Summer Forecast.....

[johnholmes]

I am highlighting what I said then-yesterday (two days ago now!) to prove I was wrong... and that we benefit from it.

By the way congrats. to all those who said June would be a warm month!

Minimal changes today, if anything still slightly better for us overall. June just slightly cooler ; July even less slightly cooler (I hate hot nights; but this is bad for winter, as we ideally want a hot and sunny June); August much cooler (negative NAO-type pattern in fact); September warmer (very bad) ; October cooler (very bad) , November much colder. So a mixed bag all in all.

But colder winning again on the long-range NCEP! A massive Arctic plunge in October (even though this is bad for winter synoptically) followed by an easterly-looking November; new a ice age for Kent in December; and the continent winning in January too!

But the best is yet to come...

MILDER BALKANS and NEGATIVE NAO!!!!

Read the charts and weep mild-lovers.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

expect I'm whistling in the wind Damien but could you PLEASE stop using bold, even double bold and double size. We can read and infer our own thoughts when reading your posts.

It really is tiresome all this bold, capitals and double sizing.

In hope

John

Edited June 22, 2006 by johnholmes

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

This is the second Seasonal forecast,.........................

......................

The problem I have the azores high this year is that the flow patterns, AO behaviour & Sunspot activity are not at all condusive to that type of set up-

Also with the azores high often comes tropical air which is more often than not suturated ( VERY high humidity levels) which means we all feel uncomfortable....

The AZORES high on its own is NOT a prerequisite for a Good summer....

Finally The Scandi/ European High-

In my opinion the best Summer the UK has had is the much vounted 1976, I 'Think' It was the last offical drought & it gave us brits a taste of what continental air/weather was all about-

The best type of high is the one that drags ANY heat of a DRY origin, this can come via spain or indeed the heart of europe-

1976 was punctuated by this type of flow- August more Particularly...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119760702.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119760810.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119760814.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119760821.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119760825.gif

The Final SUMMER 76 E&W CET was 16.86 thats 2.14C above normal- ( beating 1995)....

So we now in place an idea of the 3 Key players for the Summer-

Here would be my forecast & headlines on the 3 months June through August-

The headline I suppose of the bat would be that record 'BREAKING' heat this year may be a little out of reach- the early indicators of substantial early heat building from a deep & stable Azores high are not in evidence so my first headline would be-

No 100F recorded this Summer in the UK-

With the recent patterns I have seen in the global atmospheric patterns the jet stream is Anything but strong so....-

Flow Patterns are set to be MERIDIONAL throughout the Summer NOT ZONAL ( this is after a transitory phase at the start of Summer)

The correlation I make with Meridional flows is that Frontal rainfall events become fewer & further between so-

Reduced frequency of frontal rainfall across the UK ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH & NORTH WEST

The Jet stream activity looks to be awfully slow so we are in for lots of Split jets which will be good for us especially in the second portion of Summer-

Split jet running ABOVE 60N & south of 45N Should allow for the UK to sit in the dry slot-

In terms of MSLP Anomalies the headlines are-

Greenland Higher than ususal-

Azores Lower than usual

Central & Northern Europe Substantually greater than Normal especially for the second half-

To put a comment & some figures on The 2 base parameters which I mentioned at the start are as follows-

Temperature

This Summer will be punctuated by a Slow first third in terms of building Warmth & by a polar front that is making its migratory journey later than ususal-

However the remaining thirds should see this late start overturned by a VERY settled Period with consistent warmth/heat rather than Stiffling Heat-

The estimated E&W CET is 15.9C which is 1.2C ABOVE the E&W seasonal average-

comparison year- 1997 ( SUMMER ONLY)

Rainfall

This Summer im afraid looks like being another dry affair- The word arid does spring to Mind- but not quite....

