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Nad Shut Down How Does It Work?


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I have been following the discussion on this forum since last November but this is my first post.

There has been a discussion regarding the possible shut down/disruption of the North Atlantic conveyor and the impact this would have on our climate. I understand that this would cause us to have colder winters more in line with our northern latitude. I would like to know exactly how this would effect our climate. If the prevailing wind direction in the northen hemisphere is from West to East then if the North Atlantic is a few degrees colder then would we not just experience colder Westerlies? still not cold enough to bring snow. We are told that our climate would resemble that of New Found Land, however the East Coast of North America has a large land mass (the North American Continent) to its West there for the prevailing wind there would have to travel over a cold land mass rather than an a warmer (in Winter) Ocean. Have I over simplified this or are there other factors (i.e a displacement of the jet stream to the South due to colder SST in the North Atlantic) that would cause a dramatic cooling in our neck of the woods? I don't doubt that a shut down of the NAD would cause a significant cooling of the climate of Western Europe, but would appreciate a more detailed explanation of how this would occur.

Thanks

CC

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

welcome to net weather friend

unfortunatlly i can`t answer that but i garantee some one on here will and get to you asap

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

To be honest I am not quite sure ,here is my best guess.Hopefully someone with more knowledge will come along to explain.

What we are talking about is changes in the THC (thermohaline ocean circulation), which is the movement of warm water north on the surface, before it sinks and returns south along the sea bottom. Typically the change would be for the sinking points to move further south with the net result that the sea in our area is colder by about 6C , perhaps freezing solid around scotland in the winter. With weather systems not travelling across warm water they are more likely to give snow. The boundary between cold and warm air also moves southwards which takes the Jetstream southwards so the UK is more often on the cold side of the jet. With the Jetstream further south then the Atlantic storm tracks are moved southwards, which allows more high pressure to our north and winds from the continent rather than from the atlantic. This would mean that it is conceivable that the UK would be something like 8C cooler.

Basically our weather is closely linked to sea surface temperatures, if they drop by 6C then our temperatures drop by that amount as well which would take us to average temperatures close to freezing during the winter. Models suggest that rapid change is possible where rapid may be 100 years, having said that some recent research suggests that the sinking points have moved or disappeared in recent years. Whether it will change due to global warming is debateable with arguments for and against, others suggest a cycle of about 1470 years where it switches back and forth based on solar activity.At the minute it is mostly theories ,but there are some worrying signs with recent changes.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
To be honest I am not quite sure ,here is my best guess.Hopefully someone with more knowledge will come along to explain.

What we are talking about is changes in the THC (thermohaline ocean circulation), which is the movement of warm water north on the surface, before it sinks and returns south along the sea bottom. Typically the change would be for the sinking points to move further south with the net result that the sea in our area is colder by about 6C , perhaps freezing solid around scotland in the winter. With weather systems not travelling across warm water they are more likely to give snow. The boundary between cold and warm air also moves southwards which takes the Jetstream southwards so the UK is more often on the cold side of the jet. With the Jetstream further south then the Atlantic storm tracks are moved southwards, which allows more high pressure to our north and winds from the continent rather than from the atlantic. This would mean that it is conceivable that the UK would be something like 8C cooler.

Basically our weather is closely linked to sea surface temperatures, if they drop by 6C then our temperatures drop by that amount as well which would take us to average temperatures close to freezing during the winter. Models suggest that rapid change is possible where rapid may be 100 years, having said that some recent research suggests that the sinking points have moved or disappeared in recent years. Whether it will change due to global warming is debateable with arguments for and against, others suggest a cycle of about 1470 years where it switches back and forth based on solar activity.At the minute it is mostly theories ,but there are some worrying signs with recent changes.

Do you have any links to that info? Or do you know where we are at the moment in that cycle?(theory) Thanks

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To be honest I am not quite sure ,here is my best guess.Hopefully someone with more knowledge will come along to explain.

What we are talking about is changes in the THC (thermohaline ocean circulation), which is the movement of warm water north on the surface, before it sinks and returns south along the sea bottom. Typically the change would be for the sinking points to move further south with the net result that the sea in our area is colder by about 6C , perhaps freezing solid around scotland in the winter. With weather systems not travelling across warm water they are more likely to give snow. The boundary between cold and warm air also moves southwards which takes the Jetstream southwards so the UK is more often on the cold side of the jet. With the Jetstream further south then the Atlantic storm tracks are moved southwards, which allows more high pressure to our north and winds from the continent rather than from the atlantic. This would mean that it is conceivable that the UK would be something like 8C cooler.

Basically our weather is closely linked to sea surface temperatures, if they drop by 6C then our temperatures drop by that amount as well which would take us to average temperatures close to freezing during the winter. Models suggest that rapid change is possible where rapid may be 100 years, having said that some recent research suggests that the sinking points have moved or disappeared in recent years. Whether it will change due to global warming is debateable with arguments for and against, others suggest a cycle of about 1470 years where it switches back and forth based on solar activity.At the minute it is mostly theories ,but there are some worrying signs with recent changes.

Thanks for the explanation and links, this has made things clearer

A 6C drop in the surface temperature of the seas around the British Isles, thats a bigger drop than i thought.

Thanks again

CC

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