March CET

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Button 04 - 7.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6

Reef - 7.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1

Mike W - 7.0

PersianPaladin - 7.0

Bottesford - 6.7

Magpie - 6.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7

Dave J - 6.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6

Fordy - 6.5

Great Plum - 6.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5

Joneseye - 6.4

Kold Weather - 6.3

Mark - 6.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3

The Pit - 6.3

Evo - 6.2

Noggin - 6.2

Rikki - 6.1

SteveB - 6.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0

SnowmanReturns - 5.9

Stratos Ferric - 5.8

Paul Carfoot - 5.5

Thundersquall - 5.5

Optimus Prime - 5.1

Shuggee - 4.9

Snowmaiden - 4.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6

Snooz - 4.3

Tinybill - 4.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8

Nick Sussex - 2.0 (ish)

The latest, with one addition at the bottom of the list, but I like it

Bit late really but there is a very high chance here of posting a sub 3.5c cet....3.2 is mine. If its any consolation I did forecast in Feb that latter half of March wouuld be cold particularly from 20th on

BFTP

[Weather-history]

I think there is an outside chance that March 2006 could be the coldest month of the 21st Century so far!

January 2001: 3.2

March 2006 needs a CET of 3.1 at most

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Do you know what Mr D, I hadnt thought of that. That would be a truely amazing stat if that came true.

I bet you can here a question coming though

When was the last time March had a CET lower than all of Dec, Jan and Feb?

[Weather-history]

Do you know what Mr D, I hadnt thought of that. That would be a truely amazing stat if that came true.

I bet you can here a question coming though

When was the last time March had a CET lower than all of Dec, Jan and Feb?

1949, also the last time March was the coldest month of the year

Edited March 11, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

Even in this warming dominated era, mild synoptics are required to make March exceed 7C. Last year, the second half of March was the warmest since 1938 and caused by long-drag southerlies. If you don't get sustained warm synoptics, you don't get sustained warmth.

March 2003 is remembered by many as a notably warm sunny month, but in fact, despite there being no cold spells, the CET was only in the range of 7.5 to 7.7. A second-half-of-March outturn in that range would bring March 2006 up to about 5C for the month overall, which is still below average.

I remember reading that in the season of 1948/49, March was colder than the preceding Dec, Jan and Feb, although the stat might have been inaccurate.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

1898, also the last time March was the coldest month of the year

Forget snow...I want that low CET

[Matty M]

I think we could end up with March being around 2.5c below average at the end of the month which

would be unprecedended in these post modern times

[reef]

Even in this warming dominated era, mild synoptics are required to make March exceed 7C. Last year, the second half of March was the warmest since 1938 and caused by long-drag southerlies. If you don't get sustained warm synoptics, you don't get sustained warmth.

March 2003 is remembered by many as a notably warm sunny month, but in fact, despite there being no cold spells, the CET was only in the range of 7.5 to 7.7. A second-half-of-March outturn in that range would bring March 2006 up to about 5C for the month overall, which is still below average.

I remember reading that in the season of 1948/49, March was colder than the preceding Dec, Jan and Feb, although the stat might have been inaccurate.

1949 is indeed the last time it happened.

December 1949 - 5.7°C

January 1949 - 5.5°C

February 1949 - 5.7°C

March 1949 - 5.1°C

The following November (6.6°C) and December (5.8°C) were warmer aswell, making March the coldest month of the year.

[Weather-history]

Forget snow...I want that low CET

Sorry that should be March 1949 that was colder than December-February and March 1949 was the coldest month of the year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

How come the TWO forecast is for it to be warm next week then, along with the BBC and the Met Office? At odds with what people are saying here about a cold spell and a below average CET for March. They haven't downgraded the temps as some thought they would, they have upgraded the temps instead.

I think the BBC and Met Office will downgrade their mild predictions for next week. The GFS and UKMO models were previously projecting high pressure to sit over Britain with temperatures of 8-10C by day, but they have now fallen into line with the ECMWF suggestion of chilly east to north-easterly winds and I expect the BBC and MetO to fall into line soon.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Sorry that should be March 1949 that was colder than December-February and March 1949 was the coldest month of the year.

No probs Mr D I take the time before that was 1898 though

[Weather-history]

No probs Mr D I take the time before that was 1898 though

It was infact, 1915-16, although November 1915 was colder than December-March.

I was thinking March as the coldest month of the year, the last time that happened before 1949 was 1898

Last time January was warmer than March was 1983, the last time February was warmer than March was 1995

Edited March 11, 2006 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Well I'd have thought that there is a huge chance of this March having a colder CET then both Jan and Feb.

some truely stunning model runs that back up the idea of a possibly very cold March, with all agreeing on a easterly starting, then who knows after that!

I must admit its about time we had a cold set-up that actually occurs in the middle of the month rather then inbetween two months like the last two major cold spells in Feb 05 and 06.

Must be said I think the chance are high for this month to be have a CET anomaly of -2C, and I'm pretty sure its been a fair while since thats happened, mr.Data??

Also one last thing, just done a CET calculation based on the 06z GFS from the 1st-26th of March and I can honestly say I was utterly shocked!

so here we go, Nick S, this will pelase you:

2.4C!!!!!!

[Weather-history]

Must be said I think the chance are high for this month to be have a CET anomaly of -2C, and I'm pretty sure its been a fair while since thats happened, mr.Data??

May 1996, I think, that was more than 2C below the 1961-90 average.

[Bottesford]

Last time January was warmer than March was 1983, the last time February was warmer than March was 1995

Probably no link but.... 1983 had a July CET of 19.5 (highest month CET on record) and we all know the summer of '95...

[Guest Mike W]

Jan 1983: 6.5, Jan 1995: 4.7, Jan 2006: 4.3.

Not only that but the highest CET for winter 83 is 6.5, the highest for 1995 was 6.4, compared to 4.4 being the highest for 05/06 winter. My point being that it wasn't going to be difficult to get a March cooler than Janaury or Febuary on those occasions considering the CET they finished on, I mean 6.5 or 6.4 wouldn't look out of place for March these days, where as we have had no CET that high for January or Febuary or even December com to that, so it will be hard if not impossible to get March cooler than January of Febuary or December, I personally think the coldest we can acheive is 5.2, which is the coolsest March post 1997 which is what I use when looking for the coldest we can acheive. Sorry about long post and poor spelling BTW.

Edited March 11, 2006 by Mike W

[kold weather]

For me I'd say 5.2C is very much on the upper end of what is probable for this month, to get that figure would require the northerly GFS expects from the 20th not to occur at all but who knows!

By the way Mike, remmeber our chat last night, well the beeb's max temps for Sunday now at just 1-2C and monday is now at 3C...see what i mean by using the models can be more accurate then using the beeb solely as a source for temps.

I'd put a CET target at about 4.3C at the moment, though evn this may be on the high side I feel!

[Guest Mike W]

Examples of above 61-90 winters followed by above 61-90 summers:

61-90 winter: 4, 61-90 summer: 15.3

2003 Winter: +0.7, Summer: +1.9

1976 Winter: +1.3, Summer: +2.5

1995 Winter: +1.8, Summer: +2.1

1983 Winter: +0.2, Summer: +1.8

1990 Winter: +2.2, Summer: +0.9, + 1911, 1975, 2005, 2004, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1994, etc

Exceptions to the rule are 1998, 1993, 1922, 1988, 1981, 1974, 1972, etc. Basically even though their are a fair amount of exceptions, their are more following it than exceptions, but it would be an even bigger post. B)

Edited March 11, 2006 by Mike W

[Optimus Prime]

"Coldest first ten days of March (CET anomaly -2.8 degC) since 1987"

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

[drfeelgood]

For me I'd say 5.2C is very much on the upper end of what is probable for this month, to get that figure would require the northerly GFS expects from the 20th not to occur at all but who knows!

By the way Mike, remmeber our chat last night, well the beeb's max temps for Sunday now at just 1-2C and monday is now at 3C...see what i mean by using the models can be more accurate then using the beeb solely as a source for temps.

I'd put a CET target at about 4.3C at the moment, though evn this may be on the high side I feel!

The Beeb has revised down its forecast for London for tomorrow from 9C (max) to only 2C (max)!! Although I'm used to the Beeb routinely overestimating their temps, this one is pretty drastic even by their standards. As for the rest of next week, I remember their forecast was for highs or 10 or even 11....it looks like that mild spell has been cancelled! :lol:

[Nick F]

Some rather low maxima expected in Central and N'ern areas over the next few days, here's the maxima's at 15z tomorrow and Monday:

After being spot on with the Feb CET going by Philip Eden's CET series, I'll have a stab at 5.0C being the CET for March, basing it on a milder conditions from the SW later this month after the Easterly breaks down. Plus an inkling that it will be another close to average month like the last three.

Edited March 11, 2006 by Nick F

[Thundersquall]

Think my +5.5c prediction is even going to be a little too high! Unbeleiveable!

[Guest Mike W]

It's too early in March to think that 5.5 is going to be too high, we could suddenly have an Azores High or Bartlett High coming right for us the following week without seeing it coming, with only a day or two's notice, and then bang, up goes the CET. We always get stiched out of a average to below CET, it happened last year on alot of occasion, Feb and March to name just a few.

[reef]

It's too early in March to think that 5.5 is going to be too high, we could suddenly have an Azores High or Bartlett High coming right for us the following week without seeing it coming, with only a day or two's notice, and then bang, up goes the CET. We always get stiched out of a average to below CET, it happened last year on alot of occasion, Feb and March to name just a few.

As did May and June! At the half-way point in the month both of these months were quite a way below average, before exceptionally mild spells tipped the CET over the edge (by some way in June aswell).

Although in the medium range it looks particularly cold, reaching even an average value for the month is definitely not out of the question yet.

[Guest Mike W]

I just know we're going to get stiched again. In a way we already got stiched twice this year, Jan and Feb could have been colder and snowier, probably lack of certain unsavoury chemicals we use to have.

Edited March 11, 2006 by Mike W