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12z Model Comparisons


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 30 April 2006.

T+96 (to Thursday 4th May

GFS has a strong 985mb low to the west of Iceland, and southerlies over Britain. 1010mb trough over SW England. 1035mb Scandinavian High.

UKMO looks very similar to the GFS, low at only 990mb west of Iceland, identical pattern. 1035mb Scandinavian High.

ECMWF has 980mb low west of Iceland, 1035mb Scandinavian High, long draw of southerlies.

NOGAPS has 985mb low west of Iceland, 1035mb Scandinavian High, southerlies.

JMA: same as NOGAPS.

GEM also looks almost identical to NOGAPS.

So, incredible agreement among the models for Thursday 4th May!

T+120 (to Friday 5th May)

GFS has a deep 990mb low just off NW Scotland, a 1020mb ridge of high pressure into southern Britain, and slack westerlies. Notable 1040mb Scandinavian High.

UKMO has a 1010mb low over NW Scotland and SSW winds, and a beefy 1040mb Scandinavian High.

ECMWF has the Scandinavian High at 1030mb. A weak low over the British Isles, with light winds and a high at 1020mb trying to come into the SW.

NOGAPS has 1035mb Scandinavian High and 990mb Icelandic Low, with cyclonic SSW winds over the British Isles and the Atlantic appearing to "win".

JMA looks almost identical to UKMO.

GEM has a low at 995mb off W Scotland, 1035mb Scandinavian High and SSW winds, overall similar to NOGAPS.

Cooler fresher weather moving in from the west, but staying warm, looks to be the outlook.

T+144 (to Saturday 6th May)

GFS has a 1035mb Scandinavian High, but a low at 1010mb off NW Scotland, giving SW winds for Britain.

UKMO has 1005mb Low over Iceland, and easterlies for Britain, 1040mb Scandinavian High.

ECMWF has a 1005mb low to the south, and slack south-easterly winds.

NOGAPS keeps a cyclonic SSW flow going, in spite of a strong 1035mb Scandinavian High, with 1010mb lows to the west.

JMA has a 1005mb low off W Ireland and 1035mb Scandinavian High, and cyclonic/strong southerlies.

GEM has slack pressure over Britain, between highs to the NE and SW and an Icelandic Low.

Charts somewhat resemble those of last winter, with the Scandinavian High exerting an influence over our weather, but not enough to bring ex-Russian air west. The long drag of southerlies, responsible for dry cloudy weather during the winter, means heat, sun and thundery showers by this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 1 May 2006.

T+96 (to Friday 5th May

GFS has a 1040mb Scandinavian High, 1010mb low off NW Scotland, and keeps a long drag of southerlies going.

UKMO has a 1010mb low off W Ireland, and a strong 1040mb Scandinavian High with SSE winds, and the flow of a continental origin, winds becoming very strong in the east.

ECMWF goes with slack southerlies, 1035mb Scandinavinan High, 1010mb lows to the W.

NOGAPS shows 995mb low off NW Scotland, 1035mb Scandinavian High, and southerlies over Britain.

JMA has 995mb low off SW Scotland and strong southerlies.

GEM has a 1010mb low to the W of Scotland, 1040mb Scandinavian High and very long southerly draw.

A long draw of southerlies is suggested, although UKMO seems to want to bring a colder SE regime west.

T+120 (to Saturday 6th May)

GFS has a 1040mb Scandinavian High, and a 1010mb low to the south, and a pronounced easterly flow over the British Isles.

UKMO has a very strong SE flow, 1010mb low to the SW, 1040mb Scandinavian High.

ECMWF has 1015mb lows to the south and 1040mb Scandinavian High and SE winds.

NOGAPS has a much slacker ESE flow, with slack pressure gradient at 1015-1020mb in the south.

JMA seems to be the odd one out here- 1015mb low positioned right over Britain.

GEM has strong ESE winds, 1015mb low to the south, 1040mb Scandinavian High.

Seems that the models are starting to bring in the easterlies. The UKMO was the only model to show this yesterday.

T+144 (to Sunday 7th May)

GFS has very strong easterlies, and a 1040mb Scandinavian High and 1000mb low over southern France. Looks like east coasts would take quite a buffering.

UKMO has 1035mb Scandinavian High and 1010mb low over France, again strong easterlies.

ECMWF shows strong ESE winds and lowest pressure to the SW at 1005mb.

NOGAPS brings up some southerlies, very slack regime, on the eastern flank of 1010mb low over Ireland, still SE winds in northern Scotland.

JMA is again the odd one out, with a cyclonic southerly regime.

GEM goes for ESE winds with 1040mb high to the north, and 1010mb low over France.

It seems that this southerly regime is expected to end with an easterly. Before snow lovers think "darn, these synoptics would have been great if they had happened during the winter", note that these easterlies are sourced in the Mediterranean, and that easterlies of a similar source brought dry cloudy weather in December 2002 and early January 2006.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

So, as I tried to get up to date (again- sorry everyone!) my internet decided to crash. Here's the next updates:

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 2 May 2006.

T+96 (to Saturday 6th May

GFS has a 1040mb Scandinavian High, 1005mb low west of Scotland, and SE winds over Britain.

UKMO is similar but has 1005mb low off W Ireland, and south-easterlies.

ECMWF has the low at 1010mb and slightly further north than UKMO, and winds are SSE'ly.

NOGAPS shows 1010mb low off W Scotland and southerlies for Britain.

JMA has a slack S flow for western areas, SE for the east, with 1005mb low off W Ireland.

GEM has a 1010mb low over SW ENgland and ESE winds for most.

All models agree on a Scandinavian High of intensity 1040mb.

T+120 (to Sunday 7th May)

GFS has a 1010mb low over the British Isles, and ESE winds over the far NE.

UKMO has 1015mb low over south-west England and SE winds for Britain.

ECMWF has 1010mb low centred just off SW Ireland, with southerlies for the west, and SE winds in the northeast.

NOGAPS has easterlies, in association with a 1020mb low over southern England.

JMA has 1010mb low off W Ireland, southerlies for the west, SE winds in the northeast, similar5 to ECMWF.

GEM shows very strong easterly winds and a 1005mb low over France.

Fortunately for North Sea areas of eastern Scotland and NE England, the models have moved away from the strong easterlies scenario, except for GEM.+

T+144 (to Monday 8th May)

GFS has slack easterlies, 1035mb high to the north, 1010mb low to the SW.

UKMO has very strong easterlies, 1040mb high to the north, 1010mb low in France.

ECMWF keeps a similar outlook to Sunday's with a 1005mb low off SW England, ESE winds in Scotland but southerlies further south.

NOGAPS has rather chilly looking easterlies with 1015mb low to the south.

JMA has slack 1010mb low to the SW and light ESE winds.

GEM goes for ENE winds, and low pressure over the south.

So the models bring in the easterlies after all- but with a one-day delay.

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 3 May 2006.

T+96 (to Sunday 7th May

GFS has a 1010mb low off W Ireland and SW England, light southerlies for most, but SE winds in NE Scotland.

UKMO has a 1010mb low off SW England, further south than GFS, so the whole of northern Britain has easterlies, but light winds in the south.

ECMWF is identical to GFS.

NOGAPS has a 1015mb low off W Scotland and southerlies, and a strong high still over Scandinavia (the others have the high retrogressing westwards, and extending to our N)

JMA has 1005mb low off SW Ireland and southerlies for most, easterlies in the far north.

GEM has a 1010mb to the west of France- far further south than the other models- and ESE winds for us.

T+120 (to Monday 8th May)

GFS has a 1010mb low in the Channel, and strong easterlies.

UKMO has a 1010mb low in the Channel, and strong easterlies.

ECMWF has lighter easterlies, lowest pressure at 1010mb to the SW, and southerlies extending into the south.

NOGAPS has a 1010mb low to the SW and slack SE winds.

JMA has a slack regime with 1015mb low in the SW and light ESE winds.

GEM has strong ESE winds, 1010mb low to the SW>

The easterlies are still shown for Monday 8th May.

T+144 (to Tuesday 9th may)

GFS shows 1010mb low in the channel, now an ENE flow over Britain, ex-Scandinavian High retrogressing to Greenland.

UKMO also retrogresses the high to Greenland, and leaves Britain in ENE winds.

ECMWF retrogresses the high to Greenland but sticks a 1005mb low to our SW, bringing southerlies to the south, and ESE winds to the north.

NOGAPS is similar to ECMWF- 1010mb low to the SW, southerlies in the south, ESE'lys in the north.

JMA has a weak 1015mb low to the SE, slack ENE winds over Britain, and high pressure.

GEM has easterlies over Britain, 1010mb low to the SW though.

Overall, the high is expected to retrogress to Greenland, though this doesn't immediately mean imminent northerlies- the easterly regime looks set to continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I could've sworn I got further than 3rd May, but clearly I didn't! Here's 4-5 May then. 6-7 May will be updated tomorrow.

So, as I tried to get up to date (again- sorry everyone!) my internet decided to crash. Here's the next updates:

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 4 May 2006.

T+96 (to Monday 8th May

GFS: 1010mb low over SW England, ESE winds elsewhere, 1030mb high to the north.

UKMO: Weak low at 1015mb in the south, and high to the north more intense, at 1035mb. Easterlies.

ECMWF: Low at 1015mb over southern half of England, easterlies for northern England and Scotland

NOGAPS: 1010mb low placed down in the Channel. Easterlies.

JMA: 1010mb low in the Channel, and winds from a ESE/SE direction.

GEM: ESE winds over Britain, low over Southern England even slacker, at only 1020mb.

All models agree on easterlies, and low pressure over the south, but not very strong low pressure.

T+120 (to Tuesday 9th May)

GFS: 1015mb low shown over northern England, light westerlies in the south, easterlies for northern Scotland, with a 995mb low in the Atlantic.

UKMO: Entire Grid Undefined. I think that's the first time I've seen that happen to the UKMO!

ECMWF: Slack pressure at 1020mb over England & Wales, light easterlies for Scotland.

NOGAPS: Slack 1020mb low off SE England, moderate easterly winds.

JMA: 1010mb low in the Channel, easterly winds.

GEM has a ridge of high pressure over the south, and light easterlies further north.

T+144 (to Wednesday 10th May)

GFS: Still that strong 990mb mid-Atlantic low. Very slack easterly flow over Britain.

UKMO: A mass of white, with "Entire Grid Undefined" written on it.

ECMWF: Also has very slack pressure gradient over Britain, 1020mb pressure.

NOGAPS: Slack easterlies over Britain, with a northerly flow extending towards Scotland due to the Scandinavian High having retrogressed to Greenland.

JMA: Slack easterlies, with 1015mb low in the northern North Sea just off SW Norway and with northerlies coming closer.

GEM: Slack ridge of high pressure over Britain, NNE winds for the SE.

Model Comparisons for T+144, T+120 and T+96 on 5 May 2006.

T+96 (to Tuesday 9th May

GFS: Slack high pressure ridge over the south, moderate ESE winds elsewhere, flat high pressure to the north.

UKMO: Slack pressure, neither low nor high, for the south, with moderate easterlies elsewhere.

ECMWF has more of a NE flow- similar to GFS but with the ridge of high pressure for the south positioned further west, affecting the Ireland/West Country areas.

NOGAPS is the same as ECMWF.

JMA has slack easterlies over northern Britain, and neither low nor high pressure for the south- just constant at 1015-1020mb.

GEM: 1015mb low off SE England, easterlies for all.

T+120 (to Wednesday 10th May)

GFS has 1015mb low to the south, and moderate easterlies.

UKMO: A slack pressure region over Britain, at around 1020mb, with slack easterlies for northern Scotland.

ECMWF has light easterlies across the whole country, so more similar to GFS than UKMO.

NOGAPS: High pressure controlling Scotland's weather (1025mb), light ESE winds further south.

JMA: A 1015mb trough over southern England, with very light easterlies for Scotland, but changing to very light southerlies in the south. Still a very slack regime.

GEM: Moderate easterlies over Britain, 1015mb low off SE ENgland.

The easterlies are still shown for Monday 8th May.

T+144 (to Thursday 11th May)

GFS: Slack easterlies for most of the country, but a 1015mb low off Kent resulting in stronger ENE winds for the southeast.

UKMO: 1015mb pressure over Britain, again a very slack regime with neither low nor high pressure.

ECMWF now has only very light easterlies- 1015mb low over SE England.

NOGAPS: 1025mb High over most of Britain, light easterlies in the south.

JMA: Southerlies starting to establish across Britain on the eastern periphery of a 990mb mid-Atlantic low.

GEM: Very light easterlies, mostly slack pressure at 1020mb.

The 4th May didn't feature much of note, but 5 May's outputs showed a split- the JMA trying to bring in southerlies, the UKMO going for slack pressure, the NOGAPS for high pressure, and the GFS, ECMWF and GEM going for continued easterly winds.

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  • 1 month later...

For the next few weeks I will be posting a summary of the day's charts for T+96, T+120 and T+144 to allow Ian (TWS) to continue his excellent summaries on his return.

T+96 (to Tuesday 11th July)

GFS: 1035mb High Pressure centred just north of the Azores allowing a NW flow over the Atlantic, ridging to allow a W/SW flow over the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025 mb to the South, 1010mb to the North, with an Low Pressure of 995mb around Iceland.

UKMO: 1035mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores allowing a W flow over the Atlantic, giving a W/SW flow over the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025 mb to the South, 1015mb to the North, with an Low Pressure of 990mb around Iceland.

ECMWF: 1035mb High Pressure centred to the North of the Azores allowing a W/NW flow over the Atlantic, ridging to allow a W/SW flow over the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025 mb to the South, 1010mb to the North, with a weak area of Low Pressure of 1000mb around Iceland.

NOGAPS: 1035mbHigh Pressure centred just East of the Azores allowing a W flow over the Atlantic, giving a W/SW flow over the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025+mb to the South, 1020mb to the North, with an Low Pressure of 995mb around Greenland and 985mb to the West of Iceland.

JMA: 1035mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores allowing a W flow over the Atlantic, ridging to allow a W/SW flow over the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025+ mb to the South, 1015mb to the North, Low Pressure of 1010mb around Iceland, but no real low pressure systems as per other charts.

GEM: Flabby 1030mb High Pressure centred to the North of the Azores allowing a W/SW flow over the Atlantic and the UK, Pressure over UK ranging from 1025+ mb to the South, 1020mb to the North, with an Deep Low Pressure of 985mb around Iceland.

T+120 (to Wednesday 12th July)

GFS: 1035mb High Pressure centred just north of the Azores but flatter giving a West flow over the Atlantic, but now with a W/NW flow over the UK. Pressure over UK ranging from 1025mb to the South, 1015mb to the North, with a Low Pressure of 1000mb skirting just north of Scotland.

UKMO: 1035mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores but elongated and ridging over much of Southern UK, giving NE winds to the South, and 1025 mb Pressure, lower pressure in Scotland 1020mb and SW winds, Low Pressure sill over Iceland (995mb).

ECMWF: GFS: 1030mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores but flatter giving a West flow over the Atlantic, but now with a W/SW flow over the UK. Pressure over UK ranging from 1025mb to the South, 1015mb to the North, with a Low Pressure of 1000mb skirting just north of Scotland, if anything the High Pressure is losing its dominance for the UK.

NOGAPS: 1035mb High Pressure centred NE of the Azores allowing a SW flow over the Atlantic, and the UK, but with a NE flow over the far SE, Pressure over UK ranging from 1030mb to the South, 1020mb to the North, with Low Pressure well to the North of the UK, North and East of Iceland.

JMA: 1035mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores and West of Northern France, but ridging close to the Southern UK, SW to much of the UK and the Atlantic giving N winds to the Southeast, Pressure between 1025 and 1030 over the whole of then UK. 1000mb Low Pressure to the West of Norway.

GEM: 1030mb High Pressure centred just North of the Azores but elongated and ridging over much of Southern UK, giving NE winds to the South, and 1025 mb Pressure, lower pressure in Scotland 1020mb and SW winds, Low Pressure sill over Iceland (990mb).

T+144 (to Thursday 13th July)

GFS: High Pressure 1030mb moves Northeast, now centred East of France, to envelope much of UK, with 1025mb+ pressure for mush of the UK, but lower pressure in Scotland, (1015mb), westerly winds in Scotland, NE over Southern England, low pressure now moved to NW Scandinavia.

UKMO: 1035mb High Pressure further ridged over UK with pressure over 1025 mb for the entire UK, west winds in North, NE winds in South, HP centred well to the West of France, LOW Pressure now to the East of Iceland, Low pressure also developing (1010 south of Greenland but the same latitude as Scotland.

GFS: Huge Area of flabby High Pressure 1025mb centred well to the North of the Azores ridges over Southern UK, but with a low Pressure (1000mb) skirting Northern Scotland, moves Northeast, Pressure 1015 in Northern Scotland, to 1025+ in the South, West winds, except NE winds in far SE.

NOGAPS: 1035mb High Pressure now dominant force over UK with pressure over 1025mb for the entire UK, and over 1030mb for much of the South. West winds in North, NE winds in South, HP centred well to the West of France, LOW Pressure now to the East of Iceland, but now low pressure to the west of Iceland, (1005mb)

JMA: 1030mb High Pressure now dominant force over UK with pressure over 1025mb for the entire UK, and over 1030mb for much of the South. West winds in North, NE winds in South, HP centred well to the West of SW England, LOW Pressure now in Scandinavia, but now low pressure to the west of Iceland, (1010mb)

GEM: Huge area of High Pressure 1030 mb centred well off Northern France and covering whole of UK and much of Eastern Atlantic with pressure over 1025 mb for the entire UK, SW winds in North, NE winds in South, LOW Pressure covering much of GIN areas, with 995mb to the West of Norway.

Summary

GFS/ECMWF unsettled in North with low pressure skirting and ridging high pressure to the south.

All the other go for high Pressure starting to dominate, especially NOGAPS/JMA, UKMO slightly in the middle, while GEM goes for lower pressure than any in the GIN areas.

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T+96 (to Wednesday 12th July)

GFS: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1025mb). Unsettled with Lower Pressure Scotland 1015mb, with Low Pressure to the East of Iceland 990mb, Winds Westerly over UK (except NE in far SE, strong in N.

UKMO: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1025mb). Pressure in Scotland around 1020mb, with Low Pressure to the East of Iceland 995mb, Winds SW over UK (except NE in far SE.)

ECMWF: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1025mb). Unsettled with Lower Pressure Scotland 1015mb, with Low Pressure well to the East of Iceland 990mb, Winds Westerly over UK (except NE in far SE.

NOGAPS: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just N of the Azores ridging over England and Wales (1025mb), and all of UK above 1020mb, with Low Pressure to the NE of Iceland 995mb not threatening, Winds Westerly over UK (except NE in far SE).

JMA: 1035mb High Pressure centred just NE of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1025mb) and all of UK above 1020mb, with flabby Low Pressure around Iceland 1005mb, Winds W/SW over the Atlantic and the UK (except NE in far SE.

GEM: 1030mb High Pressure centred just N of the Azores ridging over SW UK (1025mb) but all of the UK included in a flabby High stretching up to Russia and all of UK above 1020mb, Deep Low Pressure around Iceland 995mb, and 1005 south of Greenland. Winds W/SW over the Atlantic and the UK , but N/NE over central southern parts.

T+120 (to Thursday 13th July)

GFS: LARGE 1030+mb High Pressure centred just north of the Azores but with a 1030mb centre over Ireland, entire UK 1025+mb plus pressure, much more settled conditions. Low Pressure 995mb pushed to West of Norway. Winds Westerly in North, Easterly in South, round High Pressure.

UKMO: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1020mb) and into the continent, Pressure in Scotland around 1015mb, with Low Pressure in the GIN area, 1000mb north of Norway, winds SW over Northern UK, NE in the South.

ECMWF: 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores, pressure 1025+mb in Western areas. Lower Pressure in the east, and in the GIN area. Winds Westerly in North, Northerly in other parts.

NOGAPS: Elongated 1030+mb High Pressure centred well W of France, giving 1025+mb pressure over all of UK. SW winds over Scotland, NE over Southern UK. 1000mb Low Pressure to West of N Norway, 990mb West of Iceland not threatening.

JMA: Elongated 1030+mb High Pressure running SW/NE centred well W of France, giving 1025+mb pressure over all of UK, and 1030mb in Western UK. SW winds over Scotland, NE over Southern UK. 1010mb Low Pressure to West of Iceland

GEM: Huge area of High Pressure from Western Atlantic and into Russia, 1020+mb over all of UK, and 1025+mb with ridge into SW UK. SW winds over Scotland, NE over Southern UK. 990mb Low Pressure to West of Iceland and 1000mb West of Norway.

T+144 (to Friday 14th July)

GFS: 1030mb High Pressure centred over UK dominating conditions, Low Pressure to west of Iceland (985mb) and West of Norway (1000mb), not threatening UK, winds light SW in North, East in South.

UKMO: A messy chart with the 1030+mb High Pressure remaining centred just NW of the Azores ridging over the UK (1020mb), with Low Pressure in the GIN area, Westerly winds in the N, Northerly over much of the UK.

ECMWF: 1030+mb Dominating High Pressure centred just W of Ireland, giving 1025mb pressure over all of UK. W winds over Scotland, E/NE over Southern UK. 1010mb Low Pressure over Northern Atlantic.

NOGAPS: 1030+mb Dominating High Pressure centred just well W of Ireland, giving 1030mb pressure over all of UK. W winds over Scotland, E/NE over Southern UK. 1000mb Low Pressure to NE of Iceland not threatening UK.

JMA: 1030mb Dominating High Pressure centred over UK, giving 1025+mb pressure over all of UK. W winds over Scotland, E over Southern UK. Lower Pressure in GIN area and over Atlantic.

GEM: Huge area of High Pressure from Western Atlantic and into Russia, 1020+mb over all of UK, and 1030mb with ridge into SW UK. .Centre of High now well west of Ireland Light winds over UK, variable direction, Low Pressure 990mb just North of Iceland.

Summary

More Diversion today.

GFS gone with more settled theme for next week, NOGAPS and JMA very similar in establishing High Pressure on T+96 and having high pressure slightly more dominant over UK.

UKMO and ECM less keen on building Azores High over UK, but ECM does this in the t+144 with GEM going for a massive High Pressure over the UK, but not as dominant.

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T+96 (to Thursday 13th July)

GFS: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over UK (1025mb). Unsettled with Lower Pressures west of Iceland and West of Norway 995mb, , Winds Westerly over N UK, and NE in the far SE.

UKMO: Huge Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred north of Azores ridging over the UK (1025+mb) and covering most of Atlantic. with Low Pressure to the West of Iceland 1005mb and 995mb West of N Norway , Winds SW over N UK, NE in far SE.

ECMWF: Large Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred West of Northern France giving 1030mb pressure in western areas, 1025 mb over east. Low Pressure Greenland 1005mb, and NW of N Norway, 995mb, Winds NW over North, NE in South.

NOGAPS: Not Available

JMA: Elongated 1030mb High Pressure running SW/NE centred north of Azores, giving 1025+mb pressure over all of UK. SW winds over Scotland, NE over Southern UK. 995mb Low Pressure to West of Norway.

GEM: Huge 1030mb High Pressure centred just N of the Azores ridging over S UK (1025mb) but all of the UK included in a flabby High and all of UK above 1020mb, Deep Low Pressure to west of Norway 995mb, and 1005 south of Greenland. Winds W/SW over the Atlantic and the UK, but N/NE over central southern parts.

T+120 (to Friday 14th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell over UK 1030mb East of UK, almost cut off from main Azores High, still centred North of Azores. 1025mb over all of UK, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb west of Iceland.

UKMO: Flabby 1030+mb High Pressure centred just NW of the Azores ridging over Southern UK (1020mb) and into the continent, Pressure in Scotland around 1015mb, with Low Pressure in the GIN area, 1000mb north of Norway, winds SW over Northern UK, NE in the South.

ECMWF: 1035mb High Pressure cell over UK as part of elongate Azores High, giving 1030+mb of all of UK. Lower Pressure 995mb West of Iceland, and NW of Norway. Winds SW in North, Easterly in South.

NOGAPS: Not Available

JMA: Elongated 1025+mb weakening High Pressure centred West of France giving 1025mb pressure over most of UK, lower in Scotland with Low Pressure SE of Iceland 1010mb threatening. SW winds over Scotland, E/NE over Southern UK.

GEM: Large area of High Pressure centred west of France, covering all of UK and much of Atlantic, 1025mb in Southern UK, 1015mb in Far North. W winds over Scotland, E/NE over Southern UK. Lower Pressure GIN, 995 North of Norway.

T+144 (to Saturday 14th July)

GFS: 1025mb Elongated High Pressure cell over UK, just about still attached to main Azores High 1030 centred well to west of Azores. , SW winds in Northern Scotland, NE in the South. 1000mb cells south of Greenland and around Iceland.

UKMO: A messy chart with High Pressures to the West and East of the UK around 1025mb, lower pressure over UK 1020mb, with Easterly winds in South, variable elsewhere, low pressure over GIN.

ECMWF: 1030+mb Dominating High Pressure building over UK, with High Pressure down into Azores. Lower Pressure in GIN but no real threats. SW winds in NW, Easterly in South

NOGAPS: Not Available

JMA: Messy Picture, high pressure has broken up with no dominant pressure over UK, generally close to 1020mb, with High Pressure over Western Europe 1025mb and back close to Azores 1025mb, lower pressure over GIN Winds possible Easterly in South, Variable elsewhere.

GEM: Elongated High 1030mb centred well west of France dominating picture of giving 1025mb+ pressure over all UK. West winds over Scotland, NE in South. Lower Pressure in GIN no real threats.

Summary a bit of a turnaround with ECMWF now going for the most pronounced High Pressure over UK, with most of the others going for a ridge of High Pressure over UK for a good couple of days at least. UKMO and JMA going for a split in the high pressure in the T+144.

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T+96 (to Friday 14th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030mb, part of Main Azores High, still centred North of Azores, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb west of Iceland.

UKMO: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030mb, part of Flabby Azores High, still centred North of Azores, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb west of Iceland and 1005mb North of Norway.

ECMWF: High Pressure cell centred over NE UK 1035mb, part of Main Azores High, still centred North of Azores, SW winds in North, E/NE in South. Lower Pressure 995mb west of Iceland.

NOGAPS: Entire Grid Undefined

JMA: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1035mb, with 1030mb for all of UK, part of Main Azores High, centred NE of Azores, SW winds in North, E/NE in South. Lower Pressure 995mb west of Iceland.

GEM: Huge 1030mb High Pressure centred just N of the Azores with 1030mb cell over Central UK, pressure over UK 1025-1030mb, winds variable round High Pressure cell, Low Pressure to West of Iceland 1000mb and off N Norway 1000mb.

T+120 (to Saturday 15th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell building over UK 1030+mb, still part of Azores High, but that centred only just west of UK. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb deepening and now SW of Iceland, and well west of UK.

UKMO: High Pressure over UK, with cell 1030mb centred to the East, with the UK part of main Azores high, pressure over UK 1025-1030mb. W winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb deepening and now SW of Iceland, and well west of UK., another 1000mb NE of Iceland.

ECMWF: High Pressure over UK 1025-100mb, with cell centred over Southern Norway and this is just about part of Azores High. SW winds in North, NE in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb west of Iceland not threatening.

NOGAPS: UK under High Pressure cell 1035mb centred east of UK, giving, 1030mb over UK, with UK under 1025mb Pressure, Large Low Pressure NE of Iceland may fringe into NW Scotland. winds SW in North, E in South.

JMA: Elongated 1030+mb Azores High covering all of UK and centred just SW of Ireland. SW winds over Scotland, E/NE over Southern UK. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1000mb fading Away, another low pressure 1000mb North of Iceland.

GEM: UK under elongated flabby High Pressure 1030mb, centred west of Ireland , with UK under 1025mb Pressure, 1000mb Low Pressure now NE of Iceland and well north of Norway. winds SW in North, E in South.,

T+144 (to Sunday 16th July)

GFS: Dominant High Pressure cell building over UK 1035mb, and 1030mb over all UK, now split from Main Azores High (1025mb). SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb still SW of Iceland, and well west of UK.

UKMO: High Pressure cell still to East of UK 1030mb, but still part of High Pressure 1025mb+ now detached from main Azores High, Low Pressure to the SW of Iceland moving East, 990mb. and 1000mb west of Norway. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb still SW of Iceland, and well west of UK.

ECMWF: High Pressure over Norway moving away NE, so no dominant pressure over UK (1020-1025), Azores High in place, no threatening low pressure for UK on map.

NOGAPS: UK under large High Pressure running from Azores to Russia, with 1030mb cell over Central UK, pressure lower in NW Scotland 1020mb , Low Pressure West of Norway, 990mb.

JMA: Dominant High Pressure cell building over UK 1030mb, part of huge Azores High. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb building W of Iceland, another low pressure 1005mb North East of Iceland.

GEM: Messy chart with UK under huge weak high-pressure block of around 1020mb, 1025mb over Azores. Lower Pressure generally in GIN area.

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+96 (to Saturday 15th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030+mb, part of Main Azores High, still centred North of Azores, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and well West of UK. Lower pressure generally in Gin area.

UKMO: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030+mb, running SW/NE, part of Main Azores High, centred NE of Azores, SW winds in North, NE in South. Lower Pressure 995mb SW of Iceland. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

ECMWF: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over UK 1035 running SW/NE, with UK covered by 1030+mb, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and well west of UK, and another 1000mb Low Pressure on Iceland. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

NOGAPS: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over UK 1035, with UK covered by 1030+mb, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and well west of UK. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030+mb, part of Main Azores High, centred NE of Azores, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb W of Iceland. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

GEM: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1035mb, 1030mb over UK. part of Main Azores High, SW winds in North, E in South. 2 Lower Pressure cells around Iceland 1000mb.

T+120 (to Sunday 16th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, with UK 1025+mb, Main Azores High now gone. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb S of Iceland nudging into High pressure to the NW of UK.

UKMO: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, with UK 1025+mb, this still part of Flabby Azores High Winds SW in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 985mb just SW of Iceland.

ECMWF: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030mb. running SW/NE and part of flabby Azores high. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb W of Iceland. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

NOGAPS: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over Northern UK 1035, with UK covered by 1030+mb, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and west of Northern UK. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, with UK 1025+mb, still part of Flabby Azores High. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and West of UK.

GEM: UK under elongated flabby High Pressure 1030mb, High Pressure Cell centred over UK with UK under 1025-1030mb Pressure, 1000mb Low Pressure well now SW of Iceland. Winds SW in North, E in South.

T+144 (to Monday 17th July)

GFS: Ridge of High Pressure over UK 1025+mb, W/SW winds in North, E/NE in South. Lower Pressure 990mb NE of Iceland and pushing away to the north.

UKMO: High Pressure cell still to East of UK 1025mb, 1020mb over UK. but still part of Flabby High all the way to the Azores. , Low Pressure to the E of Iceland 985mb, SW winds in North, E in South.

ECMWF: High Pressure Centred Over UK 1025mb+. W winds in North, E in South. Deep 990mb Low Pressure now East of Iceland and close to effecting Northern Scotland.

NOGAPS: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over Northern UK 1030+mb, SW winds in North, E/NE in South. Lower Pressure 1005mb around Iceland and another one 1015mb SW of Iceland Dying Out. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

JMA: High Pressure pushed away to North East by Low Pressure system 985mb over Iceland but influencing the weather over much of Northern UK. Pressure 1025mb over SE UK, 1015 over NW Scotland, winds Strong SW in the NW, E in the SE.

GEM: UK under High Pressure Cell centred over UK 1025+mb, High Pressure Cell centred over UK, 1005mb Low Pressure still well SW of Iceland. Winds SW in North, E in South.

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+96 (to Sunday 16th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030+mb, Central UK 1030+mb, 1020mb in NW Scotland, part of Main Azores High, strong SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 995mb just SW of Iceland and this affecting the weather for N Scotland, Settled conditions for much of the rest of the UK.

UKMO: High Pressure cell centred over Southern Norway 1030+mb, running SW/NE, part of Main Azores High, SW winds in North UK, E in South. Lower Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb not really threatening UK.

ECMWF: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030+mb, 1025+mb over all of UK, part of Main Azores High, SW winds in North UK, E in South. Lower Pressure SW of Iceland 1000mb.

NOGAPS: High Pressure cell centred over UK 1030+mb in most parts, part of Main Azores High. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 985mb just W of Iceland and looks as if it may effect the UK in future days. But settled conditions for the UK at the moment.

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England 1030+mb, with much of UK 1030mb or more, part of Main Azores High, SW winds in North UK, E in South. Weak Area of Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb not really threatening UK.

GEM: Dominant High Pressure centred just off Eastern England, 1030mb over much of UK. SW winds in North, E in South. 995mb Low Pressure well SW of Iceland.

T+120 (to Monday 17th July)

GFS: Rectangular Area of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, with 1030mb cell centred just to East of England, with 1025+mb pressure for all of UK, winds W in Scotland, E in the South, 1005mb low pressure just west of Norway too far north to effect UK weather.

UKMO: Huge Area of very flabby High Pressure over UK with cells of 1030mb over UK, with 1025+mb for all of UK, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1005mb SE of Iceland may affect the weather in NW parts.

ECMWF: Ridge form Azores High over UK, 1025mb in South, 1020mb in North with Low Pressure 995mb threatening northern UK, winds East In South ,West in North.

NOGAPS: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over Northern UK 1035, with UK covered by 1030+mb, SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland and west of Northern UK. High Pressure Ridge into Eastern GIN area.

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, with UK 1025+mb, just detached from Flabby Azores High. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb just SW of Iceland.

GEM: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, with UK 1025+mb, just detached from Flabby Azores High. SW winds in North, E in South. Lower Pressure 990mb just W of Iceland. Very Similar to JMA.

T+144 (to Tuesday 18th July)

GFS: Rectangular Area of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, with 1030mb cell centred well west of UK, with 1025+mb pressure for all of UK, winds NE in Scotland, E in the South, lower pressure in GIN.

UKMO: Area of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, with 1030mb cell centred well just off NW Scotland, with 1025+mb pressure for all of UK, winds NE in Scotland, E in the South, 1000mb low pressure running into N Norway.

ECMWF: ECMWF: Ridge form Azores High over UK, 1025mb in South, 1020mb in North with Low Pressure 995mb now away to west of Norway. HP cell 1030mb to west of UK, Generally Settled picture for UK.

NOGAPS: Messy Picture with the UK under weak but large high pressure 1020mb, running well into Atlantic, lower pressure generally in GIN, 995mb North of Norway. Varibale winds over UK.

JMA: Messy Area of High Pressure over UK around 1025mb generally, part of large Azores High with 1030mb cell centred well west of UK, variable but light winds, 995mb low pressure west of N Norway.

GEM: Area of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, with 1030mb cell centred just East of Northern UK, with 1025+mb pressure for all of UK, winds NE in Scotland, E in the South, 100mb low pressure north of Iceland.

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+96 (to Monday 17th July)

GFS: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England over UK 1030mb, Central UK 1025+mb, 1020mb in SW parts, SW winds in North, SE in South. Lower Pressure 1010mb just NE of Scotland.

UKMO: Huge Area of very flabby 1025mb High Pressure centred north of Azores over UK with pressure 1020-1025mb. Still mainly settled with lower pressure in GIN and W winds in North, E in South.

ECMWF: Dominant High Pressure cell centred over the UK 1025mb, West winds in North, East winds in South. 990mb Low Pressure off Western Norway not threatening UK.

NOGAPS: Not Available Again

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England 1025+mb, with much of southern UK 1020mb or more, lower pressure in NW Scotland and threatened by Low pressure 1000mb over Iceland. SW winds in North UK, E in South.

GEM: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England 1030mb, most of YUK 1025+mb, lower pressure over NW Scotland, Settled over most of UK but low pressure 995mb over Iceland threatens NW Scotland. Winds Easterly in South, SW in North.

T+120 (to Tuesday 18th July)

GFS: Flabby Area of High Pressure over UK 1020-1025mb. Winds E/SE over all UK. 1015mb Low Pressure off France looking threatening. Thundery Breakdown Risk

UKMO: Eastern edge of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, centred north of Azores 1030mb, with UK 1020-1025mb. winds light NE over UK round High Pressure. Low Pressure in GIN no threats.

ECMWF: Huge Area of very flabby 1025mb High Pressure with cell of 1025mb close to UK, with pressure over UK1020-1025mb. Mainly settled with low pressure pushed away to North of Norway and variable winds in North, E in South.

NOGAPS: Ridge from Azores High over UK, 1020mb over UK generally, 1010mb Low Pressure over Norway may influencing Northern UK weather. Winds W in North, NE in South.

JMA: Ridge from 1030mb Azores High centred north of Azores. With 1020mb Pressure covering all of UK. Low Pressure 1000mb NE of Iceland slowly looking less threatening. West winds in N, East in South.

GEM: Area of High Pressure over UK, running into Atlantic, with 1030mb cell centred well West of UK, and North of the Azores, all of UK 1020+mb winds W in Scotland, E in the South, 1005mb low pressure east of Iceland.

T+144 (to Wednesday 19th July)

GFS: Flabby Area of High Pressure over UK 1020-1025mb, centred North of Scotland. Winds E/SE over all UK. Deepening 1010mb Low Pressure now well west of southern UK. Thundery Breakdown Risk.

UKMO: Eastern edge of High Pressure slightly building over UK, running into Atlantic, centred north of Azores 1030+mb, with UK 1020-1025+mb. Winds light W in North, E over South. Low Pressure in GIN and over France.

ECMWF: Flabby Area of High Pressure over UK 1020-1025mb, centred North of Scotland. Winds E in South, variable in North. 1015mb Northern France threatening breakdown for south.

NOGAPS: 1030mb Azores High centred well west of UK, building over UK 1025mb in West, 1020mb generally. . Winds light W in North, E over South. Low Pressure in GIN but settled over UK.

JMA: 1030mb Azores High building to west of UK now centred West of Scotland, with 1025mb pressure over Northern UK, 1020mb in South. Winds NE over UK, lower pressure now in France 1015mb looking more of a risk.

GEM: UK under Eastern edge of 1030mb High Pressure centred North of Azores, UK 1020-1025mb. Winds W in Scotland, E in the South, 1010mb low pressure around Iceland not threatening.

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+96 (to Tuesday 18th July )

GFS: Very Messy picture with high Pressure running from Eastern UK into northern Norway, giving 1020mb for Eastern UK, lower in the west. Low Pressure 1005mb S of Iceland looking very threatening and low pressure France 1015mb. Winds light and variable.

UKMO: UK under Huge Area of very flabby High Pressure, UK 1020mb. Low pressure 1010mb over Iceland, not far from NW Scotland. SW winds in North West, Easterly in South.

ECMWF: UK Under High Pressure cell centred off Northern Scotland 1030mb, ridging up to Greenland High. Most of UK 1025mb, lower in far South. Low pressure SW of Iceland 1015mb and Southern France 1015mb. Winds E/SE over all UK.

NOGAPS: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England 1025mb, as part of general High Pressure. Most of UK 1020mb, lower pressure on Iceland 1015mb threatening NW Scotland. Light variable winds.

JMA: High Pressure cell centred off Eastern England 1025+mb, with all of UK 1020mb or more with settled conditions. Low pressure 1010mb over Iceland, low pressure too over France. Light variable winds.

GEM: UK under Eastern edge of 1030mb+ Atlantic High with UK 1025mb, giving settled conditions. West winds in far North, NE in South, no real threats from low pressure.

T+120 (to Wednesday 18th July)

GFS: Messy again picture with high Pressure running from NE UK into northern Norway. Azores High trying to ridge into NW Scotland. Low Pressure 1010mb S of Iceland pushing away north and 1015mb Low Pressure Northern France trying to bring thundery breakdown into SE UK. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb, winds light and variable.

UKMO: UK under Huge Area of very flabby High Pressure, UK 1020mb. Low pressure 1015mb over Iceland not threatening, Low Pressure off SW England and in France threatening thundery breakdown. Variable winds in North West, Easterly in South.

ECMWF: UK Under High Pressure cell centred off Northern Scotland moving slowly North 1030mb, ridging up to Greenland High. Most of UK 1025mb, lower in South. Low pressure SW of Iceland 1015mb and Northern France giving risk of thundery breakdown 1015mb. Winds E/SE over all UK.

NOGAPS: Ridge from Azores High over UK, 1020mb over UK generally, 1015mb Low Pressure East of Iceland less of a threat, Winds W in North, E in South. 1015mb in Southern France.

JMA: UK under large flabby high with 1030mb north of Azores, with 1025mb over Northern UK, 1020mb over South, settled conditions generally. Low pressure 1010mb NE of Iceland, low pressure too over France. W winds in far North, E winds elsewhere.

GEM: UK under Eastern edge of 1030mb+ Atlantic High with UK 1025mb+ slowly moving Eastwards over UK. giving settled conditions. West winds in far North, NE in South, no real threats from low pressure.

T+144 (to Thursday 19th July)

GFS: The 2 areas of High Pressure have joined to form a huge ridge from the Azores into Northern Norway giving High pressure over Northern UK, 1020mb. Lower Pressure in South and still risk from low pressure in Northern France 1015mb. Low Pressure Iceland not a threat. Winds NE in South, SW in North.

UKMO: High pressure to NW of Scotland, 1025mb, with 1020mb for much of North UK lower pressure in South, with Low Pressure in Northern France and in South West approaches to UK threatening thundery breakdown. Winds variable in North, Easterly in South.

ECMWF: UK Under High Pressure cell centred off Northern Scotland moving slowly North and weakening 1025mb, ridging up to Greenland High. Northern UK 1020+mb, lower in South. Low pressure 1015mb just off Southern England thundery breakdown likely. Winds E over all UK.

NOGAPS: 1030 High Pressure building North of Scotland, with far North of Scotland 1030mb, but only 1020mb in southern UK, Low pressure in North pushed away into Norway. Looking mainly settled, easterly winds in most areas.

JMA: UK under huge High Pressure block from Azores into Scandinavia, centred W of N Scotland, 1030mb, with UK 1020mb in South, 1025 in North, Settled though. Low pressure 1010mb West of Norway, low pressure too over France. Light variable winds.

GEM: UK under Eastern edge of 1030mb+ Atlantic High with UK 1025mb+, similar position to T+120. giving settled conditions. West winds in far North, NE in South, no real threats from low pressure. Small Low Pressure 1015mb well north of Scotland.

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+96 (to Wednesday 19th July)

GFS: Very Messy picture with high Pressure running from Eastern England though a centre east of Iceland 1030mb into a Greenland High. Pressure over UK 1020mb in East less in west, 2 joined low-pressure systems 1005mb SW of Iceland, with thundery lows threatening SW parts of UK. Winds light, southerly in East variable elsewhere.

UKMO: A High Pressure running from Eastern England though a centre east of Iceland 1025mb into a Greenland Ridge of High Pressure. Pressure over UK 1020mb over eastern parts, less in west. Low-pressure systems 1010mb SW of Iceland and West of Northern Scotland looking threatening, with 1015mb low pressure off SW approaches, Winds light, southerly generally.

ECMWF: Northern UK part of High Pressure centred over Iceland 1030mb and linked to Greenland ridge. Low Pressure 1010mb SW of Iceland with weak Lower Pressure over SW UK. Pressure over UK 1020mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light SE over most parts.

NOGAPS: Very Messy picture with high Pressure running from Eastern England though a centre east of Iceland 1025mb into a Greenland Ridge of High Pressure. Pressure over UK 1020mb over most places, less in far west. Low-pressure systems 1005mb SW of Iceland and West of Northern Scotland looking threatening, Winds light, southerly generally.

JMA: High Pressure running from Eastern England though a centre east of Iceland 1030mb into a Greenland High. Pressure over UK 1020mb in East less in west, A low-pressure systems 1010mb SW of Iceland, with thundery lows threatening SW parts of UK. Winds light, southerly in East variable elsewhere.

GEM: Northern UK part of High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb and linked to Greenland ridge. Low Pressure off SW UK 1015mb. Pressure over UK 1020+mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light SE over most parts.

T+120 (to Thursday 20th July)

GFS: High Pressure now off eastern England but the High pressure still running though a centre NE of Iceland 1030mb into a Greenland High. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb in most spots, less in SW. The 2 joined low-pressure systems 1005-1010mb SW of Iceland, with breakaway joined cell over SW parts of UK 1015mb. UK. Winds light and variable.

UKMO: High Pressure for Azores 1025mb, and for area around Northern Norway 1030mb. Low-pressure system 1015mb SW of Iceland. And 2 weak low pressure cells around UK 1015mb. Winds light with unsettled conditions for Southern UK and possibly N Ireland.

With The UK in between and a very weak less pressure cell over Northern Ireland 1015mb. Very messy picture indeed with light variable winds over UK.

ECMWF: Northern UK part of High Pressure centred over Iceland 1030mb covering much of Gin area. Low Pressure 1010mb well west of UK, with weak Lower Pressure over SW UK. Pressure over UK 1020mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light E/SE over most parts.

NOGAPS: Eastern England under High Pressure running from Italy into Northern Norway with 1020mb for most of UK, pressure less for western area of UK. Low-pressure system 1010mb SW of Iceland and West of Northern Scotland looking threatening, with additional risk of thundery breakdown for SW UK, Winds light, southerly generally.

JMA: High Pressure just over NE England but the High pressure still running though a centre NE of Iceland 1030mb into a Greenland High. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb in most spots. A low-pressure system 1010mb SW of Iceland west of Scotland, and low-pressure systems threatening SW parts of UK. Winds South in East, variable elsewhere.

GEM: Northern UK part of High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb and linked to Greenland ridge. Low Pressure over SW UK 1015mb. Pressure over UK 1020+mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light SE over most parts. Very similar to T+96

T+144 (to Friday 21st July)

GFS: High Pressure now off Northern Scotland, centred NE of Iceland, 1025mb still linked with Greenland High. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb in most spots, less in SW. 2 joined low-pressure systems 1010mb SW of Iceland, unclear position over UK, with probably unsettled conditions for Central UK, ridge of HP over the far North and south should keep things more settled there. Winds light and variable.

UKMO: High Pressure for Azores 1025mb, and for area around Northern Norway 1030mb. Low-pressure system 1015mb over western UK. Winds light with unsettled conditions for Western UK and possibly N Ireland.

ECMWF: Northern UK part of High Pressure north of Scotland 1025mb and joined to Greenland High. Low Pressure 1005mb well west of UK, with weak Lower Pressure over Northern France . Pressure over UK 1020+mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light E/SE over most parts.

NOGAPS: High Pressure for Azores 1025mb, and for area from Northern Norway 1025mb. Low-pressure system 1000mb W of Iceland. With The UK in between and a very weak less pressure cell over Northern Ireland 1015mb. Very messy picture indeed with light variable winds over UK.

JMA: High Pressure ridging back into NE England but the High pressure still running though a centre NE of Iceland 1030mb into a Greenland High 1035mb. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb in most spots. A low-pressure system 1010mb west of Southern UK, and low-pressure systems threatening SW parts of UK. Winds South in East, variable elsewhere.

GEM: Northern UK part of High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb and linked to Greenland ridge. Low Pressure in W now died out. Pressure over UK 1020+mb in Scotland, 1015mb in SW parts. Winds light E over most parts.

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+96 (to Thursday 19th July)

GFS: Weak Low Pressure over UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions and a possible thundery breakdown, with another low S of Iceland 1005mb, High Pressure over GIN area centred north of Scotland 1025mb. Variable winds over UK and mainly light.

UKMO: Weak Low Pressure over UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions and a possible thundery breakdown, as part of more general low pressure S of Iceland 1010mb, Weak area of High Pressure over GIN area centred north of Scotland 1025mb. Variable winds over UK and mainly light.

ECMWF: Low Pressure over UK 1010mb giving unsettled conditions and a possible thundery breakdown, as part of main low S of Iceland 1005mb, High Pressure generally over GIN area, NE of Scotland 1025mb. Variable winds over UK and mainly light.

NOGAPS: Weak Low Pressure over UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions and a possible thundery breakdown, as part of more general low pressure S of Iceland 1005mb, Weak area of High Pressure over GIN area centred north of Scotland 1025mb. Variable winds over UK and mainly light.

JMA: UK in between weather systems with Low Pressure 1005mb SW of Iceland edging into NW Scotland. High Pressure in GIN area 1025mb north of Scotland, 1030mb over Greenland, and Azores high trying to ridge into SW UK.

GEM: Low Pressure over UK 1010mb giving unsettled condition and possibly thundery breakdown. High Pressure in Azores 1025mb and Scandinavia 1025mb. Winds light to moderate and largely SW, maybe SW in far South.

T+120 (to Friday 21st July)

GFS: Weak Low Pressure over UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions and a possible thundery breakdown, with another low S of Iceland 1005mb, High Pressure ridge GIN area braking down 1020mb, but 1025mb Greenland High. Winds generally southerly origin over UK and mainly light.

UKMO: Very small ridge of High Pressure into SW UK from Azores High 1020mb over SW UK. Pressure over UK 1015mb elsewhere, with a low S of Iceland 1010mb, Weak area of High Pressure over GIN area 1020mb. Winds generally variable over UK and mainly light.

ECM: Weak Low Pressure over Northern UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions over much of UK and a possible thundery breakdown, as part of main low SW of Iceland 1005mb. Elsewhere messy with UK having light and variable winds.

NOGAPS: Very small ridge of High Pressure into SW UK from Azores High 1020mb over SW UK. Pressure over Northern UK 1015mb, part of main low S of Iceland 1010mb, Weak area of High Pressure over GIN area 1020mb, 1025mb over Greenland. Winds generally SW over UK and mainly light.

JMA: UK in between weather systems with Low Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland. High Pressure in GIN area 1025mb, and Azores high ridging into SW UK. Weak Low Pressure in Northern UK, maybe thundery breakdown. Winds light and variable.

GEM: Low Pressure over UK 1015mb now mainly for Northern parts and dying out. High Pressure in Azores 1025mb and dying out in Scandinavia 1020mb. Winds light and variable.

T+144 (to Saturday 22nd July)

GFS: The 1005mb low pressure S of Iceland edging into to far Western parts of UK. High Pressure pushed in Northern ridge GIN area braking down 1025mb. Winds variable mainly light. Pressure over UK generally 1015mb.

UKMO: Pressure over UK around 1020mb, with a low S of Iceland 1005mb trying to edge into the far West. Winds generally variable over UK and mainly light in a very messy overall picture.

ECM: Weak Low Pressure over Northern UK 1015mb giving unsettled conditions here, as part of main low S of Iceland 1005mb. Ridge from Azores into SW giving 1020mb pressure. Winds generally SW and light.

NOGAPS: Main Low now moved S of Iceland and west of Scotland, with SW winds over all UK and giving unsettled conditions for all parts. Pressure 1005mb in NW, over 1015mb in South East. High Pressure in Gin area 1025mb, and Azores High ridging into Northern France.

JMA: Azores high ridging into much of Southern UK 1020mb, with Low Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland static. High Pressure in GIN area building to 1030mb, and Winds light and SW generally.

GEM: Low Pressure over UK 1015mb now mainly for Southern parts and dying out. High Pressure in Azores 1025mb. Messy charts elsewhere, with winds over UK light and variable.

Summary - Some sort of breakdown seems likely on Thursday, but there are big difference what follows with some going for the return of the Azores High, and others going for more unsettled weather.

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T+96 (to Friday 21st July)

GFS: Azores High ridging up over most of UK 1020mb. Keeping low Pressure 1010mb South of Iceland away from UK, Pressure over Scotland 1015+mb. No other threats to UK, winds NW and light generally.

UKMO: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Keeping low Pressure 1005mb South of Iceland away from UK but still a threat. Pressure over Scotland 1015+mb, with more high Pressure North of Scotland 1020mb. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally.

ECMWF: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Keeping low Pressure 1005mb SW of Iceland away from UK, Pressure over Scotland 1015+mb, but small High pressure North of Scotland 1020mb. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally.

NOGAPS: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Keeping low Pressure 1005mb South of Iceland away from UK, Pressure over Scotland 1015+mb, with area of High Pressure North of Scotland 1020mb. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally.

JMA: Azores high ridging up over UK 1020mb with high-pressure all way to Gin area. Keeping weak low Pressure 1010mb South of Iceland away from UK, Settled conditions over UK, winds variable and light generally.

GEM: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Area of Low Pressure centred west of UK 1005mb, giving 1015mb pressure for Scotland and possible unsettled conditions here. No other threats to UK, winds W/SW and light generally.

T+120 (to Saturday 22nd July)

GFS: Azores High ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb, with very small and weak High Pressure 1020mb North of Scotland. Low Pressure 1010mb still South of Iceland away from UK, maybe slightly unsettled over Scotland, but generally settled with light and variable winds. No other threats to UK, winds NW and light generally.

ECM: Azores high ridging up through UK all the way up to Greenland High 1020mb, with 1020mb Pressure generally. Keeping low Pressure 1010mb South of Iceland away from UK, Weak Low Pressure in SE England could give unsettled conditions. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally.

UKMO Azores High ridging up over UK 1020mb. Low Pressure 1005mb still South of Iceland, but generally settled with light and variable winds.

NOGAPS: Azores High ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb, with very small and weak High Pressure 1020mb North of Scotland. Low Pressure 1005mb still South of Iceland but fringing West of UK. No other threats to UK, winds SW and light generally.

JMA: High Pressure over UK deepening to 1025mb giving settled conditions, with high pressure all way to Gin area. Keeping low Pressure 1005mb South of Iceland away from UK, Settled conditions over UK, winds SW in North, NE in South.

GEM: Azores high ridging up over most of UK 1020mb. 1005 Low Pressure to West edging in which could give unsettled conditions for far North and West 1015mb pressure here. No other threats to UK, winds SW and light generally.

T+144 (to Sunday 23rd July)

GFS: High Pressure building over all of UK with 1020mb+ for all UK, giving settled conditions. Low Pressure 1010mb still South of Iceland away from UK, but generally settled with light and variable winds.

UKMO: High Pressure building over all of UK with 1020mb+ for all UK, but Low Pressure 1010mb still South of Iceland and threatening with weak low pressure in Southern UK which could give unsettled conditions, light and variable winds generally across UK.

ECM: Azores high ridging up through Southern UK 1020mb, with High Pressure North of Scotland 1020mb. Weak Low Pressure in Scotland 1015mb. Low Pressure 1010mb moving SW of Iceland and dying out. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally.

NOGAPS: High Pressure over SE 1020mb, lower pressure elsewhere with Low Pressure 1005mb still South of Iceland fringing into NW parts 1015mb giving unsettled conditions. Winds light and SW generally.

JMA: High Pressure over UK deepening to 1025+mb giving settled conditions, with high-pressure ridge all way to Gin area. Keeping low Pressure 1005mb South of Iceland away from UK, Settled conditions over UK, winds SW in North, NE in South.

GEM: 1005mb Low Pressure to West edging in feeding in SW winds and unsettled conditions for NW 1015mb here. Further south a ridge of High Pressure from Azores running north of Norway giving more settled conditions, 1020mb pressure.

Summary - Much better agreement tonight with the Ridge from the Azores High, with the uncertainty then being the easterly progress of the low south of Iceland, with current indications that this should stay out west.

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18th July Model Charts

T+96 (to Saturday 22nd July)

GFS: Azores High ridge close to SW parts 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland, twin centred 1010mb, not too far away for Western UK. Small pockets of 1020mb Pressure over UK, 1015mb –1020mb generally. Winds light and variable.

UKMO: Azores High ridge close to SW parts 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland 1010mb, and effecting N Ireland. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable, but southerly in west.

ECMWF: Azores High ridge close to SW parts 1020mb. Twin Centred Low Pressure South of Iceland 1010mb, and effecting N Ireland. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Also small low Pressure east of northern England. Winds light and variable.

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, running from Azores right through to Northern Norway. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb effecting Northern Ireland, Winds light and variable.

GEM: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Ares of Low Pressure centred west of UK 1005mb, giving 1015mb pressure for Scotland and possible unsettled conditions here. No other threats to UK, winds W/SW and light generally.

T+120 (to Sunday 23rd July)

GFS: High Pressure building over UK 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland, twin centred 1010mb, being kept west of UK. Southerly winds in West, N/NE in East.

ECMWF: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, but small low pressure SE England. Low Pressure South of Iceland 1010mb, and one developing SW of Iceland 1010mb not effecting UK. Winds light and variable but Northerly in East.

UKMO: High Pressure cell over Southern UK 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland 1010mb, but well away from UK. No other impacts for UK. Pressure over Northern UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable, but westerly in south.

NOGAPS: No Map Available

JMA: High Pressure building over most of UK 1025mb, running from Azores right through to Northern Norway. Twin Centred Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb now well to the west of the UK, Winds light and variable.

GEM: Azores high ridging up over SE UK 1020mb. Area of Low Pressure centred NW Scotland giving unsettled conditions for much of North and West UK. No other threats to UK, winds SW and light generally.

T+144 (to Monday 24th July)

GFS: High Pressure edging away to east, 1020mb in east, less in west. UK 1020mb Low Pressure SW 1000mb deepening and eastern extent not too far away from NW Scotland. Winds light S/SW generally.

UKMO: High Pressure cell building over UK 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland 1015mb, and SW of Iceland 1010mb, neither effecting UK. Winds SW in North E/NE in South.

ECMWF: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, running from Azores right through to Northern Norway, but weak low pressure over Southern England inside this High. Merged Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb, not effecting UK. Winds light and variable but Southerly in West, N/NE in East.

NOGAPS: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, running from Azores right through to Northern Norway. Deepening Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1000mb, not effecting UK. Winds light and variable but Southerly in West.

JMA: High Pressure building over most of UK 1025mb, running from Azores right through to Northern Norway. Low Pressure S of Iceland 1015mb now well to the west of the UK, Winds light and southerly in many parts.

GEM: High Pressure now pushed away to the East, Low Pressure over Northern Britain dying out. Pressure Southern UK 1015-10020mb. Winds variable and light generally.

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T+96 (to Sunday 23rd July)

GFS: High Pressure building over Southern UK 1020mb. Weak Low Pressure centred South of Iceland 1015mb effecting parts of Scotland giving unsettled conditions, winds Light and South Westerly.

UKMO: Small Areas of High Pressures 1020mb around UK to the N, NW and S. Low Pressure way SW of Iceland 1005mb, but not effecting UK. Pressure over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable.

ECM : Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb and High Pressure edging into Northern Scotland 1020mb, with low pressure over Central areas. Area of Low Pressure centred west of UK 1010mb. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: Ridge from Azores High building over Southern UK 1020mb. Low pressure in Scotland 1015mb. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb well away from UK, Variable light winds for UK.

GEM: Azores high ridging up over Southern UK 1020mb. Low Pressure South of Iceland 1010mb, not effecting UK. Pressure elsewhere over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable.

T+120 (to Monday 24th July)

GFS: High Pressure building over Southern UK 1020mb. Low Pressure South/SW of Iceland, twin centred 1010-1015mb, being kept west of UK. Pressure in Northern UK 1015-1020mb, winds variable and light.

UKMO: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, but small low pressures embedded within it in SE England. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb not effecting UK. Winds light, easterly in South, SW in North.

ECM : Azores high ridging up all to way to Iceland giving High Pressure over 1020mb for whole of UK, but with embedded low pressure for Southern England.

Twin Centred Area of Low Pressure centred SW of Iceland 1005mb. No other threats to UK, winds variable and light generally

NOGAPS: High Pressure building over UK 1020mb. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb close to Western UK. Winds light and variable but Southerly in West.

JMA: Ridge from Azores High building over all of UK 1020mb. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb well away from UK, Variable light winds for UK.

GEM: Ridge from Azores High building over all of UK 1020mb. Low Pressure S of Iceland 1015mb well away from UK, Variable light winds for UK.

T+144 (to Tuesday 25th July)

GFS: High Pressure over Eastern UK 1020mb, Pressure 1015-1020mb elsewhere.

Low Pressure to the SW Of Iceland deepening to 1000mb but moving westwards but eastern extent still not too far away from NW Scotland. Winds light S/SE generally.

UKMO: High Pressure building over most of UK 1020mb, but 1025mb in North. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb not effecting UK. Winds light, South Easterly in most places.

ECMWF: Not Available

NOGAPS: High Pressure over Eastern UK 1020mb, Pressure 1015-1020mb elsewhere.1010mb Low Pressure to the S Of Iceland with eastern extent still not too far away from Western UK. Winds light S/SE generally.

JMA: High building over all of UK 1020mb, 1025 in North and this is now part of major high covering much of GIN areas, 1030mb over Greenland. Twin Centred Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb well away from UK, Variable light winds for UK.

GEM: High building over all of UK 1020mb and this is now part of major high running into Eastern GIN area. Twin Centred Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb well away from UK, Variable light winds for UK.

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T+96 (to Monday 24th July)

GFS: High Pressure over SE UK 1020mb. High Pressure over GIN area with low pressure in Scandinavia and the South and West of Iceland and effecting NW Scotland, winds Light and South Westerly generally.

UKMO: Large Area of High Pressure 1020mb covering UK and giving settled conditions. Low Pressure 1010mb to West of Southern UK. Winds Light and variable.

ECM :

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: High pressure running all the way from northern Norway to the Azores over much if the UK except Scotland. 1020mb pressure, 1015-1020mb over Scotland. Low Pressure 1015mb well to the west of Southern UK. Winds light and variable.

GEM: High Pressure over Southern UK and to the North of Scotland 1020mb. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb, to the west of Southern UK. Pressure elsewhere over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable.

T+120 (to Tuesday 25th July)

GFS: High Pressure centred North of Scotland building over many eastern parts of UK, but generally settled, Pressure in East 1020mb, between 1015-1020mb in West. Low 1005mb well off SW coast of UK. Winds SE generally and light.

UKMO: Large Area of High Pressure 1020mb covering UK except far South and giving settled conditions for all. Low Pressure 1010mb to West of Southern UK and 1015mb in Central France. Winds Light and South Westerly in South.

ECM :

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: High pressure running all the way from northern Norway TO France and covering all of UK giving settled conditions and 1020mb pressure. With a 1010mb low pressure west of Iceland Winds light and variable.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb building over UK with UK pressure 1020mb+. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb, to the west of Southern UK. Pressure elsewhere over UK 1015-1020mb generally. Winds light and variable.

T+144 (to Wednesday 26th July)

GFS: 1025mb High Pressure centred North of Scotland giving 1020mb pressure for East, but below 1015mb in west and South West. Low Pressure 1000mb SW of Iceland. Winds SE generally and light.

UKMO: Large Area of High Pressure pushing north but still covering northern UK 1020mb. Lower Pressure to SW less than 1015mb, with risk of unsettled conditions, with weak low pressure over France and nearby in the Atlantic. Winds Light and South Easterly.

ECMWF:

NOGAPS: Large Area of High Pressure 1025mb centred over Iceland with Low Pressure SW of UK 1005mb. Higher Pressure in Northern UK and mainly settled 1020 in far North, lower pressure and unsettled conditions in the SW, 1010-1015mb. Winds E/SE over UK and light.

JMA: High pressure centred north of Norway 1025mb covering UK and giving settled conditions and 1020mb pressure. With a 1010mb low pressure SW of Iceland Winds light and variable.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb building over UK with UK pressure 1020mb+, 1025 in N Scotland. Low Pressure W of Iceland 1000mb, other low pressures W and SW of the UK. Winds light and South Easterly

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T+96 (to Tuesday 25th July)

GFS: In a complete chance to yesterday’s GFS forecast, it now is forecasting a low pressure system over Northern and Western UK, giving unsettled weather here, with 1010-1015mb pressure in these parts, over 1015mb in the South and East, where it should be more settled. Winds light and variable in an otherwise messy chart.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Twin Low Pressure west of N Scotland and SW England threatening unsettled conditions with weak high pressure in North Sea. Winds light and variable.

ECM: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb and 1015mb SW of England. Winds light and variable.

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. 3 Low Pressures to West or South West of UK (1005-1010mb) looking threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1020mb, pressure over Central and Northern areas 1015-1020mb, lower in the far SW, as part of a low pressure system which could give unsettled conditions. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb, Winds light and variable.

T+120 (to Wednesday 26th July)

GFS: The low pressure system over Northern and Western UK 1010mb will continue giving unsettled weather here. The rest of the UK and indeed all of the surrounds of the UK will have sub 1015mb pressure. 1000mb Low Pressure SW of Iceland. Winds light and variable in an otherwise messy chart.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Low Pressure west of N Scotland Deepened to 1010mb threatening unsettled conditions. Vigorous Low Pressure 995mb SW of Iceland well west of UK but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and variable over UK.

ECM : Low Pressure into Southern UK 1010-1015mb pressure, slightly more settled for central and northern parts, 1015-1020mb. High-pressure North of Scotland, Vigorous Low Pressure 990mb W of Iceland but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and easterly over UK.

NOGAPS: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. 2 Low Pressures, one to south West of UK 1010mb, and one SW of Iceland 990 mb looking very threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure has amalgamated into 1 Deep 990mb Low Pressure to South West of Iceland looking very threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1020mb, pressure over NE areas 1015-1020mb, lower elsewhere. The Low Pressure system from SW Iceland has moved East to S of Iceland and deepened to 1000mb and is now threatening Western areas, Winds light and SE in most parts.

T+144 (to Thursday 27th July)

GFS: The low pressure system over Northern and Western UK will deepen to 1005mb and join with the LOW SW of Iceland to give a low pressure system covering much of the Atlantic. The rest of the UK will have sub 1015mb pressure. There could be very unsettled weather for Scotland and some unsettled weather elsewhere, winds light and westerly generally, stronger in Scotland.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK fallen to 1010-1015mb ahead of Vigorous Low Pressure 995mb SW of Iceland moving East but still well west of UK but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and SW over UK.

ECM : Low Pressure into Central UK 1010-1015mb pressure, slightly more settled for elsewhere, 1015-1020mb. High-pressure North of Scotland Gin area and Azores attempting to squeeze Vigorous Low Pressure W of Iceland, now 995 mb not moving and weakening. Winds light and easterly over UK. Note this is nothing like any of the other models in terms of the evolution of the low pressure.

NOGAPS: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure still SW of Iceland now 995 mb looking very threatening nut slow moving. Winds light and E/SE over most parts.

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure seems to have stalled running into High pressure and weakened to 995mb still SW of Iceland but much less tight isobars still looking threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb moving north, pressure over NE areas 1015-1020mb lower elsewhere. The Low Pressure system from SW Iceland has moved East to S of Iceland weakening slightly to 1005mb and is now effecting N Ireland, Wales and SW England giving unsettled conditions, Winds light or moderate and SE in most parts.

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
T+96 (to Tuesday 25th July)

GFS: In a complete chance to yesterday’s GFS forecast, it now is forecasting a low pressure system over Northern and Western UK, giving unsettled weather here, with 1010-1015mb pressure in these parts, over 1015mb in the South and East, where it should be more settled. Winds light and variable in an otherwise messy chart.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Twin Low Pressure west of N Scotland and SW England threatening unsettled conditions with weak high pressure in North Sea. Winds light and variable.

ECM: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1005mb and 1015mb SW of England. Winds light and variable.

NOGAPS: NO Map Available

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. 3 Low Pressures to West or South West of UK (1005-1010mb) looking threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1020mb, pressure over Central and Northern areas 1015-1020mb, lower in the far SW, as part of a low pressure system which could give unsettled conditions. Low Pressure SW of Iceland 1010mb, Winds light and variable.

T+120 (to Wednesday 26th July)

GFS: The low pressure system over Northern and Western UK 1010mb will continue giving unsettled weather here. The rest of the UK and indeed all of the surrounds of the UK will have sub 1015mb pressure. 1000mb Low Pressure SW of Iceland. Winds light and variable in an otherwise messy chart.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK 1015-1020mb, Low Pressure west of N Scotland Deepened to 1010mb threatening unsettled conditions. Vigorous Low Pressure 995mb SW of Iceland well west of UK but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and variable over UK.

ECM : Low Pressure into Southern UK 1010-1015mb pressure, slightly more settled for central and northern parts, 1015-1020mb. High-pressure North of Scotland, Vigorous Low Pressure 990mb W of Iceland but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and easterly over UK.

NOGAPS: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. 2 Low Pressures, one to south West of UK 1010mb, and one SW of Iceland 990 mb looking very threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure has amalgamated into 1 Deep 990mb Low Pressure to South West of Iceland looking very threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1020mb, pressure over NE areas 1015-1020mb, lower elsewhere. The Low Pressure system from SW Iceland has moved East to S of Iceland and deepened to 1000mb and is now threatening Western areas, Winds light and SE in most parts.

T+144 (to Thursday 27th July)

GFS: The low pressure system over Northern and Western UK will deepen to 1005mb and join with the LOW SW of Iceland to give a low pressure system covering much of the Atlantic. The rest of the UK will have sub 1015mb pressure. There could be very unsettled weather for Scotland and some unsettled weather elsewhere, winds light and westerly generally, stronger in Scotland.

UKMO: Pressure for all UK fallen to 1010-1015mb ahead of Vigorous Low Pressure 995mb SW of Iceland moving East but still well west of UK but looking very threatening indeed. Winds light and SW over UK.

ECM : Low Pressure into Central UK 1010-1015mb pressure, slightly more settled for elsewhere, 1015-1020mb. High-pressure North of Scotland Gin area and Azores attempting to squeeze Vigorous Low Pressure W of Iceland, now 995 mb not moving and weakening. Winds light and easterly over UK. Note this is nothing like any of the other models in terms of the evolution of the low pressure.

NOGAPS: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure still SW of Iceland now 995 mb looking very threatening nut slow moving. Winds light and E/SE over most parts.

JMA: High-pressure over Scotland and NE England 1020mb, 1015-1020mb over rest of UK. Low Pressure seems to have stalled running into High pressure and weakened to 995mb still SW of Iceland but much less tight isobars still looking threatening. Winds light and SE over most parts.

GEM: High Pressure centred North of Scotland 1025mb moving north, pressure over NE areas 1015-1020mb lower elsewhere. The Low Pressure system from SW Iceland has moved East to S of Iceland weakening slightly to 1005mb and is now effecting N Ireland, Wales and SW England giving unsettled conditions, Winds light or moderate and SE in most parts.

I really do find this interesting. Have you got any kind of interim evaluation of the project? How well are the different models doing? Sorry if I've missed it! ;)

Paul

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Hi Paul

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...8553&st=120 is where the figures are being kept but I'm only up until July 12th, over this weekend I will probably update the figures a bit more time permitting, but Ian may decide to change the figures when he comes back.

The movement of the models is strange with today there being a big change far more than any recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Hi Paul

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...8553&st=120 is where the figures are being kept but I'm only up until July 12th, over this weekend I will probably update the figures a bit more time permitting, but Ian may decide to change the figures when he comes back.

The movement of the models is strange with today there being a big change far more than any recently.

Thanks Jack. I take it the scores out of 10, by which the models are judged, are subjective? Doesn't really matter, if the same person does the judging each time.

Paul

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T+96 (to Wednesday 26th July)

GFS: A messy chart with 1015mb pressure around the UK, with weak low pressure and high pressures nearby. 990mb Low Pressure is SW of Iceland, with a 1020mb High Pressure over Greenland.

UKMO: A Low Pressure system 985mb is SW of Iceland. Pressure around the UK is 1015mn with light and variable winds.

ECM: A Low Pressure system 990mb is SW of Iceland. There is a weak low pressure over Northern UK with 1010-1015mb pressure here, higher than 1015mb in the South. Winds light and variable.

NOGAPS: A Low Pressure system 990mb is SW of Iceland. There is a weak low pressure over Northern UK with 1010-1015mb pressure here, higher than 1015mb in the South. Winds light and variable. High Pressure in Eastern GIN 1020mb.

JMA: A Slack Low Pressure system 1000mb is SW of Iceland. There is a weak low pressure over Southern UK with 1010-1015 pressure over the UK. Winds light and variable. High Pressure 1020mb North of Scotland.

GEM: A Low Pressure system 990mb is SW of Iceland. There is a weak low pressure over Southern UK with 1010-1015 pressure over the UK. Winds light and variable.

T+120 (to Thursday 27th July)

GFS: A messy chart with 1015mb pressure around the UK, with weak low pressure and high pressures nearby. 985mb Low Pressure is SW of Iceland is deepening but not moving, with a 1025mb High Pressure over Greenland. Winds Light and variable for UK.

UKMO: A weakening Low Pressure system 995mb is SW of Iceland. Pressure around the UK is 1010-1015mb with a weak low pressure over central areas, with light and variable winds.

ECM: A Low Pressure system 995mb is SW of Iceland, with its edge not far from W Scotland. Pressure over much of UK 1010-1015mb, higher in far South, winds light and variable

NOGAPS: A Low Pressure system 995mb is SW of Iceland. There is a weak low pressure over Northern UK with 1010-1015mb pressure here, higher than 1015mb in the South. Winds light and variable. High Pressure in Eastern GIN 1020mb.

JMA: A Slack Low Pressure system 1000mb is W of Iceland. Pressure is building over much of the UK 1015-1020mb in South, over 1020mb in far north, with 1025mb High centred off northern Norway.

GEM: A Low Pressure system 990mb is SW of Iceland. There is 1010-1015mb pressure over the UK. Winds light and variable.

T+144 (to Friday 28th July)

GFS: A messy chart with 1010-1015mb pressure around the UK. 995mb Low Pressure is SW of Iceland and weakening but not moving, with a 1025mb High Pressure over Greenland as part of a general GIN high. Winds Light and variable for UK.

UKMO: A weakening Low Pressure system 1000mb is SW of Iceland. Pressure around the UK is 1010-1015mb with light and variable winds.

ECM: A Low Pressure system 990mb is SW of Iceland, with its edge not far from N Scotland. Pressure over much of UK 1010-1015mb, winds light and variable

NOGAPS: A Low Pressure system 995mb is W of Iceland. A ridge of weak high pressure over much f UK giving pressure 1015-1020mb, lower in N Scotland. Winds light and variable. High Pressure in Eastern GIN 1020mb.

JMA: A Slack Low Pressure system 1000mb is W of Iceland. with a 1030mb High Pressure over Greenland as part of a general GIN high. Pressure over UK 1010-1015mb, with low pressure close to SE and SE UK. Winds light and variable.

GEM: A Low Pressure system 995mb is S of Iceland and effecting the weather for western UK giving unsettled conditions and SW winds. Pressure over UK 1000-1005 in west, 1015 in South East.

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