Unusual Winter?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think what has been unusual this winter (more so in comparison with last winter - so far) is the lack on snow (represented by the snow reports - seems alot more quiet this year).

However, whether you talk about rain or snow, it has been quiet. Rain has been scarce as well.

So probably, one main difference this year is that it has been a very dry winter (not sure how it compares record wise). But also, autumn seemed to be dry as well.

Another difference, pointed out by a number of people, has been the frosts. This year has probably been the best for the last 3 years?

So perhaps a cooler winter, but certainly, a drier one.

[The Enforcer]

How about this January freeze chaps, my dad just called, was going to go see him this weekend after seeing last weeks charts for N Italy, but decided not to go because our charts were looking just as good.

Well FI seemed to work ok for Athens yesterday, have a look at Genoa today, 0 asl on the med. 30cm fell in a few hrs, thats a foot!

He's up at 650m and its still snowing heavily at -6c, the ppn is expected to continue til Sat/Sun when the snow level is expected to rise to apx 1000m. Could end up with a good meter of level snow, currently 40cm, maybe more.

Currently its raining and windy in North Kent.

Anywhere in Europe has a better chance of seeing snow than the UK. Anywhere.

Edited January 26, 2006 by The Enforcer

[J10]

Including today we have recorded 22 frosts this winter so far, which is probably the best locally in the past 5 years.

[Rollo]

Evening Chris, the most noticable thing as far as I am concerned with relation to this area has been the lack of strong winds,maybe we have had one or two windy days at the most but as I hate the wind it is something I have been watching with interest. I suppose snowfall has been rare here with only a couple of days of proper falling snow and in all maybe 4 days of lying snow so far-very disappointing as I have only been able to take the 2 granddaughters sledging once.

[Zerouali lives]

Evening Chris, the most noticable thing as far as I am concerned with relation to this area has been the lack of strong winds,maybe we have had one or two windy days at the most but as I hate the wind it is something I have been watching with interest. I suppose snowfall has been rare here with only a couple of days of proper falling snow and in all maybe 4 days of lying snow so far-very disappointing as I have only been able to take the 2 granddaughters sledging once.

Indeed Mike- the stubborn high has meant many windless days, hower come the Spring I can assure you that the wind shall return - just like last April, May and even June - where there was a copious amount of strong northerlies during those months. Ah, nothing quite like getting a Northerly just when you like them!

Edited January 26, 2006 by Zerouali lives

[reef]

A question to Mr Data, are you using the 71-200 series for those stats, because that is the only way that 2003/04 winter could have 1 below average month.

The figures use the respective 30 year averages. Hence:

1981-1990: 1951-1980 average,

1991-2000: 1961-1990 average,

2001 onwards: 1971-2000 average.

[John Cox]

Including today we have recorded 22 frosts this winter so far, which is probably the best locally in the past 5 years.

Same here in Ireland.

Coldest winter since 2001

Evening Chris, the most noticable thing as far as I am concerned with relation to this area has been the lack of strong winds,maybe we have had one or two windy days at the most but as I hate the wind it is something I have been watching with interest. I suppose snowfall has been rare here with only a couple of days of proper falling snow and in all maybe 4 days of lying snow so far-very disappointing as I have only been able to take the 2 granddaughters sledging once.

H Rollo,

Nice to see you you love your grandchildren so much.

They are very lucky

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Evening Chris, the most noticable thing as far as I am concerned with relation to this area has been the lack of strong winds,maybe we have had one or two windy days at the most but as I hate the wind it is something I have been watching with interest.

Hi Mike.

Thats very true, and I suppose, is linked with the lack of rain. Atlantic depressions (I think thats right) have been very minimal this winter (and autumn), so not only has there been less water, the winds have been alot less in speed.

Thinking back though, that is actually quite strange, as even though i've seen the odd autumn go by with low average wind speeds, by this point in winter, we would have usually had one or two rain type storm/stormy periods.

[WhiteFox]

I think what has been unusual this winter (more so in comparison with last winter - so far) is the lack on snow (represented by the snow reports - seems alot more quiet this year).

On current trends, there'll be a rain reports thread coming soon. At last: something on which the South-East may be able to lead!

[Weather-history]

The figures use the respective 30 year averages. Hence:

1981-1990: 1951-1980 average,

1991-2000: 1961-1990 average,

2001 onwards: 1971-2000 average.

Thats how I did it.

[osmposm]

I suspect this is one for TWS or Mr Data, but if the next couple of weeks are cool - as seems likely - but dry, then we are facing the prospect, given some cool weather further on in February of, potentially, the coolest winter on record with little or no snow.

....which would, if it continues that way, be rather the opposite of a famous - indeed, star-studded - longterm forecast often discussed on here, which was for a winter not as cold (nor colder) than last, but with significant snow events mentioned - especially for much of the second half of January/into February, and then for the end of February.

January certainly hasn't delivered.....and I'd much rather have a snowy Feb than have my doubts about the forecaster confirmed, believe me. We're also, of course, still desperately in need of any kind of precipitation here in the South.

[da_bish]

What's all this talk about cold and snow and sledging? Can someone explain what snow is again to me, I would be grateful. Just don't seem to get anything in Oxfordshire except rain.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Judging by this morning's models we could be looking at a rubbish and often mild February. The GFS & Ensembles show mainly zonality throughout the run. Brian Gaze on TWO forecasted a cold wintry February in his winter forecast. He did not forecast that January would be up to much, so he has been pretty accuarate so far, but I think his February forecast could be going down the pan.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Judging by this morning's models we could be looking at a rubbish and often mild February. The GFS & Ensembles show mainly zonality throughout the run. Brian Gaze on TWO forecasted a cold wintry February in his winter forecast. He did not forecast that January would be up to much, so he has been pretty accuarate so far, but I think his February forecast could be going down the pan.

The thing is the NEB, we are still in January, so its a bit hard to call what Feb is going to be like (especially taking into account certain possabilities of the jet going south etc discussed on the model threads).

We still have 5 days left of January, and when you think about the supposed easterly of this week (and how quickly that changed), by Tuesday next week (31st), the ensembles could show something completely different.

[drgl]

Evening Chris, the most noticable thing as far as I am concerned with relation to this area has been the lack of strong winds,maybe we have had one or two windy days at the most but as I hate the wind it is something I have been watching with interest. I suppose snowfall has been rare here with only a couple of days of proper falling snow and in all maybe 4 days of lying snow so far-very disappointing as I have only been able to take the 2 granddaughters sledging once.

The lack of wind is getting very earie here now! I honestly can't remember it being so still for so long in this country!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed Mike- the stubborn high has meant many windless days, hower come the Spring I can assure you that the wind shall return - just like last April, May and even June - where there was a copious amount of strong northerlies during those months. Ah, nothing quite like getting a Northerly just when you like them! :blink: :blink:

Even spring northerlies seem to have lost their bite. These days, if a northerly blows in April or May, or sometimes even March, the result will be blustery showers of rain and hail, perhaps some sleet- I only remember "northerly" spring snowfalls on 3-4 April 2000, 18-20 April 2001 and 8 April 2005 since the 2000s began. That said, it also snowed from E'ly winds in March 2001.

By contrast, most Aprils during the 1990s had at least one snowy incursion from the N or (as in the case of 1994) NW. The Aprils of 1998 and 1999 contained particularly potent northerlies, while in 1995 I remember all three of the spring months containing widespread late snowfalls.

[Optimus Prime]

What I find remakable are the cold summer easterlys of late.

The easterly of 28th July 2005 was very potent in coldness for so late in Summer. With Durham regestering a measly 10.9c!

http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/...cka20050728.gif

The easterly of July 8th was one of the coldest for summer ever recorded. Temperatures widely didn't get above 14c with an easterly gale (I remember walking upto town with a coat on and seeing a willow tree blown down) with 50MPH gusts. Some places didn't get into double figures with with Sennybridge struggling to 9.6c! which is some 12c below average!

http

://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/...040708.gif

To be honest, our easterly in summer seem to be colder than our easterlys in winter! :blink: And yet we still manage to record above average Julys.

Edited January 27, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[Summer of 95]

For snow this winter has been poor, verging on rubbish so far- we missed all the settling stuff in November and in December had just enough on the morning of the 28th to count as a snow-lying day, then another cm or so late on 29th which had gone by next morning (turned to rain sooner than forecast); afternoon of 7th Jan a period of quite heavy wet snow which did eventually give a 1cm covering of which enough was left next morning for that day to count.

