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March CET


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Posted
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl

4.3 for me

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England

A day or so ago I would have said yes, however it's looking like a cold first week, a milder mid-second week

then cold again from then on.

My estimate for the CET would be around +5.5c, thus well-below average for March.

Edited by Thundersquall
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The current CET according to Phillip Eden is 0.2C, which is 6.2C below average and a 0.6C rise since yesterday.

More interestingly is the fact that sunshine amounts increased by another eight hours meaning that after five days, we have around 30% of the total monthly average sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 7.7 9.7

Westerly Gales 7.7 9.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6 9.6

Reef - 7.3 9.2

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 8.9

Mike W - 7.0 8.8

PersianPaladin - 7.0 8.8

Bottesford - 6.7 8.4

Magpie - 6.7 8.4

Peter Tattum - 6.7 8.4

Dave J - 6.6 8.3

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 8.3

Fordy - 6.5 8.1

Great Plum - 6.5 8.1

Roger J Smith - 6.5 8.1

Joneseye - 6.4 8.0

Kold Weather - 6.3 7.9

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 7.9

The Pit - 6.3 7.9

Evo - 6.2 7.7

Noggin - 6.2 7.7

Rikki - 6.1 7.6

SteveB - 6.1 7.6

Anti-Mild - 6.0 7.5

Masters - 5.9 7.4

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 7.4

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 7.3

Optimus Prime - 5.1 6.3

Shuggee - 4.9 6.1

Snowmaiden - 4.8 5.9

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 5.9

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.7

Tinybill - 4.0 4.9

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.6

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Thanks for the above Mr D :(

Button 04 - 7.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Mark - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Evo - 6.2

Noggin - 6.2

Rikki - 6.1

SteveB - 6.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Stratos Ferric - 5.8

Paul Carfoot - 5.5

Thundersquall - 5.5

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6

Snooz - 4.3

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

A few extra editions

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Still massive disagreements as to where the weather set-up is going after this weekend, some go for a mild Barteltt option, where the CEt would more then likely go above average and stay that way.

Then you could have the more proper zonal flow with tmeps slightly above average and probably steadily climbing to slightly above overall, however looking at the ensembles they are sort of ruling this set-up out a little.

Or as is increasingly being backed now, a return to more colder condtions as indicated by 06z GFs and 0z GEM. If this is the case then a CEt about 1C below average is more then probable.

Still to early to tell what will happen but there is a shot at the coldest March for 10 years...possibly!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 0.9C, which is 5.5C below average.

Based on the trends according to the ensembles, i think that the final CET will be around 5.4C, which is 1C below average.

The current sunshine amounts are at around 45 hours, which is around 40% of the monthly average of sunshine, i would say that the sunniest November to March period on record is a dead cert.

Mr Data, which March was the sunniest on record and how much sunshine did it have??

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'm not Mr Data, but the sunniest March on record over England and Wales was in 1929 with about 177 hours. However, March 1907 was probably sunnier.

Other recent sunny Marches included 1933, 1995 and 2003, with 150-170 hours each.

I can't remember which Marches were sunniest over Scotland and N Ireland, but I remember seeing that 1995 was only slightly above average sunshine wise in those countries, while 1929 and 2003 were very sunny, and 1955 and 1970 also stick out.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Wow, i did not expect 180 hours of sunshine to be possible in March, i would say that we can easily reach 150 hours of sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Well this mornings ensembles would give an amazing CET for March. Still -2.9oC, and projections rarely going above average, this is setting up to be a cold March (although, as usual, things are likely to change).

Well this mornings ensembles would give an amazing CET for March. Still -2.9oC, and projections rarely going above average, this is setting up to be a cold March (although, as usual, things are likely to change).

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Indeed if the GFS was to come off like this morning shows I'd have thought we'd be looking for sure at the coldest march since 1996 and would probably be in the 4C sort of range I'd have thought.

Anyway for now CET is rising rapidly but thats not really suprising given temps like they were yesterday!

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

True KW. Today will also have a big impact on the CET, as well as Friday nudging it up some more. The weekend shows some potential for it to stabilise as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Wow, i did not expect 180 hours of sunshine to be possible in March, i would say that we can easily reach 150 hours of sunshine.

One of quirks of the British weather, is that March 1990 was sunnier than June 1990 for England and Wales, it also happened in 1948.

