Summer Forecast.....

[Damien]

These NCEP charts sure make for cool viewing on these hot summer nights.

Okay so the -0.75°C--0.5°C air is gone, as expected and as we all knew it will, but the UK is still under a nice of near blanket of that -0.5°C--0.25°C air, which could yet cool further and will give the Atlantic some job to shift. This is a very negative NAO winter that the NOAA is forecasting even if the Met Office go positive. (Look at Greece and the Balkans for example in contrast with North-Western Europe on the last 3 "SeaNorm" charts.)

Summer is also worth taking into consideration at this stage, with the picture looking increasingly like and in line with the thoughts/warnings of Kevin Bradshaw; early-mid autumn now looking very mild after that, more so in October than with a still slightly cooler September.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

Taking into account all these early long-range forecasts, an Indian summer looks a dead cert, maybe an October 1995-style one.

Edited June 8, 2006 by Damien

[Dawlish]

These NCEP charts sure make for cool viewing on these hot summer nights.

Okay so the -0.75°C--0.5°C air is gone, as expected and as we all knew it will, but the UK is still under a nice of near blanket of that -0.5°C--0.25°C air, which could yet cool further and will give the Atlantic some job to shift. This is a very negative NAO winter that the NOAA is forecasting even if the Met Office go positive. (Look at Greece and the Balkans for example in contrast with North-Western Europe on the last 3 "SeaNorm" charts.)

Summer is also worth taking into consideration at this stage, with the picture looking increasingly like and in line with the thoughts/warnings of Kevin Bradshaw; early-mid autumn now looking very mild after that, more so in October than with a still slightly cooler September.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

Taking into account all these early long-range forecasts, an Indian summer looks a dead cert, maybe an October 1995-style one.

Taking into account all these long-range forecasts an Indian summer looks as likely as it did before they were made.

Sorry Damien, I don't believe that longer range forecasting is anything like as accurate as you'd like it to be. "Dead certs" at 4 months ahead don't exist, with long-range forecasting in its current, very young, state.

Paul

[Weather-history]

I got horrible feeling that we could end up with a very good June and it go belly-up afterwards. It has happened quite a few times including June 1992 and even June 1993. Other examples include the Junes of 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Just a gut feeling rather anything else.

Another example is June 1986, incidentally the World Cup was during that month. The second half of June 1986 was the warmest second half of June since 1976. It was pretty reasonable month, the best summer month of the summers from 1985-88, maxima got into the 30s but that went belly-up big time during August. Exeter recorded a higher minimum in June than many stations recorded as their highest maximum for August 1986.

This current June has a "June 1970" about it.

Edited June 9, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Damien]

Taking into account all these long-range forecasts an Indian summer looks as likely as it did before they were made.

Sorry Damien, I don't believe that longer range forecasting is anything like as accurate as you'd like it to be. "Dead certs" at 4 months ahead don't exist, with long-range forecasting in its current, very young, state.

Paul

I've gotta say you make a good point, especially on the ongoing infancy of long-range weather forecasting.

Nonetheless, back to the NOAA, and today's CFS run shows the cold *slightly* intensifying over us in December, but no cooler; meanwhile milder weather is slightly edging closer in January once again, claiming Ireland.

Luckily this thing is too far away to be taken seriously. In the slightly more *reliable* time range, however, early autumn is now looking warmer, summer still stable and unpromising.

Edited June 9, 2006 by Damien

[Dawlish]

In the slightly more *reliable* time range, however, early autumn is now looking warmer, summer stable.

No it isn't. That is just an opinion based on someone else's forecast. "Early Autumn" is beyond any forecastable limit, in my view. Anything above 10 days is hard enough and takes one awful lot of keeping up with, for most. The 4 month+ forecasts are experimental, at best.

Paul

Edited June 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[Damien]

No it isn't. That is just an opinion!

Paul

Well it's a common one, and by far from a wrong one.

Basically what we can use these forecasts for is to look for is trends in our coming months' weather based on the outgoing monthly/21-days SSTs. Metcheck(?) and other clients may however disagree with this assessment.

I also believe that the El Niño forecast is quite valid.

Edited June 9, 2006 by Damien

[Dawlish]

I haven't seen many predictions for a warm summer, to be fair. The MetO's preliminary seasonal forecast suggested a rather vague outlook (i.e. a lot of uncertainty) but with probabilities favouring near-average temperatures and above average rainfall. This would be consistent with a hot June with near or rather below average rainfall, and then a rather cool and wet July and August.

I don't think Kevin's suggestion above should be discounted although it's not what many of us want to hear; a warm and sunny spell in early June, or indeed a warm sunny June as a whole, is often followed by cool cloudy weather in July and August. The 1960s were a particularly stark example; there was quite a run of warm sunny Junes during that decade, but July and August tended to be very cool and cloudy. Conversely, the 1990s were the reverse, with many cold cloudy Junes, and warm sunny months in July and August.

However, it doesn't always work that way; the Junes of 1933, 1949, 1959, 1975, 1976 and 1989 being good examples of Junes that were sunny and warm, and the rest of the summers were likewise.

Before the summer started and based on a warming trend, my own forecast would be a 70% chance of a warmer than average summer, a 20% chance of a cooler than average summer and a 10% chance of the summer being close to average. However, with the warm start to June, I must change that to an 80% chance of this summer being warmer than average; 10% below; 10% close to average (within 0.25C).

I'd therefore offer odds of 7/2 this summer being cooler than average. Mind you, at this time of night I am not sober, so If I've offered better odds on another thread, I'd take them! On the other hand, I'd offer odds of only 2/9 that this summer will be warmer than average, as. obviously, from those short odds, I think it will be.

Paul

Well it's a common one, and by far from a wrong one.

Basically what we can use these forecasts for is to look for is trends in our coming months' weather based on the outgoing monthly/21-days SSTs. Metcheck(?) and other clients may however disagree with this assessment.

I also believe that the El Niño forecast is quite valid.

I actually said that that was an opinion, based on someone else's forecast! What, exactly, do you base that opinion on, Damien? Lead us to some evidence.

Paul

Edited June 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[Sunshine]

However, it doesn't always work that way; the Junes of 1933, 1949, 1959, 1975, 1976 and 1989 being good examples of Junes that were sunny and warm, and the rest of the summers were likewise.

You could also count June 2003 as well

[Damien]

I actually said that that was an opinion, based on someone else's forecast! What, exactly, do you base that opinion on, Damien? Lead us to some evidence.

Historical success (which is mixed, but, as with all long-range science, always improving); the fact that the CFS-GFS model is one of the most climatological models in the world today; separately in my analysis frequent and common post-1985 trends such as cooler Septembers and warmer Octobers being among two major ingredients for a desired colder winter season thereafter; and smaller factors such as SST records. The last factor is kind of like the MetO system for deciphering the NAO forecast, which appears to be coming out later again this year....

Edited June 10, 2006 by Damien

[Methuselah]

No it isn't. That is just an opinion based on someone else's forecast. "Early Autumn" is beyond any forecastable limit, in my view. Anything above 10 days is hard enough and takes one awful lot of keeping up with, for most. The 4 month+ forecasts are experimental, at best.

Paul

I have to agree with that, Paul...IMO, all we can do at this juncture is to GUESS!

If our guesses fail to happen then everyone will foreget them, anyway...Should chance be on our side, we can use hindsight bias to make it look like a successful 'forecast'???

[Damien]

The NAO now looks to be turning increasingly positive from November to January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

But on the plus side Northern Eurasia, Siberia and the Baltic look very cold in January, as does the South of England. A 2005/06-like winter, perhaps?

[Damien]

Some significant NOAA updates today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

June and July now look much warmer, but August still looks quite cool in spite of a clear positive NAO based on that chart. September and October continue to look mild or very mild to take us into autumn with November remaining encouragingly cold and "dark blue" over even Southern UK, possibly to take us into a third negative NAO winter with those maps not all too reminiscent of the Met Office monthly prediction charts for last winter, and those of the French model.

The longer range model now paints a picture of a massively cool November, with deep cold over much of North-Western Europe coming to -0.75--0.5°C on those charts in December, almost touching South-Eastern UK if not just that:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

January now also looks slightly "less warm" for us, with the cold anomaly also now clearly disappearing over Greece and the Balkans as well for all three early winter months. Classic negative NAO conditions.

A very mid-1980s look to those charts overall.

Edited June 17, 2006 by Damien

[Scorcher]

The NAO now looks to be turning increasingly positive from November to January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

But on the plus side Northern Eurasia, Siberia and the Baltic look very cold in January, as does the South of England. A 2005/06-like winter, perhaps?

