Us Chase Day 9 - Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Hi all tomorow is a tricky one, SPC Has the Slight Risk over Kansas but we are not convinced at all by this. Moisture will return to the Northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow and we should have temps back in the low to mid 80's with good Dew Points, after todays cool 70f this will be a welcome return, not convinced by the 40's & 50's Dewpoints in Kansas but 500mb winds look better up on the Colorado & Kansas Border, so we will probably crunch data in the morning and possibly drift towards Woodward in the OK Panhandle and see what occurs, ran into Todd Thorn from Storm Chase Adventure Tours in the Big Texan (I did'nt try the 72oz Steak) and they are hinting that if things kick off down here things could be severe with 50kt low level wind shear which should be sufficient to Spin those Supercells. Tricky one this so if you have any thoughts please post.

Paul Sherman

[stevestorms]

Hi Paul and gang, we are in Woodward tonight after a 500 mile chase today into new mexico and out again across the Ok panhandle ending up with a oky dokey storm which I guess stopped the dat from being a almost bust day some nice pics got of towering Q but no lightning pics as the rain was with us as we travelled along side our storm for hours mostly in the rain !!

tomorrow or today as it is we will also be checking out data as im sure things will change after todays Kansas Storms. night all zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Anvil Crawler]

Hi Steve looks like we are gonna stay put in amarillo and see how things develop tomorrow but midweek is looking rather tatsy.

[TEITS]

Sorry for being off topic but 72oz Steak how on earth could anyone eat all that!!

[Gorky]

The latest SPC highlights two chase areas really.. Central-Eastern KS/ Southern NE or Central TX Eastward through to the US East Coast. Lots of chase country available to you. As tomorrows chase is likely going to be in the area between both these chase locations I don't think that should affect your decision too much. I'd have thought that Kansas chase country would be best, but then the road network in Central Texas might be better. Either way, if you are still in Amarillo, I think that you are too far West, and should think about moving either NE to Kansas or East to Central Texas. From there, you can probably narrow down a start location closer to initiation...

[stevestorms]

Sorry for being off topic but 72oz Steak how on earth could anyone eat all that!!

Hi EITS, you would be suprised they even had a kid that managed it! and if yer eat it all in an hour its free! KEEP IT I SAY but they have a list on the wall of everyone who has scoffed the beast in 60mins!

Ok Today being Monday the 8th see paul ozzie and Matt are looking at maybe red river in Texas ? as temp is really good there and maybe moisture could be better there as well I think if we were down in Texas we might swing that way, however we are in Woodward Oklahoma and after being defend last night by 4 huge Thunderbolts with our ears still ringing I think we at this moment in time will head North central Kansas and Russel on the east /west i70 wish temps were slightly better but I guess there are other things that kick tstorms off so we are going for the highest Tornado possibility-------as per normal

Pic is of a very picturest Tstorm cell that we chased along the lenth of the Oklahoma Panhandle which eventually joined with the Kansas cell late last night.

[wolves78]

hiya you guys hope tday is thus far proveing to be decent

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 082040Z - 082245Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE

THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND

WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO

THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY

BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK

ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS

IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS

WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING

INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE

CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO

WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED

TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER

SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS

EVENING.

[wolves78]

if you lot get wi-fi plz let us know current location

[Roger J Smith]

Not sure if the team has the inclination to drive long distances to find severe storms, but this situation will become quite mobile tomorrow. I think Tuesday's main round of severe storms may begin in e KS-OK into w MO but may eventually transition into s/c MO and northern, western Arkansas. That's quite a drive from western Kansas.

Then on Wednesday, the progs are suggesting a more severe outbreak with a classic battle between the moist Gulf air and strong cold fronts drawing in cold air from central Canada. This battleground will probably be strongest across KY, TN, n MS and n AL.

After that, the western theatre re-activates Thursday into Friday. I think the Wednesday action may be worth chasing despite the distances, F2-3 tornadic potential seems almost guaranteed with this set-up, would suggest Tupelo MS to Birmingham AL as the target zone later Wednesday, Tulsa n.e. to Joplin, then over to Jonesboro in n.e. AR for Tuesday.

[Paul Sherman]

Well today was a Bust, well kind of. We drove up to Medicine Lodge (Kansas) and as we pulled up there a Tornado Watch was issued for our county. Talk about the Kiss of Death, we waited and waited and waited but nothing, not even a worthy picture. So we are in Greensburg Deep South Kansas at the Mo with some pretty impressive Lightning out west at the mo. So all was not lost, as Roger says Tomorrow looking very good and also Wednesday for Tornado Risks, so plenty to look forward to.

Regards

Paul & Team

[stevestorms]

Sorry to hear that paul we had a good day tstorm after tstorm in Kansas and we are still under severe tstorm warning the winds are like being in a hurricane constant high base lightning crashing over head hear in pratt kansas where it is now02:12 in the moring we were withing a few miles of a tornado in dodge city earlier we think we got a peek in the lightning but no claim on that one ! running from 3" hail in the same area, highlite of the day was the chase of a great cell towards dodge city which developed a great base a few funnels and a wall cloud before collasing on its self, we have driven another 500miles or so today heading probably into Oklahoma tomorrow will see in a few hours what SPC say, so tirrrrrred zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz