Across the globe!

[crimsone]

Thanks Kold! - I see they've updated the page then (or not! lol - yes they have - had to refresh a few times.)

Impossible to say that it will actually get that far (but impossible to say that it won't from that forecast! lol), but wouldn't it be ironic, given the history of the atlantic wave that formed that TD in the EPAC, if it managed to get back to the atlantic and become a Cat 1?

OK, the chances may be slim, but it would certainly amuse me after waiting all this time to see something develop in the atlantic.

Not sure the people of Mexico would be so amused, but you know what I mean.

Edited May 27, 2006 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Interesting forecast track here, taking it slowly back out to sea...

Edited May 27, 2006 by crimsone

[Mondy]

As the Yanks would say, it's just a fish spinner! A storm that goes out to sea, and never makes landfall. ...

[Mondy]

Long way off, and big shot at that, but this area is where the N.Atlantic hurricanes are first born (mostly). Deep convection over Guinea (West Africa 10N)..

If it makes it out to sea, who knows??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/xxirmet7n.GIF

Long, long, long shot remember. Still, the activity is beginning for the start of the season..

Edited May 27, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E LOCATED AT 15.1N 101.3W AT 1500 UTC

27 MAY MOVING N AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS TO 40

KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W FROM 2N-10N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED

MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 W OF AXIS. UPPER

ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION

WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG...AXIS 7N79W 14N99W 5N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM

82W TO 95W AND FROM 100W TO 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 32N109W 26N111W 26N134W

21N140W. VERY DRY AIRMASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE

N AND W OF AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION

CENTERED NEAR 10N118W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 11N99W. WEAK

SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO REGION BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH AND

RIDGE.

WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 96W REMAINS S OF INFLUENCING T.D.

ONE-E UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER

SYSTEM. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND COULD ALLOW T.D.

ONE-E TO INTENSIFY WITHIN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SECOND

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER FEEDS UPPER

LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ITCZ E OF 95W AND LETS MAINTAINS WEAK

EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER TROPICAL WAVE AT 88W.

SHOULD THIS RIDGE MOVE FURTHER S FORCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

PRESENTLY OVER WRN MEXICO...IT COULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF

TROPICAL WAVE.

as for what you ar on about mondy it is a long shot but its the rite time for some action that is some decent convection though would say if it get to sea then we will be in for a treat within the next 72 hours lets see how it develops

[crimsone]

Well, I'd say that that could make for a pretty good wave if it does make it

As for our "fish spinner" though, if it does make it out, I guess it would depend on the prevailing conditions, but it could make landfall elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Alleta now though. forecast track is now something resembling realistic.

Edited May 28, 2006 by crimsone

[crimsone]

A bit of a curious discussion on Aletta...

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006

800 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING LIKE A TOUGH ONE TO

FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.

SSM/I AND AMSR-E IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO

THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. UNLESS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO

THE EAST... ALETTA MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER

HAS REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION AT LEAST TWICE ALREADY IN THIS

SYSTEM...IT MIGHT NOT BE UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT YET ANOTHER

REFORMATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45

KT. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. IN SPITE OF

THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE

GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC

ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME

INTENSIFICATION...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THIS IS ALSO IN

GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

AND STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NOW NO DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT TAKE THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST ALETTA TO

MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE

NOTED THAT THE GFDL'S VORTEX TRACKER...WHICH IS LISTED ON THE

STANDARD OUTPUT MESSAGE...LOSES TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT

INDICATE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF THE GFDL MODEL OUTPUT

FIELDS OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CLEARLY SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE

COAST. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CREDIBLE GUIDANCE TO FORECAST A

WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM

STATIONARY FROM DAYS 3-5. OBVIOUSLY...ALETTA MAY HAVE MOVED INLAND

AND DISSIPATED BY THEN.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.7N 101.0W 35 KT

12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W 40 KT

24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.3N 100.8W 45 KT

36HR VT 29/1200Z 16.6N 100.7W 50 KT

48HR VT 30/0000Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT

72HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT

120HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W 55 KT

I did notice the GFDL drop Aletta earlier and found it a little odd.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

It seems to dissapate to look at it, but apparently the low center does indeed make ladfall according to the numbers - the anomily is apparently in the GFDLs vortex tracker.

So, we're left with a general concensus, that the storm will make landfall in a day or two, A possibility that it will soon fall apart unless a new center emerges close to the convection, and if it does, we're given forecast points indicating an intensity increasing to 55KT by three days time. I can only assume that such an intensity estimate is based either on the previous track forecast, or is based on Aletta not making landfall and remaining reasonably stationary.

Edited May 28, 2006 by crimsone