The domination especialy in the second portion of the European high will see perpetual splitting of the jet & minimal frontal incursions-

The Estimated E&W rainfall is 60% of the season average

( A word on rainfall - Whilst the OVERALL pattern looks dry from a frontal point of view I am expecting increased incidence of Convective type rainfall to occur which could disproportionate local accumulations-)

Anyway I think that just about covers things...

Best regards

Steve B)

Evening All-

As June draws to a close I though I would add a post into my Summer outlook Thread-

I think the summary for June is that the month has been Very close to the forecast & has actually exceeded expectations in terms of Temperature Anomaly & Lack of Rainfall-

With the transitory Polar front phase arriving at the end of May rather than the start of June we saw summer kick in with a high pressure cell that Covered the whole of Central & Northern Europe-

The best representation of this is the fax chart for the 8th of June-

Now refer to the Summer forecast Headlines-

Central & Northern Europe MSLP anomalies Substantually greater than Normal especially for the second half

Reduced frequency of frontal rainfall across the UK ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH & NORTH WEST

Flow Patterns are set to be MERIDIONAL throughout the Summer NOT ZONAL ( this is after a transitory phase at the start of Summer)

I cant wait for the Climatology to arrive from Philip Eden-

Anyway Im not claiming Success yet- however I have kept 'touting' the big Continental high this year at the expense & Preference of the azores high- & as we welcome July look whats sat slap bang on our doorstep-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

A perfect continentla flow pushing temps towards 90F- with LOWISH RH levels a Perfect Summer-

Hopefully this Summer reflects my thoughts throughout & I can move onto a more successful Winter forecast-

Best regards

Steve

Edited June 28, 2006 by Steve Murr

[summer blizzard]

So, all the same in July then...

Would you be willing to put a figure on the CET and rainfall during July???

[SMU]

So, all the same in July then...

Would you be willing to put a figure on the CET and rainfall during July???

No-

My E&W Summer CET was estimated at 15.9C -

However because of the migration of the polar front a little earlier than expected that may have to amended to 16.3C.....

& Seasonal rainfall average maybe to 40%

S

[summer blizzard]

It looks like the warm spell from the Scandinavian High has been extended to at least next thursday.

Also, i believe an England and Wales series value of 16.3C would translate to a CET of 17.2C, that would make summer 2006 the fourth hottest on record.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My July forecast is now avaliable on th eJuly thoughts topic :

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=30874

or on my Blog :

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...;blogid=96&

take a look and any comments are welcomed

SNOW-MAN206

[SMU]

Philip edens flow pattern anomalies for July:

http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0606.htm

My call was-

In terms of MSLP Anomalies the headlines are-

Central & Northern Europe Substantually greater than Normal especially for the second half-

Greenland Higher than ususal-

Azores Lower than usual

Very pleased however the Greenland call was wrong-

Regional variations-

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0606.htm

Rainfall exceptionally low-

lower than I predicted-

S

[SMU]

Philip Edens Flow patterns for July-

http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0607.htm

Significant anomalies over Central Europe +VE

Significant Anomlies to the West of the UK- Which was the troffing through July ( remember high pressure CANNOT retrograde across the jet)

If there was ever an anomaly chart that epitomises what a Summer with continental plumes looks like this is it-

If you believe this has anything to do with the azores high then I quote Nick F's post-

A valiant effort WIB to try and explain the underlying possible synoptic evolutions so far this summer, and indeed there’s no denying high pressure has indeed dominated over the UK and brought well above average temps and below average rainfall to the UK and much of Europe. But I’m not convinced that the azores high has been such a dominant force as you make out in bringing the hot and dry weather to the UK since summer started. For a start, you base your assumptions only on MSLP tendencies. For signs of strong ridging that is likely to bring a dominant and persistant pattern of dry and increasingly hot weather, the meteorologist tends to look not only MSLP but also - and probably more so in terms of ‘blocking’ in summer the occurence of positive geopotential heights and also air thicknesses at 500 hPa.

