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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Damien, the winters that fir the bill for 1991 and 1996 downwards are winters with an average CET of 3C or less, the winters from 1975 which fit the bill are:

1979

1982

1985

1986

1991

1996

while still a limited range, i will accept this range. Two of the ten coldest winters in the past century occured after 1975, these are 1979 and 1982 and are included in the range.

As for the 1995 and 2005 examples, August 2005 was exactly average but drier than average, obviously there will be exeptions to the rule.

After looking at the preceeding months to the 6 years above, here is what i found:

January - no temperature link, majority above average in rainfall

February - majority below average in temperature, no rainfall link

March - no temperature link, majority below average in rainfall

April - majority below average in temperature and rainfall

May - no temperature link, majority below average in rainfall

June - majority below average in temperature and rainfall

July - majority above average in temperature, majority below average in rainfall

August - majority above average in temperature, majority below average in rainfall

September - majority above average in temperature, no rainfall link

October - no temperature link, no rainfall link

November - majority above average in temperature, majority below average in rainfall

December - majority below average in temperature, majority above average in rainfall (technically part of the winter)

Suprisingly, the prerequisites for a winter with a CET of 3C or below are a wet January, a cold February, a dry March, a cool and dry April, a dry May, a cool and dry June, a warm and dry July and August, a warm September, a mild and dry November and a cold and wet December, the only month not really mattering is October.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Am I mistaken or is this the 'summer discussion' thread? I'm sure the cold rampers would be rather annoyed if their 'winter discussion' thread in December was taken over by discussions about the summer. This isn't December, it's June, and summer is only just beginning! Why people would want to think about freezing air, numb hands, those horrendous dreary evenings when it's dark by 4pm and the stuffiness of central heating at the beginning of summer is completely beyond me! The cold bias on these forums bemuses me- just what advantages are there to cold weather? How can a 5C day feel better than a 20C day? Obviously everyone has their preferences, but it would be nice if the warm fans could express their opinions a bit more freely without being ridiculed. It would certainly be more representative of the British population as a whole, the vast majority of whom hope to see settled warm conditions in summer and mild dry weather in winter.

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Agreed we'll discuss Winter end of September. Time to clunk click this thread and start again.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
Am I mistaken or is this the 'summer discussion' thread? I'm sure the cold rampers would be rather annoyed if their 'winter discussion' thread in December was taken over by discussions about the summer. This isn't December, it's June, and summer is only just beginning! Why people would want to think about freezing air, numb hands, those horrendous dreary evenings when it's dark by 4pm and the stuffiness of central heating at the beginning of summer is completely beyond me! The cold bias on these forums bemuses me- just what advantages are there to cold weather? How can a 5C day feel better than a 20C day? Obviously everyone has their preferences, but it would be nice if the warm fans could express their opinions a bit more freely without being ridiculed. It would certainly be more representative of the British population as a whole, the vast majority of whom hope to see settled warm conditions in summer and mild dry weather in winter.

Here here! Every season has its nice bits but summer always wins hands down. I think most people like winter as there's this 1 in 100 chance it might snow heavily in there part of the world so love the 'drama' of the build up. But dark nights, uncomfortable living conditions, general winter 'misery' seems a very large price to pay for this 'rollercoaster'!

Summer is here - long live summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Am I mistaken or is this the 'summer discussion' thread? I'm sure the cold rampers would be rather annoyed if their 'winter discussion' thread in December was taken over by discussions about the summer. This isn't December, it's June, and summer is only just beginning! Why people would want to think about freezing air, numb hands, those horrendous dreary evenings when it's dark by 4pm and the stuffiness of central heating at the beginning of summer is completely beyond me! The cold bias on these forums bemuses me- just what advantages are there to cold weather? How can a 5C day feel better than a 20C day? Obviously everyone has their preferences, but it would be nice if the warm fans could express their opinions a bit more freely without being ridiculed. It would certainly be more representative of the British population as a whole, the vast majority of whom hope to see settled warm conditions in summer and mild dry weather in winter.

