Us Chase Day 14 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like our little break in activities will be shortlived, tomorrow sees action kicking off again and elevated Supercells are anticipated, should have great views of this one as Dewpoints are much lower. The problem we have is this, we are currently Sunbathing in Sherman (Tx) with a Slight risk on top of us for tomorrow but a higher risk may be needed for further west of here, what to do, if you have any thoughts please share. I have also included pictures of our positioning under last weeks Supercells to show you how vital Baron's is regarding GPS Positioning.

- 2nd May 2006 Turkey (Tx) Supercell what produced a Tornado, we are the white brick

- 3rd May 2006 Kent County (Tx) Supercell the red highlight means county Tornado Warned

- 4th May 2006 Runnells County (Tx) Supecell sitting in the Optimum position waiting for it to drop and cross us.

- 5th May 2006 Coleman County (Tx) Supercell which produced a Tornado

- 6th May 2006 Kimble County (Tx) Supercell

- 9th May 2006 Coal County (Ok) Supercell taking cover as the Bears Cage passed over us in Coalgate, Tornado Close by

- 10th May 2006 Madison County (MS) How do we escape this, how many Supercells can you see?

Regards

Paul Sherman

[The PIT]

Don't ask me but I'm going to rig a Star Trek teleport system for you. So you can have instant transport to the biggest storms. Just wear a helmit in case theres large Hail Stones.

[Gorky]

Looking at those screenshots, does baron system only give composite reflectivity? If so how do you access individual titlts whilst on the move? I'd think that observing hooks on the lowest levels of storms would be a great way of identifying the best storm to intercept. Is that just a limitation of the barons system?

Anyway.. Good luck tomorrow. I'll be hoping for some more action closer to home again. I even saw some weak rotation in a thunderstorm today

[Paul Sherman]

Hi, Yes that is one of 2 problems with the Barons, the updates are every 5 minutes which is pretty damn good, but if the Storm hooks obviously we need to keep our wits about us, the other problem is like what happened the other day, a Storm we were closing in on had Tornadoed in Mississippi but during the 5 minute update it was on the ground for about 3 minutes, obviously we saw no Meso indication as it was during the 5 minute update, but as you know their is nothing like watching the sky for yourself and knowing what the storm is going to do, be it a right mover or left split.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Hi Paul..

facinating stuff.. hmm with all thoses cells around its a what to do situation.. LOL..

i thought it was a real time data grabber.. although 5 mins is pretty good as real time.. just shows that more data throughput is needed in these sorts of situations..

nothing better than an experienced eye i suppose..

Paul

[Roger J Smith]

13 May 0400z

Full moon tonight, and that's Jupiter right beside it.

Had a look at the current situation and 00z progs, it does seem that Saturday will be a day of intense heat building up with a weak frontal wave and some local supercell development possible if it can consolidate in the 40 C (104 F) plus fairly dry heat. Would be most likely in the San Angelo region, will post an update after 1500z should I stumble out of bed at such an ungodly hour on a Saturday. Seems like a day of interesting if not awfully intense thunderstorm development, as you say, probably good for pictures.

Sunday looks more active although quite a ways south.

This month strikes me as being more typical of midsummer severe weather than classic spring severe weather, the usual battleground in KS-NE-MO-IA has been relatively quiet for May. Split flow over North America is keeping storminess either north or south of the usual maximum thunderstorm area. A tornado was reported the other day in southern Manitoba, probably an F1 from the damage reports.

[crimsone]

Full moon tonight, and that's Jupiter right beside it.

Erm, That's not good. Clear skies do not a stormchase make! lol

Seriously though, this thread's been given the wrong date

Hope you have a great day.

As an aside...

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES HAS LONGWAVE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG SW ACROSS TEXAS AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO E

PAC. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION CROSSING CENTRAL TEXAS

LACKS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR FRONTOGENESIS AT THIS TIME. UPPER WIND

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO

LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON AS GREAT LAKES VORTEX SINKS SLIGHTLY SE

BEFORE TURNING NE MON. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW CONVECTIVE

DEBRIS FROM LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND LOW

PRES 1007 MB OVER E PAC SUPPLYING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WRN

GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MAKES THIS MOISTURE AVAILABLE CONGRUENT

WITH ARRIVAL OF TROUGH IN NW GULF. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS

AND PRECIPITATION SUN AS FRONT APPROACHES SE TEXAS COAST.

HIGH PRES 1015 MB OVER CENTRAL GULF SLIDES NE OF BASIN TONIGHT

AND INTO ATLC BY SUN FORCED BY INCOMING FRONT.

[Paul Sherman]

Nice CU Field developing to our South at present, we are STILL In Sherman (Tx) And if things pop today we have the luxury of not lugging our luggage around, we will use the Days Inn as a Base and return again tonight, Do not think Steve and Co will make it to our location for a chase convoy as we received a text from them earlier, if things do not kick today then we should get a great Lightning display tonight, possibly moving to our 7th State tomorrow for some New Mexico Chasing in the hills.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

13 May 1830z

Just a slight risk of TRW+ development later to the west of San Angelo, pretty much bone dry across Texas with the exception of one or two build-ups in the Pecos valley. I think there may be one cell of interest eventually, but it would be a 3-4 hour drive.

[stevestorms]

where supposed to be meeting up with matt pete paul and ozzie tday but the weather had other plans for us and we had to make a change of direction,In the absence of convincing outcome for chasing all the way other to the east of Texas and beyond today we see a slim chance of catching some lightning tonight east of the dry line so we have landed in 96c heat in Abilene Tx where Qu is now forming to our west, in any event we will be better placed for the days ahead. cheers all Steve.

[Paul Sherman]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch No 346 Issued for Our Area, we are in Grayson County and just missed the 1st Severe Cell that went just 8 miles to our east. Still this warning is in effect for the next 7 hours.

Paul Sherman

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 346

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1015 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1015 PM

UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND

POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR

TWO ACROSS WW AREA AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ENTRANCE REGION OF 80 KT NW

FLOW JET STREAK IN MO/AR. ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY

ELEVATED BUT COULD EVOLVE INTO A NEAR-SURFACE BASED CLUSTER OR TWO

THAT FORWARD PROPAGATES E/SE TOWARD SHV. ANY DISCRETE

...NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR A

TORNADO DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY EXPECTED

TO FAIRLY QUICKLY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 32520.

[crimsone]

Nice! Should be fun

I've been itching to ask this, but can we have a photo of the damage to the car? lol

[Paul Sherman]

Lol, You know the funny thing is that this year we have yet to damage the car, this time last year we had huge cracks in the Windscreen, the only hail damage we have had so far is just about Golf Ball sized hail hitting us in Mississippi on Wednesday, still 5 days to go so we may play with the Hail Shafts on purpose in the next few days.

Paul S

[Andy Bown]

still 5 days to go so we may play with the Hail Shafts on purpose in the next few days.

to /\

I have found out speaking with friends today that Westbury narrowly missed a hail shaft during last Wednesday's stormy evening. There was heavy hail in Trowbridge (4 miles away) and it worked it's way into the Somerset border just a few miles away.