I've seen 1991-2 mentioned; that was THE most abysmal winter for snow in these parts. In fact I do not remember one single day when snow even fell, let alone settled; although at times it was frosty we had day after day of cool but dull and cloudy weather- not even the gales and floods which brought something of note to some rubbish winters eg 1989-90, 1997-8. What made it worse was that March and April were no more exciting- mild, dull and rainy- but then there was a silver lining eventually with an awesome May.

1993-4 I've also seen mentioned- I'd happily take a repeat of Feb 1994 which is in the top 5 snowiest months I've seen in Shrewsbury since moving here in 1987.

[Bottesford]

Now some of us are starting to think towards spring & summer - how about a sub forum for spring/summer predictions? Just like we had at end of last summer for winter...

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

3/4 days of lying snow here which equates to being pretty average, alot of benign boring cloudy days. Regards to temps there have been many cool to fairly cold days here which is quite strange in the consistancy mainly due to a weak continental flow but nothing extreme apart from a few days after Xmas but since then January has been disappointing. February so far on the models also does not look good.

[Weather-history]

The one thing I've noted about this mid November- January period is the lack of really mild days for Manchester. We've only had 7 days with a double digit maximum since the 16th of November. Which is fairly notable

Edited February 1, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

The one thing I've noted about this mid November- January period is the lack of really mild days for Manchester. We've only had 7 days with a double digit maximum since the 16th of November. Which is fairly notable

And we've still only had 7 double digit maxima since the 16th of November.

The lack of snow has been notable but we've had fairly snowless winters in the recent past such as 1988-90, 1992-93, 1997-98, 1999-2000. However the lack of really mild days since the 16th of November has been notable, we have to go back at least to 1978-79 for Manchester to find a period as low as this. Winter 1990-91 also had a lack of really mild days from 16th of November-8th of February with just 8 double digit maxima.

For instance the period 16th November 1984- 8th February 1985 had 22 double digit maxima.

Edited February 9, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Bottesford]

And we've still only had 7 double digit maxima since the 16th of November.

The lack of snow has been notable but we've had fairly snowless winters in the recent past such as 1988-90, 1992-93, 1997-98, 1999-2000. However the lack of really mild days since the 16th of November has been notable, we have to go back at least to 1978-79 for Manchester to find a period as low as this. Winter 1990-91 also had a lack of really mild days from 16th of November-8th of February with just 8 double digit maxima.

For instance the period 16th November 1984- 8th February 1985 had 22 double digit maxima.

It has certainly been notably colder this winter. No mild days very much unlike last year when I remember 12C- at night - in early Jan!

I think this lack of double digit days is going to come to an end soon though. Once the south-westerlies flow in it'll warm up- especially in the sunny breaks between fronts.

[PhilipEden]

And we've still only had 7 double digit maxima since the 16th of November.

The lack of snow has been notable but we've had fairly snowless winters in the recent past such as 1988-90, 1992-93, 1997-98, 1999-2000. However the lack of really mild days since the 16th of November has been notable, we have to go back at least to 1978-79 for Manchester to find a period as low as this.

This is something I've notice in this district (Luton) as well, Kevin. I've just asked my spreadsheet to tot up the figures since Dec 1 for the whole of the UK and Ireland - isn't Excel wonderful? - and it shows some interesting variations.

As you'd expect, the far southwest comes out way ahead of anywhere else with 43 at Valentia and 42 at Scilly, but then the northwest comes into play as well ... Belmullet 29, Machrihanish 24, Culdrose 23, Barra 23, Milford Haven 22, Plymouth 21, Chivenor 21, Stornoway 19, Tiree 19, St Mawgan 19, Camborne 19, Stornoway 19 ... and surprisingly Altnaharra 19 and Lossiemouth 18.

The lowest are the hilly areas, again as you'd expect ... even the modestly upland sites of Eskdalemuir, Fylingdales (NYorks), Thorncliffe (Staffs), Lake Vyrnwy and Sennybridge (both Powys) all register zero days of 10°C or more, and there've been only 2 such days at Dunkeswell (Blackdown Hills), Kenley (North Downs), Little Rissington (Cotswolds), High Wycombe (Chilterns), Waddington (Lincoln Edge) and the relatively low-level Wattisham (Suffolk) and Andrewsfield (Essex).

Philip

[Terminal Moraine]

Zero days reaching 10c here too so far this winter. The last winter when none of the three months reached 10c was 1996 which had a max' of 9.5c on Dec' 3rd. Prior to that it was 1976/77.

T.M