From my experiences, I disagree with the vast majority wanting mild dry conditions in winter; that's what the media tell us we should be wanting and make out as being true, but the proportion of the population who welcome a good dumping of the white stuff, or a bright frosty day, is probably around 30% at lowest, and maybe around or in excess of 50%.

I don't think there is a cold bias on this forum at this time of year; I think what we're seeing is a winter bias (many members being only interested in winter weather). If anything, in spring and summer there is a pronounced warm bias, with anyone who welcomes a spring snowfall being ridiculed for "clinging onto winter" instead of "moving onto wanting settled warm weather".

That said, I agree with the rest of the post- this is the beginning of summer, plus it is a summer forecast thread. Winter discussions should, if they are to take place at all, take place in winter discussion threads, plus there's not a great deal to reasonably discuss as summer patterns do not generally have much of an effect on winter patterns. It's summer, and most places are sunny- let's make the most of our summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Am I mistaken or is this the 'summer discussion' thread? I'm sure the cold rampers would be rather annoyed if their 'winter discussion' thread in December was taken over by discussions about the summer. This isn't December, it's June, and summer is only just beginning! Why people would want to think about freezing air, numb hands, those horrendous dreary evenings when it's dark by 4pm and the stuffiness of central heating at the beginning of summer is completely beyond me! The cold bias on these forums bemuses me- just what advantages are there to cold weather? How can a 5C day feel better than a 20C day? Obviously everyone has their preferences, but it would be nice if the warm fans could express their opinions a bit more freely without being ridiculed. It would certainly be more representative of the British population as a whole, the vast majority of whom hope to see settled warm conditions in summer and mild dry weather in winter.

Just picking up on a word in your post, scorcher, not for a minute thinking that your post was doing this, because it wasn't (!) *>)) ......

.......How can anyone ramp cold weather, or any other type of weather? Weather is weather. It don't change for us. It's not like the stock exchange, where the term "ramping" is most often used these days. Powerful people can ramp shares and influence others to buy, or sell, thus influencing the price, but there ain't many that can buy and sell the weather. OK, OK, I believe there is a market in weather futures, but what I mean is that no-one can actually influence future weather by talking up a certain type!

As for me, I don't believe pattern matching gives the slightest clue to what the weather will be in 6 months time, or whenever time, for that matter. Neither do I believe we should give the Met Office forecast, based on Arctic SSTs predicting the NAO, a great deal of credence, yet, when the outcomes are only 67% accurate on a short, 30-odd year, statistically non-relevant, data set - though the forecast is becoming more interesting, as the size of the data set increases.

I think that long-range forecasting is still in its infancy and talk of what will happen this winter makes me smile, whichever thread it is on. Ramping makes me think the person doing it is an idiot with no understanding of how the weather machine actually works!

Me. I'm with scorcher. I like long, sunny, warm days and I think we may well have a June with many of them this year, but my opinion is just that; whatever I say, or do will not increase the number of those kind of days!

Finally; returning to the thread theme and not ramping in the slightest, but, instead, forecasting, based on a continuation of Global warming; this summer has: a 70% chance of being warmer than average; a 20% chance of being colder than average; a 10% chance of being close to average, but my musings, or anyone else's, won't change the actual outcome!

Regards, Paul

Edited by Dawlish
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Just picking up on a word in your post, scorcher, not for a minute thinking that your post was doing this, because it wasn't (!) *>)) ......

.......How can anyone ramp cold weather, or any other type of weather? Weather is weather. It don't change for us. It's not like the stock exchange, where the term "ramping" is most often used these days. Powerful people can ramp shares and influence others to buy, or sell, thus influencing the price, but there ain't many that can buy and sell the weather. OK, OK, I believe there is a market in weather futures, but what I mean is that no-one can actually influence future weather by talking up a certain type!

