Latest Arctic Report 12/05/06

[carinthian]

Latest reports from the Arctic sea ice areas report a general reduction compared to this time last year,particulary the continued low ice retention in the Barent Sea. The Arctic Basin and the East Siberian sectors show ice cover to retain the long term so called average !

May is the month of long shadows and increasing sunlight in the high Arctic ( generally the ocean has a full ice cover at this time of year above 85 degress N) Lower than average temps for the first part of May are presently being recorded here. Greenland currently is increasing its percentage of the worlds permanent ice retention as the rest of the world decreases ( as a meteorologist this intriques me greatly ) In the short term the positioning of high pressure zones continue to be removed from its normal latitudes. I feel there has been a continued marked change in the normal zonal flow since February 2005. High level winds have been pushed much further south as would be expected with a fairly prolonged dominence of negative Arctic Oscillation values ( high pressure influence further north, even in summer ).

C

[John Cox]

Hi Carinth,

More greenland ice, less elsewhere.

You are teasing.

Your report is intersting, but what is your analysis or conclusion or is it too early? Have you seen this situation at this time of year before?

Sorry for putting you on the spot.

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinthian

Thanks for another update

Agree very much with what you say and that the pattern change in zonal flow, overall, for the last year or so is and has been contributing to the present ice retention position - and the happy change in Greenlands fortunes, as you say.

Long may this zonal flow change continue

Tamara

Hi Carinth, Tamara,

Very interesting and intriguing indeed, is Greenland retaining more ice because of general cooling in that area? While the rest of the planet warms!

I expect some will argue that increased temperatures increase precipitation, so one would expect more snowfall over Greenland, thus increasing ice volumes. On the other hand, some unusually low temperatures have been recorded over the last 7 months, so it does get quite confusing.

But as you say, one thing does seem very apparent to those who regularly you’re your reports, Tamara, John Cox, Steve M, kold, and many others who have all talked about a general shift in high pressure blocking further north since Feb 2005.

Now the Azores high seems to be going Awol on an increasingly regular basis.

An interesting summer ahead if northern blocking is to be the norm, and definitely one I will enjoy if we get more fine clear sunny spells lake this week, courtesy of a ridging Greenland high. Lets hope this pattern continues in to winter 2006 / 2007.

Much more debate on this one I am sure.

Paul

[John Cox]

Hi Paul/Tamara,

The quiet Carinth,

He is like a magnet to us, isint he?

There are great meteorologists on nw but he and GP are ones (both very quiet posters) who intrigue me.

It is like they know so much but hold back a little.

Wish, technically, I understood it all, but it just means that next winter will be a very deciding one.

Carinth got it right last winter. He is our secret little gem.

[West is Best]

Latest reports from the Arctic sea ice areas report a general reduction compared to this time last year,particulary the continued low ice retention in the Barent Sea.

Hi Carinth,

Hopefully this thread will be as solidly scientific as its previoius incarnation was. Will be really good to see anomaly charts posted up, with sources. The ones I've seen do indeed paint a very very bleak picture, with the lowest ice levels in many parts of the arctic circle ever recorded for this time of year. A report in the Independent referred to this (http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article351135.ece) and some of the linked maps here from the NOAA make bleak viewing: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml

The sea ice trends in these maps are worrying - less obvious in the antarctic by the look of it, but very grim in the arctic. This is for April:

And April's sea ice trends in concentration:

At least the BBC are going to be running a season of programmes on climate change starting on May 24th. I really hope it's not too late, but fear it is.

[carinthian]

Hi Paul/Tamara,

The quiet Carinth,

He is like a magnet to us, isint he?

There are great meteorologists on nw but he and GP are ones (both very quiet posters) who intrigue me.

It is like they know so much but hold back a little.

Wish, technically, I understood it all, but it just means that next winter will be a very deciding one.

Carinth got it right last winter. He is our secret little gem.

Morning John,

Thanks for those supportive words on this subject. Its great to read the replies and thoughts of others who are interested in this topic.

In the late 70s, Greenland accounted for 10% of the worlds permanent ice cover. I would expect that percentage has increased over the past 20 years at the expense of summer time ice loss ,particularly in the Arctic Ocean and mountain glacier retreat in some parts of the world . The question we want to know was the record breaking cold reported in Greenland last October and the summer retention of snowfields on a great swathe of the Norwegian Alps a one off occurrance or a start of a new cooling trend . As you point out John, time will tell.