Summer forecast?

[karyo]

Summer forecast?

It may be the summer forecast, but it is always nice to see some encouraging signs for the winter. Always my number one!

Karyo

[Scorcher]

It may be the summer forecast, but it is always nice to see some encouraging signs for the winter. Always my number one!

Karyo

Let's just enjoy the summer first. It's far too early to tell what the winter will hold anyway.

[Thundersquall]

Remember that film from 1939 with Technicolour?

Well, summer's going the same way it seems!

[Dawlish]

Some significant NOAA updates today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

June and July now look much warmer, but August still looks quite cool in spite of a clear positive NAO based on that chart. September and October continue to look mild or very mild to take us into autumn with November remaining encouragingly cold and "dark blue" over even Southern UK, possibly to take us into a third negative NAO winter with those maps not all too reminiscent of the Met Office monthly prediction charts for last winter, and those of the French model.

The longer range model now paints a picture of a massively cool November, with deep cold over much of North-Western Europe coming to -0.75--0.5°C on those charts in December, almost touching South-Eastern UK if not just that:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

January now also looks slightly "less warm" for us, with the cold anomaly also now clearly disappearing over Greece and the Balkans as well for all three early winter months. Classic negative NAO conditions.

A very mid-1980s look to those charts overall.

Damien,

How much have you questioned the validity of these charts and these predictions? I know it is the NOAA, whose work I respect, but do you know:

1. What measure (s) they use to predict the NAO?

2. What is their retrospective success rate for prediction?

3. How long is their dataset?

At the moment, you are reading their site and quoting their mapped predictions as if they are actually going to happen.

The NAO measurement that the UKMO use is running at a 67% success rate after last winter and is operating on a 35 year (ish) dataset, which has, as yet, a low statistical significance. I doubt the NOAA is any better, though I would like someone to show me that I am wrong on this; it would be really interesting to find a relaible predictor of the next winter's climate, in sunny June!

I am hugely skeptical of the potential accuracy of such long-range predictions and when it comes down to January, in the Balkans, well frankly, I don't believe that there is an agency in the world that has the capability to predict, in that much detail, 7 months ahead.

Thanks for bringing the source of the forecasts to the boards, but I would counsel a graet deal of caution in saying that these things are actually going to happen.

Paul

Edited June 17, 2006 by Dawlish

[Damien]

Let's just enjoy the summer first. It's far too early to tell what the winter will hold anyway.

Good point, although I disagree that it's far too early to start thinking about winter, as we can start looking for trends in our weather now based on SST charts, which, incidentally, I will talk to Dawlish about at a later date if I can. (Besides, the Met Office will be issuing their NAO forecast for the winter ahead soon anyway, so it's never too early! )

LOL @ Thundersquall w./"Technicolour".

Anyhow, today's NOAA shows a warmer yet June and July, September and October, though with a slightly cooler August yet as well. In the longer range the NDJ (November-December-January) period is slightly milder with exceptionally worrying developments in the South Mediterranean, i.e.: -0.75--0.5°C air, which hints at one at of many worst case scenarios for the Northern/Western European winter - a sudden strong positive NAO weather pattern. December still looks cold and maintains the -0.75--0.5°C air over North-Western Europe though , but I suspect/expect that one of these will disappear tomorrow: 60% it's our "colder" patch, 40% it's theirs (Spain, the Med., and the Adriatic's).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

Edited June 18, 2006 by Damien

[Scorcher]

Good point, although I disagree that it's far too early to start thinking about winter, as we can start looking for trends in our weather now based on SST charts, which, incidentally, I will talk to Dawlish about at a later date if I can. (Besides, the Met Office will be issuing their NAO forecast for the winter ahead soon anyway, so it's never too early! )

LOL @ Thundersquall w./"Technicolour".

Anyhow, today's NOAA shows a warmer yet June and July, September and October, though with a slightly cooler August yet as well. In the longer range the NDJ (November-December-January) period is slightly milder with exceptionally worrying developments in the South Mediterranean, i.e.: -0.75--0.5°C air, which hints at one at of many worst case scenarios for the Northern/Western European winter - a sudden strong positive NAO weather pattern. December still looks cold and maintains the -0.75--0.5°C air over North-Western Europe though , but I suspect/expect that one of these will disappear tomorrow: 60% it's our "colder" patch, 40% it's theirs (Spain, the Med., and the Adriatic's).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

That's fair enough, I need to be educated by experts like yourself! I find your posts very interesting, it's just personally the thought of winter depresses me a bit at this early stage in the summer! I know last year people started looking at trends for winter at the end of August/early September so I think it must become easier in late summer to gain an indication. For the cold fans I really hope the coming winter turns out to be a memorable one- particularly as I won't have to worry about the cold as I'll be studying in Florida! Does a strong positive NAO weather pattern mean mild conditions?

