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March CET


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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

We haven't had any real widespread mildness since early November. Maximum temperatures here from Late November-March have been around 11c. I don't ever remember a period that long without achieving at least 14c. Any mildness we have had has been shortlived which is reflected by the southwest CET in being consistently below average since November while England has been consistently slightly below/slightly above.

We won't see double figures for South east England until at least the 8th. How long the milder spell lasts for is anyone's guess but I can't see it hanging around for too long.

This could be a start of a cooling trend. Or this could be mild 1996 style blip.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
We haven't had any real widespread mildness since early November. Maximum temperatures here from Late November-March have been around 11c. I don't ever remember a period that long without achieving at least 14c. Any mildness we have had has been shortlived which is reflected by the southwest CET in being consistently below average since November while England has been consistently slightly below/slightly above.

We won't see double figures for South east England until at least the 8th. How long the milder spell lasts for is anyone's guess but I can't see it hanging around for too long.

This could be a start of a cooling trend. Or this could be mild 1996 style blip.

Whether a data point is a tipping point or a blip doesn't become clear until several points downstream. What is moderately interesting is that this is the third cold spell in late Feb - early March in four winters. Of itself not remarkable, but worth keeping an eye on and remembering next year.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Of itself not remarkable, but worth keeping an eye on and remembering next year.

I also find that interesting. Except this time around Scotland has had record snowfall at lower levels for March. Aberdeen recorded 26cm of snow, that's a massive 10 inches! Beating all the March snowy spells since 1957 when records began! In Scotland with temperatures dropping to -17c it was colder there then in Moscow and Oslo!

It's only a matter of time IMO until we get a severe winter. While the climate is warming up, it isn't warming up that much!

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So with this cold spell coming to an end, surely it's now curtains on winter 2005/2006. There's not going to be anything major form now on.

It's been a cracking winter here though.

Really looking forward to a nice warm March now, and a warm spring in general. Would like a hot summer too, which I think is likely. Hot, dry summers often follow cold winters it seems.

Edited by Magpie
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Whether a data point is a tipping point or a blip doesn't become clear until several points downstream. What is moderately interesting is that this is the third cold spell in late Feb - early March in four winters.

Its actually 4th time out of the last 6 years: 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006

Its a bit like the Christmas/New Year cold spell that has become a notable reoccurring event: 1993, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2005 with 1994, 2003 and 2004 having short lived wintry blasts over the festive period

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

;) CET: (Mar 1- 3): -0.3°C (-5.6 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 3): 1.5mm ( 21 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 3): 19.7hr (219 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

This was from February

CET: (Feb 1- 2): -0.9°C (-4.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1- 2): 0.02mm (0.4 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1- 2): 0.04hr (0.9 per cent)

Question for Phil when was the last time two consecutive months had a CET that was sub-zero after the first couple of days?

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Posted
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
  • Location: Whipsnade, Beds
;) CET: (Mar 1- 3): -0.3°C (-5.6 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 3): 1.5mm ( 21 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 3): 19.7hr (219 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

This was from February

CET: (Feb 1- 2): -0.9°C (-4.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1- 2): 0.02mm (0.4 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1- 2): 0.04hr (0.9 per cent)

Question for Phil when was the last time two consecutive months had a CET that was sub-zero after the first couple of days?

Well, after 3 days, it is the entirely unexpected months of December 1973 and January 1974, both of which warmed up rapidly thereafter. There appear to have been several instances in the 60s and early 70s. But nothing since then unless I missed it.

Philip

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Well, after 3 days, it is the entirely unexpected months of December 1973 and January 1974, both of which warmed up rapidly thereafter. There appear to have been several instances in the 60s and early 70s. But nothing since then unless I missed it.

Philip

Thanks Phil

I knew late November-early December 1973 was particularly cold but I am really surprised by early January 1974. That is a real surprise, I would have never have gone for those two months.

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

May I have a go? Based on non-scientific methods I think the CET for the month of March will be 6.2 degrees. :unsure:

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

It's a hell of a lot colder then even March last year at the current time;

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200603.htm

Metcheck currently have the CET at -0.4c which is 6.7c below average

Net-weather temperature tracker is at -0.25 which is 6.55c below average

The weather outlook has it at -0.7c which is 7.0c below average

So all of the major unofficial CETs are exceptionally below average.

