More Doom And Gloom

[Dave J]

I don't think we should still be discussing whether GW is going to have a major impact or not as we seem to enter a neverending debate whereby the pro-AGW people put forward more and more evidence from well-funded research which the anti-AGW instantly dismiss. To put it another way, there is no amount of evidence that will persuade the anti-AGW people that it isn't happening... until of course it's too late.

I try to keep an open mind on the matter- having recently studied Climate Change as part of my degree I understand the atmospheric chemistry and physics behind AGW and the problems encountered with trying to model a complex atmosphere and to understand what impact we may or may not be having.

There are many uncertainties (cloud feedbacks, aerosol feedbacks, future emissions), and we don't even know how sensitive the climate system is to the forcing induced by increased well-mixed greenhouse gases. When looking at global temperatures and how they have changed, there are few reliable observations before 1900 and those that do go back further have undergone change in instrumentation, the change from Fahrenheit to Celcius, changes in site exposure (more urbanised) etc.

We cannot continue to use resources at the rate we currently are (as we're beginning to find out with Petrol prices rising to record levels) and funding needs to be spent on creating a more sustainable society. New buildings should have solar panels, efficient recycling, better public transport, more local produce - instead of getting your strawberries from thousands of miles away- go to the local farm and pick your own, or buy the ones picked from the farm...

There ends my lecture.

The only thing that's confusing is that I thought water/water vapour is the biggest warming agent playing a bigger role in warming than CO2 or is that not right.

Yeah you're right but CO2 has increased much more (percentage-wise, from 275ppm to 380ppm) than H20. A doubling in CO2 will have a greater "radiative forcing" on the climate system than the comparatively small increase in water vapour.

Water vapour could be a positive feedback mechanism because in a warmer world there is more evaporation from the land and sea water stores leading to a greater H20-concentration in the atmosphere (which will then warm the climate further- and lead to more evaporation etc...)

Edited May 25, 2006 by Dave J