[Damien]

December still looks cold and maintains the -0.75--0.5°C air over North-Western Europe though , but I suspect/expect that one of these will disappear tomorrow: 60% it's our "colder" patch, 40% it's theirs (Spain, the Med., and the Adriatic's).

Hi Damien ,

Looks like you're gonna be wrong. June now looks hotter yet on the shorter-range "Monthly Norm" chart with reds over the UK. No we have not been invaded by Communists that's the actual equinox weather. Furthermore, November now shows a direct extension of the dark blue (i.e.: -0.75--0.5°C) air from December now over us in the shorter-range chart. (You need to look very carefully to see it - it's on the North Sea just above the Netherlands.) No it does not get any better than this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

The longer-range chart however shows a less attractive summer - summer by the way something I have been asked to talk about by popular demand B) - and also now a slightly less attractive winter as those blues slowly recede over the UK, moving slowly down into Southern Europe for a sadly classic positive NAO winter pattern. There's still time yet, but I think the Atlantic will win this battle. Likewise it's equally probable that the "dark blues" will move over North-Western Europe again for tomorrow's update, but we will need to see what the SSTs have been up to in the past week to determine that as we all await for the MetO NAO forecast to be released based on the May SSTs.

The NCEP updates are becoming great evening viewing for me post-World Cup matches. B) Anyone else have this?

Edited June 19, 2006 by Damien

[Dawlish]

Hi Damien B) ,

but we will need to see what the SSTs have been up to in the past week to determine that as we all await for the MetO NAO forecast to be released based on the May SSTs.

Damien, are you quoting yourself and then crticising what you said??

*>))

Remember the Met Office describe their NAO forecast as "experimental" It has with an outcome of 67% accuracy, a rank coefficient of only 0.45 and a dataset of only about 35. Please don't believe it is predictive reality by a long way. These methods of long-range forecasting have a long, long, way to go before they can be accepted. the NAO forecast for 2004, the last one for which data exists on the site was outside the 95% "box and whisker", which means it was inaccurate. last year's may have been statistically valid, but it isn't on the site yet.

Paul

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My june forecast is going a bit mish mash this month. It is all in the wrong order

example:

"09.06.2006-18.06.2006:

Low pressure slowly migrates Westwards from Scandinavia allowing a series of fronts to cross the UK and with strong winds making the weather feel like late autumn.

19.06.2006-25.06.2006:

High pressure builds once again to allow southerly winds to blow across the UK. Some thunderstorms here though with strong UV rays as we approach the longest day"

They should eb the opposite way around as last week was hot and this week will feel like autumn.

Awell mabey next month i will get it right after 5 months of good forecasts B)

So as a correction the rest of the month will be alot cooler with bands of rain crossing the coutnry from time to time and feeling alot more comfortable.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Damien]

Damien, are you quoting yourself and then crticising what you said??

I am highlighting what I said then-yesterday (two days ago now!) to prove I was wrong... and that we benefit from it.

By the way congrats. to all those who said June would be a warm month!

Minimal changes today, if anything still slightly better for us overall. June just slightly cooler ; July even less slightly cooler (I hate hot nights; but this is bad for winter, as we ideally want a hot and sunny June); August much cooler (negative NAO-type pattern in fact); September warmer (very bad) ; October cooler (very bad) , November much colder. So a mixed bag all in all.

But colder winning again on the long-range NCEP! A massive Arctic plunge in October (even though this is bad for winter synoptically) followed by an easterly-looking November; new a ice age for Kent in December; and the continent winning in January too!

But the best is yet to come...

MILDER BALKANS and NEGATIVE NAO!!!!

Read the charts and weep mild-lovers.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

Edited June 20, 2006 by Damien

[summer blizzard]

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=30739

Damien, could you begin posting your analysis of the longer range charts into the winter thread, and Snow-Man, could you post your long range thoughts into the winter thread.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

sorry SB

SNOW-MAN2006