Us Chase Day 8 - Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Overnighting here in Brady (Tx) and have a long haul North Tomorrow, probably leave about 9am and head up the Panhandles towards Kansas. So what should have been a Positioning Day has now turned into a Slight Risk and as we are effectively going that way anyway why not. My first day of Driving so i hope the other 3 are

a. Well Insured

b. Ready for some Dirt Tracks in Kansas :blink: :lol:

Again if any of you have any virtual Chase Targets please post on here.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

Infra-red imagery currently suggesting very little in the way of cloud over the plains apart from a weak line of showers moving into western OK and Kansas. not much to say about the obs simply because its still night-time over in the states!

Cape levels are pretty good, with models generally agreeing now on about 2000kjs being present. this should be more then for some impressive cells I'd expect. Something that does need to be mentioned is that there will be a pretty strong cap present during the early afternoon hours over the target area. Still be the late afternoon period there should be a upper trough moving in from the WNW which should remove the cap eastwards and allow something to form when comibned with a already moderatly moist atmopshere and solar heating that will occur during the day.

I must admit though to be being slightly concerend about the shear levels higher up though. It's very marginal indeed at 500mbs with probably about 20-25kts of deep shear present. Saying that on the upside the mid-levl shear down to 850mbs is also expected to give about 20-25kts which I feel should be enough to get rotation going, and therefore probably enough for supercells. Storm motion expected to be ESE today according to the models.

Large hail once again, as is normal it seems with supercells, is looking pretty large, though the tornado risk is looking pretty low I'd say, though you can never rule out anything in the plains i suppose!

Still to be honest today isn't the best day, the best shear and also general instablity is to the south over Texas BUT it remians under the influance of the upper ridge and therefore you've got a cap on, while Kansas has generally less unstable condtions, it hasn't got the best of the instablity condtions.

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for That Darren, These East South East Moving storms are beginning to bug me a bit, I just want a SW-NE Mover so we can track underneath and not get wrap around (Backbuilding) we are constantly having to check to our west for rotation for Hook echoes on radar, and you know what could happen there!! :o

Paul S

[stevestorms]

Overnighting here in Brady (Tx) and have a long haul North Tomorrow, probably leave about 9am and head up the Panhandles towards Kansas. So what should have been a Positioning Day has now turned into a Slight Risk and as we are effectively going that way anyway why not. My first day of Driving so i hope the other 3 are

a. Well Insured

b. Ready for some Dirt Tracks in Kansas

Again if any of you have any virtual Chase Targets please post on here.

Regards

Paul Sherman

Hey mate glad we got our driving done last night :o still dont know what happened yesterday had a real bad feeling everytime the cells got all soft around the edges !! they looked so hard at one time then when you had chased for hundreds of miles to get on them they broke up!! still not sure of exact target today but prob north of Amilrillo for starters cheers, steve chesk this link to see where we are at anytime!!!!

http://www.ukstorm.net/ta2006/aprs.html

Edited May 7, 2006 by Paul

[Paul]

Cheers Steve, cool link that!

[stevestorms]

stopped in Amilrillo for gas and and a bite now heading a tad north of Amilrillo and wait for Baron to show something! great spider lightning ozzie well done mate, hope Paul is getting some lightning results too catch yer later.

[Guest Mr_S]

Excellent link there Steve!! Is that you sitting on your I have a problem doing nothing again?

[Hoody_89®]

Overnighting here in Brady (Tx) and have a long haul North Tomorrow, probably leave about 9am and head up the Panhandles towards Kansas. So what should have been a Positioning Day has now turned into a Slight Risk and as we are effectively going that way anyway why not. My first day of Driving so i hope the other 3 are

a. Well Insured

b. Ready for some Dirt Tracks in Kansas

Again if any of you have any virtual Chase Targets please post on here.

Regards

Paul Sherman

hey, i've been following your progress through the week,, sounds like you've had an amazing time..

thanks for the amazing photos too-awesome..

enjoy yourselves,

stay safe!

Hoody89

[wolves78]

hope you lot were in the rite area in the last 3 hours

2115 3 SW WALLACE WALLACE KS 3888 10163 TORNADO OBSERVED FROM 412 PM CDT TO 415 PM CDT (GLD)

2129 6 SSE WALLACE WALLACE KS 3883 10155 TORNADO OBSERVED FROM 322 PM MDT TO 329 PM MDT. DESCRIBED AS A THIN ROPE AND NEARLY STATIONARY. (GLD

hail reports

2112 175 1 SE WALLACE WALLACE KS 3890 10158 (GLD)

2150 175 12 SSW RUSSELL SPRINGS LOGAN KS 3875 10126 5 MILE STRETCH OF GOLF BALL HAIL ON HIGHWAY 25. (GLD)

2154 125 9 W RUSSELL SPRINGS LOGAN KS 3891 10134 ON HIGHWAY 40. (GLD)

wind reports

2115 UNK 8 S WALLACE WALLACE KS 3880 10159 POWER POLES DOWN. (GLD)

Edited May 7, 2006 by wolves78

[Paul Sherman]

Currently Sat about 12 Miles South of Amarillo (Yes the road is on the way to Amarillo) Watching a few cells just to our North West and Steve is in Dalhart on the Stom above ours We have Pm'd his team and it looks like we could end up in the Big Texan Tonight for a good session And i think we will be in convoy tomorrow to Kansas, these storms are doing absolutely nothing today, in fact i have seen worse in England during the winter, see USA Gets rubbish showers as well. Still we will sit this out for a few more hours.

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

Currently Sat about 12 Miles South of Amarillo (Yes the road is on the way to Amarillo) Watching a few cells just to our North West and Steve is in Dalhart on the Stom above ours We have Pm'd his team and it looks like we could end up in the Big Texan Tonight for a good session And i think we will be in convoy tomorrow to Kansas, these storms are doing absolutely nothing today, in fact i have seen worse in England during the winter, see USA Gets rubbish showers as well. Still we will sit this out for a few more hours.

Paul Sherman

TY for the update paul just leave the tequala alone we need you for tmoras storms in OK

have fun you guys

looks like the main risk for tday was in NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH CAROLINA

but its only one day event there stay put sounds like you will after the pub crawl