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Spring Forecasts


SNOW-MAN2006

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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

    March -

    March will start with a continuation of colder weather from the previous month. blizzards may introduce the month as vry cold arctic winds will grip most of the country. But by the first weekend the atlantic will be back in control of the UK's weather and we will be at the first stage of a few weeks of wet and windy weather. we will see a gradual breakdown to this weather as the low pressure to the east of the uk heads back into the near conteinent. we will see many wet days alternating between sunny and quite mild days. but during the 3rd week i think high opressure will once again re-build over the uk and introduce cool south easterly winds bringing light drizle and cloud to the south east but everywhere else should experience cool but settled weather. uring the final week we can expect a link up with the azores high bringing warm southerlies that will give us a nice and warm end to march.

    April-

    April will contain a month of two halves. it will start pretty much like the last week week of march. warm southerlies will prevail keeping it mild to warm. although it will be mild it may well be cloudier as the sea's start to warm and fog may become a problem. the second part of the month will turn alot cooler and unsettled. this wil mark the end to our warm weather and a few thunderstorms may occur in the change. we are to come under an unstable airstream giving mountain snow but any where under 1000ft can expect very little if any. towards the end of the month though i expect high pressure to re-assert itself over the British isles.

    may-

    may will begin showery will westerlie winds but high pressure will quickly assert ifself re-introducing milder weather but not warm. this month will be fairly settled and very dry but i expect it to remain average temperature wise and therefore nothing exceptional. sunshine will be above average but as we head owards the end of the month a very deep area of low pressure may bring strong winds and storms to crash out of spring 2006 in style.

    look forward to reading all your thoughts to.

    have a go and see how much of a forecaster you can be.

    SNOW-MAN2006

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Yippee a spring thread!

    Total guesswork but I'm thinking that it'll be pretty warm, mainly due to it being so dry across western Europe. Dryer ground heats up quicker. Of course it depends on the wind direction with south to south-easterlies being the warmest.

    Rainfall - well I think April will be the wettest month (as usual) with March being fairly blocked (as has been the case in most Marches of late). I think the rain in April will come as convective showers on north-westerlies rather than big Atlantic storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast.

    The cold weather at the beginning of March will gradually intensify as the month progresses bringing huge amounts of snow and a mean temp' comparable with that of 1674. The Arctic weather persists throughout April with frequent night frost, snow and hail, the month ends as the coldest since 1917. During early May Atlantic depressions try to push north eastward against a bitterly cold block resulting in the most severe late spring snowstorms since the 18th century.

    By late May the huge snowdrifts begin to melt but the air is so chilled that we are led, whimpering, into the coldest and most adverse summer since man learned how to write.

    After a couple of months of slow thawing the majority of the snow is gone, just in time for the early start of a winter so cold that, by comparison, 1684 is like mid-April and 1947 has a scattering of snow.

    I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

    T.M

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
    I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast.

    The cold weather at the beginning of March will gradually intensify as the month progresses bringing huge amounts of snow and a mean temp' comparable with that of 1674. The Arctic weather persists throughout April with frequent night frost, snow and hail, the month ends as the coldest since 1917. During early May Atlantic depressions try to push north eastward against a bitterly cold block resulting in the most severe late spring snowstorms since the 18th century.

    By late May the huge snowdrifts begin to melt but the air is so chilled that we are led, whimpering, into the coldest and most adverse summer since man learned how to write.

    After a couple of months of slow thawing the majority of the snow is gone, just in time for the early start of a winter so cold that, by comparison, 1684 is like mid-April and 1947 has a scattering of snow.

    I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

    T.M

    :lol: spot on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
    I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast.

    The cold weather at the beginning of March will gradually intensify as the month progresses bringing huge amounts of snow and a mean temp' comparable with that of 1674. The Arctic weather persists throughout April with frequent night frost, snow and hail, the month ends as the coldest since 1917. During early May Atlantic depressions try to push north eastward against a bitterly cold block resulting in the most severe late spring snowstorms since the 18th century.

    By late May the huge snowdrifts begin to melt but the air is so chilled that we are led, whimpering, into the coldest and most adverse summer since man learned how to write.

    After a couple of months of slow thawing the majority of the snow is gone, just in time for the early start of a winter so cold that, by comparison, 1684 is like mid-April and 1947 has a scattering of snow.

    I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

    T.M

    Oh god no please!! :lol: Sounds absolutely 'orrid!