Taking in account 500hPa mean heights and anomalies during June and the heights so far this month, point towards any high pressure ‘blocking’ (which can only occur with positive 500hPa heights) having being displaced from it normal position over the azores and East Atlantic by a mid/East Atlantic trough which was present during much of June up until now - thanks to the Bermuda high being further West than usual. The mid/east Atlantic trough became rather stagnant in June and through into July and brought WAA North and this was allowing heights (strong ridging) to build over Europe - rather than ’classic’ ridging from the Azores being the purveyor. True azores ridging is shown by the two charts below from summer ‘76, where MSLP and 500 hPa thickness tendencies (which are roughly collocated with 500hPa heights) indicate strong ridging direct from the Azores rather displaced ridging over continental Europe which was much the case in June this year.

MSLP ridges were indeed present ridging from the Azores as you indicate and the first two to three days of June and upper ridging over W Europe East of the Azores brought a fine start to June, though an upper low was present over the azores:

500 hpa heights and MSLP 1st & 3rd June:

…but it was the subsequent build of strong heights from the South over the continent with slack surface highs over Europe and an upper trough to the South West and West (no azores ridging) that brought hot and dry air North to the UK to bring a high of 32.4C in London on the 12th:

500hPa heights and MSLP 12th June:

… However on the 14th , the long-wave upper trough lurking out West moved East bringing cooler weather with some rain in places, then between the 16th and 17th a brief transitory ridge built from the SW bring a few days of very warm dry weather.

500 hPa heights (no ridging) and MSLP ridge on 15th and 18th:

After the 18th, strong azores ridging was not evident near the UK rather it was mid-Atlantic and displaced West towards Bermuda for the rest of the month, looking at 500 hPa charts. Instead on the 19th, a deep low passed across the UK bringing strong winds , the reminants of TS Alberto. Thereafter, upper troughing was evident over the East Atlantic and Iberia, though this combined with rising heights towards the East brought warm and sometimes humid air North to the South for much of the period, though Northern areas saw more in the way of cloud and rain.

A look at 500 hPa heights during June using reanalysis 500 hPa mean height and positive anomaly charts suggest during June there was predominance of high pressure displaced West over Bermuda allowing troughing over mid to East Atlantic (no Azores ridging) and predominance of ridging (positive heights) North over Europe to the East.

So in summary, June was not so much dominated by azores ridging, rather it was dominated by strong ridging brought about over continental Europe by troughing in the mid and East Atlantic which pumped WAA North which as it descended to the East brought a rather stagnant slow moving ridge-trough-ridge pattern which allowed heat to steadily build into July over Europe. If the Atlantic lows were more active this summer, then the mid/East Atlantic trough and ridge tot he East over W Europe would have been shunted East with somewhat less heat for us.

Into July, the first half of the month was pretty much dominated by upper troughing over the East Atlantic and Iberia, and upper ridging over most of the continent (no azores ridging) this in effect dragged hot and dry air Northwards from North Africa, culminating in the hottest July day record broken on the 19th, there was no Azores ridging leading up to that day, rather an upper ridge ans surface high to the East was present over Europe before that with the trough to the West pumping hot dry air up from North Africa.

500hpa charts for 1st, 6th, 12th July 2006:

Hottest July day on record on 19th:

I will be posting here the August flow pattern which will be more Normalised & to paste mine & Matt hugo's ( METCHECKs senior forecaster ) Winter forecast-

other than that laters-

Most people here have my Email if Req-

S

Edited August 3, 2006 by Steve Murr

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

expect I'm whistling in the wind Damien but could you PLEASE stop using bold, even double bold and double size. We can read and infer our own thoughts when reading your posts.

It really is tiresome all this bold, capitals and double sizing.

In hope

John

Eight smilies??

Member #1 of the Keep Damien Away From Important Buttons, Switches and Knobs Society.

PS: Damien, only kidding. Given the alternative career paths I think we can handle enthusiastically delievered weather data!

Personally I'm looking forward to "A massive Arctic plunge in October." However I would contest that these charts show conclusively mild lovers are going to "weep," as you put it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

You can bet these charts will change before winter though; how much who knows?

Edited August 4, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Damien]

I will be posting here the August flow pattern which will be more Normalised & to paste mine & Matt hugo's ( METCHECKs senior forecaster ) Winter forecast-

WT...?

Metcheck's Matt H. and Steve M. have a winter forecast already!? Can't wait for it!

[summer blizzard]

When will your winter forecast be released, and which factor is driving the current cooler weather?

[SMU]

When will your winter forecast be released, and which factor is driving the current cooler weather?

tail end of Nov- OR if we get a firm date of the METO from Damien maybe the day before to ensure that there is clarity around the fact that if they turned out the same/similar forecast it couldnt be put across that the information from their forecast had been pulled into ours...

S

[Glacier Point]

July data:

200 hPa meridional flow pattern

...amplified across the hemisphere and intitiated over the Pacific - the main reason why in my book the UKMET's Summer Outlook was wrong (allied to strongly +ve AO for June). The +ve anomalies indicate the leading edges of ridges.

200hPa zonal flow pattern

... +ve anomalies in the NW Atlantic showing displaced jet flow and lack of it towards our locale. Also shown quite nicely is the weak westerly phase of the QBO in the western / central Pacific.

500 hPa height anomalies

..... says it all.... no Azores, all +ve anomalies over Germany / Scandinavia.

mslp

.... once again, no real comment necessary...

surface temps

....confirmation of the record heat.

So we add June to July and the story of the Summer verfies with Steve Murr's LRF so far.

One thing I have been surprised at is the ease of removal of the ridge during the early days of August - this has been strong enough to over-ride the feedback loops. In my mind the shifting profile of the Arctic airmass has been the cause here, so August's data should provide some real insight into the Summer pattern. Or could it be that Winter is already making its presence felt ?

GP

[Weather-history]

I got horrible feeling that we could end up with a very good June and it go belly-up afterwards. It has happened quite a few times including June 1992 and even June 1993. Other examples include the Junes of 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Just a gut feeling rather anything else.

Well my gut feeling wasn't quite correct, we had that July! Having said that it has gone belly up somewhat during August.

[STEVE M]

Well my gut feeling wasn't quite correct, we had that July! Having said that it has gone belly up somewhat during August.

Yes, it's amazing just how much a summer can change from one extreme to another so quickly isn't it. As other's have mentioned in this thread (or the Model Discussion thread I can't remember), this summer probably started to early with the first heatwave starting as early as early May this summer.

All in all though, we have still had an exceptional summer this year, particularly for the record breaking hot July. Just a pity August hasn't been as good nor as hot as it usually is or has been in recent year's.

[Weather-history]

All in all though, we have still had an exceptional summer this year, particularly for the record breaking hot July. Just a pity August hasn't been as good nor as hot as it usually is or has been in recent year's.

As on overall assessment, I wouldn't put this summer in the exceptional grouping with 1976 and 1995.

For me, it is the summer equivalent of winter 1981-82, one exceptional month (aka Dec 1981-July 2006), one month with notable weather (Jan 1982-Jun 2006) and one uneventful month (Feb 1982-Aug 2006)

As you can see from my index rating it is going down and down for our area, Steve. Its likely not to be in the top 10 as an overall package. :lol:

Edited August 20, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Rob]

As im only 14 i dont remember many summers, but this one has been the warmest for longest that i can remember, shame about this disappointing August

[summer blizzard]

Steve Murr, will you be producing an Autumn forecast????

[SMU]

Steve Murr, will you be producing an Autumn forecast????

No-

S

[summer blizzard]

Steve Murr, is the August data available for evaluation yet??

Edited September 7, 2006 by summer blizzard