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March CET


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Guest Mike W

2.5 by mid-month, it's already 2.5 now! As for an average of 10, well according to the 5-day forecast for my area, Bristol, we are going to get an average of 10 very soon, with highs of 12 and lows of 9 starting on Sunday all the way to Tuesday and beyond, so where is all this below average certainty coming from?

Edited by Mike W
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well I'm going to court controversy :D and go for a March CET of around 2c, and with a bit of luck perhaps lower.

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Guest Mike W

With raging south-westerly to westerly winds, I doubt we will see anything lower than a 6.* CET if we are lucky to get it that low. check the 5-day forecast for Bristol as an example.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
I sense my CET prediction for March might be a tad on the high side? :D

Mine too, but I guess we will have more of an idea of how it will go after what happens this weekend....

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hello Mike, where are you getting this from???

BBC are WAY over the top in terms of how mild they are expecting it over this weekend, just had a look and they are expecting maxes in the south-east of 10C...under cloud and under cold air at the surface, I think you can safly knock at least 5-6C off that!

this is much more likely temp wise:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs514.gif

The only day that does get as mild as they are expecting is Wednesday but they are definatly over-doing the temps I suspect, as per normal 3-5 days out.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1234.gif

I've just done a calculation based on GFS model maxes and mins and came out with a CEt mid-month bang inbetween TWS target, at 2.7C!!!

i'll do the entire run soon.

But put it this way, we'll have to go some from then on to reach 6C!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
With raging south-westerly to westerly winds, I doubt we will see anything lower than a 6.* CET if we are lucky to get it that low. check the 5-day forecast for Bristol as an example.

Remember that the CET is recorded in central england. This means it is more likely to be nearer to the battleground of mild and cold air this weekend than the west countryis.

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Guest Mike W

I believe Bristol or a site nearby is used as part of the CET. I think what they do is they take one site in the West Country another in the South East, and another 1 in the north as a sort of triangle and get the CET that way. Not 100% certain, but I do know their is a CET site in the South West.

Edited by Mike W
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Nick, stunningly according to the 12z run, your estimate actually isn't amazingly far off for the period of 1st-26th of March, which has came out at......

3.09c!!!!!!!!

Of course the GFS is probably under-doing the CEt and you'd expect it to be a good 1-1.5C higher then what it currently estimates, however even if thats the case you'll still be looking at a very cold March on par with anything that the mid-80's could throw at us

(ps, Mike, rmemebe rthe beeb will always over-do the temps at least in that format and I think those temps will be slowly adjusted downards, though Tuesday may well be as warm as they are showing during the day, I highly doubt we'll have mins at 8C!

I'll just say, that if the CET reaches 6C I'll be very suprised, still it could happen i suppose, though its abit of a long shot.

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Guest Mike W

I don't think it will be difficult to get the CET up to 6, considering our record of March's getting a CET of 7.*, it's happend 6 times in the last 9 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

However Mike, not one of those March's have actually had whats showing on the models, like:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif

So if we do have a CET between 2.5-3C by mid-month, can you really see the set-up being shown on those models to raise the CET upto 6C?

I agree, last year was a good example of what your saying and we've been here before just last year, but the difference is this year, instead of a prolonged mild spell, we are probably looking at the opposite.

Still a little early I suppose to rule out 6C though, so i'm not just yet but I think it'll be a hard slog to reach that figure now.

(ps, good debate this!)

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Guest Mike W

Surely on the back of recent years, the form sheet sugeest a 6 or a 7 CET, i.e more of same the time to say something else would be around the 4th week or if we are in massively good set up the 3rd week. No offence meant but if we are lucky we might get 3 average 61-90 months this year instead of the 1 or 2 that we usualy get, worsdt case we might get 0 average 61-90 months on top of the 5th year in a row to have 10.** as an annual CET, which I wouldn't bet against happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Your quite right Mike, the form March's over the past 15 years would suggest that we should have a CET above 7C, and I agree its not yet time to say its not possible, but it'll be hard to do from now on.

Then again, its not been often that we can say we've been at the 10th with a CET at 2.8C AND also with the prospect of more cold weather to come this month. Usually even if we have a low CET the last 2 weeks turn very mild, just like last year, but this March simply doesn't look like being that kind of March.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

I think the warm spells will hold off till mid spring. We seem to be locked into a northern blocked, cold pattern. It is good to see 'normal' early spring weather returning but soem warmth would make myself & many others feel a lot nicer! Winter's been dragging on a looooonnnngg time now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England
I think the warm spells will hold off till mid spring. We seem to be locked into a northern blocked, cold pattern. It is good to see 'normal' early spring weather returning but soem warmth would make myself & many others feel a lot nicer! Winter's been dragging on a looooonnnngg time now.

I'm beggining to feel if only this "northern blocked, cold pattern" happened in January and February.

Now it's getting well on into March we are all worrying about the increased strength of the Sun

potentially spoiling the party!

Edited by Thundersquall
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
I don't think it will be difficult to get the CET up to 6, considering our record of March's getting a CET of 7.*, it's happend 6 times in the last 9 years.

