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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The April CET should be 9.6C, not 10.6C.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

march review/highlights:

GFS:

i expect from this model the first week of the month to be a particularly a cold one. heavy snow will become a problem where the continuation of the colder weather that ended february continues. by the end of the 1st third of the month this model suggest a deep atlantic depression to cross us bringign heavy rain and strongs winds for a time. a mid month the weather will quiten down i suspect as a weak high pressure lies above the uk giving mainly dry weather (althoguh a shower cannot be ruled out) and also alot less windy than the week previous. i then expect a more mobile theme to take control stabalising the uk weather for some time. the scandinavian high is very strong at this point and may head for the uk later on in the second halve of the month but the jet is not in fabvour of this and keeps depressions in the atlantic ready to come in for a few stormy days.

UKMO:

from this model i suspect the cold spell to lasty alot longer than the gfs. it shows low pressure in the north sa and the azores high linking up with the greenland high to block any depressions that may like to head our way. if this pattern continues all month temperatures would remain low as northerly winds plough down the country but i suspect the block to be broken around mid month to allow something of a wet nature into the uk.

ECM:

very different to the UKmo and keeps the low to the south across germany and sends it east. unlike the other models (that send it north eats)this would allow low pressure to slice through a very weak block and introduce the uk to a very wet and windy theme for several weeks. once we become settled as the azores high tries to make an appearance. l:

overall:

well i must admit that all models did get chunks right. they all suggested a very unsettled picture which came around mid month. the ukmo was corect in forecasting the cold that had brought us up into mid month. the gfs did hint at a strengthening scandinavian high which may develop next week into giving us a mild easterly. in all credit this was a good month for the models and they have forecast these events with some good accuracy. marches c.e.t ends up at around 4.8 so my prediction of 6.6 was incorrect. overall model winner is the ukmo for getting around 75% of the forecast period correct.

so now we have that out of the way time for my April Forecast:

GFS:

unsettled at first with winds from a mild south westerly direction and nature. bands of rain(heavy at times) will sweep there way commonly from west to east but at times from north to south. as we head toward the 5th day of the month there is increasing confidence that low pressure will move down from the north to introduce northerly winds. these wil be a common wind direction in the next few weeks. temperatures will be at there coldest on the 5th where snow is likely from time to time and then as the winds remain from the north but come from a slightly milder area snow will then become restricted for the highest ground. very unsettled at times will strong winds blowing about any snow on higher ground but making way for some trecherous driving conditions at times. as we then head towards mid month high pressure will move in from the atlantic (Azores) and make the weather alot more settled and quite warm with southerly winds. altough it will be warm i suspect many showers will get going as this sunshoine gets stronger. towards the latter part of the month the winds will switch direction to the north once again and possibly introduce a slightly cooler theme with wintry showers in the north at times.

UKMO:

in similar agreement with the gfs with the first halve of the month. the azores high and the sandinavian low will have battle over the controlment of britain and keep us in northerly winds again the cold spell starts in the first week of the month and a trough moves down the eastern side on the tuesday bringing upto 5cm of snow obvernight. i suspect though as we head through the month the atlantic dominant azores high to move over us and bring fairly settled weather but this will not happen until our little low pressure over scandinavia finally pulls away at mid month. i then expect drier weather to become established with high after high after high keeping it warm aswell as dry.

ECM:

again another good agreemnet model with the cold spell coming early in the month. but this model does suggest another severe cold period as we had towards the 10th as a big low moves down from the north once more to allo w another cold spell. but once this low has moved away i suspect a similar theme to the gfs and ukmo with fine and dry weather becoming established everywhere.

periods:

1st-3rd: a unsettled to very unsettled period with low pressure moving over us to go over scandinavia. so many days of rain can be expected

4th-12th: colder period with a low moving down from the north. this will produce snow at the start of the period but as we head towards the middle part of the p[eriod the winds remain from the north but from a warmer origin. this will then lead to snow on hills with rain down at lower levels but temperatures still below average for the time of year.

13th-24th: azores high moves across us after forcing a persistant low away. this will bring some sunshine but in the strong april sun some heavy showers. temperatures will be above average and feeling very pleasant indeed.

25th-30th: the period where low pressure may return. low pressure may move down from our north which could make it alot colder with snow but it could come from the atlantic leading to mild weather but either way we are looking at some very unsettled weather in this period which ever way the wind blows.

notabale periods:

- 1st halve of the month as northerly winds make it colder with some snow at first

- the end of the month as unsettled weather may once again become established

c.e.t: 8.0 celcius with the colder spell having a nock on effect to the milder spell

i hope you enjoyed this forecast

SNOW-MAN2006

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APRIL:-

as we all now know cold start up northern areas with milder conditions the further south you go but wind chill will be the main factor up to the 7/8th of april with odd non heavy snow fall to scotland as the sun has its way temp wise. B4 more unsettled conditions arive with a slightly milder feel. things will settle down around the 15/17th when i belive we will be in a milder less windy pattern 17th to 26th of april we will see a spell of very mild weather that will bring on the first of the thunderstorms at least a week b4 last years main start in may. south east will get its top-up of rain 27th/to the 30th unsettled conditions

MAY:-

unsettledstart with the odd wet day for the first week. turning milder towards the second week with some slightly above average temps possably up to 18/21c with the chance of the odd isolated thunderstorm.