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Are any of the more experienced forecasters putting together a spring (or even summer) forecast? I'd be really interested in a more qualified view on the next season. We had autumn/winter forecasts coming out of our ears by late August/Sept so how about a spring one? It's less than a week away now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    My forecast update will be released on sunday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I don't think I'm up to seasonal forecasting- I could do one, but I would most likely get it horribly wrong for April and May. Ian Brown is bound to be doing a spring forecast soon and his seasonal forecasts have a reasonable track record, considering how difficult it is to forecast at that sort of range.

    Around the 1st March I will be releasing a forecast for March, and the current monthly discussion contains info on what I expect for March, although the northerlies over Europe are set to spread to us rather sooner than I expected (26 February rather than the beginning of March) and I might have underdone the significance of the northerly- we'll have to see on that one, and I will certainly be updating it promptly this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England

    Well Spring (and March) starts in just over 3 days and with a fairly cold end to winter I would expect a fairly unsettled and wet start to spring, however it will most likely turn anticyclonic at some point in mid-March with some warm spring sunshine to be enjoyed but still the risk of some quite sharp overnight frosts.

    The colder than average North Sea and snow covered Europe may suppress temperatures from time to time when anticyclones drift north and pull in an Northeasterly, Easterly or Southeasterly flow.

    I think overall it'll probably be a slightly above average March with a warm spell mid-month offsetting the predicted cold snap for next week.

    That said, I could be completely wrong. ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Well the Met Office's long range forecasts go for warm, warm, warm right up until June. Their winter forecast was spot on so hopefully, their spring one is too!

    (issued in Jan):

    Feb-Mar-Apr

    Mar-Apr-May

    Apr-May-Jun

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, I have to say that my views on the upcoming spring are diametrically opposed to TM's! :cold:

    After a cold start, March will be the warmest since the Cretaceous Period: reservoirs will evaporate before-our-very-eyes as temps approach 45C come the very end of the month.

    April will see the first case of chickens laying ready-boiled eggs; May and June will see lead pipes melting off the walls, and running drainage-pipe caulking will cause sanitary collapse...

    Come July and car-tyres, dogs and people will start spontaneously combusting - especially around the time of the full moon. It's almost a law, you know! :D

    March CET of 26C;

    April CET of 39C;

    May CET of 77C;

    June CET of 442C;

    July CET of 865C...

    My CET forecast is based on teleconnection and SSTs (molten lead) for Venus! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    March

    My March forecast is based upon sea surface temperatures, which i think can be used to forecast future teleconnection patterns however as the averages were not updated on the sea surface temperature anomoly chart for the first week of February, my original week one forecast for March stands however confidence is only around 50%, the confidence level for the other three weeks is around 75%.

    Here is the raw data for March...

    March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

    March week 2 - The Jet Stream in the Pacific Ocean will be northerly tracking due to the warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the Central Pacific Ocean favouring a confluent Jet Stream however due to the warm sea surface temperature anomoly to the west of Canada also favouring high pressure there may be undercutting of the ridge to the west of Canada which would favour a highly amplified Jet Stream over the United States Of America although the PNA index for the second week of March will be neutral to slightly negative, the Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a cold sea surface temperature anomoly in the southern Atlantic Ocean favouring a dominant Sub-Tropical Jet Stream and a negative NAO, this is amplified by a warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the central Atlantic Ocean favouring a mid-Atlantic ridge and also a negative NAO as well as a cold sea surafce temperature anomoly to the east of Greenland favouring a weak thermal gradiant, the NAO value for the second weak of March is expected to be highly negative, this is spported by a negative AO, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine will be above average and rainfall will be below average.

    March week 2 - The Jet Stream in the Pacific Ocean will be northerly tracking due to the warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the Central Pacific Ocean favouring a confluent Jet Stream however due to a warm sea surface temperature anomoly to the west of Canada also favouring high pressure there may be undercutting of the ridge to the west of Canada which would favour a highly amplified Jet Stream over the United States Of America although the PNA index for the second week of March will be neutral to slightly negative, the Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a cold sea surface temperature anomoly in the southern Atlantic Ocean favouring a dominant Sub-Tropical Jet Stream and a negative NAO, this is amplified by a warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the central Atlantic Ocean favouring a mid-Atlantic ridge and also a negative NAO as well as a cold sea surafce temperature anomoly to the east of Greenland favouring a weak thermal gradiant, the NAO value for the second weak of March is expected to be highly negative, this is spported by a negative AO, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine will be above average and rainfall will be below average.

