Cooling Down

[Guest Daniel]

I am now growing in confidance that the climate is starting to cool down due to changes in the warm north Atlantic Ocean currents. If the gulf stream has really weakened by 30% then this will have a big effect our our weather patterns. Now nothing happens over night but we now have reached a turning point. Since the maxium warmth we had in the Late 90s and at the turn of this Century we seem to now be starting to cool down. So far this year we have been cool. this is due to much weaker mild south west winds and a much colder Europe. Infact the real mild air this year has never really to a hold over England or Western Euroope and the Atlantic winds seem to be comming more from the west or the north west. Not only that the cold seems to be going on and on. We are now well into march and still there no signs of any real lasting warmth. Now the N.A.O of the atlantic seems to be going into a negative mode problerly caused by heat loss of the gulf. This will mean a much cooler climate year round for us. I expect we will have a cooling of at least 2 degrees in average temps. This will bring us back to little ice age climate of the 17th Century. Our winters would on average become much longer and colder with snowstorms and long periods of deep lying snows and frozen rivers will be common occurence in winter. march will also become a full winter mouth. These colder winters on average will lead to much cooler summers. Heat waves will still happen but they will be less intence and of shorter duration. In recent times our summers have been hotter than the hottiest ones of the little ice age period. The reason for this is down to our mild winters and Springs. this gives a boast to tempertures and that leads to warmer summers with highs building to the south. But colder winters and cooler springs on average will mean colder and wetter summers as the southern highs fail to push north. Now this year I expect a cooler summer or at best average summer. This is due to the cool winter and so far cool start to Spring. Europe is still quite cold and that cold will take time to go away.

[drgl]

i think we've been here a million times but a agree the climate is getting colder again. The fact i have woken up to heavy snow AGAIN backs up what the previous 3-4 years have been doing(gradual cooling-more each year),if this continues for the next two winters i am 100% confident...........

[Bobby]

I think this is just wishful thinking. Last year was the warmest year ever recorded in the Northern hemisphere, and was one of the warmest ever recorded in Britain too. We have had four +10c years in a row. 3-4 average/slightly below average months doesn't single a trend towards an ice age.

[Methuselah]

I entirely agree with Magpie: one cold spell does not a climate cooldown make.

[noggin]

Oooohhh, but it isn't just one cold spell. The last three Winters have been tending towards colder and the last two Summers have not been as intensely hot as 2003.

So what if last year was one of the warmest recorded in the Northern hemisphere? It wasn't the hottest, was it? Summers have not continued to get hotter and hotter over the past couple of years. Ditto for Britain.

I am sure we could argue this until the cows come home. We are all so firm in our opinions. Time will tell. Hindsight is (will be) wonderful!

We must all be careful not to choose the facts to suit the theory and I feel that using "statistics" rather than observations is tending towards doing this.

No offence intended to anyone.

PS The MetO's experimental LRF for late Spring/Summer is only for "cold/average more likely".

Edited March 12, 2006 by noggin

[Guest Mike W]

Sorry but I am with Magpie on this, the only thing I will say is that with 2005 having the annual CET of 10.38 it's not in the top 10 hottest years but it's got to be the top 20 and the fact it's 4 in a row now, with nothing stopping us getting 5 in a row, which will blow the recent record of 4 in row, 2 records cancelling each other out in such a short space of time. The CET series tells it all for me. The main story is lack of those unsavoury chemicals we used to emmit regardless, while still emmiting the warming ones.

[drgl]

Oooohhh, but it isn't just one cold spell. The last three Winters have been tending towards colder and the last two Summers have not been as intensely hot as 2003.

So what if last year was one of the warmest recorded in the Northern hemisphere? It wasn't the hottest, was it? Summers have not continued to get hotter and hotter over the past couple of years. Ditto for Britain.

I am sure we could argue this until the cows come home. We are all so firm in our opinions. Time will tell. Hindsight is (will be) wonderful!

We must all be careful not to choose the facts to suit the theory and I feel that using "statistics" rather than observations is tending towards doing this.

No offence intended to anyone.

PS The MetO's experimental LRF for late Spring/Summer is only for "cold/average more likely".

I think our own experiences constantly fall on deaf ears mate!! Dispite recording more & more snow,more frost,ice day's etc sice 2000 people continue to use stats to say we are warming up. wait & see...............

I think this is just wishful thinking. Last year was the warmest year ever recorded in the Northern hemisphere, and was one of the warmest ever recorded in Britain too. We have had four +10c years in a row. 3-4 average/slightly below average months doesn't single a trend towards an ice age.

(1) My job is outside-snow & ice = no work,i'm self employed so that = nop money!! Wishful thinking?

(2) No one is basing this on just THIS winter-i have recorded more frost,snow and ice day's since approx. 2000-each year has increased more & more. We could argue until we are blue in the face-all i am saying is MY EXPERIENCE say's we are getting more snow & ice in winter. Some on here would argure todays snow & ice is not even in winter!! Only time will tell who is write on this one...........

Today..........