3rd week we will see the start of the storm season with storms being reported in the midlands southwards with at least 2 tornado reports b4 the week is out.

end the month with unsettled but mild conditions windy at times with the odd thundery activity doted about

JUNE:-

first 2 weeks

some very active storms from the midlands up to yorkshire with above temps some non home grown storms further south :doh:

as this is my first ever atempt at a forcast we will see how it goes :D

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

My May, June and July forecasts are based upon teleconnection patterns over the past three months, there is a 50% confidence level in these forecasts.

May

Here is the raw data for May...

May week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

May week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

May week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

May week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

May week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO, with a easterly for the British Isles due to a ridge over Scandinavia and a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be average.

May week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

May week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO which will force a positive NAO and the Azores High ridging into north western Europe resulting in the mean wind direction being southerly, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

May week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO however the Azores High will retrogress westward enougth for a north westerly outburst due to a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be average and sunshine will be average.

CET - 11.8C - 0.5C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

Spring summary

Assuming that the March CET is 4.5C, which is 1.9C below average, the overall Spring CET will be 9C, which is 0.9C below average, i expect rainfall will be below average and sunshine to be above average and as a result this spring will be categorised as cool, sunny and dry. I am expecting also March to contrast strongly with April which i expect to be very mild. The main periods of note this spring will be the Spanish Plumes which i expect to occur during the second week of April when i expect temperatures to reach between 23C and 28C and the third week of May when i expect temperatures to reach 24C to 29C.

June

Here is the raw data for June...

June week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA

June week 4 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

June week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be pushed south due to a trough in the central Atlantic however the Jet Stream will rise northward due to a ridge over eastern Europe resulting in a positive NAO and the mean wind direction being south easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

June week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be forced over the top of the Greenland High and into Scandinavia resulting in a sustained northerly and a negative NAO with the mean wind direction being northerly, temperatures will be 1C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be below average.

June week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will be forced over the top of the Greenland High and into Scandinavia resulting in a sustained northerly and a negative NAO with the mean wind direction being northerly, temperatures will be 1C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be below average.

June week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

CET - 13.1C - 1C below average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - below average

July

Here is the raw data for July...

July week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

July week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

July week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

July week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA

July week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

July week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA however due to a positive AO, the Jet Stream will rise northward forcing a positive NAO due to the Azores High ridging northward and eastward resulting in the mean wind direction being southerly, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

July week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA however due to a positive AO, the Jet Stream will rise northward however the Jet Stream will spit resulting in a negative NAO with high pressure over or just to the north of the British Isles with the mean wind direction being easterly and temperatures around averge, with below average rainfall and above average sunshine.

July week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA however due to a positive AO, the Jet Stream will rise northward however the Jet Stream will spit resulting in a negative NAO with high pressure over or just to the north of the British Isles with the mean wind direction being easterly and temperatures around averge, with below average rainfall and above average sunshine.

CET - 18C - 1.5C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London

SB: a small quibble...I think that you have miscalculated your monthly anomalies for the CET. Take July: 2 weeks are average, 1 week is +1.0 and q week is +0.5. You seem to have added all the weekly anomlaies together but without then dividing by 4 to reach an average of those 4 weeks. Thus your July anomaly should read (rounded up to the nearest decimal place) +0.4.

Regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

april review:

1st-3rd: a unsettled to very unsettled period with low pressure moving over us to go over scandinavia. so many days of rain can be expected

4th-12th: colder period with a low moving down from the north. this will produce snow at the start of the period but as we head towards the middle part of the p[eriod the winds remain from the north but from a warmer origin. this will then lead to snow on hills with rain down at lower levels but temperatures still below average for the time of year.

13th-24th: azores high moves across us after forcing a persistant low away. this will bring some sunshine but in the strong april sun some heavy showers. temperatures will be above average and feeling very pleasant indeed.

25th-30th: the period where low pressure may return. low pressure may move down from our north which could make it alot colder with snow but it could come from the atlantic leading to mild weather but either way we are looking at some very unsettled weather in this period which ever way the wind blows.

c.e.t: 8.0 celcius with the colder spell having a nock on effect to the milder spell

overall: a good month in terms of forecasting. the first three weeks of the month saw a great variation from wet at the start, then cold with snow (5.5 inches in south east) then we have seen some lovely warm weather persist during the second half of the month. as for the c.e.t it looks like above average at above 8.9 celcius.

so for may :

GFS: keeps us in an unstable way of weather. one day it looks like some sunshine and temperatures well into there tweenty's with high pressure over us then the next we see low pressure. later on in the period the greenland high still looks at large over greenland(just to point out) which may cause some blocking for a heatwave by the end of the month. some strong southerly winds at time when low presure is forced out of the uk by high pressures but some gale force southerlies wil make it fell very warm indeed. going by the run c.e.t looks like 15 celcius vacinity is more likely.

UKMO: the general theme for this month is a massive scandinavian high to our east will keep southerly winds more likely with thunder showers likely at times. although i expect thids theme to be broken at times with wet day as low pressure attempts to move in from the west. in other words a battle of europe and the atlantic ( a general theme that we have seen late this winter and a possible trend emerging for next winter).

ECM: again the scandinavian high has been located to our east but no low pressure to our west but instead to our north with the azores high becoming more predominant. unsettled at times following the general theme from the other models with the azores high eventually forming a block instead of the greenland high.

periods-

1st-3rd: cool northwesterly winds as low pressure retreats to our north west keeping it cool and cloudy.

4th-10th: scandinavian high moving across bringing very warm to hot temps but in turn sparking off thundery showers. so a warm period but you may see some thunderstorms

11th-15th: low pressure during this period making way for some wet days although some sunny days with be in alternation. temperatures again warm but slightly cooler than previous days.

16th-25th: block is formed from the greenland or azores high keeping it dry and possibly hot with 25+ likely in the south and sunny days so time for the sun glasses

26th-30th: showery and thundery as we see temperatures slowly decrease back to mid teens and less sunshine so the clearly worst week of the month.

Estimated C.E.T: 12.5 is estimated

Hope you enjoyed

SNOW-MAN2006

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Acbrixton, they are cumulative figures, this method has allowed my predictions to be within 0.5C of the final figure for the past four months.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
May week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a southerly track due to a positive PNA and will be kept on a southerly track by a Greenland ridge forcing the Jet Stream south due to a negative AO, with a easterly for the British Isles due to a ridge over Scandinavia and a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be average.

May week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland due to a negative AO resulting in the the Greenland High beaurificating the Jet Stream however due to the Azores High ridging into Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northwards resulting in the mean wind direction being south westerly, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.

May week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO which will force a positive NAO and the Azores High ridging into north western Europe resulting in the mean wind direction being southerly, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.

May week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of the United States Of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a positive AO however the Azores High will retrogress westward enougth for a north westerly outburst due to a negative NAO, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be average and sunshine will be average.

CET - 11.8C - 0.5C above average

Rainfall - below average

Sunshine - above average

Spring summary

Assuming that the March CET is 4.5C, which is 1.9C below average, the overall Spring CET will be 9C, which is 0.9C below average, i expect rainfall will be below average and sunshine to be above average and as a result this spring will be categorised as cool, sunny and dry. I am expecting also March to contrast strongly with April which i expect to be very mild. The main periods of note this spring will be the Spanish Plumes which i expect to occur during the second week of April when i expect temperatures to reach between 23C and 28C and the third week of May when i expect temperatures to reach 24C to 29C.

Overall, i was quite pleased with my forecast for the first half of May considering that it was the same forecast which i used at the beggining of March, while i was wrong on the temperature side of things, i managed to pick out the weather patterns.

In relation to the Spring as a whole, i am pleased with My March forecast in which i predicted a CET of 5.4C when the final March CET was 5C, which is within my 0.5C margin of error. I was very wrong when it came to April though as i was expecting a very warm month similar to 1987 as i predicted a CET of 11.1C while the final figure was 8.5C, in relation to May, the final CET looks as though it may just lower to 12.3C, which would put it within my 0.5C margin of error, so overall i was quite pleased with my Spring forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

Well what a season spring 2006 has been?

March saw snow at the beginning of the month with blizzards in most places before the atlantic wept in and brought some very wet and winds days to most. as the month progressed the temperatures stayed low until the last week we saw temperatures reach average.

april i can remember very alternating days we saw one hell of a snow showrer mid-month when the temperature dropped from 10-4 celcius supporting snowfall in a very heavy snow shower. then the month got very sunny and plesantly warm

May has been very warm with sunny days but in contrast some dull days. snowfall has fallen to suprisingly low levels in scotland and i think i saw a report of some in east yorkshire. cold nights have plauged us with the mostly clear days.

so overall we couldnt have wished for a better spring

now we move onto summer and the warm weather seems to have begun... :whistling:

SNOW-MAN2006

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