USA Severe Weather Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

To kick off the 3 weeks whilst out a chasin a brand new thread for Serious Risk discussions in the Plains

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0729 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY

TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK AND SRN KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ELSEWHERE FROM

NRN KS SWD TO CENTRAL TX...AND EWD TO NW AR/MO/SRN IL....

...SYNOPSIS...

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN IS EVOLVING INTO

AN OPEN WAVE...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT EWD TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY

TONIGHT. A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO THE

UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS NRN STREAM TROUGH...A

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...DRIVING A COLD

FRONT SEWD ACROSS OK/NW TX AND THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE OVER SW KS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED

TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS/MO...OR

PERHAPS ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS NRN

OK...IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW AND

THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH

EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS KS AND NRN OK.

...KS/OK/MO AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE FIRST MCS IN THE SEQUENCE HAS DISSIPATED OVER SE MO...LEAVING AN

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN AR INTO NRN OK. A SECOND SMALL MCS IS

WEAKENING OVER NE OK/NW AR...AND THIS CONVECTION IS REINFORCING THE

EARLIER OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN OK. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST ACROSS

CENTRAL/NE KS AND SE NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AND LIFT ALONG THE

SURFACE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION

ACROSS KS...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY END UP BEING THE

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER BY AFTERNOON. A FEED OF

UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR AIR /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 62-64

F/ WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN OK INTO THE OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEP

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000

J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND PERHAPS 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE ZONE

BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE IN KS.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ONGOING

STORMS IN KS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS

WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...CLOSE TO

A LINE FROM P28-END. INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY FLOW...ALONG WITH

BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF THE

SURFACE LOW...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE

LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN

MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY WITH A BELT OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MID

60 DEWPOINTS. LATER DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD GROW

UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS

SRN KS AND NRN OK...POSSIBLY REACHING SW MO AND NW AR LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT

INTO CENTRAL TX...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE

LIMITED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO/AR.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Looks like tornadic conditions are forming around Tulsa, Oklahoma as i type!! Severe warnings have been issued for this and surrounding areas...looks like late afternoon may produce some tornadoes.

[Cloudburst]

I wish i had my pc up and running to use glevel3, oh well!

Looking good out there though, slightly jellous of the cape they have out there :o

[wolves78]

National Weather Service County - OKC035

WNSWOU3

WOUS64 KWNS 241730

WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 243

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1235 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC007-015-087-143-242300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0243.060424T1735Z-060424T2300Z/

AR

. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON CARROLL MADISON

WASHINGTON

MOC009-119-145-209-242300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0243.060424T1735Z-060424T2300Z/

MO

. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON

STONE

OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-143-145-

147-242300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0243.060424T1735Z-060424T2300Z/

OK

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG

CREEK DELAWARE MAYES

MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE

OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE

ROGERS TULSA WAGONER

WASHINGTON

ATTN.WFO...TSA...SGF...

TSASVSTSA

WWUS54 KTSA 241742

SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1241 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

OKC035-105-131-241815-

/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-060424T1815Z/

NOWATA OK-CRAIG OK-ROGERS OK-

1241 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT

FOR ROGERS.CRAIG AND NOWATA COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF

BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE

LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTRALIA TO

7 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE TO NEW ALLUWE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE

STORMS PRODUCED HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS IN DELAWARE.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NEW ALLUWE...

CENTRALIA...CENTRAILIA...CHELSEA...HOLLOW...WHITE OAK...WELCH...

BLUEJACKET...PYRAMID CORNERS...BIG CABIN AND VINITA.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3695 9501 3653 9502 3653 9542 3645 9544

3652 9582 3692 9581 3695 9581 3695 9579

3699 9579 3699 9504

TSASVRTSA

WUUS54 KTSA 241716

SVRTSA

OKC035-105-131-241815-

/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0188.060424T1717Z-060424T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1217 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NOWATA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ROGERS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL

AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF LENAPAH TO DELAWARE TO 8 MILES

NORTHWEST OF TALALA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NOWATA...

TALALA...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...CHELSEA...WHITE OAK...WELCH...

BLUEJACKET...BIG CABIN AND VINITA.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3695 9501 3653 9502 3653 9542 3645 9544

3652 9582 3692 9581 3695 9581 3695 9579

3699 9579 3699 9504

WNSWOU2

WOUS64 KWNS 241703

WOU2

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 242

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1203 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC019-035-099-125-241800-

/O.CON.KWNS.SV.A.0242.000000T0000Z-060424T1800Z/

KS

. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY LABETTE

MONTGOMERY

Edited April 24, 2006 by wolves78

[NL]

I wish i had my pc up and running to use glevel3, oh well!

Looking good out there though, slightly jellous of the cape they have out there :o

Isnt it expensive to use Glevel1,2,3 and x..I know u can get the hardware/software for around £400-£500 but how much is use..Sorry off topic!!