    March week 3 - The Jet Stream in the Pacific Ocean will be northerly tracking due to the warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the Central Pacific Ocean favouring a confluent Jet Stream however due to a average sea surface temperature anomoly to the west of Canada also favouring high or low pressure there will be minimal undercutting of the ridge to the west of Canada and a flatter Jet Stream over the United States Of America with the PNA index for the third week of March expected to be neutral to negative, the Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a cold sea surface temperature anomoly in the southern Atlantic Ocean favouring a dominant Sub-Tropical Jet Stream and a negative NAO, this is amplified by a warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the central Atlantic Ocean favouring a mid-Atlantic ridge and a negative NAO as well as a cold sea surafce temperature anomoly to the east of Greenland favouring a weak thermal gradiant, the NAO value for the second weak of March is expected to be negative, this is spported by a negative AO, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine will be above average and rainfall will be below average.

    March week 4 - The Jet Stream in the Pacific Ocean will be northerly tracking due to the warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the Central Pacific Ocean favouring a confluent Jet Stream however due to a average sea surface temperature anomoly to the west of Canada also favouring high or low pressure there will be minimal undercutting of the ridge to the west of Canada and a flatter Jet Stream over the United States Of America with the PNA index for the third week of March expected to be neutral to negative, the Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a cold sea surface temperature anomoly in the southern Atlantic Ocean favouring a dominant Sub-Tropical Jet Stream and a negative NAO, this is amplified by a warm sea surface temperature anomoly in the central Atlantic Ocean favouring a mid-Atlantic ridge and a negative NAO as well as a cold sea surafce temperature anomoly to the east of Greenland favouring a weak thermal gradiant, however there is a higher chance of the ridge toppling during this week, the NAO value for the second weak of March is expected to be negative, this is spported by a negative AO, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine will be above average and rainfall will be below average.

    CET - 2.3C - 4C below average

    Rainfall - below average

    Sunshine - above average

    April

    My April and May forecasts is based upon teleconnection patterns over the past three months, there is a 50% confidence level in these forecasts.

    Here is the raw data for April...

    April week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

    April week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

    April week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    April week 4 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

    April week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

    April week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA however the Jet Stream will be zonal and rise northward sharply due to a positive AO meaning that there is no ridge to berificate the Jet Stream and keep most of the energy on a southerly track and as a result a Bartlett High with a notherly tracking Jet Stream and a positive NAO will prevail for this week, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

    April week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negitive PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Polar Votex will sink into Baffin Island and as a result, while the NAO is positive, pressure will build from the east of the British Isles and there will be a easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

    April week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

    CET - 9.6C, 1.5C above average

    Rainfall - Average

    Sunshine - Average

    May

    Here is the raw data for May...

    May week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

    May week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

    May week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    May week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    May week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO, with a easterly for the British Isles due to a ridge over Scandinavia and a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

    May week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO however due to a Azores High ridging into Europe the Jet Stream will rise northward forcing a positive NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

    May week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO which will force a positive NAO and a Bartlett High, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

    May week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO however the Azores High will retrogress westward enougth for a toppler due to a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be average.

    CET - 11.8C - 0.5C above average

    Rainfall - below average

    Sunshine - above average

    Spring summary

    The overall Spring CET will be 9.2C, which is 0.7C below average, i expect rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average and as a result this spring will be categorised as cool, sunny and dry. I am expecting one of the coldest marches on record and i am also expecting March to contrast strongly with the rest of spring which i expect to be above average. The main periods of note this spring will be the whole of March for cold weather and the second week of April and the third week of May for hot weather.

    Here is my March forecast based purely on teleconnection patterns over the past three months, my February forecast based purely on teleconnection patterns was quite successfull.

    Here is the raw data for March...

    March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

    March week 3 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

    March week 4 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA

    March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

    March week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.

    March week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

    March week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

    CET - 5.2C, 1.1C below average

    Sunshine - Below average

    Rainfall - Above average

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
    I don't do forecasts so here's a hopecast.

    The cold weather at the beginning of March will gradually intensify as the month progresses bringing huge amounts of snow and a mean temp' comparable with that of 1674. The Arctic weather persists throughout April with frequent night frost, snow and hail, the month ends as the coldest since 1917. During early May Atlantic depressions try to push north eastward against a bitterly cold block resulting in the most severe late spring snowstorms since the 18th century.

    By late May the huge snowdrifts begin to melt but the air is so chilled that we are led, whimpering, into the coldest and most adverse summer since man learned how to write.

