Us Chase Day 7 - Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Currently sitting in Brownwood in readiness for today. Looks like we will drop South a tad to be within touching distance of the Risk which again has the potential to be Upgraded to a Moderate with 5% Tornado Risk. In Fact the SPC Has just updated and shifted the Slight right over us here. I don' think we will be on the Tail end Charlie (Southern Most Storm) today as we need to re-position tomorrow for Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. So a down day looks likely on Sunday (Phew) never thought i would ever say that. But we are totally knackered and need the rest, it should give us a chance to upload some pretty amazing Video footage for you all. So we have plotted a Target for Today which is just North of San Antonio. If you have anything you think we need to know please post your thoughts for today.

Many Thanks

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

You may find storm development quite close to Brownwood in 2-3 hours. The activity further south may also be severe, but current radar and surface obs suggest a developing front lying E-W just to the north of Brownwood towards Waco. Especially as you are planning a long drive north Sunday, you might want to consider drifting east towards perhaps Clifton TX northwest of Waco. From there you could catch the north-south interstate through DFW and OKC and I assume you're heading for Russell to Hill City KS for Monday?

[Paul Sherman]

Now In Brady (Tx) and under a new Mesoscale Discussion area, just seen an amazing Cell pop to our West with clear skies in between. could be a goer as it's on the frontal boundary.

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

Good position, I just saw an updated satellite and radar, cell potential in that area appears good, especially considering the moist conditions after the heavy rains last night in the region. I believe a major outbreak will develop between Brady and Temple later this afternoon. Other zones will also become active, but this may be the general area to chase today.

Radar link for the area:

<< http://www.weatherimages.org/radar/ksjt.shtml >>

Brady is in the county southwest of Brownwood (it's the county seat at the confluence of the various roads in that county).

As of 1850z when I posted this, severe cells developing west of Brady near Sonora. The smaller cell to the southwest could become tornadic. The image will update so later readers will find this radar probably developing into larger clusters of severe storms.

Edited May 6, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[wolves78]

sat image

[NL]

Tornado watch issued... Well out of the way of the boys....

Expires 5:00 PM CDT on May 06, 2006

urgent - immediate broadcast requested

Tornado Watch number 300

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1125 am CDT Sat may 6 2006

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Tornado Watch for portions of

southern Louisiana

southeastern Mississippi

coastal waters

Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1125 am until

500 PM CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind

gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these

areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 70 statute

miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of LaFayette

Louisiana to 50 miles southeast of Gulfport Mississippi. For a

complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline

update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings.

Discussion... squall line is expected to continue ewd through srn la

and extreme srn MS. Other storms may develop ahead of the squall

line as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Vertical shear

profiles are supportive of organized storm structures including Bow

echoes and supercells. The stronger storms will pose a threat for

damaging wind... large hail and possibly isolated tornadoes.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface

wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to

500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

[Roger J Smith]

2015z 6 May

No doubt the team have taken up a position near or south of the developing supercell currently located just north of Junction TX, about an hour's drive south of Brady. Nothing else showing on radar within striking distance. This cell may begin to move fairly rapidly east soon, currently drifting along at 20-25 knots towards the east.

[NL]

Evening/ Afternoon Roger.. U say the lads should head up north to Hill City Kansas for monday.. just that ive been lookin at the charts on wetterzentale and they predict just a weak affair moving through with moderate rain nothing significant..

[Roger J Smith]

I was mostly going by what Paul said the team was planning to do -- the forecast models have been showing some risk of severe storms in KS and nw OK on Monday, but also an area of TRW+ in the Texas panhandle. We'll see what they decide after today's action, could be that they will decide not to go that far north with some chance of more action in Texas tomorrow. The Monday-Tuesday scenario is not too clear yet, but I would rate it at slight risk for western half of KS and nw quarter of OK based on what I've seen of 12z model runs. Texas is not closing down however, and the recent activity there provides low level moisture so it needs to be considered whether any move is required. Would base more on 00z model runs as the western U.S. front is very slowly developing today. (I am looking out my window at part of it, nothing much going on here).

[NL]

Wetterzentrale still going for severe storm activity for the 10th.. i remember Paul commenting on this before he left Blighty's shores so looking very promising indeed!...

[NL]

Storm passing from Brady into Mason county ..Hail 3" tops at 45000ft VIL at 71kg/m2

[NL]

Tornado vortex south west of Austin... Hopefully the lads have raced south from Brownwood to catch this storm

[Paul Sherman]

Got on at Least 2 Supercells today but very strange things were happening today, they exploded in under 30 minutes up to 50,000 feet and fell apart for some reason maybe because the lack of low level shear was not evident, currently in Brady (Tx) AGAIN !! :blink: :lol: Will be moving North towards Abilene tomorrow as SPC Has a Slight Risk in the Panhandles and as it is on the way we will see what happens.

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

glad to hear from you at such a silly hour :blink:

been waiting all night for summet from you guys take care you lot

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Wolves Oh don't get me wrong we had 2 Supercells today. JUST THE 2 !! :blink: :lol:

Will post pictures in a wee bit, going out quickly for BBQ Ribs.

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

7 May _ 0350z

From the 00z progs just out, looks good tomorrow afternoon for areas west and northwest of Lubbock. Then on Monday, with a rather weak cold front across the Oklahoma panhandle and Kansas from s.w. to north central, the risk zone seems likely to be centered near Garden City KS but may include parts of the Texas panhandle again.

Haven't been there, but the OK panhandle features semi-arid canyon type terrain on a small scale. I was in Garden City KS once, TRW+ all night. Then 102 F the next day as we travelled east. Not likely to become a big tourist destination. :blink:

[Pickles]

Glad it is going well for you guys, the pictures are amazing, I wish I was out there with you all.

Best of luck with the rest of the chase.

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks Guys, yes tomorrow is now NOT A re-positioning day but a jaunt to Clovis on the New Mexico and TX Panhandle border as Roger Says Just North West of Lubbock. Cape up to 3000kg later in the afternoon will kick off Supercells once again, if this comes off it will be our 7th straight day of Supercells, unprecedented and something not many people ever get to see.

Paul Sherman