March CET

[summer blizzard]

I have created this thread to discuss the CET for March.

I am pleased to say that while my combined CET estimate was wrong, my CET estimate based on teleconnection patterns was 3.7C, which is looking spot on.

My CET estimate based on sea surface temperatures is 2.3C, which is 4C below average.

My CET estimate based on teleconnection patterns is 5.3C, which is 1C below average.

My CET estimate based on anologues is 6.9C, which is 0.6C above average.

My CET estimate based on all of these factors is 4.8C, which is 1.5C below average.

[kold weather]

Hmmm....its a hard one to call because last March started out very cold only for it to be matched by a equally impressive mild spell.

Still I'll go for a March CET of about 6.3C at this stage.

[Optimus Prime]

Well so far my CET predictions have been alright but not that impressive;

December; 4.2c Actual; 4.4c

January; 2.6c Actual; 4.3c

February; 3.1c Actual;???? (probably 3.9c)

As for March, well past Marches have seen runaway warming beyond unprecedented levels. Here are the stats from 1990;

1990; 8.3c (2.0c above the recent average)

1991; 7.9c (1.6c above the recent average)

1992; 7.5c (1.2c above the recent average)

1993; 6.7c (0.4c above the recent average)

1994; 7.7c (1.4c above the recent average)

1995; 5.6c (0.7c below recent average)

1996; 4.5c (1.8c below recent average)

1997; 8.4c (2.1c above recent average)

1998; 7.9c (1.6c above recent average)

1999; 7.4c (1.1c above recent average)

2000; 7.6 (1.3c above recent average)

2001; 5.2c (1.1c below recent average)

2002; 7.6c (1.3c above recent average)

2003; 7.5c (1.2c aboverecent average)

2004; 6.6c (0.3c above recent average)

2005; 7.0c (0.7c above recent average)

The 1971-2000 average is 6.3c. But look how warm the 1990-2005 average is ...7.56c. That's 1.26c above the 1971-2000 average. March 2004 was considered cold by many, and you can see why!

In my view March this year will be remembered for frequent cold outbreaks with some snow mixed with warmer weather (although nothing too warm that I can see)

My CET predictions is for 5.1c. 1.2c below average. Coldest since 1996.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Like Kold, I think its going to be a tough call.

I'm going to go for a modest 5.9oC.

My reasoning?

Well. I expect March to follow similar fluctuations against average temps than Dec05 and Feb06. Both were/will be about 0.4oC below the 75-05 average.

The average of the last 30 years being 6.3-6.4oC, I'm taking this below average figure of the lowest parameter of the average.

[summer blizzard]

"There have been only 2 Marches with a CET >9, 1938 9.1; 1957 9.2"

Why did i get a eary feeling that we could repeat that this year as i read the above fact.

[Snowly does it]

I'm anticipating a long lasting cold snap, longer perhaps than currently projected and some very low minima. Given this, I expect some later month mild weather but under a stagnant HP with relatively low minima again.

CET prediction 4.8

[Guest Mike W]

I'l go for the same well above average, it's all we have got since 2002 anyway. CET 7.0.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

ooooooooh great another guess at the C.E.T

im going for a cold start, mild middle and average end so a C.E.T of 6.3

[Guest Mike W]

Actually it case it's higher than 7.0 i will say 9.8.

[Optimus Prime]

i will say 9.8.

That'll make it the warmest ever, and by some way!

Only March 1938 and 1957 have ever had a CET at 9.0c or higher. Both after quite a cool period of Marches.

[Bobby]

I'll go for 6.7c. I think it will reverse the cold trend of late and build up to a nice hot summer.

[PersianPaladin]

I'm going for 7C

[agowerguy83]

Well I'm going to go for 7.7°c, a 'warm spell' will possibly occur as the month closes.

[Guest Mike W]

Just to cement this: CET 7.0

[Dave J]

Here is a list of the last 10 March CETs:

1996 4.5C

1997 8.4C

1998 7.9C

1999 7.4C

2000 7.6C

2001 5.2C

2002 7.6C

2003 7.5C

2004 6.5C

2005 7.2C

I'll go for 6.6C which is 0.3C above the 1971-2000 average, because although there will be a very cold start, I feel that it will be more than balanced by very warm settled spells mid-month.

[Weather-history]

Actually it case it's higher than 7.0 i will say 9.8.

Thats incredibly brave of you, going off the latest model charts, you are struggling with that figure before we even going into the starting blocks.

[fordy]

Just for fun id say 6.5

[Richard Lake]

also just for fun 6.1

[Bottesford]

6.7- a little above average after a cold start. Mid month we'll get a warm spell I reckon.

[Great Plum]

I'm going for 6.5

[Nick F]

With the new month upon us, and winter still hanging on over the UK until the weekend at least and probably beyond into early next week, we could be getting of to a below average start CET wise. But the CET stats reveal that over the last ten years since March 1996, there has only been one month below the 1971-2000 CET average of 6.3°C, and that was March 2001, which had a CET of 5.2°C.

Here's a list of March CET's since March 1996, which itself had a rather chilly CET of 4.5°C, only 0.2°C warmer than Jan that year:

'96: 4.5°C

'97: 8.4°C

'98: 7.9°C

'99: 7.4°C

'00: 7.6°C

'01: 5.2°C

'02: 7.6°C

'03: 7.5°C

'04: 6.5°C

'05: 7.2°C

The last two Marches of '04 and '05 have been characrterised by cold starts with snow. Last March saw a min of -11.5°C in East Kent on the 4th the coldest there since 1970, but by mid-month it turned much milder making the month end with an above average CET. March 2004 saw a cold start with -12°C in Aberdeenshire and lying snow on the 2nd, though it didn't get warm until the end of the month. March 2001 the coldest since 1996 was dominated by Easterly winds, -21°C was recorded at Altnahara on the 3rd, there was lots of snow in the South on the 20th, and it wasn't until the end of the month that it really turned milder from the SW. March 1996 was another very Easterly month with snow in the East and was the coldest since March 1987.

So will March 2006 follow the same theme as last year by having a cold start and then warming up to bring an above average month - or will we see a well overdue colder than averge month CET wise. Place your predictions

[Weather-history]

Oops Nick

We've already got a thread on this

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=28137

[kold weather]

Very early to use the models to give a idea of what sort of CET we'll get but looking at the first 7 days it does look cold and we'll probably only average about 3.5C, though this strongly depends on cold overnight mins.

As for the rest of the month, intresting to see people thinking a warmer mid-month is likely. Logic would say this is likely but looking at the set-up, I'm really not at all sure, the jet simply doesn't look in the right place to give anything other then slightly above average past the 8th day.

The key thing is to avoid a Bartlett and we should with anyluck do that.

[Bottesford]

Very early to use the models to give a idea of what sort of CET we'll get but looking at the first 7 days it does look cold and we'll probably only average about 3.5C, though this strongly depends on cold overnight mins.

As for the rest of the month, intresting to see people thinking a warmer mid-month is likely. Logic would say this is likely but looking at the set-up, I'm really not at all sure, the jet simply doesn't look in the right place to give anything other then slightly above average past the 8th day.

The key thing is to avoid a Bartlett and we should with anyluck do that.

Why do we want to avoid a Bartlett? Yes I'm aware it can bring rubbish weather further north but from a purely selfish point of view, assuming its far enough north, it can bring me lots of warm Sunshine!

[kold weather]

I was saying that we'd want to avoid a Barteltt high set-up purely from the stand-point of wanting to avoid another March with a CET above 7C.

I'm sure the warmth can wait till the real summer months!

(and besides, if its 6.2C or below it will be, at least in technical terms, our 4th month below the 71-00 average in 5 months!)