Tropical Cyclone Wati

[Mondy]

When WATI followed LARRY Edited March 20, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

monday you beat me i took an hour off

[wolves78]

IDQ20065

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN #1

For 17:00 EST on Monday the 20th of March 2006

At 5pm EST Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 980 hPa, is

located over the far eastern Coral Sea.

Wati is currently at 17.2 degrees south, 159.1 degrees east, which is about

1,400 km east of Cairns.

Wati currently poses no threat to the Queensland coast and is not influencing

Queensland's weather. The cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly

direction over the next day or so and be in the central Coral Sea by Wednesday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65003.gif?1142857661346

Edited March 20, 2006 by wolves78

[Mondy]

[wolves78]

[wolves78]

you can clearly see wati and the leftovers of larry but further west is that another system winding up? i marked it with a question mark

[Mondy]

Yeah, mate. It's 96S: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...1km_bw&PROD=geo

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

CENTRE PERTH AT 1918UTC 20 MARCH 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the

averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION

At 1800UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of

Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S]

Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal four East [116.4E]

Recent movement : west southwest at 4 knots

Maximum winds : 30 knots

Central pressure : 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED

Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24 hours causing

clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0600UTC 21 March: 11.9 south 115.8 east

Central pressure 994 hPa.

Winds to 35 knots near centre.

At 1800UTC 21 March: 12.1 south 115.1 east

Central pressure 990 hPa.

Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0300 UTC 20 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

Edited March 20, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

looking at this sat image looks like its starting to get an eyewall only slight but somethig to look out for

thanks for the link again MTC

Edited March 20, 2006 by wolves78

[Mondy]

Hi. Yeah, this probably sounds wrong and tactless, but it's during these storms/systems, that brings it all back from last years Hurricane threads - they were good viewing:D

I guess these cyclones only help us to will on the hurricane season our end

[wolves78]

Hi. Yeah, this probably sounds wrong and tactless, but it's during these storms/systems, that brings it all back from last years Hurricane threads - they were good viewing:D

I guess these cyclones only help us to will on the hurricane season our end

i agree with you mate warming up for our own season all be it in the us

im going for a hurricane or hurricane winds in the uk mid to l8 october

carnt wait for the season to start again this is just a teaser for us now

this was a pic of delta

and this epsilon just how close were we to summet happening all be it they were l8 in the season

Edited March 20, 2006 by wolves78

[kold weather]

Well I'll keep this breif but Wati is entering a fairly favorable area for strengthening. It's presently got a central pressure of 975mbs and is a cat-2 on the Cyclone Category System. Looking at its track looks like the steering currents are going to send this system very close to where Larry just hit, probably as a cat-3/4 I reckon.

[wolves78]

definatly seems to be gettin closer to land looks a monster ATM

[Aussie Big Ben]

Updates on Wati from BOM. Very interesting, looks like no-one knows what will happen next. It's now moving West-Northwest! Was expected to start turning South, is this just a small move before the turn or a I won't follow your rules move that flies in the face of the predictions? Time will tell I guess.

At 10pm EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 975

hPa, over the central Coral Sea.

Wati is positioned at 10pm near 17.5S 154.1E, which is about 660km northeast of

Mackay. Tropical Cyclone Wati is moving towards the west-northwest at 13 km per

hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati has slowed a little in the last few hours and in is expected to remain slow

moving in offshore waters for the rest of the week. The combination of this

system and a 1028 hPa high in the Tasman Sea is expected to produce strong to

gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and Fraser Island. Large seas will

develop along open waters of the southern and central coasts.

In the longer term the forecast track of Wati will be complicated by the

approach of an upper level system from the west. Depending on the strength of

this upper system Wati will either; be captured and move SE parallel to the

Queensland coast or remain slow moving until the upper system weakens and then

move slowly towards the Queensland coast over the later part of the weekend. The

upper level system and Wati will be closely monitored over the next few days

when the eventual track will be clearer.

The next bulletin will be issued at 5am Wednesday.

This shows the slight jump North. Can't seem to show picture but here is the link.

Wati Track Map

[kold weather]

It may well be that its just wobbling alot, not quite sure why, it may well due to a slight strengthening of the 1028mbs HP cel lto its south-west and therefore may have forced it to take a WNW track for a little while till the HP cell shrinks back a little and allows it to go back onto a more westerly/WSW track again.

To be honest I'm really only guessing as I've got no acess to any real sort of data from the area but when storms wobble in the atlantic its usually because they are feeling the effects of a ridge gettin stronger or weaker but when storms do this, they are so hard to forecasts even for the pros.

It does seem to be getting increasingly organised in a fairly decent enviroment and warm seas and pressure is down to 975mbs, also its definatly getting more organised now on satilite images with a fairly impressive structure, won't be that long before it pops a eye I'd have thought.

[wolves78]

now at cat 3 pressure at 970mbs

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65003.gif?1142967173377

IDQ20066

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 0500 EST on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2006

At 5am EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3 with central

pressure 970 hPa, was centre over the central Coral Sea.

Wati is positioned at 5am near 17.4S 153.7E, which is about 630 km northeast of

Mackay. Tropical Cyclone Wati is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 km per

hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati is expected to remain slow moving in offshore waters for the rest of the

week. The combination of this system and a 1028 hPa high in the Tasman Sea is

expected to produce strong to gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and

Fraser Island. Large seas will develop along open waters of the southern and

central coasts.

The next bulletin will be issued at 11am Wednesday.

Edited March 21, 2006 by wolves78

[summer blizzard]

Using the forecast from the GFS...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnaus.html

And the current sea surface temperatures...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst-060319.gif

(change the 19 to day after relative to today)

Using those sources, i would suggest that Tropical Cyclone Wati will be at least category 3 at landfall due to sea surface temperatures of 30C.

Using the GFS, i expect Tropical Cyclone Wati to wobble in a westerly to north westerly direction until Wednesday evening when i expect a wobble in a westerly to south westerly direction before a movement west through thursday before a movement in a westerly north westerly direction during Friday, i expect landfall on Friday night or saturday morning somewhere between Cairns or Townsville, as i have said before, Tropical Cyclone Wati will be at least category 3 at landfall, i will make a proper strength forecast once i have found a wind sheer map for the area.

cc.bmp

Edited March 21, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Mondy]

Bit of a strange system this one. When it first formed, it looked good (i mean good as in impressively forming). Then he/she kind of declines*, and the track forecasts make it do a u-turn. Now nobody really knows. The BoM don't seem too sure, tbh.

I suspect it won't be long before an eye forms: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

*Wati was named by Fiji and not the BoM. Apparently Wati is a bloke in Fiji, but a women in Oz :unsure:

Surely in this christmas pudding, a cyclone can't be a tranny?? :unsure:

Edited March 21, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

lol monday

cyclone tranny

coming soon to a sea near you

i think the eye will be there in the early hours our time

i think its track will take it in between townsville and mackay

but who knows definatly an interesting storm to watch develope

[wolves78]

they still seem to think wati is going to track south

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_...06.06032212.gif

the eye seems to be forming aswell

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...1537E.100pc.jpg

[wolves78]

97S.INVEST has formed aswell

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

and the latest on 19S.FLOYD

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

also what a sight all 3 tropicalstorms in one image

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00005.200603221330.gif

Edited March 22, 2006 by wolves78

[wolves78]

IDQ20066

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 11pm EST on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2006

At 11pm EST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3, with central

pressure 955 hPa, was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 18.0

south, longitude 153.9 east, which is about 610 km northeast of Mackay. The

cyclone has recently remained almost stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati should remain near stationary over the next 12

hours while maintaining its intensity, and is subsequently most likely to adopt

a general southerly track over the following few days, in response to an upper

trough approaching from the west, and a building mid-level ridge to the east of

the cyclone. Although this is the most likely scenario, there remain some

subtleties in the surrounding flow, and there is a small chance the cyclone may

remain slow-moving, and edge slightly closer to the central Qld coast.

The combination of the cyclone and a large high in the Tasman Sea is expected to

produce strong winds and large seas off the coast between Bowen and Fraser

Island.

The next bulletin will be issued by 5am Thursday.

[wolves78]

IDQ20066

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 0500 EST on Thursday the 23rd of March 2006

At 5am EST Thursday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3, with central

pressure 955 hPa, was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 18.0

south, longitude 154.0 east, which is about 750 km north of Fraser Island. The

cyclone has recently remained almost stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati should now begin a southward track which will be

roughly parallel to the Queensland coast The combination of the cyclone and a

large high in the Tasman Sea is expected to produce gales and large seas off the

southern and Central Coasts.

The next bulletin will be issued by 11am Thursday.

[summer blizzard]

A clear pinhole eye has formed in the north east corner of Tropical Cyclone Wati and with weak sheer to the north, we can expect intensification, i expect intensification of a strong category 4 or weak category 5 Tropical Cyclone.

Edited March 23, 2006 by summer blizzard

[wolves78]

IDQ20066

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 0500 EST on Friday the 24th of March 2006

At 5am EST Thursday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, Category 3, with central

pressure 950 hPa, was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 20.3

south, longitude 157.1 east, which is about 630 km northeast of Sandy Cape on

Fraser Island. Wati has recently been moving to the south southeast at about 14

kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati is expected to maintain a southeastward track,

which is roughly parallel to the Queensland coast, with only slight, if any

weakening in the short term. The combination of the cyclone and a large high in

the Tasman Sea is expected to produce gales and large seas off the Capricornia

and southern Queensland coasts over the next few days.

The next bulletin will be issued by 11 am Friday.

[Mondy]

It's certainly a tease!