(and we have had day's like that in November,December,January,February & now March. Previous winters have shown the same pattern but this winter has seen an increase yet again. Still miles off what we used to get in the early 80's but much better than most of the late 90's!!

[Anvil Crawler]

I have breifly scanned through Posts and have to agree that 1 cold winter out of the last few does not suggest a cooling trend as yet.We will have to wait for the next few to see how they pan out.

It maybe that winters become cooler and summers become warmer but nobody know's as yet.

[drgl]

I have breifly scanned through Posts and have to agree that 1 cold winter out of the last few does not suggest a cooling trend as yet.We will have to wait for the next few to see how they pan out.

It maybe that winters become cooler and summers become warmer but nobody know's as yet.

But that's my point-i'm NOT saying that.

Edited March 12, 2006 by drgl

[Anvil Crawler]

But that's my point-i'm </B>saying that!!

LOL sorry i then fully agree with what you say.

[drgl]

LOL sorry i then fully agree with what you say.

lol-something went wrong there modified now

[Scribbler]

Hello everybody

I reckon that there are two things that seem to be fixed – whether we like it or not.

1. The temperature of the earth, as a whole, is warming up. For what reason is a matter for another topic.

2. The North Atlantic is having problems, seemingly caused by an increase of fresh water. Again, the cause and outcome are for others to discuss.

The combined results are again twofold.

1. The climate is getting warmer with many parts of the globe beginning to suffer extremes of weather.

2. Parts of the world which are influenced by the North Atlantic are cooling down.

The end result must surely be that we, on the edge of the North Atlantic will suffer – at least for a while – before the overall effect of global warming overcomes the cooling effect of the Ocean.

Our little corner of the world may well cool down – typical of us to be different!

My only question is – how long will the cooling last before the heat overcomes the cold?

[rob5559]

Surely if you believe the NAD slowling down has affected this winter, how come there are warm anomalies in the north alantic where the NAD effects most?

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060312.gif

[Thundery wintry showers]

The recent cold weather does not show a trend away from warmer temperatures. It could just be a blip, and to be honest we are well overdue some below average months, having seen much homogeneous warmth over the past 10 years or so.

What it does show is that cold and, indeed, snowy weather is not yet a thing of the past due to Global Warming, and is not yet at a stage where it is fast approaching such a threshold.

[drgl]

The recent cold weather does not show a trend away from warmer temperatures. It could just be a blip, and to be honest we are well overdue some below average months, having seen much homogeneous warmth over the past 10 years or so.

What it does show is that cold and, indeed, snowy weather is not yet a thing of the past due to Global Warming, and is not yet at a stage where it is fast approaching such a threshold.

No but winters here since 2000 have been stedily increasing in terms of cold,ice & snow. Whatever the figures say that is a fact from personnal experience. That is why after recent events i am much looking forward to this winter coming!!(sad i know but if the pattern continues then as far as i am concerned i know what is happening)

[Methuselah]

Another possibility?

After 20 years' of nearly non-existent winters, we have all become conditioned to expect mild weather? When the weather does get more 'normal', we all start to feel cold; whereas in the 'olden days' we just got on with it...

[drgl]

Another possibility?

After 20 years' of nearly non-existent winters, we have all become conditioned to expect mild weather? When the weather does get more 'normal', we all start to feel cold; whereas in the 'olden days' we just got on with it...

It's not a question of "feeling" cold,ice day's are ice day's,frost is frost and snow is snow! In the early 80's we got much harsher winters-there's no doubt there,the late 80's and early 90's had some good winters but not as much,the mid-late 90's were dire-wet & windy with maybe some wet snow. As i have said until i am blue in the face i have seen the pattern slowly returning to more cold,ice & snow. It's not in my head-i'm fully aware that facts & figures say we are still warming AS A WHOLE. Only time will tell.........

[Scribbler]

Surely if you believe the NAD slowling down has affected this winter, how come there are warm anomalies in the north alantic where the NAD effects most?

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060312.gif

Hi Rob5559

When they did satellite studies of the Gulf Stream as it flowed past the East coast of America, they found that instead of it being the nice smooth stream of water that they had thought it was, it turned out to have myriad ripples, whirls and backwater areas.

Presumably much the same applies to the North Atlantic - perhaps also caused by local effects such as seabed variations and coastal irregularities. I haven't looked into that aspect yet.

[Scribbler]

http://www.terradaily.com – today’s news.

Study Previews Ice Sheet Melting Rapid Climate Change

“The behavior of a massive ice sheet that existed in northern Europe at the end of the last Ice Age has been outlined for the first time, and researchers believe it may provide a sneak preview of how major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will act in the face of global warming.”

“The study, which will be published Friday in the journal Science by researchers from Oregon State University, shows that ice sheets can react quite differently depending on the climatic conditions at the time global warming occurs – sometimes actually growing larger and sometimes rapidly disappearing, depending on whether increased snow offsets melting effects, or not.”

"This study clearly showed that when the climate was warming but still pretty cold, the (studied) ice sheet grew due to increased precipitation that fell as snow, and more than made up for any melting. But at some point the warming became more pronounced, did not offset any increases in snow, and the ice sheet disappeared fairly rapidly."

“Scientists believe those exact forces may both be displayed as the Earth warms due to the greenhouse effect – there may be some increase in the East Antarctic ice sheet, where the climate is much colder, and rapid loss of ice in Greenland.”

Just a thought that this may connect to this topic.

[Guest Daniel]

The recent cold weather does not show a trend away from warmer temperatures. It could just be a blip, and to be honest we are well overdue some below average months, having seen much homogeneous warmth over the past 10 years or so.

What it does show is that cold and, indeed, snowy weather is not yet a thing of the past due to Global Warming, and is not yet at a stage where it is fast approaching such a threshold.

But It could. this year we seen stunning cold and dry in March. In fact in the south at present average day time temps are 5 degrees lower than they should be. this week temps will only be between 3 to 7 Celsius when they should be around 10 to 15 as they are in recent Marchs. The reason for this is an cold dry east wind caused by a large high to the north. This has lead to severe blizzards further north as weaker than normal Atlantic air trys to push in but failing in the process. Now I think the reason for this cold is due to the slowing down of the warm Gulf Stream which was major news last year and now it looks as if its starting to effect us. A slower gulf stream means weaker mild Atlantic winds from the south west which gives us our warmth and rain. Instead this allows stronger highs to foirm to the north us us not a good postion and these cold highs feed in cold air from the north and east. If the cold goes on until the end of this month then this years March might be one of the coldest ever in the U.K. this would have an big effect on the rest of Spring as the cold east wind will keep the north sea colder. Spring grouth is already been set back due to this cold. Now if the Gulf stream continues to slow down and more ice enters the Atlantic than in the next few years we would really see a major cooling over the U.K and Europe which will bring many problems. Of course some may say this is fantacy and one cold march proves nothing but is no more fantacy than thouse who come out and blame every heat wave we get on Global warming.

[John Cox]

But It could. this year we seen stunning cold and dry in March. In fact in the south at present average day time temps are 5 degrees lower than they should be. this week temps will only be between 3 to 7 Celsius when they should be around 10 to 15 as they are in recent Marchs. The reason for this is an cold dry east wind caused by a large high to the north. This has lead to severe blizzards further north as weaker than normal Atlantic air trys to push in but failing in the process. Now I think the reason for this cold is due to the slowing down of the warm Gulf Stream which was major news last year and now it looks as if its starting to effect us. A slower gulf stream means weaker mild Atlantic winds from the south west which gives us our warmth and rain. Instead this allows stronger highs to foirm to the north us us not a good postion and these cold highs feed in cold air from the north and east. If the cold goes on until the end of this month then this years March might be one of the coldest ever in the U.K. this would have an big effect on the rest of Spring as the cold east wind will keep the north sea colder. Spring grouth is already been set back due to this cold. Now if the Gulf stream continues to slow down and more ice enters the Atlantic than in the next few years we would really see a major cooling over the U.K and Europe which will bring many problems. Of course some may say this is fantacy and one cold march proves nothing but is no more fantacy than thouse who come out and blame every heat wave we get on Global warming.

Good man Damien,

I am with you all the way on this.

Look at the effects of the lack of the Atlantic has had this winter.

Time will indeed tell. Interesting the different responses you are getting compared to last year, more postitive I believe.

[Rollo]

Good man Damien,

I am with you all the way on this.

Look at the effects of the lack of the Atlantic has had this winter.

Time will indeed tell. Interesting the different responses you are getting compared to last year, more postitive I believe.

Afternoon John, There are so many if's and but's when it comes to predicting the future weather,you and I agree that perhaps the synoptics are changing but we only have the last year to go by,what we do know is that the thermoline conveyer is weakening and whilst recent events may well back future cold winters I urge caution as I for one have suffered so many disappointments in recent years,regards Mike.

[Stratos Ferric]

Daniel, I always enjoy your rabid posts regarding impending armageddon. I'm afraid that marshalling a few unusually (though far from exceptionally) cold March days is no proof of anything other than a current spell of cold weather. As magpie, TWS, PT and Scribbler various suggest, there is NO evidence to be gleaned from this winter regarding anything. Even in an upward trend there will be cold spells, be it of odd days in a single winter, several days in 2-3 winters, or a week or more in 5 or so winters: that much is simple statisitical variation about a mean.

What can be said, at most, from recent winters, is that the very rapid warming into the late 90s has been arrested, but whether this is the start of a downward trend, or a pause before more upwards movement, is too early to tell (although all the climate models suggest the latter I'm afriad). Those of you citing the last two winters as if they were dramatically cool might care to reflect on the plot below. They were still WARM winters.

[drgl]

i give up.................

[noggin]

....hear, hear, drgl.....there's none so blind as will not see! Ah, well, I've said before that I can't be bothered to argue about it any more, we'll just have to let the future speak for itself.

But, we mustn't come back gloating in 10 years' time....that would be too unkind!

Oh, I don't know though........... :unsure: