Us Chase Day 4 Discussion - Wed 3rd May

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like Chase Day 4 is a re-run of Tuesday, and interstingly is the 7 year anniversary of the May 3rd F5 That hit Oklahoma. In Fact the next 8 days have Severe risks across the Plains, we have already hit 1000 miles and will be totally knackered by next Tuesday at this rate.

The Following for tomorrow

SPC AC 021726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK TO

CENTRAL OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE CYCLONE NOW BEGINNING

TO CLOSE ACROSS NERN MT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD

INVOF CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 03/18Z BEFORE TURNING NEWD

ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN ONT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED

ACROSS WRN SD AND E-CENTRAL/SERN WY -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS

UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.

FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE ACROSS NRN/WRN OK EARLY IN PERIOD...AS WAVE

CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER NW TX INVOF DRYLINE INTERSECTION. EXPECT

DRYLINE TO EXTEND FROM THERE SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX TOWARD NRN

COAHUILA. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS -- SOME

INDUCED/ENHANCED BY PRIOR CONVECTION -- SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS

SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...

COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD

FROM PORTIONS NRN/ERN OK NEWD...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS

POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF REGION EARLY IN

PERIOD...WITH RELATIVE LULL UNTIL AFTERNOON INITIATION FARTHER S AND

W INVOF FRONT/DRYLINE.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR SFC COLD FRONT DURING

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING

WIND AND HAIL BEING MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS. DRYLINE POTENTIAL WILL BE

MORE ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL...MAINLY WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM S OF FRONT.

FARTHER S...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY. BESIDES FRONT

AND DRYLINE...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY-1 CONVECTION

ACROSS PORTIONS OK AND N TX MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCI FOR

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR INTENSIFICATION. AMBIENT SHEAR

PROFILES APPEAR MRGL IN PROGS FOR TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME

CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SUSTAINED/DISCRETE

STORMS INTERACTING WITH ANY BOUNDARIES SUITABLY ALIGNED RIGHTWARD OF

MEAN WIND...AND NOT TOO STABLE ON THEIR COOL SIDES. GIVEN COMPONENT

OF FLOW ALOFT NORMAL TO ORIENTATION OF FRONT...AND SLOW FRONTAL

MOTION FOR MUCH OF PERIOD NE OF LOW...MIX OF LINEAR/DISCRETE MODES

IS POSSIBLE.

SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F NOW ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF

CENTRAL/S TX...AND SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR

WEDNESDAY FROM RED RIVER REGION SWD. MEANWHILE STRONGER MIDLEVEL

WINDS AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT AREA NWD.

THEREFORE...HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED WHERE OPTIMAL

BUOYANCY AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM AND STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM RESIDUAL

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES 3000-4000

J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF N TX AND PERHAPS SRN-CENTRAL OK. RELATIVELY

WEAK WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND IN UPPER LEVELS INDICATE

COMPLEX...POSSIBLY HEAVY-PRECIP STORM TYPE. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ALONG FRONT...FROM SFC LOW NEWD ACROSS WRN OK.

THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST PROBABLE GENESIS REGION FOR NOCTURNAL MCS

AS WELL...WHICH WOULD MOVE EWD OR ESEWD VICINITY RED RIVER REGION

WITH CONTINUED SVR THREAT INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY.

Again if you want to post possible Chase Targets that will be greatly recieved, we are currently in Altus South West Oklahoma and in the Middle of Tomorrows Slight Risk area

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

seems to be as you say a rerun of the storms from yesterday looking as though the southern half of OK should be ther better place to be on the look out for any storms like yesterday the risk was for north TX and south OK

according to the jakson site there is only the slight risk for TS today. friday and saturday seem to look better in jackson but hey the can get it wrong as there in the slight risk area for tday

ill go for mountain view as a target for tday

[Gorky]

Upgraded to moderate risk now. Seems to be a very similar case location to yesterday. Maybe you should target a bit further south to try get on the end of the line of storms. I guess risk missing out on any storms at all if you got too far south... Personally I'd think about the Lubbock area for a starting point, but that might be a little far west. I wouldn't want to be playing catchup on these storms even if they aren't progged to be moving this fast. Threading your way through as MCS can't be fun I think storm coverage will be pretty widespread, so starting anywhere in the oanhandle should be good

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Gorky, Yes we are probably going to head towards Childress to get some electrical equipment early on, the Moderate risk is right over the top of us and some Tornadoes today could be long lived, so as you say it is trying to get on the Southern most Supercell today for nice Structure Pictures. But we are right in the action, pretty knackered but loving every minute of it.

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

At least the storms seem to be coming to you this year, unlike last time. I seem to remember you covering 8-9K miles last time round. I think you could probably sit parked in Childress for the next week and see storms every day looking at the latest models.

[Paul Sherman]

Right we are going to head between Lubbock and Abilene today, Remember it is 7 years ago today that the last F5 Hit and it formed right where we are today. Scary or what.

Paul Sherman

[fuzion]

ok cool good luck guys

stay safe

will be watching well the dopplers anyway

[kold weather]

Well today I'd probably place myslef in a very similar position as yesterday, tohugh this time on the other side of the border near Childress. Condtions presently in the sky over the region are pretty decent, some high cloud and a few Cumulus masses (That may need watching later)

12z models suggest, like yesterday, a decent amount of cape will be present later in the day, upto 3500kjs as a matter of fact!

One small worry I do have though is moisture levels. Presently the region is in a fairly dry region with RH levels in places down to just 25%. The good news on this front is that moisture is forecast to start to flood in again from the south later in the day, this coupled with a weakening of CINH presently over the region should allow some systems to form.

