with night frosts. Around the 18th- 22nd, a northeasterly pattern developing, with more widespread night frosts, along with patchy fog in the sunnier west. More eastern parts seeing the first wintry showers, with snow accumulating - especially on the Yorks/ Lincs hills and the Pennines. From 23rd- 26th, turning less cold - but still dull and perhaps wintry in the north-east. Becoming wet and windy in the south-west, then west, but milder. The closing days of the monh see mild southerlies establishing or most parts,with most of the wind and rain in the west or north-west.

[Roger J Smith]

Based on my research into long-range atmospheric trends, and sparing you the technical basis since much of it is either already present in other forecasts where similar, or unpublished research material where applicable, this is my seasonal forecast for the UK November included, but December to February for the winter "seasonal" period.

NOVEMBER is likely to continue very mild with frequent wind and rain events as a succession of strong lows will follow a strong jet stream oriented WSW to ENE and at times SSW to NNE across the UK. While there are bound to be one or two minor breakdowns of this pattern, the strong lows will continue to form and will strike on the average of two every week. Two of the stormier periods (after Oct 31-Nov 1 which may involve the remnants of Wilma) will occur around the 16th to 20th and near the end of the month. Brief wintry episodes would be most likely around the 10th and 25th. Temperature anomaly values will average 2 degrees above normal, and rainfall will be generally 125 to 175% of normal.

DECEMBER may see a more variable stormy pattern with the possibility of a deeper trough developing near 10-20W. There could be one or two extremely strong storm events in this month, around the 15th and 30th of the month in particular. If there is any minor easterly blocking, it would be likely to occur around the first two weeks, but I think this may be more of a radiational cooling fog-out kind of cold spell than a true easterly, with the Russian high staying east of Moscow for the most part. Temperatures for the month may be barely above average because of some spells of cooler stagnant high pressure, but a few days around those stormy periods will probably be near record warmth. Temps to average 0.5 to 1.3 C above normal and rainfall and/or snowfall near normal values for the most part, trending to 200% in NI and Scotland which could see some very heavy rains at times.

JANUARY will see a highly variable regime setting up because of the first stages of what I expect will be major high-latitude blocking over Sweden and Finland. This will not be much in evidence in early January, which will be stormy and not far from normal temperatures most of the time. Some particularly strong storms around the 13th-15th of the month will bring some heavy snows to some areas, with heavy rains in the southwest. After this, the pattern will begin to shift as a massive high begins to develop over Scandinavia. I would expect a period of much colder weather with several snowfalls in late January. The overall monthly temperature anomaly will be a little below normal as the regime shifts mid-month. Precip will be variable and snowfall above normal although mostly later in the month.

FEBRUARY could turn out to be one of the colder months you have seen in recent years, as I expect this northern European block to remain in place most of the month. Snowfalls will be frequent for the UK because of this easterly flow interacting with a still active Atlantic storm track that by this point will be running mainly across extreme southern England, France and Belgium into southern Germany. We'll have to see, if this develops, how much influence global warming can have on such a pattern. Without that factor I would be expecting some fairly large negative monthly temperature anomalies in the range of 3-4 degrees below normal, and fairly light precip values that are above normal for snow and below for rainfall except in the southwest.

That's my forecast as of now, if I see changes in patterns that require an update, I will issue those on this thread.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Summer Blizzard on Wednesday 26th October (Updated Forecast)

Here is my updated forecast, it will be updated every few weeks, i have now factored in sea surface temperatures however i have not factored in the PNO.

November

During the first half of November, there will be high pressure to the north west of the British Isles with northerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream, with possible snow for England and temperatures between 0C and 5C, during the second week of November, the Siberian High will ridge west and there will be a easterly with widespread snowfall and Channel Lows with temperatures between 0C and 5C, the second half of November will have a Azores High to the south west of the British Isles with south westerly outbreaks due to a meridonal Jet Stream and temperatures between 10C and 15C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be around average, November will be a month of two halfs.

Autum Summary

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average, and the CET will be between 0C and 0.5C below average, all in all, it will be a mixed Autum.

December

During the first half of December, there will be a easterly with Channel Lows and widespread snowfall and temperatures between 0C and -5C, due to a westward ridging Siberian High and a southward ridging Greenland High causing a southerly tracking Jet Stream before a breackdown in the third week of December due to a Barlett High and a low pressure in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean with a northerly tracking Jet Stream over the British Isles and temperatures between 5C and 10C before the Greenland High collapses in the fourth week of December and low pressure becomes situated in the GIN Sea with a northerly tracking Jet Stream and temperatures between 5C and 10C.

Sunshine amounts will be above average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 0C and 0.5C below average, December will be a month of two halfs, the first half extremely cold and snowy and the second half extremely mild however the first half will slightly offset the second half.

January

During the first week of January, the Jet Stream will be to the north of the British Isles with low pressure in the GIN Sea and a Barlett High with temperatures between 5C and 10C before the Greenland High re-establishes itself and low pressure becomes anchored in the middle of the Atlantic with a Barlett High and a northerly tracking Jet Stream over the British Isles for the rest of January with temperatures between 5C and 10C.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be between 3C and 3.5C above average, there will be a notable presence from the Barlett High.

Feburary

During the first week of Feburary, the Jet Stream will be to the north of the British Isles with low pressure in the GIN Sea and a Barlett High with temperatures between 5C and 10C before the Greenland High re-establishes itself and low pressure becomes anchored in the middle of the Atlantic with a Barlett High and a northerly tracking Jet Stream over the British Isles for the second week of January with temperatures between 5C and 10C, during the third week of Feburary, there wil be a easterly with a battleground senario win which the cold will win and temperatures between 0C and -5C, due to a westward ridging Siberian High and a southward ridging Greenland High causing a southerly tracking Jet Stream before the Siberian High moves away east and the Greenland High takes over during the fourth week of Feburary with a extended spell of northerlies and widespread snowfall.

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average and the CET will be within 0.5C of average, Feburary will again be a month of two halfs, the first half mild, and the second half cold.

Winter Summary

Sunshine amounts will be around average and rainfall amounts will be below average, and the CET will be between 0 and 0.5C above average, the overall winter CET will be around 5C due to a extremely mild January.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The below is the raw data used by Summer Blizzard for his forecast update today (see above)

Week 1 - negative - negative - posotive

Week 2 - negative - negative - posotive

Week 3 - posotive - posotive - posotive

Week 4 - posotive - posotive - negative

Week 1 - posotive - posotive - negative

Week 2 - posotive - posotive - posotive

Week 3 - posotive - posotive - posotive

Week 4 - posotive - posotive - posotive

Week 1 - posotive - posotive - negative

Week 2 - posotive - posotive - posotive

Week 3 - negative - negative - negative

Week 4 - negative - posotive - posotive

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

From Predict Weather:

Will it be a really cold winter?

The official forecasters are saying yes, but we beg to differ. One might well wonder, whatever happened to their notion of global warming? With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts.

Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small.

January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight.

The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over .

Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm.

The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild.

A Link to the website.

[conor123]

Here is my forcast for december.

December - After a cold end to november

1st - 6th will be very mild with strong even gale force

winds coming from the SW bringing a lot of heavy rain

for many area's eventually causing flooding around Cumbria,

and much of Northern island but temperatures of 10-14c .A weather will move dwon from the north around 7-8th

bringing snow on the back edge for Scotland,N Ireland,N England and the hills

further south.9-11th looks calm and chilly with cold frosty nights.

But the 12-15th looks wet and windy with perhaps on the 12th snow on

the leading edge of a weather front as warmer air heads in.The 13th will be very stormy

will squally showers and troughs heading in off the atlantic.

By the 16th easterly winds arrive and will bring temps typically

of 3-7c across the UK and some cold nights.Then from 20-23rd

it looks like the atlantic wet weather will be back and give a deluge

of rain across the western and northern ireland as well as NW england

but less rain for the south east.As for 24-26th - Christmas time

it looks like westerly/north westerly winds will dominate the UK

bringing average temperature's and a green christmas for the south,

however further north will be cold enough for sleet/wet snow showers to lower levels

and heavy snow up in the scottish mountains.As for the remainder

of the month cold northerly winds will bring snow showers on the 27th

but things will be calmer on 28,29,30th.To end the year it looks

like a similar set up to 31st december 2003 is likely as a deep area

of low pressure moves in from the north west giving snow on

the leading edge.

December Overall: Changeable,cold,and wet.

Rainfall: Above Average

Temperature's: Slightly below average

CET: 4.0c (0.3c below 1961-1990 average,close to average category)

Sunshine: Average

Edited October 29, 2005 by conor123

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Forecast issued today from Beng

This forecast is simply based on gut feel/experience along with the forecast teleconnections for the winter period.

Dec

CET -1c anomoly

Rainfall 80%

The first few days starting off dry and about average temperature wise - blocking to our East affecting much of england and Wales. Scotland milder and wet in the far NW. Towards the end of the first week, a pulse of cold air will swing out of

Eastern Europe/Russia across W Europe affecting the far south of the UK in particularly where there may be some snowfall. All areas with below normal temperature. The block to the East will sink away SE wards at the middle of the month - allowing milder atlantic air to flood in for the run up to Christmas. Between Chistmas and the New Year, I expect a big trough in the jet to develop around the Eastern Seaboard of the US (PNA goes strongly positive). This forces a huge ridge up towards Greenland developing a large Greenland block - at the same time this merges with a Russian block (very similar to what happened last February synoptically) and the NAO turns strongly negative. The UK is exposed to a northerly and the Easterly blast up to the New Year. New Year itself will be cold with the likelyhood of snowfall in Eastern/Northern areas.

Jan

CET -2c anomoly

Rainfall 80%

A cold month with the positive PNA/negative NAO pattern persisting. The South (more especially South West) of the UK will have a few milder interludes as the Sub Tropical Jet pushes north occasionally - this could lead to big snow events on the northern boundary. The noticeable synoptic feature will be the lack of a polar jet in the NE Atlantic and a persistent Greenland/Icelandic High which will ridge towards Scandinavia at times. Scotland should have a severe month.

Feb

CET +1c anomoly

Rainfall 60%

A montht of 2 halves. Starting very cold in most areas with further snow. By the end of the second week, pressure will rises to the South of the UK and as the STJ pushes north, most areas will become mild. Scotland may hang on to the colder

conditions until the end of the third week. The second half of the month will be very mild and mainly dry.

[shuggee]

Here's Kold Weather's November forecast - hot off the press (but not affecting the possibility of cold spells, obviously).

Week 1

The start of November sees a trough digging down to our west.This trough is Vertically alinged right the way down to the surface.So the general pattern for the first week should be driven by a fairly northerly running jet stream.I can see The first few days being a tad on the unsettled side with LP systems swinging NE/NNE.This should ensure winds will likely contniue cming from the SW although this may change depending on the exact axis the LP takes.Fronts will cross the area from the west as the system passes to our north and could give a fairly wet midweek to most of the country although as normal in this set-up the south-east would be driest.It could also get a little gusty in the north.

Towards the end of the first week and we see a subtle change.A strong Jet streak emerges from NE America and with it a rapidly deepening LP system which goes from 990mbs to 940mbs in roughly 30hrs.What this does is throw a strong ridge towards Europe.What happens next will depend on what the LP I mentioned above does and its track,if it contniues eastwards then it'll encourage a bartlett type situation,while if it dives more south-eastwards we will form a block to our east which would cause SE/E winds.Either way we will keep the warm theme going,although if the low heads South-eastwards more we could see some good condtions for bonfire night as the high transfers northwards and thier could be a cooler intrusion for the north as the LP that was to our west on the firs few days transfers eastwards allowing for a WNW to start.

Week 2

The problem here is what to believe,either way I expect a generally settled start to the week with high pressure quite close by with a fairly strong jet to the north keeping us under winds from the west.Even a block forms to our east that should contniue to move away and by the midway part of the second week we should be back in the same set-up anyway.I expect that pressure will remian quite high over Europe and also to the our north-east and so south-westerlies with the odd secondary depressions spwaning of from the stronger depressions close to the PFJ.Towards the end of the week I think we will see the set-up become a little bit more favorable to us.I think a low pressure cell may start to dive south-eastwards and push down the north sea into Europe allowing for a NW intrusion to occur,hard to be exact and its just a hunch at this stage.For now I suspect it won't be anything major but I suppose it will give most areas thier first major frost.

Week 3

Pattern stays quite mobile with winds mainly coming in from the west.I also suspect another burst of energy will occur in the jet stream over this week but more importantly I can see the postion of the rosby waves to be more favorable for a more unsettled week with gales and heavy rain for the west.Also of note wil lbe the PFJ's track,I suspect it'll be a much more W-E rather then SW-NE pattern it would have been in since the start of the month.High pressure likely to be over the Azores but playing no real part in our weather and also pressure growing over Greenland but being stopped from advancing southwards by a strong jet.

Week 4

The end of the month I feel could be quite intresting.After being very active I think the jet will quieten down but more importantly for our weather I think we will see a strong trough digging down in the GIN sea with pressure building over Greenland and the Azores high heading towards the Mid-atlantic.This should hopefully spell the start of a decent northerly which would give a fair amount of snow to the north.This will topple though withthe jet being still to acitve but prehaps most intrestingly I have a hunch it may topple towards the U.K giving a few frosty days to enter December.After that and were into complete guesswork land I suppose but I think a fairly mobile December is on the card,possibly snowy for the north and Scotland at times.

CET-0.8C above

Rainfall-120% above in the north-west,80% in the south-east

Sunshine-80 in NW,95% in SE.

[shuggee]

Ken Ring's Winter Forecast 2005/6 and even a shot at next year!

Will it be a really cold winter?

The official forecasters are saying yes, but we beg to differ. One might well wonder, whatever happened to their notion of global warming? With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts.

Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small.

January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight.

The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over .

Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm.

The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild.

