Us Chase Day 5 Discussion - 4th May 2006

[Paul Sherman]

Well another Day another Risk area, which is right where we are, so we will probably jaunt up to Childress and meet up with the other convoy again, same things could happen again today so if you have any target areas you think we may need to take note of please feel free to post up, we will have good Wifi access again tomorrow as we will be in Childress early afternoon or early evening for you guys.

Lets try and bag Ozzie a Nado on his Birthday

Paul Sherman

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Happy Birthday Ozzie!! One to remember either way! ...

[Gorky]

Today is a real complicated setup, what with the immense convection yesterday creating some interesting possibilites with outflow boundaries all over the place. We saw yesterday what happened when an outflow boundary plunged south and draggeed the Kent County storm with it. I'd say Abilene for a start location today, but thing are certain to change close to the time things get started. I'll probably refine this later though B) I'm currently 2 for 2 on predicting initiation locations, and I think today is going to end that 'streak'

You could always catch a plane back and chase the UK btw looking at the Estofex forecast Supercells, MCS' and possibility of tornadoes forecast in the UK by Estofex for today. I might be a bit quiet if things get active close to me as I'll probably go chasing too...

[Anvil Crawler]

Happy Birthday Ozzie!! One to remember either way! ...

Thankyou S~b,What a day it was yesterday whe had the mother of all supercells and it was phonemenal.here a couple of pics.

[Louby]

You guys are getting the sort of shots I can only dream about, lucky things you!

[Paul Sherman]

MAY THE 4TH BE WITH YOU B)

Right guys we have awoken in Snyder to another Moderate Risk and once agian we only have 80 miles to our chosen Target City for today which is STERLING CITY, Today is going to be a lot like yesterday and i am hopeful we can get on these things when they start initiating and get some Convection Shots for you before they become 65,000 feet monster with 100 mile across Anvils. Any right Moving (NW To SE) Storms today have the Chance to become Tornadic

From the SPC

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0742 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW AND S CNTRL

TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL AND SW

TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND TN VLY TO

THE SRN APLCNS...

...SYNOPSIS...

WEAK...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS

PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR 48. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN

CONFINED TO THE DIFFLUENT SRN BRANCH THAT WILL EXTEND E/NE INTO THE

SRN PLNS...DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL/SRN CA CLOSED LOW.

AT LWR LEVELS...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM LOW

NOW CROSSING ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS S/SE INTO THE SRN

PLNS...THE MID/LWR MS VLYS AND THE ERN GRT LKS. EFFECTIVE COLD

FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED S INTO CNTRL

TX/SE OK AND CNTRL AR TODAY BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT

MCSS. FARTHER E...EXPECT WEAK WARM FRONT THAT HELPED SPAWN STORMS

IN MO/AR AND THE LWR TN MS VLY YESTERDAY WILL REDEVELOP E TOWARD THE

SRN APLCNS AND WEAKEN.

...S CNTRL TX INTO SE NM...

DISSIPATING NRN/CNTRL TX MCS HAS LEFT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN/SRN HILL COUNTRY W ACROSS THE

EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR MAF. THE WRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE

A BIT N TODAY BEFORE BEING INTERCEPTED BY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOSING

S FROM NEAR LBB. THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES SHOULD MORE OR LESS STALL

ALONG ROUGHLY A WNW/ESE AXIS FROM NEAR MAF TO NEAR SJT ...AND LIKELY

WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST PRESENCE OF AN UPR LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER SW

NM/NRN SONORA THAT SHOULD REACH W CNTRL AND SW TX BY LATE IN THE

DAY. SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL BE STRONG IN WAKE OF

MCS DEBRIS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY W INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN/SE NM.

QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY PRESENT AS FAR W AS

DRT/SJT...AND SOME WWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE LIKELY WILL OCCUR INVOF

STALLING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. THUS... EXPECT

THAT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000

J/KG LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING.

COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY...WEAK BUT INCREASING LARGE SCALE

ASCENT...AND 30+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS

WITH BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. IN ADDITION...ASSUMING

THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES DO INDEED BECOME NEARLY

STATIONARY...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY

DISCRETE RIGHT-MOVING STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF MODERATE SLY

LLJ...AND EWD PROGRESSION OF SAME AS UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD ALL

SUGGEST THAT THE TX STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX. THIS

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE E/SE ACROSS S CNTRL AND PERHAPS SE TX THROUGH

EARLY FRIDAY

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

great pics there ozzie and happy birthday mate what a way to spend it aswell

the lack of replys ATM is due to us lot here looking out for our own storms

Edited May 4, 2006 by wolves78

[the_white_stuff]

Thankyou S~b,What a day it was yesterday whe had the mother of all supercells and it was phonemenal.here a couple of pics.

whats that in foreground? A dog???

[kold weather]

Yep very nice image there Ozzie!

Anyway todays best set-up looks like occuring over central Texas so thats where I'd go and then see what happens from there. As per normal I like to start with present condtions. There is a mass of cliud to the north of Texas which is supressing the chances for anywhere north of Texas. However over Texas and the convective cloud from last night seems to have cleared away from this region. Cloud over OK is producing some moderate bursts of heavy rain. Also worth noting some small but potent cells nearby the gulf coast.

Obs suggests temps generally close to the 80's with dew-points close tio the 70's in many area sof the state. This already yeilds massive amounts of cape, upto 3000kjs now the cloud has cleared. LI according to the 12z obs were at -5 and also worth saying there was a cap present over the region as well according to those same 12z obs which is resulting in some good condtions at the moment.

Modles expect the cape levels to rise a little more before stablising at roughly 2-3500kjs of cape. This is more then enough for severe thunderstorms to form. Lower parts upto 750mbs are currently fairly moist, with a drier patch above that. As with yesterday its worth saying that laspe rates are pretty steep over the plains in general, though less so over Texas, the 12z obs do suggest they are still at 19c from the 850-600mbs level. As per recent days, any severe storms will likely have some very large hail. Trigger, should occur via low level convergance that occurs nearby the frontal system, coupled with heating should lead to some decent convection. Still the 12z obs do suggest that the convective temperature is presently at 31C and while this will lower as moisture moves back into the region and raises the wet-bulb profile.

There is plenty of deep layer shear present across Texas during the afternoon period, all thanks to a jet streak moving across the area, expected shear levels at 35-40kts, which is good enough for some decent supercells when coupled with some high levels of cape.

However the models are suggesting there is going to be very little low leve shear indeed, which is never a great thing when looking for tornadoes!

Still there probably will be some tornadoes and hail looks, once again (as per normal it seems!) looks like being a large threat. Good luck today everyone!!!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Thankyou S~b,What a day it was yesterday whe had the mother of all supercells and it was phonemenal.here a couple of pics.

3 great pics but I love the last one best, amazing!

[tinybill]

evening looking at at the rardar looks like there top area of interest 1 near hot springs,

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?ri...1101111&loop=no

and the other place is near atlanta

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...1101111&loop=no

Edited May 4, 2006 by tinybill

[wolves78]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 288

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

NORTHERN LOUISIANA

NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF EL

DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF

ABILENE WNW TO NEAR BIG SPRING AND FARTHER W TO E OF HOBBS NM. A

DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF SANDERSON NWD TO W OF MIDLAND. THE

WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN

THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8

C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THE 18Z

RAOB FROM MIDLAND STILL SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB

ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG HEATING OF THE

BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. RECENT VISIBLE

IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS OVER

PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER

FLOW...PRESENCE OF CAP...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGEST

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN

HEATING WILL HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO

INITIATE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS THROUGH 3 KM

WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 KT

THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IMPLIED BY THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

[Gorky]

Just got in and taken a look at the latest data. I see no reason to change from my inital thoughts about Abilene. Looks to be some CU fields a little to the west which are likely going to be the start of tonights action. There is a MD out for the area and I'd expect a Svr TS box to go up for the area within the next hour or so. Again, tornado threat should be marginal but that hasn't stopped you so far My tip for the night is keep a close eye on the radars, and watch for any outflow boundaries, as that is what gifted you your funnel (I'll play safe as it hasn't technically been confirmed yet ) It was quite amazing watching the boundary propogate south on grlevel3 and just whip the 2 southerly cells into classic rotating supercells as it passed through within a few frames. Good luck with todays chase!

Edited May 4, 2006 by Gorky

[Themightyimp]

If possible,could someone post some sites where I can keep track of what's going on please?

Sorry if this posting is in the wrong place.

Edited May 4, 2006 by Themightyimp

[Paul]

This page is a good place to start

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usalerts

[fuzion]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

this is good aswell

[Themightyimp]

Thankyou for those.

[Gorky]

Theres a huge cell east of San Angelo at the moment. BR at 72.5Dbz and VIL upto 72.5kg/m2. Algorithms predicting 4" hail at the moment with this cell!

[pottyprof]

happy biffday ozzie.. may the chase be a cool one!! .. just hold the beers for a couple more hours..

[Gorky]

Those storms in McCulloch, Concho and Brady counties are showing obscene sized hail on Grlevel 3. I'm surprised to not see that many hail reports from the SPC regarding these cells. Maybe the area is just very rural. I know if I was chasing it, I'd stay well away from the core

These look like the best cells of the day so far with 1 tornado report. I know the guys were based up in Childress again today which is a bti north. Hopefully they've gotten South fast enough. If not theres a fair number of areas to the west which are developing nice storms now so not a total loss. I'm going to assume by the forum silence that they are mid chase on those awesome cells! :- )

[Gorky]

Storm with strong rotation and classic hook echo about to enter Seminole. This is near the NM border on the most recent set of cells to blow up but if that ain't tornadoing now I'll be a little surprised

Edited May 5, 2006 by Gorky

[Paul Sherman]

We got on the Soon to be Mason County Supercell just east of San Angelo just as it was developing, pictures over on Ukww show what appears to be a weak Tornado that formed about 500 metres in a Field opposite us under a rotating Wall Cloud, I have this on Video Camera and will upload when we get a minute, the Video Clips will have to wait for a down day at the Mo. Monster Storm until 8Pm when we left it near Mason. Currently In Brady (Tx) and will push North West tomorrow to be west of Lubbock.

Paul Sherman