Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Latest Arctic Report As Of 31/3/06


carinthian

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Ice cover remains on a par with this time last year,apart from the retention of ice formation this winter in the Gulf of Bothnia. Pack ice covers the Arctic Ocean and the Kara Sea. The Canadian and Siberian sectors show a good cover of sea ice but not all areas are packed. Not much ice to report of in the Denmark Strait between Greenland and Iceland. Any pack ice here being locked into the Greenland Fiords. The recent low temperature in the Barents Sea has failed to produce much sea ice in this area this Spring, although the prevailing NEly winds have pushed some ice flows into the Spitzbergen Bank with Bergy bits being now reported in Jan Mayen waters and as far Southwest as the Irminger Basin. The Aleutian Low is now in a position to return polar air from Siberia back into the Sea of Japan with a return of snowfall to much of highland Japan.

    Deep snow still covers much of Scandinavia, the Baltic states and much of Russia and Siberia. The Arctic high still dominates in a broad swathe from Labrador, Greenland and into Northern Russia with a well established and prolonged negative AO still prevailing. This combination is ripe for a return of cold NEly to affect much of Northern Europe during April. Eventually the high pressure zone will slip south with a return to warmer conditions, but when ?

    Carinthian

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 53
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Ice cover remains on a par with this time last year,apart from the retention of ice formation this winter in the Gulf of Bothnia. Pack ice covers the Arctic Ocean and the Kara Sea. The Canadian and Siberian sectors show a good cover of sea ice but not all areas are packed. Not much ice to report of in the Denmark Strait between Greenland and Iceland. Any pack ice here being locked into the Greenland Fiords. The recent low temperature in the Barents Sea has failed to produce much sea ice in this area this Spring, although the prevailing NEly winds have pushed some ice flows into the Spitzbergen Bank with Bergy bits being now reported in Jan Mayen waters and as far Southwest as the Irminger Basin. The Aleutian Low is now in a position to return polar air from Siberia back into the Sea of Japan with a return of snowfall to much of highland Japan.

    Deep snow still covers much of Scandinavia, the Baltic states and much of Russia and Siberia. The Arctic high still dominates in a broad swathe from Labrador, Greenland and into Northern Russia with a well established and prolonged negative AO still prevailing. This combination is ripe for a return of cold NEly to affect much of Northern Europe during April. Eventually the high pressure zone will slip south with a return to warmer conditions, but when ?

    Carinthian

    hi further to the above report, for those interested in this subject the latest Finnish ice reports for the Baltic sea indicate twice as much sea ice cover compared to this time last year and a general 50% increase in the thickness of the sea sheet. Growth is still occurring as no let up in winter conditions continue to affect this region.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
    hi further to the above report, for those interested in this subject the latest Finnish ice reports for the Baltic sea indicate twice as much sea ice cover compared to this time last year and a general 50% increase in the thickness of the sea sheet. Growth is still occurring as no let up in winter conditions continue to affect this region.

    C

    Thanks for your report and update carinth, interesting to note the increase of 50% of sea ice in the Baltic compared this time last year, quite a turn around as that area was showing a warm anomaly this time last year which lasted all the way through to early winter. The main reason for much less sea ice between Greenland and Iceland this year is almost certainly due to a persistent warm anomaly which drifted in there around December.

    sst_anom.gif

    Interestingly the North Sea is much colder than average this year, it's going to be cold at Skegness this Easter, i certainly wouldn't fancy a dip in that at, 5c :rolleyes:

    Paul

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    remember the logo for Skeggy?

    Skegness is so bracing!!

    I remember it before it had a sea front!!

    John

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London
    remember the logo for Skeggy?

    Skegness is so bracing!!

    I remember it before it had a sea front!!

    John

    Ahh the old LNER advertising slogan from the 1930s [i imagine you remember the LNER!]

