Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Yes I see where you're coming from, but the sheer size and location of the couplet formed across the cold anomaly off the eastern Seaboard, the cold extratropical band and the warm northern anomaly is likely to overwhelm any impact of anomalies close to Greenland.

I have come across research suggesting SSTA in the extra tropics to be far more potent in terms of their impact on Rossby Waves compared to those in high latitudes, something I would tend to endorse.

One also has to consider where the jet will be placed in such as set up. At present, the weak La Nina event allied to the strongly -ve NAO developing teleconnects to low pressure over Iberia and the western Atlantic, with the warm anomaly favouring mean positive height anomalies towards Iceland and NE Canada, something like this but with pressure higher over the UK ....

So I would suggest mean April / May jet flow to be totally deflected southwards of the UK with lows desperately trying to edge in from the SW but never quite making it and a generally north to NW'ly flow setting up.

GP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

While i agree that sea surface temperatures in the southern Atlantic are more powerful than those at high lattitudes due to the warmer sea temperatures favouring a more zonal Jet Stream, in this case to the south, the dominant easterlies in the region of Greenland would increase the chances of cooling, therefore favouring a stronger northern Jet Stream past the middle of May, and the mere fact that the anomolies are present, indicates the presence of a northern Jet Stream, idicating a increased chance of a toppler and certainly no chance of a sustained easterly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

SB

Slightly puzzled about this northly Jet stream. At the present time the charts don't indicate a northly Jet Stream or are you infering that one will develop in the near future??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
SB

Slightly puzzled about this northly Jet stream. At the present time the charts don't indicate a northly Jet Stream or are you infering that one will develop in the near future??

Sea surface temperatures have a one month time lag before they effect synoptics, therefore we should see the northerly Jet Stream beggining to rev up in around three weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
While i agree that sea surface temperatures in the southern Atlantic are more powerful than those at high lattitudes due to the warmer sea temperatures favouring a more zonal Jet Stream, in this case to the south, the dominant easterlies in the region of Greenland would increase the chances of cooling, therefore favouring a stronger northern Jet Stream past the middle of May, and the mere fact that the anomolies are present, indicates the presence of a northern Jet Stream, idicating a increased chance of a toppler and certainly no chance of a sustained easterly.

GP is not suggesting an easterly though SB. The signals and forecast GP is projecting is very feasible, however, you put forward a good argument and indeed we might see HP settle over the UK. HP over us would produce warm days and cold nights with no 'hot' periods but a slightly above CET. In fact that would probably generally agree with my Spring forecast...but no 'Atlantic' dominance either way :mellow: I do see the GHP being ever present again this year and I suppose all will depend whether the HP to our west or over us retrogrades to GHP or not.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Todays SSTA plot continues a recent trend for upwelling of cold water off the western USA from Washington down to California:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060312.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060326.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060402.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

This is hugely significant in terms of influencing our weather as it sets up a probable big amplification of the Jet, its effects likely to be felt by the UK into early May.

Cold anomalies off the western USA set up a large mean trough into the western USA with a pronounced downstream ridge over the Central Plains. With cold pooling off the Gulf Coast and a -ve NAO in place, high pressure will dominate to the west of Greenland and a large mean trough will form over the eastern USA and into the western Atlantic.

A large downstream ridge will develop mid-Atlantic, which, with blocking over Greenland, will result in a northerly airflow for the UK, particularly with a cold SSTA to the north of Scandinavia.

The location of the ridge will be crucial in dictating just how cool things will get, but I would suggest that the first half of May will be very cool, perhaps even one of coldest this Century, coming on the back of a decidely interesting start to the month from the deepest NAO reading I've recorded thus far in late March.

Not great for the garden at all, so don't be lured into putting those bedding plants out just yet. Still, if it gives days like this with crisp, clean air and plenty of sunshine feeling warm out of the wind, not too bad IMO.

GP

Edited by Glacier Point
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I will be astonished if we get a warmer then average summer. In my opinion it's going to be very cool and wet. Temperatures at least a degree below average. Coolest since 1988 I reckon.

It's not often we get cool summers.

During June 1972, there was a large expanse of below average SSTs between Newfoundland and the UK. It comes as no surprise that June 1972 was the second coldest June ever recorded. Indeed, the rest of the summerof 1972, SST between the UK and Newfoundland were below average and the summer was distictly cool

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glacier Point, while the current sea surface temperature anomolies do favour a northerly, the extrotropical banding has dissapered and the sea to the west of Spain is now above average indiacating a northward ridging Azores High and as a result i expect a northerly toppler followed by subsiquent ridging into Europe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

In regards to the sea surface temperatures, they now show a remarkable similarity to those of 1995, so i would like to say spot the difference.

sst_anom.gif

post-1806-1144247774.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just an update, we are still looking at the Azores High ridging ito Europe during early May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
Just an update, we are still looking at the Azores High ridging ito Europe during early May.

Hi SB,

Which year? :D

Sleet here in Dublin tonight and 2.5C.

