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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Things appear to have slowed down a touch, which means that a major severe weather event later today in TX and OK will not be that far to the east when you arrive on the weekend. Today, looks ripe for development of heavy rainfall over many of the regions recently plagued by drought and blowing dust, central OK to n/c TX. This may be beneficial in the long run but the first stages may involve some serious flash flooding even in the DFW area. Large hail and tornadoes are indicated for portions of w OK, nw to n/c TX centered on Wichita Falls to Abilene (that's later today) ... by Saturday this system will be somewhat weaker and into Missouri and Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

If you're not chasing after that one, the advancing system appears to be slowed by about half a day ... would now seem that a position in nw KS, ne CO or se WY might be best advised for late Monday with development then and on Tuesday in the general area. I think that by Tuesday this may turn into a good storm chase situation with separated cells in a fairly dry environment generally giving good visibility of TRW+ and some risk of tornadic development.

Actually, just as well, time to get oriented to the heat and humidity as well as driving on the right, etc etc, then a slow buildup to some interesting weather.

If you guys get bored with the weather or it stops producing for a few days, western Colorado and southern Utah are very scenic and that's where my avatar photo was taken (Bryce Canyon National Park). Always very interesting cloudscapes across this region, I've found on my various visits. A more accessible location that is similar would be Big Bend National Park in western Texas.

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Just for general interest, probably more for the readers in the UK than the experienced storm chase guys, here's some information on the climatology of Texas and Oklahoma that you may find interesting and helpful in understanding severe weather in that region.

Most severe weather in the southern plains occurs when low pressure forms over NM, w TX or CO and high pressure is located over the eastern Gulf. The moist, humid Gulf air mass usually moves inland rather slowly but as it moves north, the humidity also rises gradually to the west due to low level moisture feed from the SE. The dynamic cold front of the system tends to separate dry desert air from northern Mexico from cooler Pacific air. This leaves the warm sector divided into moist and dry tropical air masses that become separated by a "dry line" feature. In some cases, this dry line is under a cap or inversion, and the only effects on the weather are found in weak lines of cumulus or even altocumulus with a rather gradual dew point gradient across the dry line. Wind shifts then are often marginal, from SSE to SW. However, when the dry slot air mass starts to move faster and cut under the humid air near the surface, wind speeds often accelerate, especially through various gaps in the north-south mountains in west Texas. A station called Guadalupe Pass east of El Paso often signals the onset of severe conditions when winds there start blowing in the range of 45-70 mph from the SW. When El Paso and other nearby stations in se NM hit 30-40 mph winds in this situation, severe storm development may be imminent. A favoured location for onset of these storms is near or just west of a line from Amarillo TX to Lubbock TX at about 2-4 pm CDT or 19z-21z. The normal pattern is for cells to be isolated at first, then more continuous by the time the dry line reaches the TX-OK border and south.

These dry line storms usually hold together to about OKC-DFW but after this, the dry line feature and its storms may begin to fade and more development then takes place as the actual cold front catches up to the dry line and plows into the warm sector which in this stage is beginning to lose the dry slot feature. This is the main reason why storm chase results are usually better west of OKC to DFW than east -- the storms are more separated and surface humidities are lower, leading to better visibility of the storm effects.

Further north into KS and NE, the same kinds of dynamics occur but the dry line conditions make more progress east due to the distance from the Gulf. There are occasions when the dry line can still be detected as far east as Iowa and northern Missouri. If the fronts make any further progress, they rapidly transform into the more familiar polar and maritime fronts and the dew points between them usually rise to levels more typical of a transitional air mass in North America, 15-18 C.

Returning to Texas, large hail is often reported in central Texas. There are probably more large hail than tornado damage reports from areas between San Angelo and San Antonio, and large hail is fairly frequent as far north as southern Kansas. Even in North Dakota and Manitoba, in mid-summer there are reports of large hail on a fairly regular basis. The typical supercell thunderstorm has a tornadic development zone near its southern boundary and a large hail production zone just north of that, with heavy rainfall at that location and further north in the cell.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

1226 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ZEPHYR...OR ABOUT 6 MILES

EAST OF EARLY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...

EASTERN BROWN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3179 9897 3164 9885 3173 9870 3199 9885

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

evening looks like the area arouned fortwoth/dallas is kicking of been reading the local pages reports os 2 inch hailstones there

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...1101111&loop=no

This post has been edited by tinybill: A minute ago

--------------------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/suffolk/content/webca...rt_webcam.shtml

http://www.bbc.co.uk/suffolk/content/webca...ut_webcam.shtml

http://www.pancanal.com/eng/photo/camera-java.html

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Some really nice cells coming out of New Mexico into the Panhandle now, and my target area of Childress has a beaut of a Storm just to the west at present.

Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

2 Cells currently catching my attention, one to the Noth West of Childress and another just North of Plainview. 1 Tornado so far from all the way up in North Dakota :o :o

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Coalville, Leics, UK, 157m/asl
  • Location: Coalville, Leics, UK, 157m/asl

Take a look at SW Texas. Classic supercell with hook echo, TVS and up to 4" hail according to radar over the last half hour or so!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Have seen that one Sam, looks pretty good in higher temps down there as well. I'd expect a few of these more South Western Cells to produce a few tubes??

Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Hillmorton,Rugby,Warwickshire.ASL 97m
  • Location: Hillmorton,Rugby,Warwickshire.ASL 97m

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 260

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1110 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM

UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DE

QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...WW 259...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

OVERSPREAD ERN TX INTO FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR TONIGHT WITHIN EXTREME

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POTENT

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING TX WILL OVERCOME CAPPING AND

ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW

STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF LONG-LIVED

SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...WITH AN ATTENDANT ENHANCED THREAT OF

SEVERE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE

WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Looks like a bumpy ride for Oklahoma, Texas today with more storms predicted.

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A storm moving very slowly through the nation's midsection will draw warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday evening. This will produce strong to severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma eastward into Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms Saturday evening will produce blinding downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Stronger storms will contain wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and large hail. The most violent storms could spawn tornadoes. The severe threat will shift slowly eastward overnight Saturday into Sunday and will affect portions of western Kentucky, western Tennessee, Mississippi, eastern Louisiana and Alabama

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php

looking at the radar looks like the weather is turning nice for the storm chasers when they get there!!!

looks like new orleans area is in for more rain

Edited by tinybill
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SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 265

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

605 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 605 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GULFPORT

MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looks like Paul and the gang would have to head a fair way NE up into Arkansas or perhaps N into E Oklahoma to see the action later today:

day1otlk_1200.gif

Mind you some storms over in Southern Mississipi with a tornado warning there atm but looks like the action will diminish there by the time they are on the road.

Slight risk of severe weather zone spreading into E Oklahoma and far NE of Texas tomorrow though:

Edited by Nick F
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