[wolves78]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?ri...1101111&loop=no

some angry looking clouds in tulsa ATM

http://www.ktul.com/news/webcam.hrb?s=1

Edited April 24, 2006 by wolves78

[wolves78]

a few cam links out of the other thread as its closeing so ill pop em here :o

good webcam link here should anything happen l8r updates every 3-4 seconds

http://www.katzfey.us/yard/cam.html

not a bad one on this site its a sky view

http://www.kake.com/weather

radar on there aswell

this other site has most states in the usa

http://www.webcambiglook.com/ok.shtml

[NL]

Hope thats just a dirty camera and not DEBRIS !!! http://www.webcambiglook.com/nw63rdstatecam-ok.htm

think it could be hail actually

[Paul Sherman]

Today is looking like quite a dangerous situation could play out!! A triple point set up across western OK At present should be interacting with current 84/70 Temps & Dewpoints, and there is already a clear slot with developing cumulus field taking shape. We could be looking at quite a few Tornados near to the Metro Area of Oklahoma City, possible tornadoes cannot be ruled out in South Central Kansas also. I am expecting major radar outbreak in about 2 hours time.

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

Hope thats just a dirty camera and not DEBRIS !!! http://www.webcambiglook.com/nw63rdstatecam-ok.htm

think it could be hail actually

its just dirt on the cam been there most of the day

tulsa has just recived a very heavy downpour plenty of rain but as it wasnt a live cam couldnt tell if there was any thunder with it

[NL]

Yeah thought it was dirt...Impressive skyline in Tulsa..http://www.ktul.com/news/webcam.hrb?s=1

[wolves78]

im on that cam now hopeing to see summet in the distance but nothing so far

http://www.ktul.com/

radar info and more

[Andy Bown]

not a bad one on this site its a sky view

http://www.kake.com/weather

radar on there aswell

Goodness look at the 7 day forecast on there. From 84f max today down to 55f max tomorrow! Or for those who like celsius thats 29c max down to 13c max! No wonder it's thundery.

[NL]

im on that cam now hopeing to see summet in the distance but nothing so far

http://www.ktul.com/

radar info and more

About 30 mins ago absolutely nothing could be seen out ov this cam horrendous conditions!!!

[summer blizzard]

What is the tornado count so far this season????????

[NL]

Looks like Tulsa have seen the worst for today...looks likely that Marshall county is next to have a deludge!!

last count i think was 501..but that was about 3 days ago

[wolves78]

Paul Sherman is here so im sure he will tell us the count so far

[Nick F]

urgent - immediate broadcast requested

Tornado Watch number 244

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

135 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2006

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Tornado Watch for portions of

south central Kansas

western and central Oklahoma

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900

PM CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 3 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind

gusts to 80 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these

areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 65 statute

miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southeast of Fort

Sill Oklahoma to 35 miles northwest of Hutchinson Kansas. For a

complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline

update (wous64 kwns wou4).

[Paul Sherman]

As of 23rd April it stands at 576, the yearly average is about 1200 so very healthy, even more healthy is that it took until July for this amount to be achieved last year.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Looks likely that figure will rise by tomorrow morning!!!

This storm over Oklahoma and surrounding states is intensifying by the looks ov this. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[Paul Sherman]

NL Absolutely, the situation in Oklahoma is explosive to say the least with overshooting tops on Cb's and 2.5" inch hailstones on these storms within 30 minutes of initiation. Lets hope they miss OK City

Paul Sherman

EDIT The Tornado Number as of yesterday was 561

[wolves78]

NL Absolutely, the situation in Oklahoma is explosive to say the least with overshooting tops on Cb's and 2.5" inch hailstones on these storms within 30 minutes of initiation. Lets hope they miss OK City

Paul Sherman

EDIT The Tornado Number as of yesterday was 561

ty for you input PS carnt wait till you get out there wish it was tnight you were there

where is your first stop when u get there bed or hunting storms?

there is a program on sky one now that might interest you its called inside a lightning bolt well its at 22:20

Edited April 24, 2006 by wolves78

[NL]

If it hits Oklahoma City (shudder the thought) I reckon it maybe the catalyst needed to push Bush and his administration to accept the fact that G/W is a fact !!! But then again many ppl thought Katrina and Rita would have been enough!! OOps soz wrong thread!

[Paul Sherman]

Yes i wish I was out there today!! I love the OK/TX Panhandle Dryline Storms, as in my signature this was a TX Panhandle storm last year. In answer to your question on what we do when we get there. On Saturday we will look at the risk areas and if we land in a Risk we will Chase Straight away when we get off that damn plane, if no risk is evident we will head towards further risk areas and stop off at Walmarts and stock up on essentials like Bud & Fags :lol: No seriously we get snacks and Phone cards and things like that.

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Radar...atest_Small.gif

Yes i wish I was out there today!! I love the OK/TX Panhandle Dryline Storms, as in my signature this was a TX Panhandle storm last year. In answer to your question on what we do when we get there. On Saturday we will look at the risk areas and if we land in a Risk we will Chase Straight away when we get off that damn plane, if no risk is evident we will head towards further risk areas and stop off at Walmarts and stock up on essentials like Bud & Fags :lol: No seriously we get snacks and Phone cards and things like that.

Paul Sherman

i think im almost looking forward to it as much as you

looks like ATM it will cool down but by the weekend will be warming up nicely for you to at least get a Tstorm the day you arive well fingers crossed N good luck