The weather here is getting colder than the cold of late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, early May is looking interesting to say the least with signs of both the Azores and Greenland High's ridging towards us, however i believe that low pressure will anchor itself to the south of Greenland, because of this i would favour a pattern of a northerly toppler followed by Azores ridging.

Nobody can deny the similarity to the chart from 1995.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

It looks like la nina is picking up again in region 1 (cold pool near south america). As the anomaly in the north Atlantic cools over the next few months , la nina should displace the azores high more westward to give a more negative NAO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
It looks like la nina is picking up again in region 1 (cold pool near south america). As the anomaly in the north Atlantic cools over the next few months , la nina should displace the azores high more westward to give a more negative NAO.

In the meantime GFS tries to bring in spring on 06Z in FI. So we could see another switch by the GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Having had a look at the sea surface temperature anomoly charts i have created a Jet Stream map.

What the map shows is a predominance of high pressure close to the British Isles, with a south to southwesterly flow and a easterly flow, what this means is that during early May, there may be a short easterly before a south to south westerly flow becomes established, there will be a mean area of high pressure over the British Isles, the first ten days of May will be very sunny and dry and most likely very warm.

The wider picture shows a trough, ridge, trough setup over the Pacific resulting and a trough, ridge setup over the Atlantic resulting in a neutral PNA, with a ridge over the central plains, there will also be a mean area of high pressure over eastern Canada and a mean trough over eastern Greenland.

post-1806-1144707620_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, i am afraid that the latest sea surface temperature chart still indicates a cool spell for the first third of May, with a southerly tracking Jet Stream however there is a possibility that the Azores High may ridge in and force the Jet Stream northward.

My forecast indicates a hot spell during the third week of May, so the charts around the beggining of May could prove interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The current chart indicates a resurgance of the Azores High during the third week of May, the positive anomolies have also formed to the north of Scotland.

Here is a expected Jet Stream chart.

If we compare this years chart with last years chart, this years chart favours the NAO to be very negative as it was last year however last years chart indicated a more northerly and cyclonic May while this years chart indicates a anticyclonic May with a lack of northerlies but no other prevailing wind.

sst_anom-050424.gif

sst_anom.gif

post-1806-1145910638_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
post-1806-1146494524.gifThe latest chart still indicates a continuation of the warm spell right until the 19th May.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
post-1806-1146494524.gifThe latest chart still indicates a continuation of the warm spell right until the 19th May.

SB

I think there is a delay in the SST and pressure set up? Indications I have in my forecast method and what the mid April SST prognosed is LP over Iberia with HP to our northeast. We are likely to see a synoptic setup dreamed of by cold lovers from say next weekend onwards. I think it will keep us in cool spell until the potential se/south winds for last week

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I believe that the delay is around 20 days, my prognosis indicates southerly winds to be dominant during the first two thirds of May aside from a cooler spell between the 5th and 12th May, when winds may veer north easterly for a time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I believe that the delay is around 20 days, my prognosis indicates southerly winds to be dominant during the first two thirds of May aside from a cooler spell between the 5th and 12th May, when winds may veer north easterly for a time.

Sorry for being a bit picky but that is a whole week of cooler easeterlies :) Anyway for the record I warmth won't return before 20th after this weekend so I am going for 2/3 cool.

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

According to the sea surface temperature anomoly chart, there is now tropical banding which should lead to a very negative NAO around the 25th May, while there should be a negative NAO, the setup has the hall marks of a Spanish Plume.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glacier Point, from the chart below, would you agree that the sea surface temperature anomoly chart favours a continuation of the Mid-Atlantic trough and western European ridge senario in a around 20 days time?????

The point of my post however was to ask people for their opinions on the developing cold anomoly between Newfoundland and southern Greenland which seems to be spitting the warm anomoly in the Labrador Sea and the Mid-Atlantic, should the cold anomoly fully split the two warm anomolies, i believe it would favour a Jet Stream track straight into Greenland causing the collapse of the Greenland High and a northerly tracking Jet Stream with the potential for one of the hottest summers on record should the anomoly carry on splitting the two warm anomolies, i have illustrated the sea surface temperature anomoly chart to show my thoughts.

post-1806-1147362884_thumb.png

post-1806-1147363549.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

SB,

couple of points:-

1) First observation is the west Pacific jet showing a reasonably strong WPO;

2) The eastern Pacific cold anomalies favouring a slightly -ve EPO, also favouring bifurcated jet with ridging into Alaska and troughing off California;

3) The strength of the sub-tropical jet - not shown on your diagrams - but a likely key player early Summer;

4) Whether we get a mid-Atlantic trough or ridge will depend solely on the jet pattern over north America. If we get the re-establishment of blocking over eastern Canada then an Azores low would be the call and warm, warm, warm for the UK. However, with the EPO and NAO, possibly AO moving negative, I favour a late May / early June phase of cool showery for the UK.

could this turn around for the end of June - the million dollar question at this stage ?

GP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...