Unusual Winter?

[drfeelgood]

Any stats on London? I don't recall very many 10C+ days down here either....

[Weather-history]

This is something I've notice in this district (Luton) as well, Kevin. I've just asked my spreadsheet to tot up the figures since Dec 1 for the whole of the UK and Ireland - isn't Excel wonderful? - and it shows some interesting variations.

As you'd expect, the far southwest comes out way ahead of anywhere else with 43 at Valentia and 42 at Scilly, but then the northwest comes into play as well ... Belmullet 29, Machrihanish 24, Culdrose 23, Barra 23, Milford Haven 22, Plymouth 21, Chivenor 21, Stornoway 19, Tiree 19, St Mawgan 19, Camborne 19, Stornoway 19 ... and surprisingly Altnaharra 19 and Lossiemouth 18.

The lowest are the hilly areas, again as you'd expect ... even the modestly upland sites of Eskdalemuir, Fylingdales (NYorks), Thorncliffe (Staffs), Lake Vyrnwy and Sennybridge (both Powys) all register zero days of 10°C or more, and there've been only 2 such days at Dunkeswell (Blackdown Hills), Kenley (North Downs), Little Rissington (Cotswolds), High Wycombe (Chilterns), Waddington (Lincoln Edge) and the relatively low-level Wattisham (Suffolk) and Andrewsfield (Essex).

Philip

Interesting Phil, it says to me that there has been a lack of tropical airmasses flooding the UK since the middle of November, which has been the problem of recent winters.

Those who believe that the Mother Nature likes to balance the books may argue that we are paying for the Autumn, when tropical airmasses was a frequent visitor but I'm not convinced by these counter-balances.

[Stratos Ferric]

That is a good stat / measure, and reinforces my point from a few pages back that this is a surprisingly unwintry winter (very much a "wonter") given the lack of warmth.

Interesting Phil, it says to me that there has been a lack of tropical airmasses flooding the UK since the middle of November, which has been the problem of recent winters.

Those who believe that the Mother Nature likes to balance the books may argue that we are paying for the Autumn, when tropical airmasses was a frequent visitor but I'm not convinced by these counter-balances.

Interestingly enough my climate tutor at college, one of the country's pre-eminent climatologists at the time and the author of some works that are still seminal, used to observe, in stentorian tones, that regarding long range trends "you know, all my years of experience tell me only one thing: they average out in the end".

I tend to agree with this. It's only two years (or is it three) since the national press were capmed in the Kent Weald reporting unprecedented floods: now there's a thread here chuntering on about water shortages in the SE.

If you think about it what CG said MUST be more or less true. We have climate that changes only slowly: therefore, any short-term weather deviation away from the climatic norm shoud be corrected downstream by something opposite. Underneath this, of course, is a process of slow change - currently one of warming, but the short term correction will hold more strength than the long term change until, and unless, there is dramatic short-term forcing.

Where I do agree with your point is that one cannot simply assume that because one season, or one month, has one extreme, the next will have the opposite. The correction is more random than that, but it will correct.

[johnholmes]

hi

Some very interesting posts here, and what a refreshing change for constructive posts, rather than the 'yar boo' variety on so much of this site sadly recently.

The comment about lack of Tropical Maritime is perhaps the key. That is, along with the proximity of High Pressure for it being dry and relatively a touch below normal(temperature wise).

As to why, and is it a pattern, I really have no idea.

It does amuse me sometimes to hear that the Pacific is the key to our weather. In Japan then the 'key' is presumably the Atlantic! What seems to get lost is the idea Rossby showed many years ago, the well known Rossby waves which cover the whole globe, albeit in his case, just the northern hemisphere.

Without the computer we would be back to my initial position as a 'newby' forecaster in the Met Office in the early/mid 1970's, when to be able to predict the right airmass, let alone the temperature and weather in any detail, was barely possible more than 48 hours ahead, and certainly not beyond 72 hours.

regards

John

Interestingly enough my climate tutor at college, one of the country's pre-eminent climatologists at the time and the author of some works that are still seminal, used to observe, in stentorian tones, that regarding long range trends "you know, all my years of experience tell me only one thing: they average out in the end".

can I ask who that was?

Not Hubert I hope(Lamb)!

But I do like that quote.

John

[Stratos Ferric]

hi

Interestingly enough my climate tutor at college, one of the country's pre-eminent climatologists at the time and the author of some works that are still seminal, used to observe, in stentorian tones, that regarding long range trends "you know, all my years of experience tell me only one thing: they average out in the end".

can I ask who that was?

Not Hubert I hope(Lamb)!But I do like that quote.

John

Great call, very drole.

No: CG (Gordon) Smith. Wrote several tomes on climate. Also very active in the intelligence corps during WWII. Quite a character.

[johnholmes]

yep, heard of him, but never did meet him.

[PhilipEden]

Interesting Phil, it says to me that there has been a lack of tropical airmasses flooding the UK since the middle of November, which has been the problem of recent winters.

Well, yes, you're right up to a point. The only thing I would add is that the tropical airmasses have still been flooding western and northern parts of the British Isles, but on practically every occasion we've had high pressure somewhere near southern Britain, so that down here the tropical air sat above the subsidence inversion while stagnant cooler air remained beneath the inversion. Hence the large number of of 10+ days at places like Kinloss, Lossiemouth, Edinburgh, Aberdeen.

As for London ... 12 days at Heathrow, 14 at LWC and Gravesend, but only 7 days at Hampstead 140m above MSL and 2 days at Kenley (175m).

And SF's tutor ... he gave it away by mentioning CG, although CGS would have even more helpful ! ... Dr Smith of Oxford and Lost-in-Space.

Philip

And SF's tutor ... he gave it away by mentioning CG, although CGS would have even more helpful ! ... Dr Smith of Oxford and Lost-in-Space.

Ah ... you've already done that bit!

P

[Methuselah]

And SF's tutor ... he gave it away by mentioning CG, although CGS would have even more helpful ! ... Dr Smith of Oxford and Lost-in-Space.

Philip

Ah ... you've already done that bit!

P

Never fear, Smith is here! :wacko:

As you say Phil, the weather has been a tad 'odd' up here so-far this year...I can't recall precisely which day it was. But I heard you say on Five Live (in the middle of the night!) that it was -5 in Aberdeen...How pleasantly surpised I was, to find that here in Inverness, it had shot-up to +5ish by 7am...The inversion of the previous 4 days had been well-and-trully blown away!

[Stoxs]

average is the word for this winter

nothing more nothing less as yet it might still come up with a little surprise .We wil have to wait and see

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

The most unusual thing about this winter is the dryness (well here in these parts anyway) and apart from that the amount of dull benign days.

So far I have had about 42mm of rain for the whole winter!!

This winter will not be remembered for its cold or snow, so as we say every year maybe next winter.

[SP1986]

The most unusual thing about this winter is the dryness (well here in these parts anyway) and apart from that the amount of dull benign days.

So far I have had about 42mm of rain for the whole winter!!

This winter will not be remembered for its cold or snow, so as we say every year maybe next winter.

To us agreed that we wont see it as cold. On the other hand however, the general public will remember it has being colder than usual - let's not forget the general public are not like us, they just say what they feel, and at the end of they day it is about how it feels. I can't remember the last time a mother of 3 pulled a thermometer out of her handbag, and proclaimed "3.4°C -- hmm not quite cold yet!"

[drgl]

To us agreed that we wont see it as cold. On the other hand however, the general public will remember it has being colder than usual - let's not forget the general public are not like us, they just say what they feel, and at the end of they day it is about how it feels. I can't remember the last time a mother of 3 pulled a thermometer out of her handbag, and proclaimed "3.4°C -- hmm not quite cold yet!"

funny because we have had a lot more frost and ice day's than previous winters here..... snow has been about on par of previous years-maybe a little less.....SO FAR.

[PhilipEden]

The most unusual thing about this winter is the dryness (well here in these parts anyway) and apart from that the amount of dull benign days.

So far I have had about 42mm of rain for the whole winter!!

This winter will not be remembered for its cold or snow, so as we say every year maybe next winter.

I'd say that, if we are ranking the unusual aspects of this winter, the absence of strong winds has been at least on a par with the lack of rain. Here in Luton I have had just 9 days with gusts >30mph since the beginning of November. There were 9 such days last October alone, and I don't remember that as a particularly windswept month. There were 30 in Dec/Jan/Feb last winter, and 42 in winter 2001-02.

Philip

[SP1986]

I'd say that, if we are ranking the unusual aspects of this winter, the absence of strong winds has been at least on a par with the lack of rain. Here in Luton I have had just 9 days with gusts >30mph since the beginning of November. There were 9 such days last October alone, and I don't remember that as a particularly windswept month. There were 30 in Dec/Jan/Feb last winter, and 42 in winter 2001-02.

Philip

Indeed.. and perhaps the lack of winds have been the reason for a cooler winter than we may have had. (ie where winds might winds might warm air up due to friction etc)

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yes the consistancy of the cool days has been of note with very few 'double figure' days - without looking at my records I think there were 2 in January and 1 in December and so far none this month which undoubtedly beats winters such as 1995/1996 and 1996/97! But would I be right in saying to date that winter 2000/01 has been cooler/colder than this one?