Paul C and Tamara have been watching the influence of the Greenland high over the past 15 months and I tend to agree with them ( this is where the answer lies ) My theory is that a prolonged so called " northern block" will push the boundry where Arctic Air meets the air from the warm continent to slightly lower latitudes,so preventing vigorouus frontogeneiss in the usual higher latitudes. The available energy is much less than should be and cyclonic activity is correspondingly feebler ?

Hope thats not to heavy Johnboy !

C

[Optimus Prime]

At least the BBC are going to be running a season of programmes on climate change starting on May 24th. I really hope it's not too late, but fear it is.

Oh, no! Not another load of overhyped media reaction please

Looking at this link;

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml

Looks as if the ice sheet is shifting in a different direction as down the coast of Greenland (?) the ice extent is much greater then that of September 2002.

I think you like making a mountain out of a mole hill, WIB. These changes are nothing new, it's happened before. Just like ice has extended, ice will shrink. Just like we had very cool winters in the 40's and 60's, we will have very mild ones are we all ready are.

This is global warming, but not the media hype as we know it, it's naturally contained.

Looks very ordinary to me.

Edited May 13, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[carinthian]

Oh, no! Not another load of overhyped media reaction please

Looking at this link;

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml

Looks as if the ice sheet is shifting in a different direction as down the coast of Greenland (?) the ice extent is much greater then that of September 2002.

I think you like making a mountain out of a mole hill, WIB. These changes are nothing new, it's happened before. Just like ice has extended, ice will shrink. Just like we had very cool winters in the 40's and 60's, we will have very mild ones are we all ready are.

This is global warming, but not the media hype as we know it, it's naturally contained.

Looks very ordinary to me.

Oh, no! Not another load of overhyped media reaction please :lol:

Looking at this link;

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml

Looks as if the ice sheet is shifting in a different direction as down the coast of Greenland (?) the ice extent is much greater then that of September 2002.

I think you like making a mountain out of a mole hill, WIB. These changes are nothing new, it's happened before. Just like ice has extended, ice will shrink. Just like we had very cool winters in the 40's and 60's, we will have very mild ones are we all ready are.

This is global warming, but not the media hype as we know it, it's naturally contained.

Looks very ordinary to me.

hI OP

Well researched there with a good reply.

Carinth

[John Cox]

Morning John,

Thanks for those supportive words on this subject. Its great to read the replies and thoughts of others who are interested in this topic.

In the late 70s, Greenland accounted for 10% of the worlds permanent ice cover. I would expect that percentage has increased over the past 20 years at the expense of summer time ice loss ,particularly in the Arctic Ocean and mountain glacier retreat in some parts of the world . The question we want to know was the record breaking cold reported in Greenland last October and the summer retention of snowfields on a great swathe of the Norwegian Alps a one off occurrance or a start of a new cooling trend . As you point out John, time will tell.

Paul C and Tamara have been watching the influence of the Greenland high over the past 15 months and I tend to agree with them ( this is where the answer lies ) My theory is that a prolonged so called " northern block" will push the boundry where Arctic Air meets the air from the warm continent to slightly lower latitudes,so preventing vigorouus frontogeneiss in the usual higher latitudes. The available energy is much less than should be and cyclonic activity is correspondingly feebler ?

Hope thats not to heavy Johnboy !

C

Hi carinth,

Not at all, that explains it nicely and I will be watching things carefully over the coming months.

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinth,

Hopefully this thread will be as solidly scientific as its previoius incarnation was. Will be really good to see anomaly charts posted up, with sources. The ones I've seen do indeed paint a very very bleak picture, with the lowest ice levels in many parts of the arctic circle ever recorded for this time of year. A report in the Independent referred to this (http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article351135.ece) and some of the linked maps here from the NOAA make bleak viewing: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml

The sea ice trends in these maps are worrying - less obvious in the antarctic by the look of it, but very grim in the arctic. This is for April:

And April's sea ice trends in concentration:

At least the BBC are going to be running a season of programmes on climate change starting on May 24th. I really hope it's not too late, but fear it is.

My theory is that a prolonged so called " northern block" will push the boundry where Arctic Air meets the air from the warm continent to slightly lower latitudes,so preventing vigorouus frontogeneiss in the usual higher latitudes. The available energy is much less than should be and cyclonic activity is correspondingly feebler ?

C

Hi Carinth, Tamara, Richard, John, everyone,

Some very interesting replies,

In My Onion, it seems the powers that be, are blaming or want to blame the accelerated ice melt over the Arctic Ocean solely on GW (for reasons of only which they know, although I have my views and suspicions on this, which I think are best kept to myself), but I will go as far as to say, in the near future (3 to 5 years) it will become very much more apparent to all as why this man made GW subject is being pursued with so much vigour at present, I will probably get shot down in flames for saying this. Don’t get me wrong I am not denying GW, anyway enough.

The continual reoccurrence and at times prolonged presence of northern blocking since the end of winter 2005 are IMO the main reason for this more sudden and unusually rapid ice melt over the high Arctic. It is normal to see shorter intervals of high latitude blocking during most seasons, but this has been more prolonged and is beginning to have dramatic effects up there now. While northern blocking is favourable for transferring colder air to our shores during winter, it is also very efficient in delivering warmer air to the high arctic, so yes it is warmer over the Arctic simply because of a the transfer and shifting about of warmer air currents.

We only missed a severe winter by cats whisker this year, as many of us know, may parts of near by continent and eastern Europe had one of their coldest winters in decades, but that’s going off the subject again.

Regards

Paul

Edited May 14, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[West is Best]

hI OP

Well researched there with a good reply.

Carinth

You and I clearly have a different definition of 'research' Posting one link from the NOAA and coming out with a statement that the ice is moving rather than disappearing isn't really a researched response to a serious issue imho?! The NOAA interrpret the data very differently viz that there's a serious issue here, with ice levels at unprecdently low levels for this time of year. OP. you say we've been here before. But in fact there's no evidence that we have, on either ice levels or ozone.

Paul - go on, give us your GW conspiracy theory. No-one here will criticise you just for coming out with it: indeed you'll probably have a quite a bit of support on here. I'd be interested to hear it!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

There's a subtle difference between discussing different interpretations of the same data, and cheap point scoring and side-swiping. I do hope this thread is going to display the former and completely avoid the latter.

[West is Best]

Point taken OON (sorry everyone if mine was a cheap side-swipe). Back to the debate ... I'd be interested in responses to the following 3 northern hemisphere sea ice charts which, to my eye, make very grave viewing indeed:

The Greenland sea ice area is even lower now than last year's record low for the region:

One could go on. I just think it looks dire.

[John Cox]

Hi Carinth, Tamara, Richard, John, everyone,

The continual reoccurrence and at times prolonged presence of northern blocking since the end of winter 2005 are IMO the main reason for this more sudden and unusually rapid ice melt over the high Arctic. It is normal to see shorter intervals of high latitude blocking during most seasons, but this has been more prolonged and is beginning to have dramatic effects up there now. While northern blocking is favourable for transferring colder air to our shores during winter, it is also very efficient in delivering warmer air to the high arctic, so yes it is warmer over the Arctic simply because of a the transfer and shifting about of warmer air currents.

We only missed a severe winter by cats whisker this year, as many of us know, may parts of near by continent and eastern Europe had one of their coldest winters in decades, but that's going off the subject again.

Regards

Paul

Morning Paul,

Now I understand why the ice is melting more rapidly in the arctic. Thanks for the lesson.

I agree that we just missed a classic winter. Folks dont know how close it really was.

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinth, Tamara, Richard, John, everyone,

Some very interesting replies,

In My Onion,

Hi John, i think i must have had a touch of the sun last week as well, but i think you know what i ment to say.

[carinthian]

Point taken OON (sorry everyone if mine was a cheap side-swipe). Back to the debate ... I'd be interested in responses to the following 3 northern hemisphere sea ice charts which, to my eye, make very grave viewing indeed:

The Greenland sea ice area is even lower now than last year's record low for the region:

One could go on. I just think it looks dire.

Hi West,

Caution here with these time comparison sea ice charts. During my time in the Met Office,it wasn,t until 1979 that Sun Synchronous Satellites (infra red Observations at the North Pole ) were received every 6 hours. Some of the data then produced some distorted pictures. Even in the early 80s as measurements became more precise, sea ice eddies producing slush around the edges of the ice caps were taken as measured sea ice area. Todays advanced technology makes the reading more accurate over a smaller time scale. However, as you point out there should be some concern, but dire is a bit of an exaggeration.

Cheers

Carinth.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Point taken OON (sorry everyone if mine was a cheap side-swipe). Back to the debate ... I'd be interested in responses to the following 3 northern hemisphere sea ice charts which, to my eye, make very grave viewing indeed:

One could go on. I just think it looks dire.

Hi West

I'll give it a go. On the face of it I agree it does not look good but IMO is not displaying the whole picture. One can mention sea ice movement but that doesn't explain it. The waters have warmed hence the melting of the sea ice but the evidence on tha continental glacier of Greenland is different and the continent of Greenland is cooling and still is [NASA recordings over past 20 years]. Also the temperature in the arctic is at the same level as 1938 but there is much less sea ice...ocean warming? I believe that we have recently (Feb 2005) undergone a long term synoptic switch in the northern Hemisphere which will see a difference start to kick in temps globally over the next few years. With solar minimums approaching it is anticipated in certain scientific circles that it will be obvious by 2015 and maybe as early as 2012 that we will be experiencing global cooling.

Time will tell and as I said elsewhere 20years of air temp measurements have shown ZERO increase globally and one area I will be watching closely

regards for now

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

Yet another situation where data can be 'doctored' to suit. Sea ice is undoubtedly far below average levels but it could be interpreted in two obvious ways. Firstly, it could be (and probably is) that global temperatures are increasing and this will obviously affect the sea ice concentration. Secondly, it could be considered that our methods of measuring sea ice levels have become more accurate and comprehensive and that had our modern techniques been available 100 years ago we might see that the current dire levels of ice is a cyclical occurrence.

Incidentally, I for one will be avoiding the BBC's latest scaremongering propaganda as I feel that anything the BBC churns out with a GW tag smacks of atrocious journalism. The only programme I can think of off the top of my head that even glanced at the other side of the story was the Horizon documentary 3 years back that focused on the GS shutting down, and even that held little credibility due to the method of delivery (it was more like a budget disaster movie). Although I should say that it's not just the BBC; I don't think I've ever seen a balanced view of GW in a journalistic sense.

I'll hop off me soapbox now :blush: !

[carinthian]

Hi West,

Caution here with these time comparison sea ice charts. During my time in the Met Office,it wasn,t until 1979 that Sun Synchronous Satellites (infra red Observations at the North Pole ) were received every 6 hours. Some of the data then produced some distorted pictures. Even in the early 80s as measurements became more precise, sea ice eddies producing slush around the edges of the ice caps were taken as measured sea ice area. Todays advanced technology makes the reading more accurate over a smaller time scale. However, as you point out there should be some concern, but dire is a bit of an exaggeration.

Cheers

Carinth.

hI all,

Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles.

C

[carinthian]

hI all,

Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles.

C

Morning,

Presently minius 26 C on the summit.. Latest reports from the Denmark Striat show very few sightings of ice bergs compared to this time last year. The concentration of the ice sheets which have reached the coastline in the the Greenland Sea remain firmly locked someway out into the deeper waters. The ice front should fracture and break away over the coming months. However, the cold remains firmly in control at the moment. ( see the above post ).

C

[John Cox]

Morning,

Presently minius 26 C on the summit.. Latest reports from the Denmark Striat show very few sightings of ice bergs compared to this time last year. The concentration of the ice sheets which have reached the coastline in the the Greenland Sea remain firmly locked someway out into the deeper waters. The ice front should fracture and break away over the coming months. However, the cold remains firmly in control at the moment. ( see the above post ).

C

Morning Carinth,

Once again your forecast of 16th proves accurate.

8C and raining heavy this morning here in Dublin with a forecast of ground frosts for the next couple of nights.

Winter has come early!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Carinth

It seems to be ongoing this overall coldness on Greenland. Climatically a very important area and as a betting man I would go for Greenland to remain below average overall over the approaching months [i read that NASA had reported that it has been gradually cooling over the last 20 years]. I see no reason for it to change.

BFTP

[carinthian]

Carinth

It seems to be ongoing this overall coldness on Greenland. Climatically a very important area and as a betting man I would go for Greenland to remain below average overall over the approaching months [i read that NASA had reported that it has been gradually cooling over the last 20 years]. I see no reason for it to change.

BFTP

Hi BFTP, as you point out this is a very important area because nearly 15% of the worlds permanent ice cover resides here. Last summers below average temps, followed by record breaking low temps in September and October certainly add fuel for thought , especially as you go for Greenland to remain below average again this coming few months. Weird how the present blocking patterns produce cold summers up there followed by a fairly mild winter.

Thanks

Carinth

[carinthian]

Morning Carinth,

Once again your forecast of 16th proves accurate.

8C and raining heavy this morning here in Dublin with a forecast of ground frosts for the next couple of nights.

Winter has come early!!!

Hi John,

Is that your weather site in Wicklow ? If so your temp has now reached the dizzy height of 10 C ! Wet Sunday also here. I suppose its still only Springtime yet. Plenty of cool, sorry "cold " air up wind from you.

Cheers

C

[carinthian]

hI all,

Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles.

C

Further to the above post from last week, the Greenland Summit is now recording -35C ! ( normal values for late May should be in the region of -20C ).

C