As for me, I don't believe pattern matching gives the slightest clue to what the weather will be in 6 months time, or whenever time, for that matter. Neither do I believe we should give the Met Office forecast, based on Arctic SSTs predicting the NAO, a great deal of credence, yet, when the outcomes are only 67% accurate on a short, 30-odd year, statistically non-relevant, data set - though the forecast is becoming more interesting, as the size of the data set increases.

I think that long-range forecasting is still in its infancy and talk of what will happen this winter makes me smile, whichever thread it is on. Ramping makes me think the person doing it is an idiot with no understanding of how the weather machine actually works!

Me. I'm with scorcher. I like long, sunny, warm days and I think we may well have a June with many of them this year, but my opinion is just that; whatever I say, or do will not increase the number of those kind of days!

Finally; returning to the thread theme and not ramping in the slightest, but, instead, forecasting, based on a continuation of Global warming; this summer has: a 70% chance of being warmer than average; a 20% chance of being colder than average; a 10% chance of being close to average, but my musings, or anyone else's, won't change the actual outcome!

Regards, Paul

Hi Paul-

Some interesting thoughts there-

I agree with LRF's being in there infancy- Anyone who tries to pinpoint a specific event 6/12 weeks of so in the future is foolish-

The only way forward and something thats been mentioned by Myself & GP/SP a few times is to use the statistical global data from the teleconnections-

These are indicators of how the upper Atmosphere & Ocean temps are influencing circulation patterns- Then try to correlate these back to some form of broad forecast for a season-

Its hazardous to say the least- especially as the dataset for teleconnections only goes back 50 years or so-

Im sticking with the Summer forecast presented, The slow start in terms of temps & above average rainfall has actually been & gone throughout the end of May with the significant rains-

I was expecting this period to be 2/3 weeks later into June- Never the less its gone, and now the pattern has broke and AS expected the dry conditions are set to prevail, with that first continental high lined up for the weekend-

Hot, Sunny, Dry will be the watch words of this Summer with the torrential downpours distorting the overall rainfall patterns- lots of window watching to be had this year.....

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Hi Paul-

Some interesting thoughts there-

I agree with LRF's being in there infancy- Anyone who tries to pinpoint a specific event 6/12 weeks of so in the future is foolish-

The only way forward and something thats been mentioned by Myself & GP/SP a few times is to use the statistical global data from the teleconnections-

These are indicators of how the upper Atmosphere & Ocean temps are influencing circulation patterns- Then try to correlate these back to some form of broad forecast for a season-

Its hazardous to say the least- especially as the dataset for teleconnections only goes back 50 years or so-

Im sticking with the Summer forecast presented, The slow start in terms of temps & above average rainfall has actually been & gone throughout the end of May with the significant rains-

I was expecting this period to be 2/3 weeks later into June- Never the less its gone, and now the pattern has broke and AS expected the dry conditions are set to prevail, with that first continental high lined up for the weekend-

Hot, Sunny, Dry will be the watch words of this Summer with the torrential downpours distorting the overall rainfall patterns- lots of window watching to be had this year.....

S

Hi Steve,

I'm sure you've seen my percentage forecasts on the other threads! Good luck with the teleconnections forecasting. I believe metcheck use teleconnections in their seasonal forecasting (I may be wrong) and they are forcasting a cool July, with a CET 1C below average. Like you say, the science is in it's infancy!

Didn't the MetO winter forecast last year derive from the previous May's SSTs? Their forecast for the winter, if I recall, although bland was pretty good.

Chaos theory, by the way, does not preclude making observations/predictions about some future system state. Consider turbulence, for instance. If you watch a stream it is extremely difficult to analyze what small areas of the stream are likely to do; now watch it again - you'll see patterns. If you've got the time, you'll notice that if this eddy appears upstream, then certain characteristic behaviour will occur downstream. The atmosphere is, of course, a thermodynamic fluid.

What you can't do is stick the model (the abstraction) in a computer and hope for the best; non-linear systems are extremely difficult to model mathematically, and a computer, of course relies heavily on binary mathematics (actually not quite strictly true as the vast majority of computing instructions issued in working software are MOV ax,bx)

It is, in my humble opinion, then, highly probable that the human mind - the world's most powerful parallel computing device, could spot patterns well in advance of any other form of technology.

Those of you who have made neural networks, bayesian decision trees, and evolved artificial intelligence using GA will easily understand that our understanding not of the syntax of the mind, but the semantics is the equivalent of a Mr Bump book compared to Tolstoy's War and Peace.

Our best efforts remain those which are produced directly from the human mind.

Hi Mark,

Yes, the Met Office use May Arctic SSTs to predict the NAO. Other agencies try to forecast the NAO. Here's an analysis of one NAO forecast, using 3 measures. One very good. Two pretty good. It was a good year. Longer term (30+ years, the accuracy stands at 67%, 2 correct out of 3. not terribly high and the corellation, long term, is not statistically strong.

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/NAO_20...erification.pdf

Very true about the chaos producing outcomes which could be useable. The analogy to streamflow is a good one. Effectively, that is what I am trying to do by looking for reapeatable patterns in the long-range gfs. It may be tosh, but it's worked for the last 2 events I've tried it on! (I know, not statistically valid! Tiny data set!! No control runs!!! Fun though!)

Regards, Paul

Edited by Dawlish
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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines

It's a shame that these forecasts are totally unreliable - look at December (or rather the November-December-Janury period) and January (the D-J-F period) now!:

glbT2mSeaNorm.gif

That's a classic negative NAO winter in North-Western Europe. Watch the folks on TWO go crazy when they see this. I was reading the comments on TWO from their senior members about the *possibility* of 2006/07 finally delivering the goods - and the word "severe" was even mentioned for a third pre-winter build up.

It will be interesting to see what the ECPC have to say when they update on Friday, not to mention the MetO NAO forecast. If all 3 back this up that would be one serious agreement even at this early stage.

In any case these charts should make interesting viewing in the next few days just to see whether mild or cold wins. :D

Edit: Yes I forgot to mention that Ian Currie is also *provisionally* backing this scenario or a scenario like this.

Edited by Damien
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Damien, when is the next update from Wolfgang Rodear?

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Here here! Every season has its nice bits but summer always wins hands down. I think most people like winter as there's this 1 in 100 chance it might snow heavily in there part of the world so love the 'drama' of the build up. But dark nights, uncomfortable living conditions, general winter 'misery' seems a very large price to pay for this 'rollercoaster'!

Summer is here - long live summer!

I like Winter because there is no oppressive, draining, unbearable heat, not just the fact that there is a little snow. The sooner summer is over, the better IMO. Roll on October!

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines

***ECPC HAS JUST ARRIVED***

TMP2.latest.ano_global.gif

thumbs_up_smiley.gif

Damien, when is the next update from Wolfgang Roeder?

This week I believe - Friday may be the day. :D

Edited by Damien
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Thanks, as far as i know, the Met Office are also releasing their updated summer forecast this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
I like Winter because there is no oppressive, draining, unbearable heat, not just the fact that there is a little snow. The sooner summer is over, the better IMO. Roll on October!

Opressive, draining, unbearable heat??? In the UK??? Just how often does this happen? Temperatures average between 20-23C over the summer months, so how can this be unbearable? It's much easier to be comfortable in 20C than it is in 5C- at least you don't have to wear a coat.

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Opressive, draining, unbearable heat??? In the UK??? Just how often does this happen? Temperatures average between 20-23C over the summer months, so how can this be unbearable? It's much easier to be comfortable in 20C than it is in 5C- at least you don't have to wear a coat.

3.15am!!......couldn't you sleep because of the heat, schorcher?

*>))

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Opressive, draining, unbearable heat??? In the UK??? Just how often does this happen? Temperatures average between 20-23C over the summer months, so how can this be unbearable? It's much easier to be comfortable in 20C than it is in 5C- at least you don't have to wear a coat.

But that doesn't mean the temperatures never get above 23C does it. They frequently do during the summer. It would be alright if it was dry heat, but in Britain this is often not the case. It's the humidity that makes it unbearable imo.

You may think I'm odd, but I feel a lot more comfortable in 5C than, for example, 20C with high humidity. But everyone has their different views on what temp/humidity boundries make being outside uncomfortable, and these are mine.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3.15am!!......couldn't you sleep because of the heat, schorcher?

*>))

Paul

Not exactly- being a student, 3.15am is like midday for me! Saying that, it may well be the heat keeping me up this weekend and early next week looking at the forecast!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Opressive, draining, unbearable heat??? In the UK??? Just how often does this happen? Temperatures average between 20-23C over the summer months, so how can this be unbearable? It's much easier to be comfortable in 20C than it is in 5C- at least you don't have to wear a coat.

Happens quite a few years and is getting worse as more buildings go up.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I got horrible feeling that we could end up with a very good June and it go belly-up afterwards. It has happened quite a few times including June 1992 and even June 1993. Other examples include the Junes of 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Just a gut feeling rather anything else.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
I got horrible feeling that we could end up with a very good June and it go belly-up afterwards. It has happened quite a few times including June 1992 and even June 1993. Other examples include the Junes of 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Just a gut feeling rather anything else.

Maybe but then many of us had a gut feeling that we'd get a slow start to summer with a cool, showery June... It could be blazing till September- unlikely of course...

My gut feeling is a period of cooler, unsettled weather late June/early July before heat comes our way again. But again - only a gut feeling!

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Posted
  • Location: Warrington, Cheshire
  • Location: Warrington, Cheshire
Maybe but then many of us had a gut feeling that we'd get a slow start to summer with a cool, showery June... It could be blazing till September- unlikely of course...

My gut feeling is a period of cooler, unsettled weather late June/early July before heat comes our way again. But again - only a gut feeling!

Very true, it could go either way this summer. The seasonal forecasts from the Met Office do suggest a warmer than average summer. A blazing summer, even though unlikely, would be lovely but would cause havoc for the drought situation in the southeast. I dread to think what would happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines

Decembrrrrr...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

;)

Ian Currie is going to be right. This is the coldest air NOAA has ever generated over the waters of the United Kingdom in 5 years in the wintertime, very far away as the November-December-January period is.

Just for the record this is -0.75°C--0.5°C air, so this is no joke, and a much smaller segment also shows up for this area in the December-January-February period as well. However, a more important point to remember is that this over half a year away, so it is foolish to get excited at this stage, in spite of what the Met Office NAO forecast may say in the next fortnight. I should also point out that the NOAA is one of the models Metcheck use... I think (Andy?).

NOAA's CFS model is currently forecasting a cold winter in the United Kingdom in 2006/07, based on pre-May 30 SST findings. Does anyone know what the clients for this CFS model are?

Edited by Damien
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I haven't seen many predictions for a warm summer, to be fair. The MetO's preliminary seasonal forecast suggested a rather vague outlook (i.e. a lot of uncertainty) but with probabilities favouring near-average temperatures and above average rainfall. This would be consistent with a hot June with near or rather below average rainfall, and then a rather cool and wet July and August.

I don't think Kevin's suggestion above should be discounted although it's not what many of us want to hear; a warm and sunny spell in early June, or indeed a warm sunny June as a whole, is often followed by cool cloudy weather in July and August. The 1960s were a particularly stark example; there was quite a run of warm sunny Junes during that decade, but July and August tended to be very cool and cloudy. Conversely, the 1990s were the reverse, with many cold cloudy Junes, and warm sunny months in July and August.

However, it doesn't always work that way; the Junes of 1933, 1949, 1959, 1975, 1976 and 1989 being good examples of Junes that were sunny and warm, and the rest of the summers were likewise.

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