What Date For First Gulf Td?

[crimsone]

Well, looking at the NHC site, I see that convection seems to be kicking off, (albeit not so often in favourable areas), there's been a couple of mentions of tropical waves in the last month or two, and the air is starting to aquire more moisture. Nothing's happening yet because of a tendancy for strong subsistance and frontal systems to be crossing the area, but I noticed in yesterdays discussion a mention of pacific tropical moisture over the NE GoM and a surface low expected in the area - again, I doubt very much it'll amount to anything.

According to the NHC reports for last season, the first recorded of the season was TS Arlene in the beginning of June, however, I'm pretty sure there must have been a few TD's before that.

Soooo, when do you guys think we'll see the first TD showing up on the NHC site for the atlantic and for the pacific?

I'm not half as clever as some of you, but I'm going to say around mid april for the atlantic, and about the end of april for the pacific.

[crimsone]

Oh, god. I think I'm loosing the plot.

If this makes no sense, just ignore it. lmao

[kold weather]

NW Pacific has already had two systems, one was just a TD while the other was TS Basyang, or 01W.

The NE Pacific however, I'm not to sure about!

As for the Atlantic basin, indeed things are certainly warming up there now with in terms of the sea temps and there are the odd waves coming off Africa as convection kicks off down there as the ICTZ moves northwards again as summer gets closer.

personally i think we'll have to wait till early July before we get our first named storm in the atlantivc, but who knows, its really just a guessing game, sometimes they come much quicker like 2003, and sometimes they take till August, like 2004.

[summer blizzard]

I think that Tropical Storms will form fairly early this year however not as early as 2003, therefore i will go for late May or early June for the first Tropical Storm and late April for the first Tropical Depression, while the sea surface temperature anomolies are not as warm as this time last year, there is less of a cold anomoly in the Sub-Tropical area of development, therefore we can not rule a early hybrid out from May onward.