    Regards

    ACB

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Thanks for your report and update carinth, interesting to note the increase of 50% of sea ice in the Baltic compared this time last year, quite a turn around as that area was showing a warm anomaly this time last year which lasted all the way through to early winter. The main reason for much less sea ice between Greenland and Iceland this year is almost certainly due to a persistent warm anomaly which drifted in there around December.

    sst_anom.gif

    Interestingly the North Sea is much colder than average this year, it's going to be cold at Skegness this Easter, i certainly wouldn't fancy a dip in that at, 5c :o

    Paul

    Hi Paul, I do remember playing beach cricket in August of the Skeggy sands,but with about 5 sweaters on !

    All that snowfall in Scandinavia has yet to melt and flow into the North Sea. Can now see where the so bracing comes from. Blankets for the donkeys and hot mugs of tea for the sands ! Give me Ibiza anytime.

    C

    Ahh the old LNER advertising slogan from the 1930s [i imagine you remember the LNER!]

    Regards

    ACB

    Perhaps that old salt skipping along the sands with that waterproof fishermans hat on and waving his arms with great delight was are own John Holmes!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    Ahh the old LNER advertising slogan from the 1930s [i imagine you remember the LNER!]

    Regards

    ACB

    I do remember the old LNER but not quite from the 30's, more like the 50's. Funnily enough I do remember going to both Retford and Doncaster(where I now live) to see the Flying Scotsman go through. She was built here of course.

    John

    Hi Paul, I do remember playing beach cricket in August of the Skeggy sands,but with about 5 sweaters on !

    All that snowfall in Scandinavia has yet to melt and flow into the North Sea. Can now see where the so bracing comes from. Blankets for the donkeys and hot mugs of tea for the sands ! Give me Ibiza anytime.

    C

    Perhaps that old salt skipping along the sands with that waterproof fishermans hat on and waving his arms with great delight was are own John Holmes!

    cheeky sod! I were but a lad then.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

    Hi Carinthian,

    Do you think that these high ice levels will have an effect on next winter's climate in this part of Europe if we were to have a continuing cool/cold spring and a not too warm summer?

    I suppose I am looking for signs of a continued/increased colder outlook for next winter.

    Your call on the winter past was very good.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    The longer it takes to melt the better i suppose...

    going back to the anomaly between greenland and canada.. isnt that where there are active vents??

    not sure about this..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    Hi Carinthian,

    Do you think that these high ice levels will have an effect on next winter's climate in this part of Europe if we were to have a continuing cool/cold spring and a not too warm summer?

    I suppose I am looking for signs of a continued/increased colder outlook for next winter.

    Your call on the winter past was very good.

    Hi John, Ive been thinking the same myself. I want a really cold winter next year but I also want a hot summer.........conflicting interests there I think :lol: Anyhow I hope things continue the way they are for now SST wise :o

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Hi Carinthian,

    Do you think that these high ice levels will have an effect on next winter's climate in this part of Europe if we were to have a continuing cool/cold spring and a not too warm summer?

    I suppose I am looking for signs of a continued/increased colder outlook for next winter.

    Your call on the winter past was very good.

    Hello John,

    The volume of ice in the Baltic Sea is relatively small compared to much of the Northern Sea ice sheet. However, this year has produced one of the coldest winters for some time in many of the Baltic states. If you look at the Estonian web -cameras, a lot of deep snow remains on the plains and out into Tallin Bay there remains a lot of ice,

    If you remember last Autumn the SSTs in this region were remarkedly high ( this could be the effect of not much snowfall melt flowing from the Swedish and Lapland highlands into the Gulf of Bothnia) Further if you remember, I reported that the Norwegian press were reporting longer than normal snow retention last summer in their Alps. So the signs continue to look good.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

    Thanks Carinth,

    Yes, I remember all those red colours and will look foreward to comparing the SST's this summer and autumn for comparisons to last year.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Ice cover remains on a par with this time last year,apart from the retention of ice formation this winter in the Gulf of Bothnia. Pack ice covers the Arctic Ocean and the Kara Sea. The Canadian and Siberian sectors show a good cover of sea ice but not all areas are packed. Not much ice to report of in the Denmark Strait between Greenland and Iceland. Any pack ice here being locked into the Greenland Fiords. The recent low temperature in the Barents Sea has failed to produce much sea ice in this area this Spring, although the prevailing NEly winds have pushed some ice flows into the Spitzbergen Bank with Bergy bits being now reported in Jan Mayen waters and as far Southwest as the Irminger Basin. The Aleutian Low is now in a position to return polar air from Siberia back into the Sea of Japan with a return of snowfall to much of highland Japan.

    Deep snow still covers much of Scandinavia, the Baltic states and much of Russia and Siberia. The Arctic high still dominates in a broad swathe from Labrador, Greenland and into Northern Russia with a well established and prolonged negative AO still prevailing. This combination is ripe for a return of cold NEly to affect much of Northern Europe during April. Eventually the high pressure zone will slip south with a return to warmer conditions, but when ?

    Carinthian

    Greetings,

    Latest surface and upper air data show a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap. Cold air is expected to push from the Arctic into the Iceland Basin towards the end of the week. Deepest pool is likely to spread into Ireland over the weekend.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Greetings,

    Latest surface and upper air data show a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap. Cold air is expected to push from the Arctic into the Iceland Basin towards the end of the week. Deepest pool is likely to spread into Ireland over the weekend.

    C

    Morning,

    Further to the above -50C on the plateau this morning with blizzards and severe cold pushing towards Iceland.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
    Morning,

    Further to the above -50C on the plateau this morning with blizzards and severe cold pushing towards Iceland.

    C

    Morning Carinthian,

    Sounds freezing. You report as if you are on the plateau yourself. :doh:

    We had -4.5C in the midlands here in Ireland overnight which is an all time low for April.Two mornings of severe frost. It will make the Summer seem shorter and the winter will come sooner.

    Hi Tamara,

    I hope you are keeping well too. Sorry for not acknowledging your post yesterday. I am only dipping in and out of the forum at the moment. It will be interesting to see how the weather fares for you in the SE and if the anticlyconic conditions that look like prevailing will bring a very warm summer to you. It would be great for barbecues..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Morning,

    Further to the above -50C on the plateau this morning with blizzards and severe cold pushing towards Iceland.

    C

    Carinthian

    Keep up the good work. Very interesting to see such cold developing up there. Like Johns quote re you actually being there...it comes across like it :doh:

    The METO are hedging for another -ve NAO this year and I think it is a good bet. I think summer will be late with Aug/Sept warmest months, obviously it is nice in the sun but I don't see anything like searing heat until then. I don't think winter will arrive earlier than last year but what I predict is a dramatic change from warm conditions to cold as in a set up anticipated we will be influenced more like a continental climate so from late summer warmth/autumn mild into cold like last winter. I am looking for GHP to be ever present this year to consolidate these thoughts. These current reports delight me

    BFTP :D

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Morning Carinthian,

    Sounds freezing. You report as if you are on the plateau yourself. :doh:

    We had -4.5C in the midlands here in Ireland overnight which is an all time low for April.Two mornings of severe frost. It will make the Summer seem shorter and the winter will come sooner.

    Hi Tamara,

    I hope you are keeping well too. Sorry for not acknowledging your post yesterday. I am only dipping in and out of the forum at the moment. It will be interesting to see how the weather fares for you in the SE and if the anticlyconic conditions that look like prevailing will bring a very warm summer to you. It would be great for barbecues..

    Hi John,

    Beats my -4.2C earlier this morning. The cold wedge should be centred over your part of the world on Monday night into Tuesday morning. It will be interesting to see if that record is broken again. Could be a close call.

    Let us know !

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Carinthian

    Keep up the good work. Very interesting to see such cold developing up there. Like Johns quote re you actually being there...it comes across like it :lol:

    The METO are hedging for another -ve NAO this year and I think it is a good bet. I think summer will be late with Aug/Sept warmest months, obviously it is nice in the sun but I don't see anything like searing heat until then. I don't think winter will arrive earlier than last year but what I predict is a dramatic change from warm conditions to cold as in a set up anticipated we will be influenced more like a continental climate so from late summer warmth/autumn mild into cold like last winter. I am looking for GHP to be ever present this year to consolidate these thoughts. These current reports delight me

    BFTP ;)

    Hello BFTP,

    Thanks for your interest in this topic. It would give me great pleasure if your prognosis came off. I too don't think we will get the searing heat of tropical air mass, but I anticipate a good summer with lots of sunshine with the high pressure belt (clean air mass type) sinking closer to the British Isles, hopefully as good as 1959, which if you can remember was warm,sunny and dry without getting to hot.