I think you'll find 9 years of mild Marches doesn't have any preservable influence on the Marches that follow. 9 years is such a short space of time it's not even worth taking into account. yes, if it was 50 or 60 years of continual exceptionally warm Marches it may have a slight influence on the next March and even that's open to criticism.

It will take an incredible and sustained warm spell to pop it up to average. If by mid-month the CET is around the 3c mark it would need to double what we've had, cancel out the very cold first half and go against the grain because it gets harder and harder for the CET to rise when it's at a very low level the further we go into the month.

A cold spell of some sort looks very likely after the snow potential over the weekend. After a slightly milder interlude the cold weather will return.

March 1996 had a CET of 4.5c That's 1.8c below average. I would say it will be touch and go whether we end up lower then that. If we get at least 5 days of cold/very cold 24 hour means it would be near impossible to get an average March. Unless we get a record breaking heatwave.

Put into context the first 7 days had a CET according to my data (that generally over does the temperature) the first 7 days had an average of 0.9c. Saying for the next 2 weeks had a CET of 6.0c (average) that would mean the CET would stand at 4.5c by the 21st. IF the last 7 days had a CET average that of July (16.5) it would end up at only at 7.5c.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Can't say I'm worry about the strength of the Sun ruining the party! I'm willing it to get stronger now! Although a big fat snow fest at the weekend would suit quite nicely. Be a bonus leaving the warehouse party I'm going to on Sat night and get to play snowball fights on the way home!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Mike, you can see the actual models they base those forecasts on...What the models are showing is a kind of northern blocking, or the scandi high usually:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1441.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...t!chart.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Also worth seeing that theres not a single Azores high in sight on those charts, actually theres a Azores Low, the opposite!, The SW wind your talking about actulaly come from a Russian high:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

Which eventually throws another high across Scandinavia as you can see on the 144hrs charts above.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A bit of trivia, the last time we had a March CET less than 4C was 1970, which had a CET of 3.7C, which is 2.7C below average, the next coldest March was 1987, which had a CET of 4.1C, which is 2.3C below average and the next coldest is 1996, which had a CET of 4.5C, which is 1.9C below average.

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Guest Mike W

How come the TWO forecast is for it to be warm next week then, along with the BBC and the Met Office?

Edited by Mike W
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 10.0

Westerly Gales - 7.7 10.0

Catchmydrift - 7.6 9.9

Reef - 7.3 9.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 9.1

Mike W - 7.0 9.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0 9.0

Bottesford - 6.7 8.6

Magpie - 6.7 8.6

Peter Tattum - 6.7 8.6

Dave J - 6.6 8.4

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 8.4

Fordy - 6.5 8.3

Great Plum - 6.5 8.3

Roger J Smith - 6.5 8.3

Joneseye - 6.4 8.1

Kold Weather - 6.3 8.0

Mark - 6.3 8.0

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 8.0

The Pit - 6.3 8.0

Evo - 6.2 7.8

Noggin - 6.2 7.8

Rikki - 6.1 7.7

SteveB - 6.1 7.7

Anti-Mild - 6.0 7.5

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 7.4

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 7.2

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 6.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 6.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 6.2

Shuggee - 4.9 5.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8 5.9

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 5.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.4

Snooz - 4.3 5.0

Tinybill - 4.0 4.6

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.3

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 10.0

Westerly Gales - 7.7 10.0

Catchmydrift - 7.6 9.9

Reef - 7.3 9.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 9.1

Mike W - 7.0 9.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0 9.0

Bottesford - 6.7 8.6

Magpie - 6.7 8.6

Peter Tattum - 6.7 8.6

Dave J - 6.6 8.4

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 8.4

Fordy - 6.5 8.3

Great Plum - 6.5 8.3

Roger J Smith - 6.5 8.3

Joneseye - 6.4 8.1

Kold Weather - 6.3 8.0

Mark - 6.3 8.0

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 8.0

The Pit - 6.3 8.0

Evo - 6.2 7.8

Noggin - 6.2 7.8

Rikki - 6.1 7.7

SteveB - 6.1 7.7

Anti-Mild - 6.0 7.5

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 7.4

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 7.2

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 6.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 6.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 6.2

Shuggee - 4.9 5.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8 5.9

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 5.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.4

Snooz - 4.3 5.0

Tinybill - 4.0 4.6

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.3

Pretty Confident.

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Guest Mike W

How come the TWO forecast is for it to be warm next week then, along with the BBC and the Met Office? At odds with what people are saying here about a cold spell and a below average CET for March. They haven't downgraded the temps as some thought they would, they have upgraded the temps instead.

Edited by Mike W
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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Button 04 - 7.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Mark - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Evo - 6.2

Noggin - 6.2

Rikki - 6.1

SteveB - 6.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Stratos Ferric - 5.8

Paul Carfoot - 5.5

Thundersquall - 5.5

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6

Snooz - 4.3

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

Nick Sussex - 2.0 (ish)

The latest, with one addition at the bottom of the list, but I like it :D

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hi Mike, the Beeb now have Sunday maxes widespread at between 1-3C, down from yesterday's forecast.

Thats my point though, the beeb tend to downgrade the temps as the set-up comes closer and confidence on details becomes better they tend to adjust the temps more in line with what will actually happen.

Despite what some are saying the *models* are definatly showing a cold spell.

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