I can also see it rising exceptionally fast next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Various!
  • Location: Various!
Hi - new on here. Is it 2 late to have a crack at this? If not I estimate the March CET will be 7.7C. Cold beginning, warm end.

Looking at the latest model outputs this is possible. You and Button have the highest figure so most people are pretty conservative on their estimates. It will take a big Atlantic shift to lift temperatures though, and as Stratos Ferric said previously these things often go in fairly long cycles. Not always though, and March 2005 was a classic of two halves.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

A late Feb / early March cold spell for the fourth time in six years, what cold spell!

The weather in the last week or so of February this year was hardly what I would call cold - many days had maxima around 5*C and night minima were often above freezing, so only slightly below the late Feb average, and by no means a true late Feb cold spell like 2004 and 2005. This year we just have an early March cold spell, it has only been since March 1st that the weather has been COLD. Late Feb 2006 wasn't COLD, it was only just below average.

True, we did have late Feb / early March cold spells in 2001, 2004 and 2005, but 2006 is just an early March cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
A late Feb / early March cold spell for the fourth time in six years, what cold spell!

The weather in the last week or so of February this year was hardly what I would call cold - many days had maxima around 5*C and night minima were often above freezing, so only slightly below the late Feb average, and by no means a true late Feb cold spell like 2004 and 2005.

The last week of February 2006 was 1.1 below the 1971-2000 norm for Phil Eden's stations :unsure:

The last 4 days of Feb 2005 had maxima of 4 or 5C for Manchester and with 3 nights above freezing.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

To be pedantic, the really cold weather set in on the 28th February, so one could still argue that it was a late Feb/early March cold spell by that measure.

Anyway, the most significant thing is that March is exceptionally below average. Interestingly, in Cleadon, my personal weather archive indicates that the first four days of March 2001 were colder there (including the lowest minimum I have ever recorded, -9.6C), but this may not have been the case across most of the rest of England.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 8.9

Catchmydrift - 7.6 8.8

Reef - 7.3 8.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 8.2

Mike W - 7.0 8.1

PersianPaladin - 7.0 8.1

Bottesford - 6.7 7.7

Magpie - 6.7 7.7

Dave J - 6.6 7.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 7.6

Fordy - 6.5 7.5

Great Plum - 6.5 7.5

Joneseye - 6.4 7.4

Kold Weather - 6.3 7.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 7.3

The Pit - 6.3 7.3

Rikki - 6.1 7.1

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 6.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 5.9

Shuggee - 4.9 5.7

Snowmaiden - 4.8 5.6

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 5.6

Tinybill - 4.0 4.6

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.4

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

well the outlook isnt really that much of a mild one possibly above average temps for 2 days and then back to average or slightly below

for around 5 days.. So i would expect by March 15th for the CET to still be at least -2.25c below average ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is -0.4C, which is 6.8C below average.

I do not think anybody has said anything about this yet but after four days, we already have 28 hours of sunshine, which is over 25% of the monthly average, as long as we do not get anticyclonic gloom for a week, i would say that there is a good chance of March 2006 being one of the sunniest on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Although the coming week looks like bringing in milder weather compared to of late, it doesnt look like having a major impact on the CET. Of course, movement towards the average, but i'd be surprised to see the CET rise to 'the' average by the end of next week.

Anyway, the March CET forecasts so far:

Button 04 - 7.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Evo - 6.2

Noggin - 6.2

Rikki - 6.1

SteveB - 6.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0

Masters - 5.9

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Stratos Ferric - 5.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

Hi Masters.

Mr D didnt actually miss you out, I just hadnt put yours in by the time he had done the breakdown. My Fault.

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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
Although the coming week looks like bringing in milder weather compared to of late, it doesnt look like having a major impact on the CET. Of course, movement towards the average, but i'd be surprised to see the CET rise to 'the' average by the end of next week.

Anyway, the March CET forecasts so far:

Button 04 - 7.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThuderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Evo - 6.2

Noggin - 6.2

Rikki - 6.1

SteveB - 6.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0

Masters - 5.9

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Stratos Ferric - 5.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

Hi Masters.

Mr D didnt actually miss you out, I just hadnt put yours in by the time he had done the breakdown. My Fault.

lol currently my mean for the first 5 days in to March is runing at -0.07c, -6 below the CET average. ;)

OK here is my prediction for March, i will go for 5.5c

Paul

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