    As regards to being on the Greenland plateau, I get all my info from some good buddies who work for Danish MI in the climate dept and I belief them alright when they say its cold up there!

    Cheers

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    As regards to being on the Greenland plateau, I get all my info from some good buddies who work for Danish MI in the climate dept and I belief them alright when they say its cold up there!

    Cheers

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    As regards to being on the Greenland plateau, I get all my info from some good buddies who work for Danish MI in the climate dept and I belief them alright when they say its cold up there!

    Cheers

    C

    Sorry if it came across wrong but what I'm saying is you set the scene well and one can imagine you're up there :lol: Interesting to see a few major forecasting companies going for a late start to summer!

    BFTP

    hI, No problem BFTP, Im always up there in spirit. I love the Greenland ice -cap,you can fit Western Europe on it.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    hI, No problem BFTP, Im always up there in spirit. I love the Greenland ice -cap,you can fit Western Europe on it.

    C

    Morrning, the very latest report from the Denmark Striat indicate the main ice sheet to be presently 30NM from the Iceland Horn. The coming week will probably get the main pack 7/10-9/10th cover very close to NW Iceland ( probably no connection) the ice formation be retained and moved by a decent of very cold glacier winds mixing with the persistant NEly wind flow in the Denmark Strait,

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Id say we are almost certainly going to see a new Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice minimum this summer. Ice levels have been at least a million sq km below average for around 2 months now, at a time when ice levels usually recover due to the Arctic being at its coldest during March.

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

    Sea ice thickness to our north-east is looking decidedly thin aswell, it wouldnt be suprising at this rate if the north-east passage is open for much longer this year:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

    Indeed, looking at the anomoly chart, the current 2 month period with a definct of 1 million sq km is now the longest such period on record with such a level of sea ice below average:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

    And finally, the peak ice levels this winter was 13.8 million sq km, also the lowest on record:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...ent.updated.jpg

    Could it be we've finally reached a point where the sea ice can no longer recover? if this continues throughout the year, it could be safe to say the answer is yes.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
    Id say we are almost certainly going to see a new Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice minimum this summer. Ice levels have been at least a million sq km below average for around 2 months now, at a time when ice levels usually recover due to the Arctic being at its coldest during March.

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

    Sea ice thickness to our north-east is looking decidedly thin aswell, it wouldnt be suprising at this rate if the north-east passage is open for much longer this year:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

    Indeed, looking at the anomoly chart, the current 2 month period with a definct of 1 million sq km is now the longest such period on record with such a level of sea ice below average:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

    And finally, the peak ice levels this winter was 13.8 million sq km, also the lowest on record:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...ent.updated.jpg

    Could it be we've finally reached a point where the sea ice can no longer recover? if this continues throughout the year, it could be safe to say the answer is yes.

    Christ those are some worrying charts. It really doesn't look good up there long term if things continue as they are. The whole pole will melt!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Hi carinthian. So how much below average is the ice-caps around Greenland and the pole region? Are there even less then any of the last 20 years?

    Hi OP, The Arctic Ocean is 100% ice cover at the present, so that is average. The Greenland Basin is slightly less than average for this time of year, but was above average in the Autumn months. I wouldn't look to much into the Arctic cryoshere images and comparision reports over the past 20 years. Reporting and accurracy of ice extent and thickness is still evolving with new technology. I can remember 25 years ago that Geostationary Satellite views from Metestat 1 even measured ice slush eddies as permanent ice cover. So all I can advise is to be careful not to read too much into some of these gloom reports. The only reports that I take as being the most accurrate come from the Danish Met Institue climatologist.

    C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...