Trigger today looks like either the dryline or through a frontal feature. This frontal system is presently moving into W.Texas and while weakening it should still be strong enough to provide that extra trigger needed to get going. It should arrive in the target area by 21z according to the RUC model, just in time for the best solar heating and combined with cape of 3500kjs, there is every reason to think there will be some storms.

I'd also guess that these storms have every chance of being severe, deep level shear, is like yesterday probably enough for supercells and orgainsed storm systems, though it is actually fairly marginal in places.

Low level shear is even more marginal today, in fact in the mid-afternoon period its pretty much non-exsitant, so I'd be suprised if there will be that many (though in supes, they are always possible!) tornadoes, though FC's do always need to be watched for!

Hail once again looks like a being a large threat with some very large hail possibly, with drier air in the mid-sections of the atmopshere, and there is a rather steep lapse rate present.

[Anvil Crawler]

Currently sat in Childress outside the Kettle Rest nicking their Wifi, looks like we will sit tight for a few hours and Storms look to initiate quite a bit later on this afternoon, probably 11pm onwards your time, Temp at 140pm is 88f with 59f Dew Points, main problem today is the return of moisture due to yesterday's storms.

Ozzie

[Thundersquall]

Looks like the major 'action' is just NE of Texas (Oklahoma? Sorry - I'm not very good with US geography!)

LI of -8 and CAPE well over 2500! :

By my reckoning this chart is for about an hour from now (2100 GMT).

Looks like you've hit the 'jackpot' by staying overnight in SW Oklahoma!

[tinybill]

hi good evening seems on the radar possible tornadoes near west pains

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...1101111&loop=no

[Thundersquall]

hi good evening seems on the radar possible tornadoes near west pains

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...1101111&loop=no

That small red echo on the road between Memphis and Little Rock looks intersting as well!

[tinybill]

That small red echo on the road between Memphis and Little Rock looks intersting as well!

since my last post the area has got bigger

[Anvil Crawler]

The Following from Paul Sherman

Now we have a decision to make. An MD Has been issued for Northern Oklahoma which is 300 miles North but not in the Moderate Risk area, we have an electrified cell now 80 miles to our South near Guthrie. Sat here drinking a few buds talking and chatting with Ryan Mcnamara (SkyWarn Spotter) from Arizona and a few US Chasers all swapping data. So do we blast North or head South East???

Net Weather Team

[Roger J Smith]

Tough call, all sectors within reach have marginal development next 2-3 hours. Would suggest you edge ENE since a third area of cell development near Clinton OK may turn out to be strongest after 5 pm CDT and in any case is closer to you. You might even do OK to stay put. Dry line front appears to be edging back WNW at present, later convection may fire near your current location. But the odds favour a slight move ENE into w OK. I am expecting more significant development after 23z or 6 pm CDT peaking around 02z or 9 pm CDT in western OK and the Texas border regions closest to Wichita Falls.

[Anvil Crawler]

Cheers Roger, yes a few of the Chasers that had converged here have blasted off South towards Paducah and Guthrie, but we simply wont make the N Oklahoma action today, so we have the cells to our South or new development around South West Oklahoma to play with. Nice Dew Points now in Vernon (Tx) around 66f so we wait a little bit longer.

NetWeather Team

[Gorky]

Looking at Satellite, I see what might be a small line of Cu developing SE the Plainview area. They only appear on the last frame so I'd wait and see whether they are increasing in numbers. If they are, there might be some initiation the in the next hour or so. I can't say I'm impressed by the Guthrie storms, and the storms to the north are probably out of reach... I'd probably still play the panhandle area but don't move too far south leaving you a few options open to charge north if necessary..

[Anvil Crawler]

You would not believe this but we can see the developing CU Field to our North West at present, things looking up, we have decided against the Guthrie Storms as they look high based and we have a nice clear slot to our North West from here, great road options in the Caprock area.

NetWeather Team

Well it looks like things are looking good and patience is paying off as MD had just been issued for where we are http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0743.html

[wolves78]

you guys stay put for now you could be looking at your first tornado since you have been there yesterday you only just missed out

ozzie hope you are enjoying every minuet you have been there so far but most of all you lot take care and be safe

[londonsnow]

sounds very exciting indeed. looks like staying put may have been a good call. just dont drink too many buds! cant wait to get out there next year! keep safe guys

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys, Yes things feel so right this afternoon, we now have temps of 90f and Dewpoints near 60f, we have quite a bit of Chaser Convergance here in the Car Park in Childress, Skywarn spotters and other US Chasers are amazed at our equipment and look like they are going to tag along with us today as they have'nt got Barons and are blown away with it, nice talking with them about past Tornado Expereinces, kind of reminds me of the Jaws Scene when they were talking about their Shark Attacks :lol: :lol: Nice CU Field now moving near to us and things kicking off way out west coming towards us, i'd expec t this Chase to be a 6-8Pm jobby. But could have better photo shots due to nothing firing early. Will keep you updated.

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

May I ask where you are located at this moment in time?

Edit: nm Paul just answered that :lol:

[wolves78]

WFUS53 KPAH 032045

TORPAH

MOC023-032115-

/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0064.060503T2043Z-060503T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

343 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 337 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO

NEAR HIGHWAYS PP AND 67...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ASH HILL AND ROMBAUER

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

LAT...LON 3679 9054 3665 9040 3676 9020 3692 9029

[Paul Sherman]

Well guys Ozzie here and TS watch 285 has just been issued for our area and thing are looking up.

[londonsnow]

May I ask where you are located at this moment in time?

Edit: nm Paul just answered that :lol:

Childress is under 100 miles from Amarillo, so if the chase takes you north west later at least we'll all know what you'll be singing :lol: