March CET

[Joneseye]

I am going for 6.4.

I remember 97 as I was helping my dad build his house at the time and I had a sun tan by the end of the Easter Holidays!

[Bottesford]

I was saying that we'd want to avoid a Barteltt high set-up purely from the stand-point of wanting to avoid another March with a CET above 7C.

I'm sure the warmth can wait till the real summer months!

(and besides, if its 6.2C or below it will be, at least in technical terms, our 4th month below the 71-00 average in 5 months!)

Yeah ok fair nuff! I guess we've been 'spoilt' a bit. You get to March and almost expect it to be warm but it never used to be...

Hope these below average CET months stick to being November-March tho with May-August being above average :lol:

[North-Easterly Blast]

I would love us to see a colder March than recent years, as many years in the UK since the late 1980s have had a March CET above 7*C; there have only been five times in the last 18 years that this has not happened. Last year's March looked promising, starting off with cold northerlies and some snowfall, giving the coldest first half since 1996, but then mid-month it all went belly up as a Bartlett High developed and gave an exceptionally warm second half; the warmest since 1938 and so we still ended up with a 7*C+ March.

Before 1988 you could only expect around two 7+ Marches per decade, we had seven in the 1990s, and already four this decade.

[Dave J]

In 2001 I recorded a mean of +5.5C; March 2004 came close to being that cold and as you say last March started off very cold with frequent sub zero minima and barely above freezing maxima. Something we look to repeat this year albeit with slightly higher maxima, but I think we'll get a warm spell like last year mid-month- at least in the south anyway.

Even in the relatively cold March 2001 we still managed +17C, but only just on the last day of the month! :lol:

[The PIT]

I'll go for Average to 0.7C above average.

Edited March 1, 2006 by The PIT

[reef]

Im going for another >7°C CET March Im afraid. Cool Marches are a rarity these days and even if the first half is cool I have no doubt the second half will more than make up for it. My guess is around 7.3°C.

[tinybill]

might be daft much cooler than normal 4.0.,at first :lol:

[shuggee]

4.9ºC for me please!

[drfeelgood]

I'm betting March will be the coldest month of the "winter": 3.8C for me....just for fun B)

Edited March 2, 2006 by drfeelgood

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have opted for... 6.6C. A warm spell in the middle of the month should more than offset the cold first week, although I reckon colder weather in the last week of the month should prevent another >7C March.

[SP1986]

7.1°C - quickly turning mobile, with intervening euro highs, and long fetch low pressure systems.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I hope this works, but this is how things stand at the moment:

Button 04 - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThuderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Rikki - 6.1

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

If i've missed anyone out, please let me know and i'll add you on here

Edited March 2, 2006 by SnowmanReturns

[Masters]

If it is not too late, I will have a stab at: 5.9C

yours,

Simon

Edited March 2, 2006 by Masters

[Evo]

6.2 for me. An up and down month I reckon with a bit of everything.

[Weather-history]

CET: (Mar 1- 2): 0.1°C (-5.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 2): 1.1mm ( 43 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 2): 14.3hr (238 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[Roger J Smith]

6.5 degrees sounds about right. That seems to imply a fairly mild month once you get this arctic air mass off the premises. As Mr Data points out, anyone going for a mild month will have to overcome a monthly -1.0 anomaly implied by a prediction of normal weather from Sunday onward. I think the rest of the month will be a little milder than normal about two thirds of the time, and quite cold a few days here and there. It all averages out to 6.5. Whether you want to call that cool, near normal or mild, up to you. It's damned cold today.

[Anti-Mild]

Whilst my record at guessing CET's is less than stellar I'll have a stab at March ending just below average at 6.0c

[Great Plum]

CET: (Mar 1- 2): 0.1°C (-5.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 2): 1.1mm ( 43 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 2): 14.3hr (238 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Is this one of the coldest starts for March ever?

[Weather-history]

Is this one of the coldest starts for March ever?

I suspect there have been colder ones, but certainly a very cold start

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Looking at the Net-Weather Temp Tracker, the CET is recording -6.5 CET below average.

Absolute mad start to the month.

[Optimus Prime]

I think March s 2005 started around 4c below average. But quickly started to rise after the first 3 or 4 days. We're around 6.6c below the 1971-2000 average and 6.0c below the 1961-1990 average.

The CET is likely to start rising by around the 6th. It won't take a lot of above average day and nights to rise to near average levels. I would say around 4 days of daytime temperatures around 13c and night time temperatures around 6c so we need colder conditions to return quickly if we are to keep the CET below average.

Tonight looks to be the coldest night so far this cold spell. Or at least for Southern England with temperatures dropping to around -6c.

[Stratos Ferric]

Anything around 6C or lower is looking like a decent punt. Assuming we have five cold days / nights (the latter particularly) then we'll already be around 30C cumulatively below par by the 5th (that's 1C weigted across the month). Recent trend for March suggests about a par of 6.5C, so net of a cold start - and assuming this doesn't get dramatically corrected by unusual warmth later - I would punt for something in the window 5.5C-6C: say 5.8C.

[SteveB]

I think I shall have a go at this.

Well we have started of cold, and as this winter has seen a slight bucking of an overall warming trend I think we shall se a March close or if not slightly below the March average.

6.1c

[kold weather]

The thing that is intresting me on the models is apart from 1-2 days of milder stuff during the breakdown really there is nothing on the models that screams prolonged mild to me with HP cells just lurking to the east and north of us waiting for the atlantic to calm down a little and if it does it really wouldn't take much to get us back into a cold set-up again later in march.

Still, a long way to go yet till we reach the end of the month but a good start to get us on our way to another below average month on the 71-00 index.

[Stratos Ferric]

The thing that is intresting me on the models is apart from 1-2 days of milder stuff during the breakdown really there is nothing on the models that screams prolonged mild to me with HP cells just lurking to the east and north of us waiting for the atlantic to calm down a little and if it does it really wouldn't take much to get us back into a cold set-up again later in march.

Still, a long way to go yet till we reach the end of the month but a good start to get us on our way to another below average month on the 71-00 index.

I agree: the weather can run in long cycles and there's a chance we're stuck in something a bit cooler on average than the recent norm for a few weeks yet. Certainly, if the winter's pattern of not producing any notable warmth continues then something below par is a fair bet. Of course, by late March, the sun is above half way, and we can get real warmth.