[Terminal Moraine]

I'd say that, if we are ranking the unusual aspects of this winter, the absence of strong winds has been at least on a par with the lack of rain.

Philip

Very true, Philip. So far this winter I've recorded only 2 gale days ( mean speed 39 mph or more for 10 mins) and even these were consecutive days in December when the gale happened to span midnight.

Last January alone had 12 gale days and the winter (Dec' -Feb' ) average here over the last 22 years is 11.

It still won't beat the record low number in 1985 however as in that winter there was only 1.

T.M

[Optimus Prime]

The fact we haven't seen any sustained very cold days since November combined with some rather mild nights has meant, overall therefore temperatures have been about the longterm average rather then distinctly below average.

To me, it's been a very average winter. Very little very mild but at the same time very little very mildness. Somewhere in-between.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'd say that, if we are ranking the unusual aspects of this winter, the absence of strong winds has been at least on a par with the lack of rain. Here in Luton I have had just 9 days with gusts >30mph since the beginning of November. There were 9 such days last October alone, and I don't remember that as a particularly windswept month. There were 30 in Dec/Jan/Feb last winter, and 42 in winter 2001-02.

Philip

I guess that would be expected though if one assumes the lack of rain has to indicate HP dominating. Are there any instances of dry yet windy winters?

[Weather-history]

My winter rating for Manchester is likely to end up about 55.

From the 16th of November, the extended winter index rating is 77

16th November-26th February

Average max: ~6C

Average min: ~2.2C

Lack of really mild days has been very notable. Few days with double digit maxima.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I guess that would be expected though if one assumes the lack of rain has to indicate HP dominating. Are there any instances of dry yet windy winters?

I don't know, but I would've thought 1988/89 would be a good candidate in eastern and southern England.

[Dave J]

The highest recorded temperature at my parents house AWS was just +10.4C. The last time that +11C was recorded was November 11th which is now 111 days ago. Only 53% of the average rainfall was recorded over the 3 month period and temperatures were around average (0.3C below) but by day they were almost a degree below average, and so had nights been clearer we may have had a much colder winter.

We had below average snow with only 4 days recorded when it was lying at 09Z and 5cm as the maximum total depth. However, just a slight change in synoptics and further weakening of the Atlantic jet would have easily brought the very cold and snowy weather that dominated Europe (-30C in Russia, -15C in Germany and heavy snows for S France, Italy and the Alpine regions) during January across to our shores and we'd have been having a very different conversation today when summing up the winter. Close but no cigar sums it up for me..

Edited March 3, 2006 by Dave J

[Thundery wintry showers]

Of course, winter 2005/06 hasn't been remotely similar to winter 1994/95 in terms of weather type distibution and synoptic patterns- but snow-wise it looks pretty similar for parts of northern and western Britain, with a largely snowless winter quarter, and then a wintry start to March.

Interesting that in a limited portion of north-western Britain this winter was actually warmer than winter 2004/05, which says a lot about the persistence of maritime airmasses in the NW, versus a more continental influence in the SE.

[Timmytour]

It's been dry this winter.

And, as has been pointed out, pretty cool and windless. Had it been mild and windy, the effect of such a dry winter would have been a lot more dramatic I suspect. A rare combination 'tis true, but not impossible. So I guess we should be grateful for small mercies.

As for me, this winter has bought one depressing re-occuring theme. Snow "alerts" which turn out either to miss us completely, disappear before they reach us, fall as rain rather than snow, or, if we are lucky, give us a dusting where we hoped for a pasting.

I have a daughter of seven who has never seen a snowfall where talk of inches becomes appropriate. Where snow has been piled up by the wind and takes a day longer to thaw then the rest. Where you can build a snowman without exposing the grass around it!

And yet in all that time the risks, the chances, the promises and indeed the warnings of moderate snowfalls have been there. They've just never materialised.

It's an uncanny run. I believe the chances of calling heads or tails directly 20 times in a row are getting on for a million to one. Well, I'm thinking of all the times over the last ten years there's been a forecast giving us a reasonable chance of a snowfall producing a covering of two inches or more.

And I'm thinking that we've been at the wrong end of a one in a million occurrence

Is it global warming, or forecasting made worse by technology? I don't know. But it's depressing. And debilitating. And I wish to God I could stop raising my hopes every time because in spite of myself I get excited and I get the kids excited.....and then I'm a bad father and am made to feel even worse than I would by myself!

Please...let next winter be one that makes up for the last umpteen years. But for now.....roll on spring roll on summer and roll on thunderstorms.

Winter 2005/6..I've finally given up on you!