    After a couple of months of slow thawing the majority of the snow is gone, just in time for the early start of a winter so cold that, by comparison, 1684 is like mid-April and 1947 has a scattering of snow.

    I eagerly await the huge number of posts confirming total agreement, he concluded ironically.

    T.M

    I dont know whether this is armaggedon or just the spring forecast for the antartic :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

    here is my current monthly forecast:

    March 2006 forecast (publishing at 1200hrs on 1st march)

    GFS:

    i expect from this model the first week of the month to be a particularly a cold one. heavy snow will become a problem where the continuation of the colder weather that ended february continues. by the end of the 1st third of the month this model suggest a deep atlantic depression to cross us bringign heavy rain and strongs winds for a time. a mid month the weather will quiten down i suspect as a weak high pressure lies above the uk giving mainly dry weather (althoguh a shower cannot be ruled out) and also alot less windy than the week previous. i then expect a more mobile theme to take control stabalising the uk weather for some time. the scandinavian high is very strong at this point and may head for the uk later on in the second halve of the month but the jet is not in fabvour of this and keeps depressions in the atlantic ready to come in for a few stormy days.

    UKMO:

    from this model i suspect the cold spell to lasty alot longer than the gfs. it shows low pressure in the north sa and the azores high linking up with the greenland high to block any depressions that may like to head our way. if this pattern continues all month temperatures would remain low as northerly winds plough down the country but i suspect the block to be broken around mid month to allow something of a wet nature into the uk.

    ECM:

    very different to the UKmo and keeps the low to the south across germany and sends it east. unlike the other models (that send it north eats)this would allow low pressure to slice through a very weak block and introduce the uk to a very wet and windy theme for several weeks. once we become settled as the azores high tries to make an appearance. ( i have very little faith in this models predictions)

    overall:

    1st-12th:

    this will be a cold- very cold period with lots of heavy snow showers in the east and west. high accumulations can be expected in the west as north west winds prevail. a weak attempt from the atlantic brings widspread snow for a time as it crosses. this will introduce slightly midler air altough not mild but it will be warmer than of late and any snow should be confined to higher ground, althoguh the ukmo keeps oit colder.

    12th-19th:

    this will be a potentially very stormy period of the month. strong winds from the atlantic will melt any snow that is left and introduce a milder set of days. bands of heavy and persistant rain will sweep from north west to south east topping up resivoirs that may be empty. later on in the period the low presusre that cross us may begin to weaken and start to disipatate.

    20th:-26th:

    this week is looking interesting. there could be a re-building of the scandinavian high. i suspect it may try to reach the uk but i dont think it will. i think a weak high pressure will sit over the uk keeping the weather dry fine and bright and with very little isobars there will be very little wind.

    27th-31st:

    to end march i think the scandinaivan high will bring a last ditch effort of any colder weather before summer. i suspect the very strong presure may have several colder pools left and it will introduce north - north east winds so we couyld see snow but it is a very long way off yet.

    summary:

    cold to start with heavy snow before a slow transition into milder weather from the atlantic takes place. We then see a posisble drier end to the month as high pressure builds over us.

    C.E.T:

    6.3

    NOTABLE PERIODS:

    -begining of the monthas we see a north westerly blast

    - end of the month as a possible re-building of the scandinavian highbrings colder weather.

    hope you enjoyed

    SNOW-MAN2006

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
    A cold and wet March like 2001 says BBC Nottinghams Terry Scholey:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/weather/lo..._forecast.shtml

    Sounds 'orrid to me. But better get that rainfall now rather than later. Best have a crap March than a crap June anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshunt-Herts / Letchworth-Beds
  • Location: Cheshunt-Herts / Letchworth-Beds
    Well the Met Office's long range forecasts go for warm, warm, warm right up until June. Their winter forecast was spot on so hopefully, their spring one is too!

    (issued in Jan):

    Feb-Mar-Apr

    Mar-Apr-May

    Apr-May-Jun

    Up until June? Ahh Wimbledon, so I guess Rain will be on the cards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    March 2001 had a pretty inverse sunshine distribution to February 1998- a very dull dismal month in the SE, but very sunny over much of the north and west. Surprisingly sunshine was a little above normal in the Tyne & Wear/Durham area, mainly due to abundant sunshine in the first two weeks partially offset by a dull last week- it's not often that happens in an easterly month.

    Consequently it was rubbished by the media as a dull drab month.

