Across the globe!

[Gorky]

I think the picture says it all really...

[thepokergod]

Awsome radar image on the BOM website. Click on Gove and you can get a great image of the eye wall. Looks like Cape Wessel is about to get an absolute hammering in the next 12 hrs!

[Paranoid]

I've heard somewhere that Monica's pressure may go down to 877mb, but i can't confirm it. At the moment is estimated at around 905mb. Here's the extract from wikipedia.

"Some estimated unofficial preliminary data has suggested that this cyclone could produce the lowest Atmospheric Pressure recorded in the Southern Hemipshere, with Pressure readings around 877hPa"

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt26.html

Edited April 23, 2006 by Paranoid

[kold weather]

877mbs is a computer estimate though based on satilte.

CI# /Pressure

7.8 / 876.9mb

I'd think that something closer to 900mbs is more likely to be honest, but it does look ultra impressive and is probably, like hurricane Rita, sub-900mbs. The system certainly looks impressive though and is well worth its cat-5 status, with impressive cloud tops, a good solid eye with eyewall and great outflow, very impressive system that wouldn't be out of place in the NW Pacific and probably our 1st sub 900mbs storm of the year (Though I think Glenda was probably close.)

Navy site now estimating monica at 892mbs!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

[Mondy]

Hi all

Wasn't gonna be on here until the Summer/Hurricane season, but this system is immense and well worthy of watching.

Edited April 23, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[kold weather]

Wow, some great images there, I suspect that unoffically its already broken the Australian record pressure, If the neavy estimates are right at 892mbs I dare say that the pressure has been broken anyway. It certainly is one mighty system though, its like Katrina all over again!

[Paranoid]

Hopefully there's no low lying cities in her path. The gusts in that storm look impressive. It's saying gusts up to 220mph. Sustained winds are about 160mph it seems.

Edited April 23, 2006 by Paranoid

[summer blizzard]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 013

WTPS31 PGTW 230300

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

230000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 138.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 138.0E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

231200Z --- 10.9S 136.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 10.8S 135.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

241200Z --- 11.1S 133.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

250000Z --- 11.5S 131.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 137.7E.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 30 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.

//

BT

#0001

NNNN

Sustained windspeeds are 160mph and expected to stay like that for the next 24 hours before a weakening to 145mph in 36 hours before a further weakening to 130mph in 48 hours.

[Mondy]

[wolves78]

IDDP0002

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Northern Territory

Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone

emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 57

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

at 8:00 pm CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between CAPE

SHIELD and POINT STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between POINT STUART and PORT KEATS, including

DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 7 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 105

kilometres north northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 180 kilometres east northeast of

ELCHO ISLAND, moving west at 12 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain

close to its current intensity as it moves further west, just north of the

northern Top End coast overnight. The cyclone is expected to weaken slightly as

it passes over the base of COBOURG PENINSULA before reaching the northwest

DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350

kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,

including the northern parts of ELCHO ISLAND in the next few hours. The VERY

DESTRUCTIVE core is expected to impact the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND

between MILINGIMBI and CROKER ISLAND during Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being

experienced on the Wessel Islands, and are expected to develop along the Arnhem

Land coast between NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and extend further west to

MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND during Monday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on

the far northeast Arnhem Land, and are expected to extend westwards as far as

POINT STUART and COBOURG PENINSULA on Monday night.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest

DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE

SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during tonight.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low

lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land tonight, extending across the remainder

of the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 pm CST:

. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 137.1 degrees East

. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres

. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h

. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour

. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5

. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

Edited April 23, 2006 by wolves78

[P.K.]

Wow, some great images there, I suspect that unoffically its already broken the Australian record pressure,

Not quite, but it is certainly close to the record.

Orson (1988/9) was 905hPa, Gwenda (1998/9) was 900hPa, and Inigo (2002/3) 900hPa.

[Mondy]

This is a bit beyond me, but 868mb?? Surely not? :o http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/23P-list.txt

World record for low pressure :o PK, KW, anyone....is that for real?

Edit: Either way, it's defo down to 879mb > +2mb from equalling the world record (Typhoon Tip)

NRL:

23PMONICA.155kts-879mb-112S-1358E

Edited April 23, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

IDDP0002

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Northern Territory

Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone

emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 60

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

at 5:00 am CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between

NHULUNBUY and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG

PENINSULA and JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS.

The CYCLONE WATCH between CAPE SHIELD and NHULUNBUY has been cancelled.

At 4 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 80

kilometres north northeast of ELCHO ISLAND and 150 kilometres northwest of

NHULUNBUY, moving west at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone will move further

west and closer to the coast later today. The cyclone is then expected to

gradually weaken as it passes over the COBOURG PENINSULA tonight before reaching

the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350

kilometres per hour is currently affecting the islands off the northeast Arnhem

Land coast, including the northern parts of ELCHO ISLAND. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE

core is then expected to cross the north coast between MILINGIMBI and CROKER

ISLAND later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being

experienced on the remaining islands about the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and

should extend further west to CAPE DON by tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on

the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are expected to extend westwards to POINT

STUART and COBOURG PENINSULA tonight.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest

DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between

NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND this morning, extending westwards to GOULBURN ISLAND

later today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low

lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land this morning, extending across the

remainder of the northern Top End during the day.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST:

. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 135.8 degrees East

. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres

. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h

. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour

. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5

. Central pressure......... 910 hectoPascals

[wolves78]

loop of monica http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...aBy12hr_08.html

on the latest pressure readings its stll down at 868.6mb thats on the 19.30 update

Edited April 23, 2006 by wolves78

[TreizeVents]

868 hPa, world record ?!? :o

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/23P-list.txt

[Mondy]

Looks like it! I see you posted the updated version :o

[wolves78]

868 hPa, world record ?!? :o

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/23P-list.txt

still trying to find out more on that mate but if its true then what a monster :o

ive been stuck on the australian forum most of the evening

same sort of info as we all put on here realy

[Mondy]

Monica is now at least tied with Cyclone Zoe(2002) as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere...

Personally, 868mb is just too low!!

ive been stuck on the australian forum most of the evening

same sort of info as we all put on here realy

I know you have! :o

Edited April 23, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

Monica is now at least tied with Cyclone Zoe(2002) as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere...

Personally, 868mb is just too low!!

I know you have! :o

you on there aswell then monday? :o

[P.K.]

World record for low pressure :o PK, KW, anyone....is that for real?

Edit: Either way, it's defo down to 879mb > +2mb from equalling the world record (Typhoon Tip)

Ignore that, it is clearly very wrong.

Also Monica is now 910hPa and never went below 905hPa in advisories so ignore what the NRL page says. It's not 879hPa.

I'm also a bit suspicious about TC Zoe's pressure unless anyone can show me RSMC Nadi's best track for it. (Not the JTWC best track)

[Mondy]

you on there aswell then monday? :o

:o Not logge on, just watching...

looks the 868mb reading is just a computer reading?, but, no doubt, PK will correct us..!

[wolves78]

:o Not logge on, just watching...

looks the 868mb reading is just a computer reading?, but, no doubt, PK will correct us..!

:o he just did good old PK ty mate

for anyone that hasnt used or looked at the australian site here it is

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ulti...0406&p=5#000064

Edited April 23, 2006 by wolves78

[P.K.]

:o Not logge on, just watching...

looks the 868mb reading is just a computer reading?, but, no doubt, PK will correct us..!

Indeed. It's also a slightly different method than used by the SSD page etc. (Objective as opposed to the subjective method :o )

[Paranoid]

But it's windspeeds seem to have increased as well. They were 160mph before but now seem to be 180mph. If the pressure went up then why did it strengthen?

[wolves78]

monday what is your name on the aus site? is it the same as on here?

PK you should join the site for this you seem to know alot more than most on there :o