[The Eagle]

So mild it is then! :blink:

Well here is what i think. The tools used in long range forcasting include a Climate Model, and two Statistical Model Forecasts, all run in-house for the organisation to which it applies, in this case the met office. They also use sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, snow cover characteristics during the early season(metcheck seem to enjoy using this one!), and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) amongst other things.

For the period of December 2005 through February 2006, the outlook IMO is for a slightly colder-than-normal winter in all of Scandinavia, with the largest negative temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia and interestingly off the south and west coast of Greenland. Higher-than-normal temperatures are seen in all of mainland Europe, the UK, and Iberia. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in Iberia. This I think will be born out through a continued predominance of southwesterlies with the Azores high continuing to re-establish its posistion in mid - south North Atlantic and I reckon failing to migrate far enough north to ensure significant enough blocking for a prolonged Easterly over the these Islands at least. No, i think our highs will come and build off the North Atlantic ensuring cold nights but dry and not overly cold days. Weve seen this before in January's past and there is no reason to think differently this winter. I think the negative SSTs off Greenland will retreat although it looks good now, and mid Atlantic will start showing more negativity in temp anomalies.

For the period of January through March 2006, i reckon the outlook is for a colder-than-normal period in northern and central Scandinavia, with the largest negative temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia. Higher-than-normal temperatures I think will be in southern Scandinavia, all of mainland Europe and the UK, as well as Iberia. The largest positive temperature anomalies will probrably be expected, again in Iberia

After a very mild October, it is likely the warmth will stay for most of Europe during the rest of November as a very strong upper-air ridge has dominated for most of the month IMO. This pattern was predicted for October with the warmest temperatures (relative to normal) in northern Scandinavia and the UK and the coolest temperatures (relative to normal) in northern mainland Europe. This relatively warm pattern is slowly breaking as the warmest temperatures slide off slightly to the east, and a return to more seasonal temperatures is expected i think for much of the remainder of the month.

This marks the beginning of another pattern change, which will most likely bring much cooler weather to many parts of Europe in December. The dominant atmospheric phenomenon in European winters is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is in the positive phase, relatively warm and wet winters occur throughout much Scandinavia, UK, and northern mainland Europe. Negative NAO winters, on the other hand, are generally cold and dry. I think it is indicating a pattern strongly correlated with the negative phase of the NAO. In particular, another dry winter is indicated for Scandinavia. Conversely, the climate and statistical models that I am sighting, the NAO in particular seem to predict temperatures are going to be 'colder' than normal but this method is unproven IMO and therefore I suggest that a warmer-than-normal winter over much of Europe, which is usually associated with 'wetter-than-normal' conditions, may well occur.

My forcast for Winer , made November 07th and using actual November temperature anomaly (comlements of S Murr obviously) :

One of the main contributors to the hot European summer i think was the exceedingly warm ocean temperatures in and around Europe. Whilst England may not have broken records, certainly in the west we came very close. The mid-October data revealed slightly warmer-than-normal waters in and around Europe from most, if not all models. During the past month, these ocean temperatures have cooled further somewhat but they are still positive, relative to normal, and in fact, it is apparent that the oceans have not cooled significantly in all of the waters surrounding Europe. These changes increase the chances for less cooler-than-normal weather this winter though i think this is unlikely as the signs uncanningly point to mild at the moment.

As part of the seasonal forecasting process, numerous runs on what is called the Community Climate Model (CCM) version 3.6 in-house twice a month have been taking place constantly on a high-speed suite of computers. (im sure the met office has some of these!) The CCM, like all numerical models, is initialized with atmospheric and oceanic data before the run begins. Mathematical equations representing physical processes in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on the land are then used to predict the future state of atmosphere for the following six months. The CCM is run with two different land-surface modules, or so i believe (LSMs). An LSM controls the transfer of heat and moisture between the vegetation/soil and the overlying atmosphere. In order to quantify the skill of the CCM, you must have run the model in “hind cast” mode for 20 years or there about's for both LSMs. Based on the results of this long model i think we know where and when the model is or is not skillful for each of the two LSMs. The two LSMs each have their strengths and weaknesses, with one of the LSMs being more skillful in the warm season and the other in the cool season(Dec, Jan, Feb). Using this knowledge, the system intelligently combines the output from both LSMs to optimize the skill of the seasonal forecast which leads me to ask where did the met office garner its information?.

For this 4-month forecast period, the climate models and climitologists generally are predicting a continuation of the warmer-than-normal weather, with lower-than-normal temperatures generally confined to parts of eastern Scandinavia. Most certainly I will not back the METO as they are already in backtrack mode from their recent press releases. The changes between the output from the November model run and the October model run are relatively small.

So hence what we have seen.

Edited November 7, 2005 by Darkman