    By the looks of that outlook by Trevor it looks like his prediction is for a dull wet month almost nationwide, as opposed to one with a regional bias, but I'm not sure about whether or not it will be accurate. It would be consistent with lows streaming in from the Atlantic at the end of this coming week, something that current projections don't really support.

    As for the MetO's forecast, I would be happy with a warm spring if it was to be sunny, but the assumption that warm means sunny, and cold means dull, doesn't always follow in spring, particularly the further from London you are. In all probability it will be a warm spring whatever happens though- the last relatively cool spring we had was 2001, and cold weather in March and April was offset by a fine warm May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (West)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Hot Summers
  • Location: Swansea (West)

    This Spring will be what you'd expect

    March: Well its cold with snow in some places at the moment, the month will see a warmer spell towards the middle of the month, and maybe a cold end, but little snow

    April: cool start with alot of rain in the north, drier in south, Easter will be pleasant and sunny, back to mild wet weather as Lows move into the UK from the SW later in the month.

    May: The first half will be simular to the end of April, pressure will build towards mid month with even some nighttime frosts, the month will end warmer both day and night as southerly winds take hold, but with a spanish plume moving up late on in May.

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  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Yeah the classic May Spanish plume - they always throw you off guard. Having had it cool/cold for over 6 months the first random hot day is most odd! Last year I remember it turning really hot & sticky (but cloudy) for one Friday only before cooling off again. Seemed a bit like a dream!

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    Yeah the classic May Spanish plume - they always throw you off guard. Having had it cool/cold for over 6 months the first random hot day is most odd! Last year I remember it turning really hot & sticky (but cloudy) for one Friday only before cooling off again. Seemed a bit like a dream!

    That was the 27th May 2005, quite a strange day of weather if I remember rightly. While the south baked at over 30°C in the north it was freezing, with areas further north than Durham struggling to reach 12°C. Of course the completely unbiased (ha) media had headlines up about how the entire UK was having a heatwave. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (West)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Hot Summers
  • Location: Swansea (West)
    That was the 27th May 2005, quite a strange day of weather if I remember rightly. While the south baked at over 30°C in the north it was freezing, with areas further north than Durham struggling to reach 12°C. Of course the completely unbiased (ha) media had headlines up about how the entire UK was having a heatwave. :lol:

    Was a hot day down here in the south 27°c (the warmest day in both May and June locally), the next day it was cooler at 15°c

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    In general terms, once this current cold spell ends early next week, I believe that most of the spring of 2006 will feature above-normal temperatures, although perhaps not by a great margin given the recent rise in normals being used. I think one of the key elements of the circulation will be development of high-latitude upper-level highs near northern Scandinavia and northwest Russia. This will create a situation where the flow pattern over the British Isles is often SE to S at upper levels, and where active Atlantic storms are directed more towards Iceland and then west of Svalbard (Spitsbergen). Although this flow pattern will not lock in for weeks at a time, it will be a constant re-appearing theme like the winter blocking high was. This will not be a continuation of the winter pattern in my perspective, because that blocking will rapidly break down and shift far to the west into northern Canada. This blocking will develop from a Bartlett type situation later in March.

    This prediction would imply some very nice spring weather for many areas and a rather dry pattern in general. However, with this set-up, you are bound to get some troughs that dig in from the west and drop to the southeast, leading to some short periods of wet and cool weather with winds that become more E to NE, then N to NW as these features develop and decay.

    In this pattern, you can expect some fairly strong warm spells in March and April, and summer heat at times in May.

    In numerical terms, I would expect each month to come in 0.5 to 1.0 degrees warmer than the established 1971-2000 CET average, which really means about 1.5-2.0 degrees warmer than longer-term averages. Rainfall will generally be near 70% of normal through the period. There are bound to be some isolated heavy rainfall events from thunderstorms by late April or May in a pattern like this. I would expect these to be concentrated on the Welsh mountains, northern Midlands and southern Pennines.

    Also in this kind of pattern, you could expect one or two outbreaks of much colder air when the blocking shifts further east. This will be the reason that the generally warm season does not break records, with a few days here and there that return to below normal values and bring snow to some areas in strong northerly outbreaks.

    I have not had time to look at specific periods to give any predictions of when these colder spells would occur (after the current one), but I observe that there has been a cold outbreak roughly every month since around 24 November, with a mean period of 32 days. If that kept up, the next one would come in the first few days of April. Before that cold spell, there could be another one in mid-March.

    So to sum up, the prevailing weather type warm and dry, some intervals that are cool and wet or cold and windy with local snow showers. Let's hope the warm/dry comes on the weekends, or at least your days off.

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