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 9.8

Westerly Gales - 7.7 9.8

Catchmydrift - 7.6 9.7

Reef - 7.3 9.2

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 9.0

Mike W - 7.0 8.8

PersianPaladin - 7.0 8.8

Bottesford - 6.7 8.4

Magpie - 6.7 8.4

Peter Tattum - 6.7 8.4

Dave J - 6.6 8.3

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 8.3

Fordy - 6.5 8.2

Great Plum - 6.5 8.2

Roger J Smith - 6.5 8.2

Joneseye - 6.4 8.0

Kold Weather - 6.3 7.9

Mark - 6.3 7.9

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 7.9

The Pit - 6.3 7.9

Evo - 6.2 7.8

Noggin - 6.2 7.8

Rikki - 6.1 7.6

SteveB - 6.1 7.6

Anti-Mild - 6.0 7.5

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 7.4

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 7.2

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 6.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 6.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 6.3

Shuggee - 4.9 6.0

Snowmaiden - 4.8 5.9

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 5.9

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.6

Snooz - 4.3 5.2

Tinybill - 4.0 4.8

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.5

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I do not think that another above average March 2006 CET is out of the woods yet. The CET is rising rapidly, and we will be probably looking at the first half of March 2006 having a CET similar to the first half of March last year. Many people thought last March was going to be below average and it did look promising earlier in the month, but a prolonged exceptionally warm spell kicked in mid-month and persisted making March 2005 another 7+ March, so we still yet need to see a different pattern from last year and many other recent Marches to make this month be below average and even for it not to turn into another 7*C+ March.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 1.7C, which is 4.7C below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The difference is North-easterly, this time instead of prolonged mild, we are seeing the chance of prolonged below average temps coming back in again.

after tommorow the weekend looks like having below average temps, infact sunday presently looks very cold for the east:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7217.png

I'd be suprised if we didn't end up with a below average CET overall.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

March CET 1st-9th is now 2.5*C, rising fast. Yes, this weekend looks quite chilly for many parts with less cold weather returning by Monday. Beyond that looks very uncertain, but the point I will make is that many people thought last March was going to be below average, indeed the CET was only 3.6*C up to the 14th, but prolonged exceptional warmth then kicked in for the rest of the month with maxima often well into the teens and the month overall ended up at least a full degree above average at 7.2*C.

This month would still require northern blocking for much of the next three weeks and a lack of really mild weather similar to March 2001 to get this month below average. If this month is below average it will buck a trend that has persisted in many years in the UK since 1988 of warm Marches. The last time we had a fairly cold March was in 2001, and before that 1996.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The thing is though North-easterly, thats exactly what the models are currently showing, winds either from the east or north which are still easily cold enough for elow average tmeps, esp if you can pick up a north-easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There have been a few quirky statistics with March sunshine in recent years on a local level:

In 1995, for parts of eastern England, March was sunnier than June.

In 1997, March was sunnier than April and June for much of NE England.

In 2000, March was sunnier than July in parts of eastern England.

In 2001, for parts of Scotland, March was sunnier than both June and July.

In 2002, some parts of Scotland had March sunnier than all three of the summer months.

In 2003, March came out sunnier than April, May, June and July in parts of N and W Scotland.

I don't remember coming across any local instances of March being the sunniest month of the year, although it might have been achieved locally in 2003. The closest I can find in recent years is 2002 when for many places April was the sunniest month of that year.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Despite this warm period the CET remains exceptionally below average;

Climate-uk has it at 2.5c which is 3.8c below average

Metcheck have the CET at 2.8c which is 3.5c below average

Net-weather temperature tracker has it at 3.0c which is 3.3c below average

The weather outlook has it at 2.09c which is 4.21c below average

OPT has it at 3.5c which is 2.8c below the national average

So despite several days now of temperatures well above average it hasn't made a huge mark on the averages. It would take a fair while of very mild temperatures to bring the CET even near average. If anything, by the 15th the CET is likely to drop below what they're at now or at the very least stay the same.

So half way through the month and we're still at least 3.0c below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like this will be the last day of above average temps for a short while and even then, temps really aren't that above average today, maybe by 0.5-1C

The weekend, Monday and also prehaps Tuesday all look below, with Sunday and Monday all looking very below average, enough so to probably actually lower the CET again by a short bit.

As for the 7C CET, while you stil cant rule that out, looking at the models thats looking less and less likely with northern blocking re-showing itslef again.

At the moment, I'd have thought we have a huge chance at March having a CET below 5C and thus being the coldest March since 1996.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Today should be the end of the rapid increase of temps at least for a little while I'd have thought Mike.

Infact, if anything this weekend could see it drop a little again, esp Sunday with maxes as low as this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs514.gif

After that and the genereal trend seems to be to gain a easterly in the second half of next week which while not cold, it will still give below average temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I sense my CET prediction for March might be a tad on the high side? :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, it's looking like it- the CET looks likely to end up around 2.5-3C by midmonth, by which time it would require an average CET of about 10C to get the monthly mean up to 6.6-6.7C!

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